Opponent preview: Stanford Cardinal

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Round four of the opponent previews, leading us into Purdue week. Suggestions and comments welcome. Check out the previews for Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State.

The Overview:

No coach has seen his stock rise as quickly as Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh learned the college game moonlighting as an unpaid assistant under his father Jack Harbaugh at Western Kentucky University during his final eight seasons as an NFL quarterback.  After two seasons as an assistant coach in the NFL, Harbaugh took to the Pioneer Football League in 2004, running the I-AA University of San Diego Toreros for three seasons, his final two campaigns ending with 11-1 records. His three-year climb at Stanford has been more gradual, but he officially put the Cardinal back on the radar with an upset win over the 2007 USC Trojans, a 24-23 victory by the 41 point underdog, one of the greatest statistical upsets of all time. Harbaugh’s reputation is seemingly greater than his achievements, his high water 2009 season only resulted in an 8-5 season, even with impressive victories over then #8 Oregon and #9 USC, putting up 50-plus points on each. In 2010, the Cardinal return most of the high-powered offense, though the loss of Toby Gerhart could take the engine out of the machine. The defense, which will now employ a 3-4 philosophy, is likely what will determine whether or not Harbaugh’s squad is ready to take the leap to the next level.

Last time against the Irish:

While many suspected that Charlie Weis was a dead man walking, the Irish, led by a black-and-blue Jimmy Clausen and a one-man-army performance from Golden Tate, did their best to win in Palo Alto. Even though the Irish had an 11-point lead in the third quarter, the defense couldn’t get a stop when they needed it, and Toby Gerhart nearly turned another dominant late November performance against the Irish into a Heisman Trophy, coming up mere votes short. Without Armando Allen and Kyle Rudolph the Irish offense needed to be perfect, and between a first-possession fumble from then running back Theo Riddick and a stuffed 3rd and 2 in crunch time to Robert Hughes, 38 points wasn’t enough to protect a horrendous defense.

Said then head coach Charlie Weis after his final game:

“There’s a bunch of 22, 23-year-old men right there finishing out their career losing the last four games. They feel miserable and I feel miserable for them.”

Degree of Difficulty:

Of the 12 opponents, I rank Stanford as the seventh most difficult game on the schedule. Here’s the rankings so far:

       4. Michigan Wolverines
       5. Michigan State Spartans
       7. Stanford Cardinal
       8. Purdue Boilermakers

You could make a valid argument that any of the four teams listed should be ranked from 4th to 8th, and I actually expect Stanford to be extremely tough on offense with Andrew Luck running the show after a strong debut.

The Match-up:

For all the credit Stanford got last season, they were an incredibly flawed football team. Protecting freshman quarterback Andrew Luck, the Cardinal were content to ride All-American Toby Gerhart, and work play-action passes off of a smash-mouth running game. In Luck, Stanford has a rising star quarterback, and even without Gerhart returning the Cardinal have plenty of offensive weapons returning. The strength of the team, the offensive line, is returning four starters, though All-American right tackle Chris Marinelli needs replacing.

On defense, wholesale changes are in store for Stanford, which replaced nearly their entire defensive staff. Enter Vic Fangio, who last coached in college back in 1983, and has spent the last 24 years in the NFL, including 11 years as a defensive coordinator. He’ll be implementing a 3-4 defensive system, and doing so with a new secondary coach and a new defensive line coach, former Notre Dame assistant Randy Hart. Hart will look to Sione Fua to anchor the defensive line, as well as leading sacker Thomas Keiser. The linebacking corps will employ ironman Owen Marecic, who is a three-time Pac-10 honorable mention fullback. Harbaugh called him “the perfectly engineered football player.” The secondary returns three of four starters, losing their best player in three-year starter Bo McNally. That said, the passing defense ranked 110th in the nation, so continuity might not be the best thing for the Cardinal.

