Opponent preview: Navy Midshipmen

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Eight and counting for series of previews profiling Notre Dame’s 2010 opponents. Check out the rest of them with Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt and Western Michigan.

The Overview:

Make no mistake, this is no longer a friendly rivalry. With Navy stunning the Irish 23-21 at Notre Dame stadium last season, the Midshipmen now have won two consecutive games at Notre Dame stadium, after a half-century of ineptitude against the Irish. Making things even more heated, was head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s comments in the postgame press conference, calling out the Notre Dame coaching staff’s game plan. Under Charlie Weis, Notre Dame treated Navy reverentially, leveling the playing field psychologically, and possibly doing the Midshipmen a favor by treating an inferior football team (talent-wise) with too much respect. The senior class, with two losses to Navy in three years (and a narrow escape in 2008) will likely come out looking to at least settle the series. While everybody realizes it now, with 12 returning starters including Heisman dark horse Ricky Dobbs, this game will be a true test for the Irish.

Last time against the Irish:

If the Michigan loss eats at the stomach’s of Notre Dame fans, the Navy loss was the one that broke their heart. The Irish found a way to lose the game without punting, a statistical anomaly made all the more ridiculous when you consider the Irish neither punted nor scored a point in the first half. Niumatalolo’s gameplan was orchestrated to perfection behind a running attack that absolutely killed the Irish defense, who gave up 348 yards rushing on 6.1 yards per carry. Notre Dame’s red zone execution, which including baffling play-calling, terrible execution, critical turnovers and missed field goals started the Irish on the freefall that would end their season.

Said Niumatalolo after the game:

“I really hope this doesn’t come across wrong, but I think the thing
that helped us this year was last year because we knew that they’d line
up the same way. We didn’t execute very well last year, and coming into
this year they did a great job against us last year defensively, so we
had a pretty good clue that they were going to come back and do the same
things as they did last year, and we had a few things. We were
expecting that same defense that we saw last year.”

Degree of Difficulty:

Of the 12 opponents, I rank Navy as the ninth-toughest game on the schedule.

      3. Boston College Eagles
      4. Michigan Wolverines
      5. Michigan State Spartans
      6. Pitt Panthers
      7. Stanford Cardinal
      8. Purdue Boilermakers
      9. Navy Midshipmen
      12. Western Michigan Broncos

Only when you look at Navy as the 9th hardest game on the schedule do you start to understand that this slate isn’t as easy as it’s cracked up to be. There’s absolutely nothing positive the Irish get out of playing Navy anymore. Beat them, you’re supposed to. Lose? You’re packing your bags and coaching the offense in Kansas City. If Notre Dame comes out flat at the Meadowlands, I’ve extremely overestimated this coaching staff’s ability to motivate.

The Match-up:

The Irish defensive will live and die by how they stop star quarterback Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs had one of the more impressive statistical seasons in the country last year, both rushing and throwing for 1,000 yards. He only threw the ball three times against the Irish, but of one was a crucial third quarter strike for 52 yards that all but broke the Irish’s back and pushed Navy’s lead to 21-7. Also rejoining Dobbs is fullback Vince Murray, who absolutely shredded the Irish defense with the dive play, rumbling for 158 yards on only 14 carries. The 3-4 defense will help when playing against the vaunted Navy triple-option, but the Irish would be wise to key on Dobbs and Murray if they want to win.

The defense loses stand-out linebacker and Irish nemesis Ram Vela, but returns a veteran group. Three of four members in the Midshipmen secondary return, including both starting safeties. One name you’ll likely hear plenty of is rover Wyatt Middleton, who led the team in interceptions. For the Irish offense to succeed, they’ll need to play mistake-free football as well as attack the Navy defense on both the ground and through the air. Notre Dame racked up 502 yards of offense last year, so moving the ball wasn’t the problem, executing when it mattered, whether on field goals or in the red zone will be the key for success. 

How the Irish will win:

The Irish will beat Navy by stopping the run and playing solid fundamental football. Regardless of whether or not the coaching staff had a good gameplan, the linebackers failed to tackle the fullback, a mortal sin when facing an option attack like Navy’s. With the athletes the Irish have at linebacker, and run-stuffers like Ian Williams and Manti Te’o in the middle, there’s no way that Navy can have the same success on the ground as the year before, especially if Bob Diaco has properly coached his defense. Offensively, the Irish will win with a solid run-pass ratio, and by keeping a handle on the football. Navy knew they needed to steal possessions and starting with Robby Paris’ first-half fumble, they did just enough to keep the clock in their favor and the ball in their hands. In the brand-new Meadowlands, the Irish should start a new winning streak.

How the Irish will lose:

Take last year’s blueprint, wash and repeat. Want to beat a football team with superior talent? Control the clock, win the turnover battle, and force an offense to become one-dimensional. Navy did all of that with an option offense second to none, and they’ve got all the pieces coming back to do it again. Ricky Dobbs is an elite college football player, the defense is opportunistic and good enough. If Navy wins this match-up in late October, the Irish will most likely put another opposing quarterback on the front-burner for the Heisman.

Gut Feeling:

Remember all those Irish fans who thought Charlie Weis meant no more losing to teams like Purdue, Michigan State, and other seemingly inferior opponents? Well, I’ve got a feeling by late October Irish fans will be feeling the same way about Brian Kelly. There’s too much motivation out there for the Irish starters to lose to Navy again, and the coaching change will allow this team to step back from the reverential treatment of the Midshipmen and treat Navy the way they should be treated: like a dangerous but undermanned opponent. Paced by a high-powered running attack, the Irish will take care of business, beating the Midshipmen by double-digits.  

Report: Corey Holmes set to transfer

Irish Illustrated / Matt Cashore
Matt Cashore / Irish Illustrated
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Receiver Corey Holmes is transferring from Notre Dame. The junior, who has two seasons of eligibility remaining, will look for a new program after earning his degree this summer, Tom Loy of Irish247 reports.

Holmes told Irish247:

“It’s just the best decision for me. I’m graduating this summer and I’m just going to find the best fit for me to finish things up.”

Even after a strong spring, Holmes saw little action this season, though he played extensively against USC in the season finale. He had four catches against the Trojans, a large part of his 11 on the year, also his career total.

That Holmes wasn’t able to find a consistent spot in the rotation is likely a big reason why he’s looking for a new opportunity. After opening eyes after posting a 4.42 40-yard dash during spring drills, the Irish coaching staff looked for a way to get Holmes onto the field. But after losing reps at the X receiver on the outside, Holmes bounced inside and out, never finding a regular spot in the rotation, playing behind Torii Hunter Jr. and Kevin Stepherson on the outside and CJ Sanders and Chris Finke in the slot.

Holmes has two seasons of eligibility remaining, redshirting his sophomore season. Because he’ll earn his degree this summer, he’ll be able to play immediately next year. Irish 247 reports that Holmes is looking at Miami, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona and North Carolina, though he’ll have a semester to find other fits.

 

Mailbag: All about BK

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 17:  (L-R) Sam Kohler #29, head coach Brian Kelly, Grace Kelly and Hunter Bivin #70 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish sing the alma mater following a loss to the Michigan State Spartans of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium on September 17, 2016 in South Bend, Indiana.  Michigan State defeated Notre Dame 36-28. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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Welcome to a fairly action-packed Mailbag. Why didn’t one of you guys remind me to do these more often?

This one, as the title suggests, is all about Brian Kelly.

 

@chrise384: Do you think that silence from Swarbrick this week means anything or do you think it’s status quo and BK is back in ’17?

I think Swarbrick’s been silent because there’s nothing else to say. He made his comment to ESPN that Kelly would be back in 2017. Why would it benefit him to say anything else?

Kelly also made comments—10 feet away from his boss—that he’d be back and doesn’t want to go anywhere. So other than releasing a 2:37 a.m. tweet reiterating Kelly’s intentions—and essentially calling B.S. on the reports that BK was looking to get out—there’s no reason to respond to the noise, when there’s a ton of work to do and big decisions still to make.

Speaking of those…

 

Domer521: Keith – The banquet is next Friday evening. Do you expect any announcements regarding recruits or DC/assistant coaches before then?

I don’t. For a variety of reasons, I think Kelly is waiting to make any formal moves on his staff until after that evening. And in reality, any college assistant that’s going to come to Notre Dame is probably coaching in a bowl game, and won’t leave his program until after that game is played.

(That doesn’t mean that BK isn’t lining things up. I expect that he is.)

So while the idea of getting a coordinator on hand now might be ideal, the reality of the situation is that you need someone ready to hit the recruiting trail after the New Year, taking the world by storm for that final month and closing stretch until Signing Day.

 

@GhostAKG: Many are saying Charlie Strong for our new DC. Is that good/realistic? And what are some of the names you’ve been hearing more?

I was one of the people to speculate, but the more you think about it the less it makes sense. Charlie Strong is a head coach. And a good one. Any return to South Bend would feel incredibly temporary, with the circus following every job vacancy that opens up—with fans and media speculating, “Is this the one to get Strong back to the head job?”

That’s not a headache BK and company would want to deal with, especially when you consider how much this collective fanbase sweats out coordinator hires or parallel moves.

(Remember when Tony Alford left after Signing Day and it felt like someone died around here?)

Charlie Strong is a good man and a good coach. But that’s the wrong type of hire for ND. I think he’ll probably take a year off to examine the landscape, continue to cash those fat checks coming from Austin, and then get back into it next year.

 

irishwilliamsport:

Keith, I know this is an exercise in futility but I’ll ask a mailbag question… What would you guess BK’s combined job approval rating is among all fan bases ?

You’ve got me. No clue. Does anybody have a good job approval rating?

At this point, I don’t think anybody’s approval rating is all that high at 4-8, to the point that Jack Swarbrick—a guy who might be the most powerful and intelligent athletic director in the country—has seen fans turn on him as well.

I wasn’t quite sure what you were getting at with your question about “all fan bases,” but maybe you were talking about the perception of Kelly both inside and out of the program? If so, I thought Colin Cowherd’s take on Kelly, at least from a national perspective and a guy who watches a lot of college football, is interesting. (It’s a perspective that’s pretty common, I must say.)

 

codenamegee: 

What has Brian Kelly done to make you think he can win a championship at Notre Dame. Looking at his FBS coaching resume his teams have never beaten a top 5 team. I just don’t get why everyone thinks he’s a good coach. Notre Dame is poorly coached (too many mental breakdowns), offense lacks imagination (Running plays are too predictable, no tail back screens, no delay draws, lack of counters and traps). Yet all I hear how Brian Kelly is this great coach or Brian Kelly is a great offensive mind. If he is, he hasn’t showed it since he’s been in South Bend.

Well, first off—and this is a biggie—he played for one. So let’s not ignore that. And he was maybe one play away from getting invited to playing for another last year, a game-winning, last-second field goal against Stanford knocking the Irish from the playoff.

Now I get that playing for one isn’t the same as winning one. And when it comes to comparing this program to Alabama’s, frankly I don’t think Notre Dame has a chance to get to that level until Nick Saban retires… or the NCAA finds something illegal in his program. So if that’s the bar you’ll set, I’m not sure he can get there. And I’m not sure Notre Dame is willing to do what it takes to get there. And frankly, that’s something I’m okay with—especially as you

Last point for you—have you really heard anybody calling Brian Kelly a good coach lately? Is anybody following Notre Dame saying Kelly’s done a good job this season? Has the coach himself even said that? Have I?

Listen, I get it. Losing seasons are terrible. They are really painful and this one came out of nowhere, making it worse. Then throw on top of that just how close the games were—each week a decision here or there, or a blown assignment or missed opportunity sometimes the singular difference between a win and a loss.

That all adds up. And it certainly will carry into next season, a direct reflection on the coach’s job status, regardless of the length of his remaining contract.

 

irishdog80: Can Brian Kelly truly survive and thrive as head coach at Notre Dame or is his best opportunity a fresh start at a new school or pro team?

I don’t think Kelly would’ve stayed if he didn’t think he could thrive. He could get another job if he wanted one. And I don’t think Swarbrick would’ve let him stick around if he didn’t have comfort that the football program—a team that he spends more time around than anybody outside the players and the coaches—was in good hands, and that this was a bad season, not a bad program.

That’s a really good question though, Irishdog. We’ve seen Bob Stoops rally. We’ve seen David Shaw bounce back, though neither pulled a four-win season. And for now, I think Kelly can, too. But it’s worth pointing out that the rumor everybody seemed to be fired up about, three-win & nine-loss Mark Dantonio, would be a huge coaching upgrade over Kelly is funny, considering Dantonio just took a College Football Playoff team and drove it off a cliff.

 

 

irishcatholic16: With reports that Brian Kelly is seeking job opportunities outside of Notre Dame then shortly after saying that he’s committed to Notre Dame along with him bolting Cincinnati in the same fashion (saying he would stay then leaving), do you think he will lose the trust of his team and could we see more decommits as a result? Will the team trust him knowing that he isn’t fully committed?

I have no belief that those reports are true. And I have no reason to think that Kelly’s team—seven years in—would have their trust of the man leading the program hinging on reports from national media pundits.

Are we still talking about the way he left Cincinnati? Because it sure looked to me an awful lot like every coach leaves their program—Tom Herman just the latest example of a coach left in an unwinnable situation, with the media ready to pounce by asking unanswerable questions.

Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t doubt that Kelly’s agent was talking to teams. He was. He’s the same guy that reps Herman, and a handful of other top-shelf coaches. But that’s what agents do. They talk about their clients, 99% of the time without the client ever having any idea he’s doing it.

 

 

bjc378:

I’ll ask the obvious question. Sorry, I didn’t listen to the podcast.

Do you (still) think BK should be the Irish coach next year? If so, how long of a leash do you give him next year and what changes would you demand? If not, or if he decides to coach elsewhere, what’s your wish list look like?

No apology necessary, first off, on the podcast. It’s supplemental, but listen for John Walters’ wisdom, it’s basically like telling your friends you subscribe to Newsweek.

As for BK, yes I do think he should be the coach next year. I don’t think Notre Dame is a program that should fire someone for a single bad season—period. I didn’t like it when they did it to Ty (in retrospect it was the right thing to do), and I wouldn’t like it if they did it to Kelly, a year off a ten-win season and a Fiesta Bowl appearance.

(Also worth noting, they don’t do it in hockey, basketball, baseball, soccer, or any other sport.)

As for the leash? That’s hard to say. I think we’ll know quite a bit about this team at the end of next September. They’ll have played Temple (the potential AAC champ coached by one of the nation’s underrated head coaches in Matt Rhule), Georgia, Boston College, Michigan State and—don’t laugh—Miami (Ohio), who has got it going now under Chuck Martin. So if that month goes sideways and the season does too, I won’t have any problem with Swarbrick trying to upgrade and make a change.

As for the wish list? No clue. Not at this point. I’ll take Jon Gruden off of it, so cross him off before anybody asks me. And any other NFL head coach.

But I’d start by looking at someone like Willie Taggart, a young Harbaugh protege who coached at Stanford and has now done good work as a head coach at both Western Kentucky and USF.

Drue Tranquill named first-team Academic All-American

Drue Tranquill
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Drue Tranquill was named a first-team Academic All-American. The junior safety, who returned from his second major knee injury during his three-year career, earned the honors after posting a 3.74 GPA in mechanical engineering.

Tranquill is Notre Dame’s first academic All-American since Corey Robinson earned the honor after the 2014 season. He finished second on the team in tackles with 79 and lead the team in solo stops with 52. He also had two TFLs and an interception.

Tranquill is Notre Dame’s 60th Academic All-American, the third-most of any school behind Nebraska and Penn State. He’s active in the university community, serving as a mentor for the Core Leadership Team for Lifeworks Ministry, and is a member of Notre Dame Christian Athletes. He is a also member of the Student-Athlete Advisory Council (SAAC) and Rosenthal Leadership Academy.

 

Postseason Mailbag: Now Open

SAN ANTONIO, TX - NOVEMBER 12: Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly leads his team onto the field before the start of their game against Army in a NCAA college football game at the Alamodome on November 12, 2016 in San Antonio, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)
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It’s been too long. Let’s talk about the season, the decisions ahead and where Notre Dame stands after its nightmare of a 2016 season.

Drop your questions on Twitter @KeithArnold or in the comments below.

 

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If you’re interested in hearing my recap on the USC game and where Notre Dame’s goes now that the season is over, give a listen to the latest episode of Blown Coverage, with Newsweek’s John Walters.