Teich

Five things we learned: Notre Dame vs. Navy

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With the Notre Dame offense unable to play their top three receiving threats and with running back Armando Allen well below 100 percent, it’s not a complete surprise that the Irish offense struggled against Navy’s bend, but not break, defense.

What is a surprise is the complete collapse of the Irish defense, which was absolutely decimated by the Navy option attack, captained by quarterback Ricky Dobbs and driven by fullback Alexander Teich. Last year, fullback Vince Murray had a career day against defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s scheme. This year, against Bob Diaco’s 3-4 front, Teich (who lost his job last year to Murray when he was injured but regained it when Murray went down earlier this season) set a Navy record for a fullback with 210 yards on the ground, destroying the interior of the Irish defense and opening up things for Ricky Dobbs around the edge, where he scored three touchdowns and completed both official passing attempts for gigantic plays.

“You get what you deserve,” head coach Brian Kelly said immediately after the game. “Navy was the better team today. We had no answer for them.”

After 43 years of this match-up going solely in Notre Dame’s direction, Navy has now won three of the last four games against the Irish, turning this “rivalry,” not into a hotly contested game, but a seesaw leaning in Navy’s direction thanks to a precision option attack and a flawless game plan.

Here’s what we learned this afternoon.

1. If you can’t stop the fullback, you can’t beat Navy.

I mentioned it in the Navy preview, but had the wrong fullback listed. With Vince Murray out, Alexander Teich rammed the football down the Irish’s throat, completing obliterating any hope that the Irish had of beating the Midshipmen. If the Irish had to play “assignment correct football” to win, it was impossible after the dive play worked with such incredible success.

With Navy able to turn the dive play into a major weapon, they nullified any speed advantage the Irish defenders may have had, causing the Irish to read… then react, a dilemma that Ricky Dobbs was able to exploit to perfection for much of the game.

Watching tape earlier in the year, the Irish should have been able to notice Maryland using heavy A-gap blitzes into the teeth of Navy’s line to success, but the Irish steered clear of sending blitzers and deferred to a conservative game plan. But when Bob Diaco did dial up a blitz, Niumatalolo had the perfect play designed — a screen pass for a touchdown in the first quarter, and a deep throw that beat Gary Gray for Dobbs’ second completion.

Schematically the the game was lost on the dive play, with the middle of Notre Dame’s defense unable to stop the first piece of the triple option.

2. There isn’t a quarterback controversy… yet.

Earlier in the week, Brian Kelly told everyone that’d listen that the Irish needed a very good game out of quarterback Dayne Crist if the Irish were going to win.

“The quarterback has to put the ball on guys,” Kelly said. “He’s got to be on his game. If he’s on his game, you know, we’ll be fine. But if he’s not efficient throwing the football, obviously we’ll have to struggle at times.”

The Irish offense was stuck in neutral because there continue to be growing pains for the Irish on the offensive side of the ball when Crist hits a cold patch. Crist’s two interceptions were both critical mistakes, the first an absolute back-breaker at the end of the first half, throwing into a heavy zone from deep in his own territory with under two minutes to go. The second interception Crist looked off an easy completion on a drag route to TJ Jones and instead threw to a well-covered Duval Kamara, with Navy cornerback Kwesi Mitchell stepping in front for an easy pick.

It’s clear that Dayne Crist is the most talented quarterback on the Irish roster. What’s also clear is that Crist is struggling to make the right decisions, something you just can’t do in a QB-friendly spread offense.

Credit Kelly for bringing in freshman Tommy Rees, and credit Rees for leading the Irish down the field for an impressive touchdown drive, albeit against a vanilla scheme. Rees took the underneath throw because it was available and a high-percentage play. While Rees didn’t take the shots down the field that Crist does, he still managed to complete six of his seven throws for an average of 11.3 yards per throw. Crist checked away from the shorter attempts, choosing downfield receivers, and averaged less than six yards per throw, made even worse with two interceptions.

It’s only Crist’s eight start at quarterback, but he’s got to start showing better touch on short patterns and better recognition of what defenses are trying to do.

3. Different year, same result for the Irish secondary.

Even with the Irish cornerbacks playing some of their best football coming into the game, Notre Dame was victimized all three times Navy dropped back to pass. The Irish knew they needed to avoid giving up the big play when Navy decided to put the ball in the air, and instead they gave up three big ones on all three attempts.

