Brian Kelly - vs. Michigan

2011 could be the year… Now with stats to back you up


I’m a few days late linking to Bill Connelly’s season preview of the Fighting Irish, but I can always blame the research needed to simply understand what Connelly is actually talking about for the delay.

Connelly is part of the wonderful team at, taking “innovative statistics and intelligent analysis,” two things that always trump the standard blow-harding that comes along with this time of year when people try and project who’s going to be good and who isn’t in the upcoming season.

I’ve done my best to ignore the fact that Notre Dame is a “consensus” preseason No. 12, if only because Notre Dame’s inclusion in preseason magazines and rankings rarely ever comes true. But when somebody actually takes the time to show WHY the Irish have the potential to be a very special football team, well — that deserves a second look.

Do yourself a favor and read Connelly’s entire preview. But here are a few tidbits I found incredibly interesting:

* Dayne Crist vs. Tommy Rees: It’s easy to look at the team’s record under Crist and the Irish’s record after Rees took over and to come to the conclusion that Rees played better. Even if you compare their stats, which are pretty similar, you’d think a spotless W/L record would give Rees the lead heading into fall camp.

But Connelly breaks down the numbers and shows that the Irish offense was actually better with Crist at the helm — with the Irish offense averaging 30.3 Adj. PPG with Crist and 26.7 Adj. PPG with Rees.

Both hovered around the national average of 27.1, but taking opponent into account, the offense performed slightly better with Crist at the wheel. (This despite the fact that running back Cierre Wood began to thrive late in the season as well, further aiding Rees.)  The Irish very much won games with defense over their final third of the season, and while Rees didn’t get in the way, Crist was the slightly more well-rounded option in terms of yards per pass, touchdowns-to-interceptions, and run threat (he’s not exactly Tony Rice, but he had 165 pre-sack rushing yards). I assume the starting job will be Crist’s when all is said and done, though Rees and evidently Everett Golson and Andrew Hendrix all still have a chance to sway the coaches.

While you wouldn’t have known it by watching the Blue-Gold game, I heard nothing but good things about Crist’s work during spring practice. Brian Kelly is going to stay mum about it for obvious reasons, but I suspect it’ll be Crist leading the Irish come September 3 against USF.

* Look out for the Irish defense. While some people still want to think differently, Bob Diaco did an outstanding job with the Irish defense. Even more impressive though, was Chuck Martin’s work with the secondary. Guiding a secondary that needed to forget a really ugly statistical season, Martin and Diaco helped the unit perform a 180, even more incredible when you consider they lost a starter in the season opener and played with only two healthy scholarship safeties for most of the season. Still, Diaco probably won’t be fully embraced until he shows he can stop the Navy option, but after that dreadful day, the defense was transformed.

The only time they gave up more than 14.3 Adj. Points in the last five games was against Miami in the Sun Bowl, and in that game they took a 30-3 lead before the Hurricanes got rolling. Theirs was potentially the best defense in the country after their humbling loss to Navy on October 23, and it is the primary basis for what will be some pretty strong College Football Almanac 2011 projections. Which is odd considering defense hasn’t been the strongest feature for Kelly’s teams in the past. So consider this a huge nod in the direction of defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, whose 3-4 alignment evidently fits the personnel very well.

Rarely do you see a position coach do such a good job with his unit and lose responsibility, but that’s what happened to Martin, who gave the cornerback coaching duties to Kerry Cooks. But don’t worry about Martin, he’ll have his hands full as recruiting coordinator and will likely have even more say in the weekly packages installed this season.

* Irish will improve at blitzing. One final note that caught my eye — Connelly makes mention of the defense saying, “Bob Diaco’s 3-4 defense almost had the statisticaly profile of a 4-2-5 — not great in attacking situations, but reacting, swarming, and preventing big plays…”

What’s interesting is that the Irish actually did slide into a 4-2-5 when they went to four down linemen, something I imagine they’ll do much more this season, with guys like Aaron Lynch, Steve Filer, and Ishaq Williams capable of bringing heat on the pass rush.

For as well as the defense played last season, I’m guessing the Irish want to be more effective when blitzing the passer. With the move of Prince Shembo to an outside linebacker spot opposite Darius Fleming, the Irish have two guys with elite pass rush ability standing on the edges of the defense, giving Diaco the ability to confuse a defense far better than he could last year, when Kerry Neal and Brian Smith weren’t great pass rush options.

Go for two or not? Both sides of the highly-debated topic

during their game at Clemson Memorial Stadium on October 3, 2015 in Clemson, South Carolina.

Notre Dame’s two failed two-point conversion tries against Clemson have been the source of much debate in the aftermath of the Irish’s 24-22 loss to the Tigers. Brian Kelly’s decision to go for two with just over 14 minutes left in the game forced the Irish into another two-point conversion attempt with just seconds left in regulation, with DeShone Kizer falling short as he attempted to push the game into overtime.

Was Kelly’s decision to go for two the right one at the beginning of the fourth quarter? That depends.

Take away the result—a pass that flew through the fingers of a wide open Corey Robinson. Had the Irish kicked their extra point, Justin Yoon would’ve trotted onto the field with a chance to send the game into overtime. (Then again, had Robinson caught the pass, Notre Dame would’ve been kicking for the win in the final seconds…)

This is the second time a two-point conversion decision has opened Kelly up to second guessing in the past eight games. Last last season, Kelly’s decision to go for two in the fourth-quarter with an 11-point lead against Northwestern, came back to bite the Irish and helped the Wildcats stun Notre Dame in overtime.