How the Irish will win:

The key to winning is scoring the most points, and the Irish will happily oblige against a downtrodden defense. Even if Vic Fangio came from the Baltimore Ravens, it’ll be hard to turn any of Stanford’s defenders into Ray Lewis or Ed Reed. Without Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck won’t face eight-man fronts, and the mistake-free freshman All-American will be baited into some bad decisions by an opportunistic Notre Dame secondary, sitting back in a zone defense and bringing pressure from unexpected places. Kyle Rudolph gets his chance to shine against Stanford, missing his opportunity to dominate last season’s contest at The Farm.

How the Irish will lose:

The legs of Andrew Luck turn out to be a problem, as the Stanford quarterback consistently buys time inside and out of the pocket, finding favorite targets Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu to score some much needed early points. The depth chart at Stanford is finally maturing and its that depth that helps slow down the Irish offense, with special teams coach Brian Polian and Hart providing some advanced scouting on Notre Dame’s personnel. This could be the last time Harbaugh faces the Irish with Stanford, trading the red and white for the maize and blue of his alma mater after the season.

Gut Feeling:

The key to beating Stanford will be playing defense, and I’ve got a lot more confidence in Bob Diaco’s new unit than the team the Irish trotted out last season. While Andrew Luck could be ascending to the top echelon of quarterbacks in college football, I’ve got a feeling that the Irish are going to “out athlete” Stanford, and run the Cardinal defense ragged. 

Path to the Draft: Will Fuller

SOUTH BEND, IN - NOVEMBER 14: Will Fuller #7 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish rushes against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the third quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on November 14, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 28-7. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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Part two of a seven-part series looking back at Notre Dame’s impressive 2016 draft class. 

 

Will Fuller
No. 21 overall to the Houston Texans

For as much flack as Will Fuller took from the moment he declared for the NFL Draft until his named was called after Houston traded up to land him with the 21st pick, most of it missed the biggest story of them all. We were talking about Will Fuller.

Perhaps Notre Dame’s least likely All-American since Shane Walton ditched his soccer cleats for the gridiron, Fuller was an unlikely superstar, all but a recruiting afterthought who had a mostly anonymous freshman season before two years of productivity never seen in South Bend.

While Fuller ended up a four-star prospect, he was a regional recruit if there ever was one. Pulled away from a Penn State program that was amidst chaos, Fuller picked Notre Dame over other offers from schools like Boston College, UMass, Rutgers, Temple and Delaware. Like Ronnie Stanley, he was another invite to the Semper Fidelis All-American game—a second-tier All-Star game— but on Signing Day, Kelly sounded like he knew that his staff had landed a big-time talent.

“He’s also a young man that we believe that if there’s a guy that flew under the radar a little bit, it was William Fuller,” Kelly said. “The thing that really clearly stands out is his ball skills. He can run and catch the football. Any time that we got a chance to observe him, he was running and catching, just terrific ball skills. We think as he develops physically, he also has that speed, that top‑end speed that can obviously impact football games.”

Kelly’s crystal ball couldn’t have looked more prescient than it did in that moment. While he only managed to make six catches as a freshman, the 46-yard deep ball Fuller reeled in from Tommy Rees after play-action was a sign of things to come.

Fuller’s development was hardly just an arrow up proposition. The drops that had so many draft analysts talking about his hands plagued him throughout both his prolific sophomore and junior seasons. But even amidst that self-inflicted inconsistency, the game-to-game productivity is astonishing when you look at the two-season run Fuller put together.

You can learn a lot about how little analysts have seen Fuller by the criticisms they lay on him. Ted Ginn? Former top-ten bust Troy Williamson? Fuller’s hardly a one-trick pony—playing opposite DeAndre Hopkins won’t just make life easier for the Texans’ Pro Bowler, it’ll allow Fuller to see man coverage and get back to terrorizing defenses in the screen game as well.

Selected at No. 21 as just the second receiver off the board, Fuller’s decision to leave Notre Dame after just his third season looks to be a great one. With a blazing forty time and his lack of size not changing with another season in college football, Fuller struck while the iron was hot after two of the best receiving seasons we’ve ever seen.

