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New hires put coaching vacancies into perspective

Dec 15, 2010, 3:24 PM EST

Jack Swarbrick

Filling a coaching vacancy is tough business in major college football. Your pool of potential targets is always shifting, already happily employed, and also filled by men who have to act as if they’re absolutely uninterested in switching jobs right until the point they sign on the dotted line. Adding to the complications, there’s an unruly group of fans and media watching your every move, and even tracking your flights, as you set about scouring the country for your next head football coach.

Yet when Jack Swarbrick went about looking for the next head coach of Notre Dame after dismissing Charlie Weis after 21 losses in three seasons, he did so in a relative cloak of secrecy, only turning up after securing Brian Kelly as the Irish’s next football coach. While there was smoke surrounding Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, there were no leaks from the Notre Dame Board of Trustees, no outsiders with advanced knowledge of the search, and no real idea of who else was in the running for the job until Kelly’s name was announced by Notre Dame.

Maybe the fact that Kelly was the overwhelmingly logical choice is what rankled many of the feathers of those that didn’t like the hire. Perhaps it was the workman like apprenticeship Kelly had served, with six years spent at the D-I level at Central Michigan and Cincinnati after an illustrious run at Grand Valley State, a solid, but certainly not dazzling CV. Sure Kelly put up near historic numbers in the Big East, but that incredible run came with the built-in caveats that come with playing in a conference that now lacks the traditional powers of the other automatic qualifiers.

But after watching elite football programs like Miami miss on Domer fantasy Jon Gruden and “settle” for Temple coach Al Golden, while Florida AD Jeremy Foley replaced fellow Domer dream Urban Meyer with Will Muschamp, the defensive coordinator of the worst Texas team of the decade, and it might be time for Irish fans to either recalibrate what kind of coach should be coming to South Bend next time the head job comes vacant, or come to grips with just how good of a hire Kelly was by Jack Swarbrick.

Thanks to some research by the hibernating website Blue-Gray Sky, let’s take a look at the hires of some of the other “big name” colleges since 2006:

School Outgoing Incoming Days Elapsed
Florida Urban Meyer Will Muschamp 2
Miami (Fla.) Randy Shannon Al Golden 14
Tennessee Lane Kiffin Derek Dooley 2
Southern California Pete Carroll Lane Kiffin 2
Florida State Bobby Bowden Jimbo Fisher 0
Notre Dame Charlie Weis Brian Kelly 10
Oregon Mike Bellotti Chip Kelly 0
Tennessee Phil Fullmer Lane Kiffin 28
Washington Tyrone Willingham Steve Sarkisian 39
Clemson Terry Bowden Dabo Swinney 49
West Virginia Rich Rodriguez Bill Stewart 18
UCLA K. Dorrell Rick Neuheisel 25
Arkansas Houston Nutt Bobby Petrino 15
Nebraska Bill Callahan Bo Pelini 8
Texas A&M Dennis Franchione Mike Sherman 3
Michigan Lloyd Carr Rich Rodriguez 28
Stanford Walt Harris Jim Harbaugh 14
Alabama Mike Shula Nick Saban 37
Miami (Fla.) Larry Coker Randy Shannon 15
North Carolina John Bunting Butch Davis 21

Above are arguably the 20 most high-profile coaching transitions of the last five seasons. Taking a look at the list, you get the idea of just what type of coach jumps from a job that they have to a job that opens up.

Of the head coaches on that list, regardless of what you thought of the job that Kelly did in his first year at Notre Dame, it’s hard not to rank him above every head coach on this list with the exception of Nick Saban, Rich Rodriguez, and probably Bobby Petrino. Obviously Rodriguez’s struggles at Michigan help frame the discussion, while Petrino’s “personality” make him a tough fit at a place like Notre Dame.

Simply put, no matter the shine of the Golden Dome, or any other college program, here’s empirical evidence that shows no coach — regardless of the history of the football program — flees a top job at an elite college or NFL team for another school.

Even new Florida coach Will Muschamp addressed the concerns of his lack of head coaching experience in his opening press conference, surely as a reaction to the news of a defensive coordinator getting his first head coaching job at a place like Florida.

“I know that there will be criticism about maybe not hiring a guy without head coaching experience and I certainly understand that,” Muschamp said. “But I do think if you look at it you can really look at all the examples across the board of guys that had no head coaching experience and did an outstanding job because they were the right fit, for the right job, at the right time. And you can look at a lot of examples of guys that had head coaching experience and went to situations like Florida and didn’t have success like you thought they might have.”

Muschamp’s comments might as well be taken verbatim from Swarbrick’s introductory press conference where he called Kelly “the right man at the right time for Notre Dame.” Only in Kelly’s case, he also put together one of the best six year runs of any coach in Division I-A football in his two stops at Central Michigan and Cincinnati.

Neither Swarbrick nor Kelly are happy with being 7-5 after one season on the job. But if you look at the process of hiring a new coach at a major college football program, there’s every reason to believe that Notre Dame and its administration actually made the best move possible when considering their options. That may be a tough pill for some Irish fans to swallow, but it’s probably a far better one when you consider Kelly would likely have been the front-runner for both the Miami and Florida position had he stuck around another season at Cincinnati.

  1. whisk3yjack - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:33 PM

    Who still questions the Kelly hire?

    This team was three plays away from finishing 10-2, and despite lots of key injuries/ adversity, they kept getting better; unlike Dick Rod’s Michigan team, which faded miserably down the stretch.

    There’s no question in my mind that Kelly is among the most successful of the above listed coaches thus far.

  2. beanspeaks - Dec 16, 2010 at 2:07 AM

    God I miss Blue-Grey Sky. It was, by far, one of the best college football blogs on the internet, and among the best sports blogs overall. Not that this blog isn’t a great resource for information or anything, but BGS was home to the sort of play-by-play film review and in-depth strategic analysis you don’t usually see outside coaches’ offices.

    Alas.

  3. thepiper3 - Dec 16, 2010 at 4:52 PM

    Good article Keith. I tried posting this thesis as a response to NDNation articles and got nowhere, so I gave up. Its confusing but many believe that there are only 5-7 coaches that should be interviewed for a job: Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, and Mack Brown (and now Chip Kelly).

    But the chances they will leave a major job for another major job are essentially ZERO.

    How about this stat….over the last 50yrs, how many coaches have left this list of 17 top programs for another Head Coaching job at another COLLEGE program?

    Alabama
    Florida
    Florida St
    LSU
    Miami (Fla)
    Michigan
    Nebraska
    Notre Dame
    Oklahoma
    Ohio State
    Oregon
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Texas A&M
    UCLA
    USC
    Washington

    The answer? TWO.
    (1) Dennis Franchione left Alabama…but only because of Bama’s probationary problems.
    (2) Doug Dickey left Tennessee in 1970 for Florida…but only because he was a Florida alumnus.

    So why the obsession with the big name from a top program? It NEVER happens.

  4. irishjudge - Dec 16, 2010 at 8:18 PM

    I’m with whisk3yjack. Who still questions the Kelly hire?

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