David Bruton, David Grimes, and Maurice Crum

The case for 9-3

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When addressing the media after his worst coaching loss in nearly two full seasons, Brian Kelly made it clear that the season could go two ways, after starting with three loses in their first four games.

“There’s going to be a lot of 1-3 football teams across the country,” Kelly said after losing to Stanford. “Some
are going to finish 1-11, some are going to be 8 or 9-3. It’s what you
decide to do from here on out.”

Since then, the Irish have righted the ship and rattled off three straight wins to up their record to 4-3 as they prepare to face Navy. And Kelly’s hope that the Irish could be one of those select teams that turn their season around is on the right track.

The remaining schedule for the Irish:

Oct 23 — Navy (at Meadowlands)
Oct 30 — Tulsa (Home)
Nov 13 — Utah (Home)
Nov 20 — Army (at Yankee Stadium)
Nov 27 — Southern Cal (Away)

At the beginning of the season, various websites did win probability polls that determined confidence in the Irish winning games. Here’s what two websites — NDNation.com and ClashmoreMike.com came up with:

OPPONENT WIN PROBABILITY
Navy                      84% (CM) 86% (ND)
Tulsa                     92% (CM) 92% (ND)
Utah                      69% (CM) 64% (ND)
Army                     96% (CM) 94% (ND)
USC                      53% (CM) 48% (ND)

By this logic, the Irish should be favorites to win in every game, except for USC, giving Notre Dame fans hope that the best-case scenario still has a few chances of happening.

The Irish did salvage victories against Boston College and Pitt, two of the games that fans predicted to be some of the most difficult on the slate. Unfortunately, they also lost games against Michigan, Michigan State, and Stanford, three other games that people predicted the Irish should (slighty) win.

If you checked an Irish fan’s gut, you’d think that they’d feel confident that the Irish would beat Navy, Tulsa, and Army, and probably be 50-50 to beat both Utah and USC. Noted college football predictor Jeff Sagarin ranks both Utah and USC within his top 20, though Utah is facing the Irish at home after a bye week, and also has played the 110th best schedule thus far this year, an indicator that we’re just not sure how good the Utes really are.

The Irish head to Southern Cal on Thanksgiving Saturday, facing a Trojan team that lost last-second games to both Washington and Stanford, and finally put together a convincing victory against Cal last weekend after playing uneven football in the first seven weeks of the season. There’s no evidence that points to the Irish having a better than 50/50 chance after the last decade against the Trojans, but USC has a razor-thin roster and a coaching staff that has hardly proven itself as adept as the previous regime in Troy.

One incredibly interesting way of looking at the Irish’s chances of running the table comes courtesy of Brian Fremeau. Fremeau created the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a “rating system based on drive-based Game Efficiency data
that rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes
losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams.”

How does Fremeau rank the Irish chances of running the table?

Well, not so good:

Final Record Win Likelihoods:

9-3 3.3%

8-4 22.7%

7-5 39.1%

6-6 26.9%

5-7 or worse 8.0%

Fremeau gives the Irish only a 3.3 percent chance of running the table, and a one in four chance of winning eight games. He ranks the Irish as the 38th best team right now with a strength-of-schedule at No. 15 to date. His ratings likely take into consideration the inconsistencies that have plagued the Irish offense thus far, struggles that make beating teams like Navy, Utah, and USC statistically less possible.

(They also probably don’t take into consideration injuries to Kyle Rudolph and Theo Riddick, and the possibility that Michael Floyd might also miss some time.)

Crunching some numbers, I feel like Fremeau might be selling the Irish a tad bit short. My rudimentary number-crunching and mediocre statistical skills makes me feel like there’s about a 20 percent chance that the Irish walk into bowl season with a 9-3 record, something Irish fans should feel happy about after starting the year in a massive hole thanks to some two heart-breaking losses. That said, your case for a nine win season is far stronger if you trust your gut feeling rather than any mathematical breakdown.

Not many Irish fans have trusted their gut lately, a product of disappointing losses and underachievement over the years. If Kelly could pull this one off, running the table and beating the numbers that so often have defined the Irish football team, it’d have plenty of people very happy — coaches, fans, and administrators alike.

2018 LB Ovie Oghoufo commits to Notre Dame

Oghoufo Rivals
Rivals / Yahoo Sports
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Notre Dame’s recruiting momentum continues to build as linebacker Ovie Oghoufo is the latest commitment to the Irish program. An incredible fifth member of the 2018 class, Oghoufo made the news official on Friday, picking the Irish over Michigan, Michigan State, Boston College, Kentucky and a handful of other early offers.

The Farmington, Michigan native made the news official via Twitter and also spoke with Irish247’s Tom Loy about the decision. Oghoufo was offered earlier in the summer and was on campus again this week.

 

Give current freshman Khalid Kareem an assist for landing the 6-foot-3, 210-pound linebacker, who spent his visit in South Bend hearing from the fellow Michigander about the virtues of attending Notre Dame.

Irish247’s Tom Loy has the scoop.