Not bad for a skinny kid out of the Philadelphia Catholic League.

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Looking for more discussion on Notre Dame’s 2016 NFL Draft (as well as a bunch of other stuff), here’s John Walters and I chopping it up on our latest episode of Blown Coverage. 

 

Path to the draft: Ronnie Stanley

CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 28:  Ronnie Stanley of Notre Dame holds up a jersey with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being picked #6 overall by the Baltimore Ravens during the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University on April 28, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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Your name didn’t have to be Mel Kiper or Mike Mayock to understand that from the moment Jaylon Smith stepped foot on campus at Notre Dame he was destined to be an early-round NFL draft pick. But as the dust settles on the Irish’s impressive 2016 draft haul, a look back at the developmental process of the team’s seven draft picks serves as a wonderful testament to Brian Kelly and the program he has built.

Notre Dame’s draftees come in all shapes and sizes. Fifth-year seniors like Nick Martin. Three-and-out stars like Jaylon Smith and Will Fuller. Consistent four-year performers like Sheldon Day and one-year wonders like C.J. Prosise.

But each followed a unique path to the NFL, one that was fostered by a coaching staff that allowed each athlete to develop at their own pace and ascend into a role where an NFL team thought highly enough to select each player in the first 103 picks of the draft.

Let’s take a trip down (recent) memory lane, as we connect the dots from recruitment, development and playing career as we look at Notre Dame’s seven success stories.

 

Ronnie Stanley
No. 6 overall to Baltimore Ravens

The first offensive lineman selected in the 2016 draft, Stanley’s recruitment saw the Irish find their first bit of success at Bishop Gorman High School, leading the way to Nicco Fertitta and Alizé Jones. A four-star prospect who hovered between a Top 100 and Top 250 player depending on the evaluation, Stanley was invited to the Semper Fidelis All-Star game, a second-tier game that all but signified his status outside of the elite, at least on the recruiting circuit.

That’s not how Notre Dame’s coaching staff felt about him, though.

“He’s probably as gifted of an offensive linemen that we have seen in many years,” Kelly said on Signing Day in 2012.

Stanley proved early that Kelly wasn’t blowing smoke. He saw the field in 2012’s first two games, earning reps against Navy and Michigan before he suffered an elbow injury that allowed him to save a year of eligibility.

But even offseason surgery didn’t prevent Stanley from stepping into the starting lineup, flipping to right tackle and playing 13 games in a very successful sophomore campaign across from first rounder Zack Martin.

Even though Stanley was blossoming into one of college football’s best players, we still openly wondered who would slide to fill Martin’s left tackle spot. (That’s how it goes with offensive linemen, their work only truly appreciated by those with either inside information or a coach’s eye of evaluation.)

In his opening comments before spring practice in 2014, Kelly named Steve Elmer, Christian Lombard and Mike McGlinchey as candidates along with Stanley, so it wasn’t necessarily a lock for the staff yet either. But it took just a few practices for the Las Vegas native to solidify his spot on the left side.

Stanley’s first season at left tackle was so solid that some wondered if there’d be two. While some of the online analysts saw Stanley as a potentially elite draft pick, the NFL Advisory Board came back with a second-round grade, perhaps all Stanley needed as he made his decision to stick around for his senior season. Still, Notre Dame took no chance. Kelly, Harry Hiestand and Jack Swarbrick traveled to Las Vegas to sell Stanley on the virtues of a final season in South Bend.

It worked. With a healthy offseason and weight-room gains needed, Stanley stuck to the script and played a mostly anonymous 2015 season. That was a very good thing—only along the offensive line can All-American honors and being named Offensive Player of the Year be considered ho-hum.

Add in the vanilla off-the-field life, and an elite academic profile that’s a comfort to teams investing millions in a potential cornerstone, Stanley’s placement as a Top 10 pick should have never been in doubt. While he lacked the dominance at Notre Dame that we saw from Zack Martin, he possesses athleticism and a body that Martin wasn’t given—a big reason the Cowboys shifted him inside to guard from day one.

Picked instead of Laremy Tunsil amidst a bizarre scenario that’ll go down as one of the draft’s cautionary tales, John Harbaugh talked openly about his relationship with Harry Hiestand and the comfort that came from Notre Dame’s offensive line coach as they pulled the trigger on Stanley. And Stanley, almost epitomizing that faith that the Ravens showed, all but embodied that when he told Joe Flacco in his first visit to Baltimore that he celebrated his selection by heading back to his hotel room and going to sleep.

Counted on by Baltimore to be a key piece of the puzzle as the Ravens look to rebuild an offensive line tasked with protecting a franchise quarterback in his prime, now it’s up to Notre Dame’s highest draft pick since Rick Mirer to continue his ascent.

Five Irish players sign UFA contracts

Matthias Farley
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Notre Dame had seven players selected in the 2016 NFL Draft, trailing only Ohio State, Clemson and UCLA on the weekend tally. But after the draft finished, the Irish had five more players get their shot at playing on Sundays.

Chris Brown signed with the Dallas Cowboys. Romeo Okwara will begin his career with the New York Giants. Matthias Farley and Amir Carlisle signed contracts with the Arizona Cardinal. Elijah Shumate agreed to a contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After missing two seasons, Ishaq Williams will be at Giants rookie camp next weekend as well, working as a tryout player. Expect Jarrett Grace to receive similar opportunities.

Count me among those that thought both Brown and Okwara would hear their names called. Brown’s senior season, not to mention his intriguing measureables, had some projecting him as early as the fifth round.

Okwara, still 20 years old and fresh off leading Notre Dame in sacks in back-to-back seasons, intrigued a lot of teams with his ability to play both defensive end and outside linebacker. He’ll get a chance to make the Giants—the team didn’t draft a defensive end after selecting just one last year, and they’re in desperate need of pass rushers.

Both Shumate and Farley feel like contenders to earn a spot on rosters, both because of their versatility and special teams skills. Shumate played nickel back as a freshman and improved greatly at safety during 2015. Farley bounced around everywhere and was Notre Dame’s special teams captain.

Carlisle might fit a similar mold. He played running back, receiver and returned kicks and punts throughout his college career. With a 4.4 during Notre Dame’s Pro Day, he likely showed the Cardinals enough to take a shot, and now he’ll join an offense with Michael Floyd and Troy Niklas.

 

Robertson picks Cal over Notre Dame, UGA

Demetris Robertson
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Demetris Robertson‘s decision wasn’t trending in Notre Dame’s direction. But those that expected the Savannah star athlete to pick the in-state Bulldogs were in for a surprise when Robertson chose Cal on Sunday afternoon.

Notre Dame’s pursuit of the five-star athlete, recruited to play outside receiver and hopefully replace Will Fuller, likely ended Sunday afternoon with Robertson making the surprise decision to take his substantial talents to Berkeley. And give credit to Robertson for doing what he said all along—picking a school that’ll give him the chance to earn an exceptional education and likely contribute from Day One.

“I am excited to take my talents to the University of California, Berkeley. The first reason is that the education was a big part of my decision. I wanted to keep that foundation,” Robertson said, per CFT. “When I went there, it felt like home. Me and the coaching staff have a great relationship. That’s where I felt were the best of all things for me.”

Adding one final twist in all of this is that Robertson has no letter-of-intent to sign. Because he’s blown three months through Signing Day, Robertson merely enrolls at a college when the time comes. That means until then, Kirby Smart and the Georgia staff will continue to sell Robertson on staying home and helping the Dawgs rebuild. Smart visited with Robertson Saturday night and had multiple assistant coaches at his track meet this weekend.

Summer school begins in June for Notre Dame. Their freshman receiving class looks complete with early enrollee Kevin Stepherson and soon-to-arrive pass-catchers Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool.