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Weekend notes: Floyd, QBs (present and future), and more

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Let’s tackle one of the more interesting tidbits first. It’s expected that Michael Floyd will be meeting with ResLife this afternoon to ultimately determine his university punishment for his drunk-driving arrest that happened in mid-March, just before spring football practice was set to start.

Floyd’s been on indefinite suspension from all football activities, missing the first 10 practices of the Irish spring season, and has been held out of all other football activities since. He made a brief appearance on Twitter a few nights ago that got the internet humming, and supported his former teammates at ND’s Pro Day yesterday.

The meeting originally set for yesterday was rescheduled for today, certain sources have told me, and that meeting will hold the key for Michael’s future at Notre Dame. One thing I can report for certain — Floyd’s already committed to getting his life back on track, something Brian Kelly mentioned nearly a week ago, and he’s also committed to getting his degree from Notre Dame, one of the main reasons he decided to stick around for his senior season in the first place.

There’s likely no disciplinary measure that’ll make everybody happy. The hardliners can make a compelling argument that his career should be over, and they’ve got precedence to support their case. There’s also a valid case to be made that Floyd’s punishment could’ve already been served, as long as he continues on the straight and narrow. The likely outcome? Who honestly knows. For every Will Yeatman fiasco you can look at the level-headed punishment of Mike Ragone last year, a marijuana arrest last May that cost the tight end nothing in terms of games.

It’s possible the university will discipline Floyd academically and leave his athletic punishment up to the football staff and athletic department. If that’s the case, expect most of the penance to be done in either public service or private, and a suspension in the range of 1-2 games. Again, this is only an educated guess based on what I’ve been hearing, but Floyd will have to continue to prove he deserves this second chance, and in many ways the timing of this gives him the opportunity to prove it before the season starts.

(By 5pm tonight, this entire bit could be proven completely wrong, so don’t get your hopes up…)

***

It was Dayne Crist’s turn in the spotlight and if you’re looking for articles on him you are in luck. It was thought that if Crist could return healthy he’d be in the driver’s seat for the QB competition and that’s proven correct.

In fact, his knee surgery is once again a non-factor after being a huge concern.

“I don’t notice it,” Crist said. “I really don’t notice it out there at all. The treatment becomes less and less post-practice. I feel really fortunate and really blessed that I’m where I’m at right now. I’m just continuing to get stronger in the weight room from a lower body standpoint. That’s just me being behind for several months, but I don’t feel like there’s a huge drop-off. I’m still being real active and making up a lot of ground in there.”

There’s no benefit for Brian Kelly to announce a starting quarterback publicly at the end of spring. That said, there’s isn’t much of a benefit to him announcing that decision internally either, and he’s only committed to pairing down the depth chart to three-deep, which will likely be what happens in preseason camp.

Regardless of if the starting job stays in limbo, it’s clear Crist has taken over a leadership role on the offense, a personality trait of the quarterback’s that’s never been in doubt.

***

Turning to quarterbacks yet on the roster, ESPN’s Bruce Feldman took a look at the top QB recruiting battles in 2012, and Notre Dame target Gunner Kiel topped the list.

From Feldman:

Kiel has a great first name for a QB. He also has a strong pedigree. His uncle, Blair Kiel, was a quarterback for Notre Dame and in the NFL, and his older brothers also are QBs — Drew played at Illinois State and Dustin is with the Indiana Hoosiers. The younger Kiel’s arm has wowed scouts.

Kiel’s recruitment hasn’t gotten crazy, but the 6-foot-4, 215-pounder joked that “it’s getting there.” Kiel said he is determined not to rush his thought process. “I want to make a decision whenever I’m ready,” he said Tuesday night. “I’m trying to get to know these situations to find the perfect fit for me.”

Kiel said he isn’t one to surf around the web in hopes of getting a feel for what other QBs and colleges may be up to. “I don’t really follow it,” he said. “I’m just letting the cards play out and go with the flow.”

Of course, it helps that he’s probably on top of a bunch of schools’ wish lists and may get the right of first refusal. Among the many programs in the mix are Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri.

There’s been a lot of speculation that Kiel is leaning to Notre Dame (he said he rooted for the Irish growing up but added that he was always “a fairweather fan” and changed allegiances often depending on which team was hot). He said his next move is to fly to Oklahoma to check out the Sooners’ program on Thursday.

Kiel figures to have an impact on other QBs in his class. According to the South Bend Tribune, one of them could be Maty Mauk, the younger brother of former Cincinnati Bearcats passer Ben Mauk, who played for Brian Kelly at UC. “I met with Maty Mauk recently and I definitely believe he’s leaning to Notre Dame,” Chicago-based recruiting analyst Tom Lemming said. “I think he would have committed to Notre Dame already had his mother not insisted on him visiting other schools.

“Gunner Kiel recently had a great visit to Notre Dame, enough so that I think at this early stage the Irish are either the favorites or even with the other favorites. If [the Irish] take Mauk early, they could lose Kiel.”

It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.

There are certainly worse situations for the Irish to be in with both Mauk and Kiel truly interested in the Irish, but it seems like Kiel wants to take his time.

***

We noticed him earlier in the week and coaches have been talking about the nice spring Dan Fox has put together. With Prince Shembo and Danny Spond taking most of the reps at the ‘Dog’ linebacker position, Fox has moved inside, where he’s competing for the spot next to Manti Te’o, a competition that’s getting him a lot of reps with Anthony McDonald down with a torn pectoral muscle and Te’o limited from most action, in all likelihood the Blue-Gold game as well.

Fox talked about the position shift and the changes he’s made to improve since last season, when he initially slide inside.

“Last year I was kind of figuring out playing inside linebacker, trying to read the run real fast and then getting out in my pass drops,” Fox said. “Every time you play a position for two years you are going to feel a little bit more comfortable because you have the whole year of experience under your belt. That helps a lot.”

Fox’s ascent coincides with a very candid and public statement by defensive coordinator Bob Diaco when discussing what Carlo Calabrese has to do to continue as the starting linebacker next to Te’o.

“Carlo has to clean his game up. He has to get himself to a point where he’s not a liability of one of those 11 and right now he is,” Diaco said. “He needs to improve all areas. He needs to improve on his run fits and his eye progression in his run fits. He needs to clean up his pass fits and the fundamentals of how to get that done. He needs to clean up his cardio so that he can play harder longer. He needs to clean up, just in general, his game. If he wants to be the starting inside linebacker at Notre Dame and not be 11 of 11, then he’s got work to do.”

There are five more practices for this to play out, including all fall camp, but it’s clear that Diaco is taking a move from the Brian Kelly playbook on his message to Calabrese.

 

Spring positions to watch for revelations: DL & WR

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 05: Jerry Tillery #99 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackles Jerrod Heard #13 of the Texas Longhorns for a loss of yards during the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on September 5, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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If quarterback, rover and the early enrollees could be Notre Dame fans’ springtime Christmas thrills, what positions present as potential spots of coal?

Three former Irish players were invited to next week’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis: quarterback DeShone Kizer, defensive tackle Jarron Jones and defensive end Isaac Rochell. Losing two consistent defensive linemen leaves this year’s unit with some questions. Jones and Rochell combined for 100 tackles, 18 for loss and three sacks last season. Notre Dame’s returning defensive linemen combined to total 111 tackles and only 5.5 tackles for loss. To be clear, sacks are not included in that latter list because no returning defensive linemen recorded one. Among the returnees, junior tackle Jerry Tillery (37 tackles, three for loss) and senior end Andrew Trumbetti (26, 0.5) contributed solidly alongside the two NFL prospects.

This dearth of known and reliable linemen is a large part of why the potential transfer of Clemson graduate defensive tackle Scott Pagano is so intriguing. Pagano would immediately be a favorite to start, and if not that, at least rotate in heavily.

For now, though, Pagano remains a theoretical

By the end of spring practice, who already on campus will emerge alongside Tillery and Trumbetti in the Irish front? Senior ends Jay Hayes (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) and Jonathon Bonner (nine tackles) seem the most-likely candidates … aside from former four-star recruit and now rising sophomore Daelin Hayes. In his debut season, D. Hayes finished with 11 tackles.

Look for senior tackle Daniel Cage (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) to establish himself as Tillery’s immediate backup this spring, but that spot in the rotation will be up for competition all over again once four-star tackle Darnell Ewell (Lake Taylor High School; Norfolk, Va.) arrives on campus in the fall. His size and quickness should play right into new defensive coordinator Mike Elko’s system.

Equanimeous and Who?
Not only did Notre Dame bring in a graduate transfer at receiver in former Michigan wideout Freddy Canteen, but it has also already received the commitments of two four-star receivers in the 2018 recruiting class. The continued emphasis on the position reflects the lack of bona fide game-breakers currently on the roster.

Junior Equanimeous St. Brown established himself as the top Irish threat in 2016, and he should shine only further with junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush targeting him. Classmates often amplify each other’s success, simply due to the added shared reps innate to joining practice at the same time. With Torii Hunter, Jr., now pursuing a professional baseball career, who will prevent the secondary from focusing all its energies on St. Brown?

Canteen will not be with Notre Dame in the spring, as he does not graduate from Michigan until April. That will give a clear shot for the likes of juniors Chris Finke, C.J. Sanders and Miles Boykin, and sophomores Kevin Stepherson, Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool to establish themselves. Did that say “clear” shot? It should probably read, “a chance to separate from the crowd.”

If a genuine threat does not line up opposite St. Brown, his explosiveness will likely be greatly reduced by focused defensive scheming. Wimbush will need another target before 2018.

Of course, here is where one should acknowledge the millennia-tested fact: Coal under pressure becomes diamonds.

2016 Notre Dame’s win expectancy was 7.2
Sports Illustrated’s Chris Johnson named the Irish as his team most likely to dramatically improve its record in 2017. Johnson’s thinking is based, at least in part, on Notre Dame’s second-order win total having been 7.2 in 2016, compared to the four wins the Irish actually walked away with. That discrepancy was the largest in the country.

Second-order win totals reflect how many points a team should have scored and allowed based on offensive and defensive stats. In theory, this shines a light on how luck and chance factored into results. Naturally, losing seven games by one possession will often be reflected by a higher second-order win total.

“Notre Dame’s win-loss record belied a solid, if imperfect, squad that just couldn’t pull out close games…” Johnson writes. “The Irish may not get back into College Football Playoff contention in 2017, but they’re bound to post a few more Ws because of reversion to the mean.”

Admittedly, the small sample size of a football season reduces the applicability of metrics such as second- and third-order wins when compared to baseball and basketball.

Jones becomes Mack
A quick piece of housekeeping: Apparently junior tight end Alizé Jones has changed his name to Alizé Mack.

While Notre Dame’s roster may not reflect that change yet, it is reasonable to expect it will after its next update. The football program has consistently respected the intricacies of players’ name preferences. Tai-ler Jones becoming TJ Jones jumps to mind, for example.

Anyways, hopefully noting Mack’s name change here might reduce some confusion down the line. Probably not. How many readers possibly read to the actual bottom of an article? But hey, in good faith.

WR Lenzy makes 11th commitment, brings speed to Irish

lenzy
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At what point does an impressive recruiting roll become something more? When does it become a harbinger of things to come, even if not for a few seasons? How many notable commitments in a row establishes a class as special?

If the answer to any of the above is 11 commitments by the end of February, including five within two weeks, then Notre Dame is there following consensus four-star athlete Braden Lenzy’s announcement Thursday evening.

The Tigard High School (Portland, Ore) receiver/cornerback chose the Irish over offers from USC, Oregon and Michigan State, among a litany of others. In all, nine Pac-12 schools chased Lenzy—and a 10th, Washington, had shown interest—per rivals.com.

Lenzy will fit the leading 2018 need voiced by Irish coach Brian Kelly three weeks ago on National Signing Day 2017.