Credit a great play call on Dobbs’ first attempt, and credit Teich for a wonderful one-handed catch on a screen pass where he weaved through Irish defenders before rumbling to the end zone. But the Irish secondary looked terrible on the next two throws Dobbs made, with safety Harrison Smith panicking and taking a 15 yard interference penalty when he was in good enough position to simply turn and look for the football on a reverse pass. On a 2nd and 12, the Irish defense should have been prepared for something a bit off balance, and Smith’s played too much football to make the same mistakes repeatedly.

On 3rd and 6 on Navy’s first drive of the second half, the Irish also got beat one-on-one with Gary Gray tripping on himself, tugging his way back into position, then stumbling again as Dobbs lofted a pass high in the air for receiver Greg Jones to run under. Gray had no help over the top, but the Irish came up empty all three times Navy threw the ball — in situations where the Irish could have been expecting a pass.

4. The Irish might have lost the heart of their defense.

While Brian Kelly didn’t have a medical update yet, the Irish are likely bracing for the worst case scenario with nose tackle Ian Williams. Williams was seen on the sidelines with tears in his eyes and his leg in an aircast after an injury in the third quarter took him off the field.Early indications pointed to a knee injury, not a promising thing for a 315-pound defensive tackle.

Williams has been the heart of the defensive line and a true run-stuffer up the middle for the Irish, putting together a terrific senior season that had moved Williams up the draft boards of many NFL teams, and turned him into a team leader.

The loss to Navy likely weighs heavy on Williams, who had an added chip on his shoulder this week after Williams landed in the doghouse last year after the Navy game when he openly commenting that the Irish were “out-schemed” in the 23-21 defeat. According to Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Williams was banned from defensive meetings by then coordinator Jon Tentua for insubordination. (A decision that likely didn’t help as the team folded down the stretch.)

5. The Irish will need tunnel vision for the rest of the season after this loss.

There’s nothing quite like a loss to Navy to turn people against a football team, and this one brings the collective back down to the low-water mark of the 2010 season. For the Irish to keep trending upwards, they’ll need to plug their ears, get back to work, and ignore just about everything that’ll be said about them for the next 48 hours.

The defense that had made great progress throughout the year didn’t turn into a bunch of bums this weekend. An offense that was shy its best three receivers and playing with its starting running back well-below 100 percent didn’t turn into an abomination. Take the name off the front of the jersey and the Irish just lost to a 5-2 team that had lost its two games by a total of 11 points and has a quarterback that was a preseason Heisman contender. The Irish turned the ball over twice, got stuffed inside the one-yard line in the red zone, and couldn’t get a defensive stop when they absolutely needed to get one. That’s a recipe for defeat, service academy or not.

Still, the Irish loss shows that Notre Dame has a long way to go within its transformation.

“I like where we’re going,” Kelly said. “I don’t like losing football games along the way.”

For the Irish to stop losing, they’ll need to shake off some remnants that still cling to this team. Those remnants include too many finesse offensive linemen, a group of safeties that don’t play either the pass or the run very well, and a linebacking corp devoid of play-makers.

 

 

Spring positions to watch for revelations: DL & WR

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 05: Jerry Tillery #99 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackles Jerrod Heard #13 of the Texas Longhorns for a loss of yards during the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on September 5, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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If quarterback, rover and the early enrollees could be Notre Dame fans’ springtime Christmas thrills, what positions present as potential spots of coal?

Three former Irish players were invited to next week’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis: quarterback DeShone Kizer, defensive tackle Jarron Jones and defensive end Isaac Rochell. Losing two consistent defensive linemen leaves this year’s unit with some questions. Jones and Rochell combined for 100 tackles, 18 for loss and three sacks last season. Notre Dame’s returning defensive linemen combined to total 111 tackles and only 5.5 tackles for loss. To be clear, sacks are not included in that latter list because no returning defensive linemen recorded one. Among the returnees, junior tackle Jerry Tillery (37 tackles, three for loss) and senior end Andrew Trumbetti (26, 0.5) contributed solidly alongside the two NFL prospects.