“He’s practically my brother,” Oghoufo told Irish 247 of his relationship with Kareem. “I spent basically the whole day with him when I went up there for camp. We reunited. It was a great time with him. When we talked, he told me that if I go to Notre Dame, it’s a 40-year decision, not just a four-year decision. He says the caches are the best and the opportunities are great.”

That Oghoufo worked out for coaches says quite a bit about the early offer and commitment. This is a linebacker who hasn’t played his junior season of high school football yet, but was incredibly productive as a sophomore at Harrison High School.

Oghoufo joins quarterback Phil Jurkovec, running back Markese Stepp, and front seven defenders Jayson and Justin Ademilola in the 2018 class.

 

 

Irish A-to-Z: Colin McGovern

Colin McGovern 247
Irish247
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Senior lineman Colin McGovern provides the type of experience that’ll come in handy on an offensive line that some believe is the finest in college football, but still has some depth concerns. McGovern’s versatility—he’s in the conversation at right guard while likely providing depth behind Alex Bars at right tackle—is something we’ve seen in flashes since the Illinois native first came to campus. But finding a path to the field has been difficult, especially as poorly timed injuries struck.

Injuries or not, McGovern’s personnel battles made winning any job a herculean task. With Zack Martin, Ronnie Stanley and now Mike McGlinchey all profiling to be first round tackles, a shift inside was probably the most prudent to seeing playing time. Now as a fourth-year veteran preparing for his third season of eligibility, McGovern will enter fall camp hoping to win a starting guard job, but ready to fill in where needed.

 

COLIN MCGOVERN
6’4.5″, 315 lbs.
Senior, No. 62, OL

 

RECRUITING PROFILE

McGovern picked Notre Dame over offers from Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, and a ton of other elite programs, a national recruit from the Chicago suburbs. He was better liked by some recruiting services than others, and his position was somewhat a question mark, too. Listed as a tackle, Notre Dame saw him as a guard prospect.

 

 

PLAYING CAREER

Freshman Season (2013): Did not see action.

Sophomore Season (2014): Played in two games as a reserve guard, seeing action against both Rice and Michigan.

Junior Season (2015): Made eight appearances, playing mostly on special teams. Played 16 snaps at right guard against UMass.

 

WHAT WE SAID LAST YEAR

Notre Dame’s tackles stayed upright last season and when Quenton Nelson went down it was Alex Bars who filled in.

Right now, the weak spot on Notre Dame’s offensive line is the depth at tackle and center. I’m not convinced that Hunter Bivin is the best option if someone goes down on the outside, and that’s a place where McGovern might be able to thrive.

Brian Kelly went out of his way to discuss McGovern this spring, praising both his size and ability, and talking about his opportunity to cross-train across the guard and tackle depth chart.

It’ll likely take someone going down for McGovern to get his chance, but if he has a strong camp, I get the feeling that he and Alex Bars will ascend to the key backups at tackle, while McGovern could also make a case for being a candidate to be sixth-or-seventh man.

 

FUTURE POTENTIAL

The road to the field seems very limited for McGovern if he can’t win the right guard job. That’ll likely come into focus in August, especially after the staff gets a look at Tommy Kraemer and the progress made by fellow candidates Hunter Bivin and Tristen Hoge.

McGovern has the feet and athleticism to survive at tackle, something that’ll keep him in the mix behind Alex Bars. A fifth year is likely if he’s able to provide some stability on the edge, knowing that McGlinchey isn’t likely coming back for a fifth year if he’s as good as we all think he is.

That’s not flashy upside. But serving as an understudy on one of the best offensive lines in the country is no small feat.

 

CRYSTAL BALL

I’ve always thought McGovern was a solid football player, but he just hasn’t been able to break through. Last spring’s concussion really seemed to set him back in a position battle that seemed up for grabs—we’ll see if that’s still the case entering fall camp.

A veteran without much experience is likely going to take over for Steve Elmer. It’s just tough to say it’ll be McGovern, when it looked like Hunter Bivin had emerged at the end of spring practice. McGovern’s experience and versatility will be where his value is established.

 

2016’s Irish A-to-Z
Josh Adams
Josh Barajas
Alex Bars
Asmar Bilal
Hunter Bivin
Grant Blankenship
Jonathan Bonner
Ian Book
Parker Boudreaux
Miles Boykin
Justin Brent
Devin Butler
Jimmy Byrne
Daniel Cage
Chase Claypool
Nick Coleman
Te’von Coney
Shaun Crawford
Scott Daly
Micah Dew-Treadway
Liam Eichenberg
Jalen Elliott
Nicco Feritta
Tarean Folston
Mark Harrell
Daelin Hayes
Jay Hayes
Tristen Hoge
Corey Holmes
Torii Hunter Jr.
Alizé Jones
Jamir Jones
Jarron Jones
Jonathan Jones
Tony Jones Jr.
Khalid Kareem
DeShone Kizer
Julian Love
Tyler Luatua
Cole Luke
Greer Martini
Jacob Matuska
Mike McGlinchey

Irish release Shamrock Series uniforms

ND Helmet
Notre Dame Sports Information
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When Notre Dame takes on Army in the Shamrock Series in San Antonio, they’ll be doing it with a uniform that pays tribute to the university’s relationship with the United States military.