“Elite speed on offense will be a primary goal for us,” Kelly said Feb. 1. “Guys that can change the game on one possession. I think we’ll see that… We want a couple of home run hitters. We don’t care if they’re Darren Sproles’s size. We’re going to come off the board in terms of profile. We want some guys that can change the game on offense with elite speed.”

At 6-foot, 175 pounds, Lenzy is taller than Sproles’s 5-foot-6, but it is still his speed that drew Notre Dame’s interest.

“They made it clear they want me to do kickoff return and use me as a deep threat across the field,” he told Irish Illustrated. “Just being kind of an athlete, similar to what I’ve been doing already in high school, just on a bigger scale with a quarterback that can throw it a lot farther.”

Presuming Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush is that arm in 2018, throwing great distances should not be an issue. Between Lenzy and fellow 2018 commit Micah Jones, covering those distances should be a reasonable request, as well.

Lenzy brings Notre Dame’s class of 2018 to 11, including eight four-stars according to Rivals’ rating system. Current scholarship projections indicate the class will not be a large one, meaning the Irish coaching staff has already garnered the commitments of more than half the class. Once again, though, Kelly’s sentiment regarding recruiting timing should be remembered.

“We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

SWARBRICK’S TAKE ON RECRUITING
Kelly credited Director of Athletics Jack Swarbrick with much assistance in securing the country’s No. 13 recruiting class in 2017. A refresher on those comments:

“In a lot of instances, [Swarbrick] had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it’s going,” Kelly said. “There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future.”

Swarbrick did not dispute the factual nature of any of that in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, but he did contest the need for praising what he saw as part of his job, one of the preferred parts of his job, at that.

“I can’t say anything about this year felt all that different,” Swarbrick told Star reporter Laken Litman. “Some asked questions about the future of the program and can we compete for a national championship. And I would talk about the elements of the program we were focused on improving.”

Swarbrick and Litman discussed a number of items in the second-half of the interview released by the Star, including Notre Dame’s facilities, a possible early signing period in football and if the Oct. 8, 2016, game against North Carolina State should have been played. Spoiler: No. Then why was it? Go check it out.

Swarbrick also told Litman he likes to write in his free time.

“I tend to think strategically with a pen in my hand.” Swarbrick added he is currently scribbling away on where he thinks college athletics are headed.

This scribe, for one, would be most interested in skimming those legal pads.

Will Wimbush, Elko and the early enrollees surprise in spring practice?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 26: Fans congratulate Brandon Wimbush #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after he ran for a 58 yard touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Stadium on September 26, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Umass 62-27.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Exactly 59 days from today, the Irish will take the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Sure, they will be playing against themselves, but nonetheless, it will be somewhat-competitive football played in gold helmets.

For timing context, exactly 59 days ago, you looked beneath the Christmas tree to learn if Santa Claus left you season tickets, socks or coal. I got socks. They had some of that extra cushioning, so I considered them a suitable treat.

Whether you care about my argyles or not (you don’t), for many the Blue-Gold Game and Christmas morning hold similar excitement. That fact is apparently why Notre Dame director of athletics Jack Swarbrick does not concern himself when groups of alumni publicly lament his decisions, or lack thereof.

“I never worry about that,” Swarbirck told the Indianapolis Star in an exclusive interview you really should read. Go on, click the link, it will open in a new tab. You can come right back here when you are done.

“The hardest job in athletics is trying to generate passion in your program. If that sort of stuff bothers you, you can’t be the athletic director, head coach or the quarterback at Notre Dame.”

That very passion will undoubtedly lead to frame-by-frame discussions of video snippets from spring practice, parsing of each and every word Irish coach Brian Kelly says in quick interviews after those practices, and extreme pessimism and optimism about the 2017 season.

In the Christmas spirit, what toys could bring the must excitement during the spring unwrapping? Personally, the gift I was unsure of always brought the most joy. I would rather open an unexpected book than know about a charcoal-gray suit. In other words, at least for today, let’s look past the offensive line, the running backs and the inside linebackers. Instead, let’s look forward to learning about… (more…)

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)