This dearth of known and reliable linemen is a large part of why the potential transfer of Clemson graduate defensive tackle Scott Pagano is so intriguing. Pagano would immediately be a favorite to start, and if not that, at least rotate in heavily.

For now, though, Pagano remains a theoretical

By the end of spring practice, who already on campus will emerge alongside Tillery and Trumbetti in the Irish front? Senior ends Jay Hayes (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) and Jonathon Bonner (nine tackles) seem the most-likely candidates … aside from former four-star recruit and now rising sophomore Daelin Hayes. In his debut season, D. Hayes finished with 11 tackles.

Look for senior tackle Daniel Cage (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) to establish himself as Tillery’s immediate backup this spring, but that spot in the rotation will be up for competition all over again once four-star tackle Darnell Ewell (Lake Taylor High School; Norfolk, Va.) arrives on campus in the fall. His size and quickness should play right into new defensive coordinator Mike Elko’s system.

Equanimeous and Who?
Not only did Notre Dame bring in a graduate transfer at receiver in former Michigan wideout Freddy Canteen, but it has also already received the commitments of two four-star receivers in the 2018 recruiting class. The continued emphasis on the position reflects the lack of bona fide game-breakers currently on the roster.

Junior Equanimeous St. Brown established himself as the top Irish threat in 2016, and he should shine only further with junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush targeting him. Classmates often amplify each other’s success, simply due to the added shared reps innate to joining practice at the same time. With Torii Hunter, Jr., now pursuing a professional baseball career, who will prevent the secondary from focusing all its energies on St. Brown?

Canteen will not be with Notre Dame in the spring, as he does not graduate from Michigan until April. That will give a clear shot for the likes of juniors Chris Finke, C.J. Sanders and Miles Boykin, and sophomores Kevin Stepherson, Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool to establish themselves. Did that say “clear” shot? It should probably read, “a chance to separate from the crowd.”

If a genuine threat does not line up opposite St. Brown, his explosiveness will likely be greatly reduced by focused defensive scheming. Wimbush will need another target before 2018.

Of course, here is where one should acknowledge the millennia-tested fact: Coal under pressure becomes diamonds.

2016 Notre Dame’s win expectancy was 7.2
Sports Illustrated’s Chris Johnson named the Irish as his team most likely to dramatically improve its record in 2017. Johnson’s thinking is based, at least in part, on Notre Dame’s second-order win total having been 7.2 in 2016, compared to the four wins the Irish actually walked away with. That discrepancy was the largest in the country.

Second-order win totals reflect how many points a team should have scored and allowed based on offensive and defensive stats. In theory, this shines a light on how luck and chance factored into results. Naturally, losing seven games by one possession will often be reflected by a higher second-order win total.

“Notre Dame’s win-loss record belied a solid, if imperfect, squad that just couldn’t pull out close games…” Johnson writes. “The Irish may not get back into College Football Playoff contention in 2017, but they’re bound to post a few more Ws because of reversion to the mean.”

Admittedly, the small sample size of a football season reduces the applicability of metrics such as second- and third-order wins when compared to baseball and basketball.

Jones becomes Mack
A quick piece of housekeeping: Apparently junior tight end Alizé Jones has changed his name to Alizé Mack.

While Notre Dame’s roster may not reflect that change yet, it is reasonable to expect it will after its next update. The football program has consistently respected the intricacies of players’ name preferences. Tai-ler Jones becoming TJ Jones jumps to mind, for example.

Anyways, hopefully noting Mack’s name change here might reduce some confusion down the line. Probably not. How many readers possibly read to the actual bottom of an article? But hey, in good faith.

WR Lenzy makes 11th commitment, brings speed to Irish

lenzy
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At what point does an impressive recruiting roll become something more? When does it become a harbinger of things to come, even if not for a few seasons? How many notable commitments in a row establishes a class as special?

If the answer to any of the above is 11 commitments by the end of February, including five within two weeks, then Notre Dame is there following consensus four-star athlete Braden Lenzy’s announcement Thursday evening.

The Tigard High School (Portland, Ore) receiver/cornerback chose the Irish over offers from USC, Oregon and Michigan State, among a litany of others. In all, nine Pac-12 schools chased Lenzy—and a 10th, Washington, had shown interest—per rivals.com.

Lenzy will fit the leading 2018 need voiced by Irish coach Brian Kelly three weeks ago on National Signing Day 2017.

“Elite speed on offense will be a primary goal for us,” Kelly said Feb. 1. “Guys that can change the game on one possession. I think we’ll see that… We want a couple of home run hitters. We don’t care if they’re Darren Sproles’s size. We’re going to come off the board in terms of profile. We want some guys that can change the game on offense with elite speed.”

At 6-foot, 175 pounds, Lenzy is taller than Sproles’s 5-foot-6, but it is still his speed that drew Notre Dame’s interest.

“They made it clear they want me to do kickoff return and use me as a deep threat across the field,” he told Irish Illustrated. “Just being kind of an athlete, similar to what I’ve been doing already in high school, just on a bigger scale with a quarterback that can throw it a lot farther.”

Presuming Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush is that arm in 2018, throwing great distances should not be an issue. Between Lenzy and fellow 2018 commit Micah Jones, covering those distances should be a reasonable request, as well.

Lenzy brings Notre Dame’s class of 2018 to 11, including eight four-stars according to Rivals’ rating system. Current scholarship projections indicate the class will not be a large one, meaning the Irish coaching staff has already garnered the commitments of more than half the class. Once again, though, Kelly’s sentiment regarding recruiting timing should be remembered.

“We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

SWARBRICK’S TAKE ON RECRUITING
Kelly credited Director of Athletics Jack Swarbrick with much assistance in securing the country’s No. 13 recruiting class in 2017. A refresher on those comments:

“In a lot of instances, [Swarbrick] had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it’s going,” Kelly said. “There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future.”

Swarbrick did not dispute the factual nature of any of that in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, but he did contest the need for praising what he saw as part of his job, one of the preferred parts of his job, at that.

“I can’t say anything about this year felt all that different,” Swarbrick told Star reporter Laken Litman. “Some asked questions about the future of the program and can we compete for a national championship. And I would talk about the elements of the program we were focused on improving.”

Swarbrick and Litman discussed a number of items in the second-half of the interview released by the Star, including Notre Dame’s facilities, a possible early signing period in football and if the Oct. 8, 2016, game against North Carolina State should have been played. Spoiler: No. Then why was it? Go check it out.

Swarbrick also told Litman he likes to write in his free time.

“I tend to think strategically with a pen in my hand.” Swarbrick added he is currently scribbling away on where he thinks college athletics are headed.

This scribe, for one, would be most interested in skimming those legal pads.

Will Wimbush, Elko and the early enrollees surprise in spring practice?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 26: Fans congratulate Brandon Wimbush #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after he ran for a 58 yard touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Stadium on September 26, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Umass 62-27.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Exactly 59 days from today, the Irish will take the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Sure, they will be playing against themselves, but nonetheless, it will be somewhat-competitive football played in gold helmets.

For timing context, exactly 59 days ago, you looked beneath the Christmas tree to learn if Santa Claus left you season tickets, socks or coal. I got socks. They had some of that extra cushioning, so I considered them a suitable treat.

Whether you care about my argyles or not (you don’t), for many the Blue-Gold Game and Christmas morning hold similar excitement. That fact is apparently why Notre Dame director of athletics Jack Swarbrick does not concern himself when groups of alumni publicly lament his decisions, or lack thereof.

“I never worry about that,” Swarbirck told the Indianapolis Star in an exclusive interview you really should read. Go on, click the link, it will open in a new tab. You can come right back here when you are done.

“The hardest job in athletics is trying to generate passion in your program. If that sort of stuff bothers you, you can’t be the athletic director, head coach or the quarterback at Notre Dame.”

That very passion will undoubtedly lead to frame-by-frame discussions of video snippets from spring practice, parsing of each and every word Irish coach Brian Kelly says in quick interviews after those practices, and extreme pessimism and optimism about the 2017 season.

In the Christmas spirit, what toys could bring the must excitement during the spring unwrapping? Personally, the gift I was unsure of always brought the most joy. I would rather open an unexpected book than know about a charcoal-gray suit. In other words, at least for today, let’s look past the offensive line, the running backs and the inside linebackers. Instead, let’s look forward to learning about… (more…)

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)