Breaking down the Eagles

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My apologies for not getting to a opponent preview this week. I could give you a dozen different excuses, but I’m going with “my dog ate it.” It was a really great one, too. Instead, I offer you two different previews — one from the guys at Rakes of Mallows and the other from the guys at Blue-Gray Sky. I was actually about to email Bill from Eagle in Atlanta, because I’ve been reading his site in my RSS for a few months, but just as I was about to do it, I noticed he had already done a better Q&A with BGS and it’s much easier to link to an article about Boston College than to actually force myself to think about BC.

Ah… BC. The thorn in the side of Irish fans everywhere, even if it weren’t for the 6 straight wins against the Irish. What to make of this team, that is now coached by Magnum PI Frank Spaziani? Going into this season, it was pretty much assumed that the Eagles would be mediocre, having lost their top two defensive tackles, their All-American middle linebacker to cancer, and having no quarterback to speak of. Yet here’s BC, chugging along at 5-2 after trouncing former coach Tom O’Brien’s NC State Wolfpack and all of a sudden looking like a team that could give Notre Dame all it can handle.

What can the Irish expect? Well, let’s take a look at what BC has done this season, and maybe that’ll help us draw some conclusions.

Week One and Two: Cupcakes for everyone!

The Eagles opened up the season with a cakewalk against Northeastern. Putting Northeastern on the schedule makes Western Michigan look like the ’85 Bears. After the 54-0 blanking by BC, Northeastern has gone on to get beaten by at least double digits to Maine, Youngstown State, Villanova (by 49 points!), Holy Cross, and William & Mary. BC would’ve been better served playing their scout team, and the victory did nothing to settle the QB race between Justin Tuggle and former minor-league farmhand Dave Shinskie. Week two brought the Kent State Golden Flashes, which sounds like a bad pharmaceutical commercial joke. The Eagles scored 24 points in the first half, sprinted out to a 34 point lead after three quarters and both Shinskie and Tuggle continued to split time, neither taking the reins on the job.

Week Three: Reality served cold.

It doesn’t get much uglier for the BC offense. They managed only 4 first downs and 54 total yards for the entire game. The Eagles managed one first down the first 43 minutes of the game — and that was by penalty. Tuggle played his way out of a job going 4 for 20 with 3 interceptions, and Boston College looked like a team that ran went for a leisure jog for the first two weeks of the season instead of playing football games. Going on the road into a hostile environment proved fatal.

Week Four and Five: Building confidence

And now we begin to see the pesky nature of the Eagles. After putting nothing together offensively against Clemson, Spaziani goes to the bullpen (I had to) and starts Shinskie. The 25-year-old freshman responds with a great performance, going 18 of 29 for 228 yards and 3 TD passes, and the Eagles hold on for dear life to win an overtime thriller against Wake Forest. 

Shinskie continued his solid play with another nice day against the Florida State Seminoles, and Montel Harris had his coming out party this season with 25 carries for 179 yards including a long touchdown run in the 4th quarter after the Seminoles had charged back to tie the game. It’s tough to say anything negative about a win against Florida State, but for the 2nd week in a row the Eagles let an opponent get back into a game that was in hand (sound familiar, Irish fans?) before pulling it out.

Week Six: Falling off the horse

It’s tough to find any positives about BC’s performance in Blacksburg. The Hokies were up 34-0 at halftime, and once again the Eagle offense looked punchless, managing only two first downs and 28 yards through 3 quarters. Shinkie went 1 for 12 throwing the ball before being pulled for freshman quarterback Mike Marscovetra, and Bud Foster’s V-Tech defense strangled both the running and passing attack of Boston College, only giving up yardage once the game was well in hand in the 4th.

Week Seven: Getting back up

The Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Eagles offense brought good things last week for Boston College as Montel Harris ran for over 100 yards in the first half and a record-breaking 264 for the day. Shinksie played an efficient game, and the passing game got a few big plays as well, racking up 480 total yards of offense and forcing three turnovers.

So where does that get us?

Boston College has played three good/decent teams, and they’ve been dominated by two of them. (I’m calling Wake Forest good, just for the sake of doing it.) Their victory over NC State could look impressive, but taking a closer look at the Wolfpack, you’ll see that they’ve managed to beat Pitt and… well, that’s about it.

Yet here’s what we know about the Irish. They have an ability to play to their opponents level pretty regularly and have managed to make every quarterback they’ve played (with the exception of Colin Kaepernick) look like an All-American. Quite literally. The past five passers Notre Dame has faced put up a QB efficiency rating of 146.30, nearly 10 full points better than Colt McCoy. The 8.5 yards per attempt these QBs are putting up against the woeful Irish passing defense would be good for 13th in the country, meaning we’re much more likely to see the Shinskie that rates 150.49 at home than the Shinskie that has a negative -11 QB rating on the road, even if Notre Dame stadium is 890 miles away from the friendly confines of Chestnut Hill.