Released on Thursday via social media, Notre Dame’s alternate uniform will feature an Army green jersey with a gold helmet and pants. Built into the uniform, both on the helmet and the shoulder of the jersey is the famous stone carving from above the side door of the Basilica of Sacred Heart, featuring the iconic “God, Country, Notre Dame.”

 

 

Irish A-to-Z: Mike McGlinchey

McGlinchey
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Notre Dame has another star at left tackle, with Mike McGlinchey following in the footsteps of first rounders Zack Martin and Ronnie Stanley. With the nasty disposition of Martin and the athletic traits of Stanley, McGlinchey has the promise to be the best one yet for Harry Hiestand—and that’s saying something.

Of course, doing it is the next step.

For all the accolades that’ll be heaped on McGlinchey this preseason, he’s just a 14-game starter who’ll be playing his first football at left tackle. But paired with Quenton Nelson on the left side of center, the physically dominant duo has the ability to impact the game like few other blocking combos, two giants that match up physically with the best duos playing on Sundays.

 

MIKE MCGLINCHEY
6’7.5″, 310 lbs.
Senior, No. 68, OT

 

RECRUITING PROFILE

A four-star prospect, McGlinchey played in the Semper Fidelis All-Star game. A Top 150 prospect on 247 and Scout, McGlinchey had offers from Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and a handful of others before picking Notre Dame. He was first-team All-State, All-City and All Southeastern PA.

 

PLAYING CAREER

Freshman Season (2013): Did not see action.

Sophomore Season (2014): Played in all 13 games before replacing Christian Lombard at right tackle against USC. Started against LSU in the Music City Bowl.

Junior Season (2015): Started all 13 games at right tackle, grading out as Notre Dame’s No. 1 offensive player on PFF College with a +23.2 rating. That ranking was the highest of any right tackle in the country.

 

WHAT WE SAID LAST YEAR

Nailed it.

I’m all in on McGlinchey, who I think has a ceiling equal to Ronnie Stanley’s, who some are predicting (way too early, I might add) could be a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. That’s high praise for a guy with exactly one start, but deserving when you consider all the tremendous attributes that come along with McGlinchey’s game.

But here’s what we don’t know: How quickly will McGlinchey get comfortable in the starting lineup? Because he’ll be protecting the blindside of a young quarterback, one who has a propensity to run. That could make McGlinchey susceptible to speed rushers—already tough enough when you’re long and inexperienced—and could keep him from locking in his mechanics, something that forced Elmer to slide inside.

There’s no room for a 6-foot-8 guard, and McGlinchey’s future (both in college and at the next level) is at tackle. So while it’s a bit of a reach, there’s elite potential in McGlinchey, and I’m expecting him to show it off this season, creating another stay-or-go scenario for an offensive lineman in 2016.

 

FUTURE POTENTIAL

I already compared McGlinchey’s ceiling to Ronnie Stanley’s last year after one career start, and I wasn’t surprised when Stanley was a Top 10 pick. That’s the scenario for McGlinchey this season—play well and you’ll be viewed as another franchise cornerstone at offensive tackle in the upcoming draft, or return to South Bend for a fifth year.

McGlinchey has a mauler’s disposition and size and skills that could be more freakish than Stanley’s. It’s hard to find more superlatives for the Philadelphia native. So future potential? As close to unlimited as possible.

 

CRYSTAL BALL

I expect All-American honors for McGlinchey, who took about two practices to convince Brian Kelly and Hiestand that he’s talented enough athletically to make the transition to left tackle seamlessly. As one of the nation’s premier run blockers already, all that’s needed is a smooth transition against speed rushers, something McGlinchey should handle just fine with his length and athleticism.

McGlinchey will earn his degree this spring, meaning a fifth year likely isn’t in the cards if he’s weighing a first-round grade. And while we can look back on a season spent on the bench in 2014 behind Steve Elmer and Christian Lombard, two frontline seasons in South Bend could be enough to cement McGlinchey’s legacy as the next great tackle coming out of Notre Dame—and if he stays around for 2017 it’d be gravy.

 

2016’s Irish A-to-Z
Josh Adams
Josh Barajas
Alex Bars
Asmar Bilal
Hunter Bivin
Grant Blankenship
Jonathan Bonner
Ian Book
Parker Boudreaux
Miles Boykin
Justin Brent
Devin Butler
Jimmy Byrne
Daniel Cage
Chase Claypool
Nick Coleman
Te’von Coney
Shaun Crawford
Scott Daly
Micah Dew-Treadway
Liam Eichenberg
Jalen Elliott
Nicco Feritta
Tarean Folston
Mark Harrell
Daelin Hayes
Jay Hayes
Tristen Hoge
Corey Holmes
Torii Hunter Jr.
Alizé Jones
Jamir Jones
Jarron Jones
Jonathan Jones
Tony Jones Jr.
Khalid Kareem
DeShone Kizer
Julian Love
Tyler Luatua
Cole Luke
Greer Martini
Jacob Matuska