Is being favored a good thing?


The Wall Street Journal took the time to talk about how the unexpected has always seemingly conquered in the Notre Dame-Michigan series. I’m not sure if this makes me feel better or worse about the Irish being a three-point favorite on Saturday, as I thought the line would be closer to a touchdown for the Irish.

One of the most unpredictable rivalries in college football is Notre
Dame-Michigan. It’s so unpredictable it’s actually predictable: Expect
the favorite to struggle. Over the last 20 matchups, the favorite in
the Notre Dame-Michigan game is 8-11-1. Against the point spread, the
favorite is 3-17, meaning it failed to win by the margin set by Las
Vegas oddsmakers almost every time. By contrast, the favorite in the
Florida-Florida State game has won 16 of the last 20, covering the
spread 14 times.

The Journal points the finger mostly at Michigan, since they have been favored in 14 of the last 20 games against Notre Dame. (That’s an incredible stat…)

Just for fun, here’s to looking back at the last ten years of games, with some quick thoughts on what happened.

2008: ND 35, UM 17: The Irish jumped on Michigan early, but the game got a little too close for comfort, until six Wolverines turnovers finally killed the Maize and blue.

2007: UM 38, ND 0: A dirty, dirty, dirty shellacking. Not much else to say.

2006: UM 47, ND 21: An especially bitter pill to swallow. We made an epic 283-mile dash to the Mandalay sportsbook for an epic day of football games. The opening series said it all: Quinn incomplete to Samardzija. Quinn pick six by Prescott Burgess… Away we go. The taunting from the bachelor party dressed in matching Michigan jerseys was enough to make you wish that beer bottle throwing was an Olympic sport.

2005: ND 17, UM 10: Pure joy. This was one of those games where you had that sneaking suspicion the boys could pull it off, and Michigan fans never even saw it coming. I can still picture the look on my Michigan buddy as he was nearly in tears after Chad Henne fumbled the ball away on the ND one-yard-line.

2004: ND 28, UM 20: After getting shocked by BYU 20-17, the Irish once again upset Michigan. Then coach Ty Willingham uttered a bizarre line when he admitted that many people expected his team to start 1-1, they just had the games backwards.

2003: UM 38, ND 0: Ugh, ugh, ugh. The first of the 38-0 defeats. Wasn’t one enough?

2002: ND 25, UM 23: Another huge knockoff win for the Irish. Remember how good Shane Walton was? That team had some black magic voodoo going…

1999: UM 26, ND 22: A year after shocking the defending National Champs, the Irish lost to some a heartbreaker to a young skinny punk named Tom Brady, who was fighting to keep his job against Drew Henson. (Leave it to Michigan to almost screw up Tom Brady…) The Irish still could’ve won this one if they handled their timeouts better. 

Kelly confident Robinson will rebound

Notre Dame v Florida State

Corey Robinson‘s season was already off to a slow start. And that was before a difficult night at Clemson. The junior receiver came into last weekend with only four catches, held out against UMass after a pregame tweak of his knee put a scare into the Irish.

Robinson’s knee checked out fine. But mentally, it appears that the sure-handed junior is struggling.

Just before halftime against the Tigers, Robinson failed to reel in a long catch that would’ve given the Irish a much-needed touchdown heading into half. Early in the fourth quarter, a high throw from DeShone Kizer on the Irish’s first failed two-point conversion play slid through Robinson’s hands. Made worse was a mental mistake by Robinson, the Irish needing to use one of their second half timeouts when the junior wasn’t on the field.

Coached hard on the sideline by Brian Kelly and coached up by his position coach Mike Denbrock (as we saw on both Showtime and Fighting Irish Media’s ICON), the staff is doing it’s best to get Robinson’s confidence back.

With some wondering if Robinson’s struggles should open the door for talented freshman Equanimeous St. Brown, Kelly talked about their belief that the junior will return to form.

“Corey Robinson is going to get the job done. I had a very lengthy conversation with him yesterday,” Kelly said Tuesday. “I believe in Corey. Corey’s got to believe in himself, and he will. He’s got to go attack the football. He’s letting the football come to him. He’s letting it eat him up a little bit, but I believe in Corey.”

There’s no better place to showcase that belief than against Navy. The Midshipmen don’t have a defender physically capable of matching up with the 6-foot-5 Robinson, who will likely face his share of single coverage with Will Fuller likely demanding safety help.

Then it’s just a matter of Robinson showing the hands and confidence that made him one of last year’s most consistent performers.

“Once he starts attacking the football, I think we’re going to see somebody that can make the plays that we expect him to make,” Kelly said. “So I’m optimistic that we’re going to see the guy that we need to see on Saturday.”

And in that corner… The Navy Midshipmen

Keenan Reynolds, Jamar Summers

The theme of this week’s game might very well be mutual respect. But if Notre Dame is going to get their season back on track, they’ll need to very quickly get past any sort of reverence they have for Ken Niumatalolo and the Navy Midshipmen and look for any way to beat them.

Sandwiched between showdowns against Clemson and USC, Navy comes to town, one of the below-the-radar unbeaten teams in the country. With option superstar Keenan Reynolds in the final year of a career that is already one of the most prolific in college football history, the Irish defense goes into triple-option mode for the second time in this young season, asked to once again find an answer for an attack that not many people have solved.

Helping us to prepare for the Midshipmen is the play-by-play voice of Navy athletics, Pete Medhurst. Covering Navy football since 1997, Pete was kind enough to get us ready for the 89th meeting between Notre Dame and the Naval Academy.

Hope you enjoy.


Lost in the misery Notre Dame fans feel after the Irish’s undefeated hopes washed away in Clemson last weekend, is that the Navy team coming to South Bend is really, really good. I know it’s early, but you’ve been covering the Midshipmen for a long time. Can you rank where this team stacks up compared to some of the others you’ve seen?

I think its the best overall Navy team, considering the play of both units right now and special teams as well. The defense is giving up  just 15 points a game, and based on the prowess of the offense, that’s going to lead to a lot of victories if you play at that level.


Is Keenan Reynolds the best triple-option QB in Navy history? As someone who has watched his career evolve, can you speak to his improvements as a quarterback and a player? How important has he been to the evolution of this program?

I believe production speaks for itself. Good health could make him the leading touchdown scorer of all-time in the sport. He’s a coach on the field. Speaks like a coach, has a want to get better. Each day is a mission for him and the unit to get better and they hold themselves to a high standard to meet each day, he’s the leader of that group.



Joining the American Conference was a huge decision, but one that looks to be paying dividends. Have you noticed a difference in the program now that they’re chasing a conference title?

Coaches say it is. They have been met with quality response on the road recruiting. We get to states that are important footprints for us and just adds another goal where our players can be rewarded for their hard work. The conference has been very, very, good so far this year.


Defensively, this game should stress Navy. Notre Dame’s big-play potential is the best of the Brian Kelly era. (The Irish already have more 50-plus yard touchdowns than they’ve had in any other season under Kelly.)

Takeaways and preventing big plays seem to be a tenet of a Buddy Green defense. Are those the big keys for the Midshipmen defensively?

No question this is by far the fastest team Notre Dame has ever had. I go all the way back to the great Lindsay Nelson days when I used to watch the Notre Dame football report every Sunday morning. They can attack you anywhere at anytime with several people. Double cover one, they have three others in the formation who can beat you any play. Brian has put together a great plan and his coaches have delivered great recruits to the program. Many teams can’t survive an injury to the QB, but they have.

Mids have turned teams over this year and that’s a huge key for any defense. With Dale Pehrson taking over the defense (note: Green is taking a sabbatical to recover from major neck surgery this season) those goals have not changed. Eleven guys getting to the football, ball comes out, you have a great chance to get it!


Notre Dame had success earlier this season against Georgia Tech, and Brian Kelly spent a gigantic portion of his offseason preparing for the triple-option, going as far as recruiting a walk-on option quarterback who runs an option-specific scout team.

Do you think the success the Irish defense had against Paul Johnson’s triple-option will help this weekend? Or do you see subtle, but important differences between what Ken Niumatalolo does than his predecessor?

Coach Kelly is a good football coach. After we beat them at the Meadowlands, 35-17, you sensed, he was going to work hard to find a solution because for them to achieve their goals, they have to beat us.

Im not sure how many huge differences their are in our two offenses, one though is the QB. His ability to get Navy into the right play is huge no matter how a team lines up. Defensive personnel has improved in a huge way for Notre Dame too. They have quality people who can run and get to the ball. Last couple have been barn burners. Hopefully Saturday can be the same.