What should we expect this week? A relatively easy victory by a Notre Dame football team that’s in a different class than the undermanned Boston College Eagles. Yet we could say that nearly every year, and Notre Dame fans know where that’s gotten them over the past twenty or so years. Still, Jon Tenuta has a great knowledge of both head coach Frank Spaziani and offensive coordinator Gary Tranquill, so you’d hope that the defensive troops would be well-informed on what their opponents are going to do. Still, it’s hard not to think that the Irish will be coming out flat, and if you look at the discussion this week around the net, there’s still a visible hangover from the deflating loss to the Trojans last weekend.

But if the Irish can’t get up for a game against Boston College, who can they get up for? And while we’ve got no idea what kind of team the Eagles have, any time you’ve got a running back that’s putting up numbers like Montel Harris, and a quarterback with full use of his throwing arm, you’ll have to hold your breath and see what happens come Saturday. 

Spring positions to watch for revelations: DL & WR

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 05: Jerry Tillery #99 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackles Jerrod Heard #13 of the Texas Longhorns for a loss of yards during the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on September 5, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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If quarterback, rover and the early enrollees could be Notre Dame fans’ springtime Christmas thrills, what positions present as potential spots of coal?

Three former Irish players were invited to next week’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis: quarterback DeShone Kizer, defensive tackle Jarron Jones and defensive end Isaac Rochell. Losing two consistent defensive linemen leaves this year’s unit with some questions. Jones and Rochell combined for 100 tackles, 18 for loss and three sacks last season. Notre Dame’s returning defensive linemen combined to total 111 tackles and only 5.5 tackles for loss. To be clear, sacks are not included in that latter list because no returning defensive linemen recorded one. Among the returnees, junior tackle Jerry Tillery (37 tackles, three for loss) and senior end Andrew Trumbetti (26, 0.5) contributed solidly alongside the two NFL prospects.

This dearth of known and reliable linemen is a large part of why the potential transfer of Clemson graduate defensive tackle Scott Pagano is so intriguing. Pagano would immediately be a favorite to start, and if not that, at least rotate in heavily.

For now, though, Pagano remains a theoretical

By the end of spring practice, who already on campus will emerge alongside Tillery and Trumbetti in the Irish front? Senior ends Jay Hayes (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) and Jonathon Bonner (nine tackles) seem the most-likely candidates … aside from former four-star recruit and now rising sophomore Daelin Hayes. In his debut season, D. Hayes finished with 11 tackles.

Look for senior tackle Daniel Cage (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) to establish himself as Tillery’s immediate backup this spring, but that spot in the rotation will be up for competition all over again once four-star tackle Darnell Ewell (Lake Taylor High School; Norfolk, Va.) arrives on campus in the fall. His size and quickness should play right into new defensive coordinator Mike Elko’s system.

Equanimeous and Who?
Not only did Notre Dame bring in a graduate transfer at receiver in former Michigan wideout Freddy Canteen, but it has also already received the commitments of two four-star receivers in the 2018 recruiting class. The continued emphasis on the position reflects the lack of bona fide game-breakers currently on the roster.

Junior Equanimeous St. Brown established himself as the top Irish threat in 2016, and he should shine only further with junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush targeting him. Classmates often amplify each other’s success, simply due to the added shared reps innate to joining practice at the same time. With Torii Hunter, Jr., now pursuing a professional baseball career, who will prevent the secondary from focusing all its energies on St. Brown?

Canteen will not be with Notre Dame in the spring, as he does not graduate from Michigan until April. That will give a clear shot for the likes of juniors Chris Finke, C.J. Sanders and Miles Boykin, and sophomores Kevin Stepherson, Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool to establish themselves. Did that say “clear” shot? It should probably read, “a chance to separate from the crowd.”

If a genuine threat does not line up opposite St. Brown, his explosiveness will likely be greatly reduced by focused defensive scheming. Wimbush will need another target before 2018.

Of course, here is where one should acknowledge the millennia-tested fact: Coal under pressure becomes diamonds.

2016 Notre Dame’s win expectancy was 7.2
Sports Illustrated’s Chris Johnson named the Irish as his team most likely to dramatically improve its record in 2017. Johnson’s thinking is based, at least in part, on Notre Dame’s second-order win total having been 7.2 in 2016, compared to the four wins the Irish actually walked away with. That discrepancy was the largest in the country.

Second-order win totals reflect how many points a team should have scored and allowed based on offensive and defensive stats. In theory, this shines a light on how luck and chance factored into results. Naturally, losing seven games by one possession will often be reflected by a higher second-order win total.

“Notre Dame’s win-loss record belied a solid, if imperfect, squad that just couldn’t pull out close games…” Johnson writes. “The Irish may not get back into College Football Playoff contention in 2017, but they’re bound to post a few more Ws because of reversion to the mean.”

Admittedly, the small sample size of a football season reduces the applicability of metrics such as second- and third-order wins when compared to baseball and basketball.

Jones becomes Mack
A quick piece of housekeeping: Apparently junior tight end Alizé Jones has changed his name to Alizé Mack.

While Notre Dame’s roster may not reflect that change yet, it is reasonable to expect it will after its next update. The football program has consistently respected the intricacies of players’ name preferences. Tai-ler Jones becoming TJ Jones jumps to mind, for example.

Anyways, hopefully noting Mack’s name change here might reduce some confusion down the line. Probably not. How many readers possibly read to the actual bottom of an article? But hey, in good faith.

WR Lenzy makes 11th commitment, brings speed to Irish

lenzy
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At what point does an impressive recruiting roll become something more? When does it become a harbinger of things to come, even if not for a few seasons? How many notable commitments in a row establishes a class as special?

If the answer to any of the above is 11 commitments by the end of February, including five within two weeks, then Notre Dame is there following consensus four-star athlete Braden Lenzy’s announcement Thursday evening.

The Tigard High School (Portland, Ore) receiver/cornerback chose the Irish over offers from USC, Oregon and Michigan State, among a litany of others. In all, nine Pac-12 schools chased Lenzy—and a 10th, Washington, had shown interest—per rivals.com.

Lenzy will fit the leading 2018 need voiced by Irish coach Brian Kelly three weeks ago on National Signing Day 2017.

“Elite speed on offense will be a primary goal for us,” Kelly said Feb. 1. “Guys that can change the game on one possession. I think we’ll see that… We want a couple of home run hitters. We don’t care if they’re Darren Sproles’s size. We’re going to come off the board in terms of profile. We want some guys that can change the game on offense with elite speed.”

At 6-foot, 175 pounds, Lenzy is taller than Sproles’s 5-foot-6, but it is still his speed that drew Notre Dame’s interest.

“They made it clear they want me to do kickoff return and use me as a deep threat across the field,” he told Irish Illustrated. “Just being kind of an athlete, similar to what I’ve been doing already in high school, just on a bigger scale with a quarterback that can throw it a lot farther.”

Presuming Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush is that arm in 2018, throwing great distances should not be an issue. Between Lenzy and fellow 2018 commit Micah Jones, covering those distances should be a reasonable request, as well.

Lenzy brings Notre Dame’s class of 2018 to 11, including eight four-stars according to Rivals’ rating system. Current scholarship projections indicate the class will not be a large one, meaning the Irish coaching staff has already garnered the commitments of more than half the class. Once again, though, Kelly’s sentiment regarding recruiting timing should be remembered.

“We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

SWARBRICK’S TAKE ON RECRUITING
Kelly credited Director of Athletics Jack Swarbrick with much assistance in securing the country’s No. 13 recruiting class in 2017. A refresher on those comments:

“In a lot of instances, [Swarbrick] had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it’s going,” Kelly said. “There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future.”

Swarbrick did not dispute the factual nature of any of that in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, but he did contest the need for praising what he saw as part of his job, one of the preferred parts of his job, at that.

“I can’t say anything about this year felt all that different,” Swarbrick told Star reporter Laken Litman. “Some asked questions about the future of the program and can we compete for a national championship. And I would talk about the elements of the program we were focused on improving.”

Swarbrick and Litman discussed a number of items in the second-half of the interview released by the Star, including Notre Dame’s facilities, a possible early signing period in football and if the Oct. 8, 2016, game against North Carolina State should have been played. Spoiler: No. Then why was it? Go check it out.

Swarbrick also told Litman he likes to write in his free time.

“I tend to think strategically with a pen in my hand.” Swarbrick added he is currently scribbling away on where he thinks college athletics are headed.

This scribe, for one, would be most interested in skimming those legal pads.

Will Wimbush, Elko and the early enrollees surprise in spring practice?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 26: Fans congratulate Brandon Wimbush #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after he ran for a 58 yard touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Stadium on September 26, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Umass 62-27.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Exactly 59 days from today, the Irish will take the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Sure, they will be playing against themselves, but nonetheless, it will be somewhat-competitive football played in gold helmets.

For timing context, exactly 59 days ago, you looked beneath the Christmas tree to learn if Santa Claus left you season tickets, socks or coal. I got socks. They had some of that extra cushioning, so I considered them a suitable treat.

Whether you care about my argyles or not (you don’t), for many the Blue-Gold Game and Christmas morning hold similar excitement. That fact is apparently why Notre Dame director of athletics Jack Swarbrick does not concern himself when groups of alumni publicly lament his decisions, or lack thereof.

“I never worry about that,” Swarbirck told the Indianapolis Star in an exclusive interview you really should read. Go on, click the link, it will open in a new tab. You can come right back here when you are done.

“The hardest job in athletics is trying to generate passion in your program. If that sort of stuff bothers you, you can’t be the athletic director, head coach or the quarterback at Notre Dame.”

That very passion will undoubtedly lead to frame-by-frame discussions of video snippets from spring practice, parsing of each and every word Irish coach Brian Kelly says in quick interviews after those practices, and extreme pessimism and optimism about the 2017 season.

In the Christmas spirit, what toys could bring the must excitement during the spring unwrapping? Personally, the gift I was unsure of always brought the most joy. I would rather open an unexpected book than know about a charcoal-gray suit. In other words, at least for today, let’s look past the offensive line, the running backs and the inside linebackers. Instead, let’s look forward to learning about… (more…)

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)