That choice was likely fueled by struggles in the kicking game, heightened by Kyle Brindza’s blocked extra-point attempt in the first half, a kick returned by Northwestern that turned a 14-7 game into a 13-9 lead. With a fourth-quarter, 11-point lead, the Irish failed to convert their two-point attempt that would’ve stretched their lead to 13 points. After Northwestern converted their own two-point play, they made a game-tying field goal after Cam McDaniel fumbled the ball as the Irish were running out the clock. Had the Irish gone for (and converted) a PAT, the Wildcats would’ve needed to score a touchdown.

Moving back to Saturday night, Kelly’s decision needs to be put into context. After being held to just three points for the first 45 minutes of the game, C.J. Prosise broke a long catch and run for a touchdown in the opening minute of the fourth quarter. Clemson would be doing their best to kill the clock. Notre Dame’s first touchdown of the game brought the score within 12 points when Kelly decided to try and push the score within 10—likely remembering the very way Northwestern forced overtime.

After the game, Kelly said it was the right decision, citing his two-point conversion card and the time left in the game. On his Sunday afternoon teleconference, he said the same, giving a bit more rationale for his decision.

“We were down and we got the chance to put that game into a two-score with a field goal. I don’t chase the points until the fourth quarter, and our mathematical chart, which I have on the sideline with me and we have a senior adviser who concurred with me, and we said go for two. It says on our chart to go for two.

“We usually don’t use the chart until the fourth quarter because, again, we don’t chase the points. We went for two to make it a 10-point game. So we felt we had the wind with us so we would have to score a touchdown and a field goal because we felt like we probably only had three more possessions.

“The way they were running the clock, we’d probably get three possessions maximum and we’re going to have to score in two out of the three. So it was the smart decision to make, it was the right one to make. Obviously, you know, if we catch the two-point conversion, which was wide open, then we just kick the extra point and we’ve got a different outcome.”

That logic and rationale is why I had no problem with the decision when it happened in real time. But not everybody agrees.

Perhaps the strongest rebuke of the decision came from Irish Illustrated’s Tim Prister, who had this to say about the decision in his (somewhat appropriately-titled) weekly Point After column:

Hire another analyst or at least assign someone to the task of deciphering the Beautiful Mind-level math problem that seems to be vexing the Notre Dame brain-trust when a dweeb with half-inch thick glasses and a pocket protector full of pens could tell you that in the game of football, you can’t chase points before it is time… (moving ahead)

…The more astonishing thing is that no one in the ever-growing football organization that now adds analysts and advisors on a regular basis will offer the much-needed advice. Making such decisions in the heat of battle is not easy. What one thinks of in front of the TV or in a press box does not come as clearly when you’re the one pulling the trigger for millions to digest.

And yet with this ever-expanding entourage, Notre Dame still does not have anyone who can scream through the headphones to the head coach, “Coach, don’t go for two!”

If someone, anyone within the organization had the common sense and then the courage to do so, the Irish wouldn’t have lost every game in November of 2014 and would have had a chance to win in overtime against Clemson Saturday night.

My biggest gripe about the decision was the indecision that came along with the choice. Scoring on a big-play tends to stress your team as special teams players shuffle onto the field and the offense comes off. But Notre Dame’s use of a timeout was a painful one, and certainly should’ve been spared considering the replay review that gave Notre Dame’s coaching staff more time to make a decision.

For what it’s worth, Kelly’s decision was probably similar to the one many head coaches would make. And it stems from the original two-point conversion chart that Dick Vermeil developed back in the 1970s.

The original chart didn’t account for success rate or time left in the game. As Kelly mentioned before, Notre Dame uses one once it’s the fourth quarter.

It’s a debate that won’t end any time soon. And certainly one that will have hindsight on the side of the “kick the football” argument.



Navy, Notre Dame will display mutual respect with uniforms

Keenan Reynolds, Isaac Rochell

The storied and important history of Notre Dame and Navy’s long-running rivalry will be on display this weekend, with the undefeated Midshipmen coming to South Bend this weekend.

On NBCSN, a half-hour documentary presentation will take a closer look, with “Onward Notre Dame: Mutual Respect” talking about everything from Notre Dame’s 43-year winning streak, to Navy’s revival, triggered by their victory in 2007. The episode will also talk about the rivalries ties to World War II, and how the Navy helped keep Notre Dame alive during wartime.

You can catch it on tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN or online in the same viewing window.

On the field, perhaps an even more unique gesture of respect is planned. With Under Armour the apparel partner for both Notre Dame and Navy, both teams will take the field wearing the same cleats, gloves and baselayers. Each team’s coaching staff will also be outfitted in the same sideline gear.

More from Monday’s press release:

For the first time in college football, two opponents take the field with the exact same Under Armour baselayer, gloves and cleats to pay homage to the storied history and brotherhood between their two schools. The baselayer features both Universities’ alma maters on the sleeves and glove palms with the words “respect, honor, tradition” as a reminder of their connection to each other. Both sidelines and coaches also will wear the same sideline gear as a sign of mutual admiration.​

Navy and Notre Dame will meet for the 89th time on Saturday, a rivalry that dates back to 1927. After the Midshipmen won three of four games starting in 2007, Notre Dame hopes to extend their current winning streak to five games on Saturday.

Here’s an early look at some of the gear: