Run/Pass mix a difficult balancing act

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If you’re looking for a debate among Notre Dame football fans, there’s none more enjoyable than the run/pass balance in Brian Kelly’s offensive system. While people have to be pleased with the steady progress from quarterback Dayne Crist, the transformation of Armando Allen during his senior season has made him the offensive MVP of the first-half of the season. It’s that breakthrough that has people begging for more Allen to be infused into the offense, a seemingly logical request. 

Earlier today, the guys at NDNation had an editorial on winning via the run game, with the premise being that the Irish probably cost themselves a chance at having a much better than .500 record with their unwillingness to run the football.

From The Rock Report:

More troubling is Kelly’s dogged adherence to pass the ball with a team
that can’t execute the passing game yet at the level needed to succeed. 
If the purpose is to develop the offense at the expense of winning
games, that’s a mistake.  Kelly seems to be force feeding the passing
spread despite his own rhetoric about the importance of a run game…

That the offense is sputtering sans an effective run game and putting
inordinate pressure on the defense is no surprise, what is surprising
(or disappointing) is Kelly’s failure to adjust.  As Coach Molnar said,
when this offense goes three and out, it’s ugly to watch.  Fits and
starts on offense are the norm in year one of a new system with a new
quarterback and Notre Dame has better options.

Against Pittsburgh, the offense looked very good while mixing the
pass and the run.  Not Holtzian, but certainly good enough to beat the
teams on our schedule save Stanford. The mystery is why Kelly defaulted
back to the pass when the play mix was working so well.  Notre Dame
performed well when not put in obvious passing downs and poorly when
forced into passing situations.  The difference was stark in terms of
yards per play and points…

What’s frustrating is that Notre Dame could be looking at a BCS game if
Kelly had followed through on his plan.  When Crist went down against
Michigan, Kelly put in Rees who promptly threw an interception.  I have
little doubt that with a commitment to running the ball,  Notre Dame
would be sitting at 5-1, which is also a backhanded compliment, btw.

In theory, I would agree with just about everything written. Generally speaking, having a solid running game is good for business.

Going hand in hand with the game-mix complaint is criticism of Kelly coming from a camp that deems him a “system coach.” Their argument contends that Kelly’s forcing a team that’s better suited to do other things into being a pass-first, spread attack. Again, on the surface level, there’s merit to this as well. 

That said, there are some easy rebuttals out there if you’re looking for them. Take for one, Western Michigan coach Bill Cubit, who had this to say about Kelly and his Notre Dame team:

“I think what he does better than almost every other spread guy out
there, he utilizes his talent and he does different things within his
system,” Cubit said. “He’s played with a lot of different quarterbacks.
Some guys try to put a round peg in a square hole, ‘I’m going to run my
system no matter what,’ and I don’t think he does that.”

Cubit’s a nuanced head coach that’s battled against Kelly and broken down coaches’ tape, noticing that the Irish attack isn’t what Kelly did with his offenses at Cincinnati and Central Michigan.

Another rebuttal comes courtesy of some statistical work done by Anthony Pilcher at the tremendous website ClashmoreMike.com. Anthony broke every drive this year, specifically looking at the run/pass mix:

      Touchdown drives this year:
      
8.5 yards per play
      
39.8/60.3 run/pass split
      
77.5 percent completion rate
      
7.3 yards per first down play
      
39.7/60.3 run/pass split on first down
      
5.4 yards per first down run
      
8.4 yards per first down pass
      
5.1-yard average distance on third down

      Scoring (touchdown and field goal) drives this year:
      
7.5 yards per play
      
37/63 run/pass split
      
68.4 percent completion rate
      
7.7 yards per first down play
      
37.4/62.6 run/pass split on first down
      
6.2 yards per first down run
      
8.6 yards per first down pass
      
5.9-yard average distance on third down

      Non-scoring drives this year:
      
3.5 yards per play
      
39.9/60.1 run/pass split
      
45.5 percent completion rate
      
335 yards per first down play
      
50.5/49.5 run/pass split on first down
      
3.3 yards per first down run
      
3.0 yards per first down pass
      
8.7-yard average distance on third down

I think most would be surprised that Kelly’s scoring drives have a 40/60 run-pass mix, and his non-scoring drives do a better job with balance —  a near-perfect 50/50 run-pass mix. Basically — you can argue that the Irish shouldn’t be running the ball more. 

That said, if you’re looking for a reason why the Irish offense isn’t scoring, it’s their success rate on first down. The Irish average over seven yards per first down on drives where they score, and only three yards on drives that they don’t. The result is an ugly average of 3rd and 8 on non-scoring drives and a much more manageable average of 3rd and 5 when they do.

Boiled down quite simply, the Irish are suffering from an execution problem, not a balance one, something just about every Irish fan — and especially Brian Kelly — has noticed.  

Kizer named MVP at annual ECHOES awards

echoes
@NDFootball Twitter
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DeShone Kizer was named the Monogram Club’s Most Valuable Player for the 2016 season at the 96th annual Notre Dame football awards banquet. Kizer was voted team MVP by his teammates, after throwing for 2,925 yards and 26 touchdowns and rushing for 472 yards and eight scores.

He was one of 15 players honored with an award at the “ECHOES,” with the following accolades being given:

Equanimeous St. Brown, Offensive Player of the Year.
James Onwualu, Defensive Player of the Year
Greer Martini, Next Man In award
Drue Tranquill, Rockne Student-Athlete Award
Cole Luke, Nick Pietrosante Award
Isaac Rochell, Lineman of the Year
Quenton Nelson, Offensive Lineman of the Year
Scott Daly, Special Teams Player of the Year
Alex Bars, Newcomer of the Year, Offense
Nyles Morgan, Newcomer of the Year, Defense
Ben Stuttman, Scout Team Player of the Year, Offense
Jonathan Jones, Scout Team Player of the Year, Defense
Mark Harrell, Father Lange Iron Cross
Tyler Newsome, Irish Around the Bend

 

 

Notre Dame names 7 captains for 2017 team

SOUTH BEND, IN - OCTOBER 17: Quenton Nelson #56 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrates after a 10-yard touchdown reception by Corey Robinson against the USC Trojans in the fourth quarter of the game at Notre Dame Stadium on October 17, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
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Notre Dame named seven captains for the 2017 season, the most to wear the ‘C’ in school history. Quarterback DeShone Kizer, linebackers Greer Martini and Nyles Morgan, offensive linemen Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson, safety Drue Tranquill and walk-on receiver Austin Webster were all given the honor.

McGlinchey returns in the role, the 22nd different two-time captain in the program’s history. New to the job are the rest, including Kizer, who has yet to make a decision on if he’ll return for 2017 yet.

After worries about the team’s leadership heading into the 2016, the naming of captains in the immediate aftermath of the season is a change—Brian Kelly not naming his team’s official leaders into August training camp last year. It’s not an unprecedented move for Kelly (he named Harrison Smith and Michael Floyd team captains at the banquet following the 2010 season), though it points to some changes—some subtle, others not—that’ll likely take hold after a four-loss season.

Webster, a rising senior reserve wide receiver from California who has yet to register a stat in a Notre Dame uniform, made his debut as a sophomore in 2015 against UMass, is the first active walk-on to receive the honor.

 

Irish land blue-chip OL Aaron Banks

aaron-banks
Tom Loy, Irish 247
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Notre Dame received the commitment of 4-star offensive tackle Aaron Banks on Friday afternoon. Picking the Irish over a national offer list that included Michigan, Tennessee, and local programs USC and UCLA, the 6-foot-7, 335-pound Banks reminded all that even if the Irish only won four games this season, Harry Hiestand is still one of the premier offensive line coaches in the country.

Banks made the commitment from a ceremony at his high school in El Cerrito, California. And when he picked the Irish, he added to Notre Dame’s impressive offensive line haul, joining Dillan Gibbons, Joshua Lugg and Robert Hainsey — a key piece of the puzzle moving forward.

Banks is a consensus 4-star recruit and a Top 200 prospect. He took an official visit to Michigan in November, but has been a long-time target of Hiestand’s, visiting South Bend in September and welcoming Brian Kelly and Hiestand into his home after the USC game.

As a big recruiting weekend gets started at Notre Dame, the annual Echoes Awards will serve as the beginning of an important home stretch for a program without a bowl game. As Kelly still looks to lock in a defensive coordinator, not to mention other staff changes still in the air, Banks takes back some of the lost momentum, a key commitment heading into a holiday dead period before a furious finish leading into the first Wednesday in February.

Banks is No. 18 in the Irish recruiting class. He’s an early-enrollee, ready to hit campus within weeks and compete on the interior of the offensive line during spring ball.

Zaire says thank you to Notre Dame

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - SEPTEMBER 12: Quarterback Malik Zaire #8 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish rushes past defensive end Mike Moore #32 of the Virginia Cavaliers in the third quarter at Scott Stadium on September 12, 2015 in Charlottesville, Virginia. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish won, 34-27. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Getty
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Big week for The Observer. Not just for its advertising revenues, but for the classy gesture that outgoing senior quarterback Malik Zaire made this week.

Thursday’s edition included a letter to the editor from Zaire, who took to the student newspaper not to make headlines around the internet, but rather to thank the university for his experience in South Bend.

While Zaire’s time at Notre Dame is drawing to a close, he will leave as a proud alum. So while he’ll play football next season at another university, Zaire wrote the following in Thursday’s issue:

Dear Notre Dame students and staff,

My life changed for the better the moment I stepped onto the University of Notre Dame’s beautiful campus. The one goal I had set in my mind to achieve was to become a better man, a Notre Dame man. After growing through many trials and triumphs, the thing I’ve learned most from my experience was that if you don’t believe in yourself first, then no one else will. I believed in becoming a better man and succeeding through any circumstance, and I can say that I’ve truly accomplished that. I often refer to the famous quote from the movie “Catch Me If You Can” that was well put by Frank Abagnale:

“Two little mice fell in a bucket of cream. The first mouse quickly gave up and drowned. The second mouse wouldn’t quit. He struggled so hard that eventually he churned that cream into butter and crawled out.”

I’ve put my heart, soul and passion into the University, the football program, the South Bend community and the Irish community worldwide. I have the unbelievable honor to represent this University to the fullest as a student and soon-to-be alumni. Thank you to the amazing students and staff that I’ve met through the years for helping me grow into the person I’ve always wanted to be. I love the Irish and will always be an Irish alum no matter where I go! I look forward to keeping in touch. Let’s change the world!

Go Irish!

Malik Zaire

Senior
Dec. 7

Zaire is expected to compete for a starting quarterback job next year as a graduate transfer. He’s reportedly taken a visit to Wisconsin and plans to visit North Carolina as well, just two of several programs on the radar as Zaire looks to step in and win a starting Power 5 job.