Aaron Lynch Blue Gold

Projecting the freshmen

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With a tip of the cap to Frank over at UHND.com and as we get ready to embark on another fun offseason exercise of projecting the Top 25 players on the Irish roster, I wanted to follow up on his series that’s been going on here, here, here and here.

In what likely will be something we can look back on and chuckle, I’ll attempt to pick my rookies that’ll likely make the biggest impact on the 2011 season. And just because Frank came up with the idea and I obviously need to advance his original thought, I’ll get crazy and rank the 23 incoming freshman in order of their impact on the season.

Because this isn’t picking teams in gym class, I’m going to avoid ranking these guys from 1-to-23, but you’ll see where I’m going with this one rather quickly.

Without further ado, here’s a quick projection of what we can expect from the Irish rookies. (With the very large asterisk signifying my right to change my opinion, groupings, and thought process whenever I want to.)

Group One: See you at Training Table

This group can basically be lumped together, as I don’t expect any of them to use a year of eligibility. Again, this doesn’t mean I don’t think they won’t become big-time players (ask Harrison Smith what redshirting did for him), it just means that these guys will likely spend the season on the scout team.

Brad Carrico, OL — The debut commitment of the 2011 signing class and an early-enrollee will likely see incredible physical gains during his year watching, learning and eating.
Nick Martin, OL — With his older brother holding down the blind side, Martin can follow the family plan by redshirting a season then hopefully stepping into the starting lineup.
Conor Hanratty, OL — Terry’s son will definitely benefit from Paul Longo’s weight room and a few extra meals at training table.
Tony Springmann, DE — He’s got the size to potentially be a mammoth individual, I just don’t see Springmann breaking into the two-deep at defensive end yet.
Matt Hegarty, OL — He might be highly touted, but Hegarty will likely spend his freshman season facing off against the Irish’s No. 1 defense — pretty good practice.

Group Two: Don’t hold your breath, but intrigue awaits

Whether it’s a stacked depth chart or some needed development, there’s a good chance we won’t hear any of these names, but they could just as easily turn into a Kona Schwenke-like player, coming out of nowhere to make a difference. At the very least, they might be special teams candidates and earn a letter.

Chase Hounshell, OL/DL — Something about this kid strikes me as fierce, and his ability to cross-train on either side of the ball has me thinking he might work his way onto the field.
Anthony Rabasa, OLB — Rabasa might not grab the eyeballs like some recruits, but this kid played elite football in an elite league, a good recipe for early success.
Troy Niklas, OL/DL — Call it West Coast bias, but there’s something about this lanky Orange County product that’s intriguing right out of the gate.
Jarrett Grace, LB — He’s walking into a crowded depth chart, but Grace has an All-American ceiling, something I won’t say about many recruits.

Group Three: So you’re saying there’s a chance…

In honor of Lloyd Christmas, Group Three either fills a need for the Irish or is good enough to have the coaching staff find a role for them. Sure, they might not turn into freshman All-Americans, but expect to hear Tom Hammond or Mike Mayock gushing over one of these guys relatively soon.

Ben Koyack, TE — The Irish have a great depth chart in front of him, but Koyack’s the real deal with the ball in his hands. If he puts in the time this summer gaining some good weight, he’ll have every chance to add some weaponry to the tight end position.
Josh Atkinson, DB — He’s got nice height, good speed, and great bloodlines, I just don’t know how ready Josh is to contribute on a very good defense with an excellent (but thin) secondary.
Kyle Brindza, K/P — That rocket that’s replaced Brindza’s leg hopefully will give the Irish a jolt, both in the kickoff game and in punting.
Jalen Brown, DB — It’s hard to know what someone brings until they’re on campus, but Brown’s got the speed to contribute early on in special teams.

Group Four: Expect to hear these names

They might not turn into instant stars, but expect to hear from this group in the same way you heard from Prince Shembo. Brian Kelly will find a way to get the player, and his talents, onto the field.

Eilar Hardy, DB — The safety depth still isn’t great, and Hardy could add some athleticism to the mix.
Matthias Farley, WR/DB — Raw athlete was singled out by Brian Kelly for being the potential sleeper of the freshman class. He’s 6-foot-4 and 200-pounds. His spot might be the red zone.
Ben Councell, OLB — With both Shembo and Danny Spond impressing, Councell might not have much of a role in the two-deep, but the lanky linebacker could be a terror on special teams.
Ishaq Williams, OLB — Call me crazy, but Williams might not see the field all that much this year. Sitting behind Darius Fleming and potentially a guy like Steve Filer, Williams could really learn a lot of football, even if it’s from the bench.
Everett Golson, QB — I think Golson will beat out Andrew Hendrix for the three-spot, but I don’t know if Dayne Crist (or Tommy Rees) will let him make much of a difference. Golson brings some much needed athleticism to the position and a nice change of pace.
Cam McDaniel, RB — If anything, McDaniel might walk onto campus as the best punt returner on the roster. (Something the Irish are clearly in need of getting fixed.)

Best Bets for Breakout

My failed attempt at an alliteration does give us a few great candidates for major immediate impact. If these guys deliver on what recruitniks drooled over, then Irish fans are going to be very happy with this group dominates as soon as early September.

Davaris Daniels, WR — His athleticism seems to jump off the screen when you watch him, but his lack of experience at wide receiver might hurt. That said, if he’s a quick learner, expect a trio of Michael Floyd, TJ Jones and Theo Riddick starting things out with guys like John Goodman, Deion Walker and Davaris Daniels breathing down their necks.
George Atkinson, RB/WR — Atkinson played in the Army All-American game as a safety. He’ll likely tote the football at Notre Dame, or pass catches depending on what the offense needs. His versatility could mean a lot to the Irish offense.
Stephon Tuitt, DE — We didn’t get a chance to see him this spring, but the man is the size of a redwood tree. If Tuitt comes into camp in shape, he’ll be playing quite a bit of football.
Aaron Lynch, DE — Come on, did you think it’d be anyone else? Lynch’s transcendent performance in the Blue-Gold spring game has people thinking the Irish have their first true pass rushing threat since Justin Tuck.

Spring positions to watch for revelations: DL & WR

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 05: Jerry Tillery #99 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackles Jerrod Heard #13 of the Texas Longhorns for a loss of yards during the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on September 5, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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If quarterback, rover and the early enrollees could be Notre Dame fans’ springtime Christmas thrills, what positions present as potential spots of coal?

Three former Irish players were invited to next week’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis: quarterback DeShone Kizer, defensive tackle Jarron Jones and defensive end Isaac Rochell. Losing two consistent defensive linemen leaves this year’s unit with some questions. Jones and Rochell combined for 100 tackles, 18 for loss and three sacks last season. Notre Dame’s returning defensive linemen combined to total 111 tackles and only 5.5 tackles for loss. To be clear, sacks are not included in that latter list because no returning defensive linemen recorded one. Among the returnees, junior tackle Jerry Tillery (37 tackles, three for loss) and senior end Andrew Trumbetti (26, 0.5) contributed solidly alongside the two NFL prospects.

This dearth of known and reliable linemen is a large part of why the potential transfer of Clemson graduate defensive tackle Scott Pagano is so intriguing. Pagano would immediately be a favorite to start, and if not that, at least rotate in heavily.

For now, though, Pagano remains a theoretical

By the end of spring practice, who already on campus will emerge alongside Tillery and Trumbetti in the Irish front? Senior ends Jay Hayes (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) and Jonathon Bonner (nine tackles) seem the most-likely candidates … aside from former four-star recruit and now rising sophomore Daelin Hayes. In his debut season, D. Hayes finished with 11 tackles.

Look for senior tackle Daniel Cage (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) to establish himself as Tillery’s immediate backup this spring, but that spot in the rotation will be up for competition all over again once four-star tackle Darnell Ewell (Lake Taylor High School; Norfolk, Va.) arrives on campus in the fall. His size and quickness should play right into new defensive coordinator Mike Elko’s system.

Equanimeous and Who?
Not only did Notre Dame bring in a graduate transfer at receiver in former Michigan wideout Freddy Canteen, but it has also already received the commitments of two four-star receivers in the 2018 recruiting class. The continued emphasis on the position reflects the lack of bona fide game-breakers currently on the roster.

Junior Equanimeous St. Brown established himself as the top Irish threat in 2016, and he should shine only further with junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush targeting him. Classmates often amplify each other’s success, simply due to the added shared reps innate to joining practice at the same time. With Torii Hunter, Jr., now pursuing a professional baseball career, who will prevent the secondary from focusing all its energies on St. Brown?

Canteen will not be with Notre Dame in the spring, as he does not graduate from Michigan until April. That will give a clear shot for the likes of juniors Chris Finke, C.J. Sanders and Miles Boykin, and sophomores Kevin Stepherson, Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool to establish themselves. Did that say “clear” shot? It should probably read, “a chance to separate from the crowd.”

If a genuine threat does not line up opposite St. Brown, his explosiveness will likely be greatly reduced by focused defensive scheming. Wimbush will need another target before 2018.

Of course, here is where one should acknowledge the millennia-tested fact: Coal under pressure becomes diamonds.

2016 Notre Dame’s win expectancy was 7.2
Sports Illustrated’s Chris Johnson named the Irish as his team most likely to dramatically improve its record in 2017. Johnson’s thinking is based, at least in part, on Notre Dame’s second-order win total having been 7.2 in 2016, compared to the four wins the Irish actually walked away with. That discrepancy was the largest in the country.

Second-order win totals reflect how many points a team should have scored and allowed based on offensive and defensive stats. In theory, this shines a light on how luck and chance factored into results. Naturally, losing seven games by one possession will often be reflected by a higher second-order win total.

“Notre Dame’s win-loss record belied a solid, if imperfect, squad that just couldn’t pull out close games…” Johnson writes. “The Irish may not get back into College Football Playoff contention in 2017, but they’re bound to post a few more Ws because of reversion to the mean.”

Admittedly, the small sample size of a football season reduces the applicability of metrics such as second- and third-order wins when compared to baseball and basketball.

Jones becomes Mack
A quick piece of housekeeping: Apparently junior tight end Alizé Jones has changed his name to Alizé Mack.

While Notre Dame’s roster may not reflect that change yet, it is reasonable to expect it will after its next update. The football program has consistently respected the intricacies of players’ name preferences. Tai-ler Jones becoming TJ Jones jumps to mind, for example.

Anyways, hopefully noting Mack’s name change here might reduce some confusion down the line. Probably not. How many readers possibly read to the actual bottom of an article? But hey, in good faith.

WR Lenzy makes 11th commitment, brings speed to Irish

lenzy
rivals.com
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At what point does an impressive recruiting roll become something more? When does it become a harbinger of things to come, even if not for a few seasons? How many notable commitments in a row establishes a class as special?

If the answer to any of the above is 11 commitments by the end of February, including five within two weeks, then Notre Dame is there following consensus four-star athlete Braden Lenzy’s announcement Thursday evening.

The Tigard High School (Portland, Ore) receiver/cornerback chose the Irish over offers from USC, Oregon and Michigan State, among a litany of others. In all, nine Pac-12 schools chased Lenzy—and a 10th, Washington, had shown interest—per rivals.com.

Lenzy will fit the leading 2018 need voiced by Irish coach Brian Kelly three weeks ago on National Signing Day 2017.

“Elite speed on offense will be a primary goal for us,” Kelly said Feb. 1. “Guys that can change the game on one possession. I think we’ll see that… We want a couple of home run hitters. We don’t care if they’re Darren Sproles’s size. We’re going to come off the board in terms of profile. We want some guys that can change the game on offense with elite speed.”

At 6-foot, 175 pounds, Lenzy is taller than Sproles’s 5-foot-6, but it is still his speed that drew Notre Dame’s interest.

“They made it clear they want me to do kickoff return and use me as a deep threat across the field,” he told Irish Illustrated. “Just being kind of an athlete, similar to what I’ve been doing already in high school, just on a bigger scale with a quarterback that can throw it a lot farther.”

Presuming Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush is that arm in 2018, throwing great distances should not be an issue. Between Lenzy and fellow 2018 commit Micah Jones, covering those distances should be a reasonable request, as well.

Lenzy brings Notre Dame’s class of 2018 to 11, including eight four-stars according to Rivals’ rating system. Current scholarship projections indicate the class will not be a large one, meaning the Irish coaching staff has already garnered the commitments of more than half the class. Once again, though, Kelly’s sentiment regarding recruiting timing should be remembered.

“We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

SWARBRICK’S TAKE ON RECRUITING
Kelly credited Director of Athletics Jack Swarbrick with much assistance in securing the country’s No. 13 recruiting class in 2017. A refresher on those comments:

“In a lot of instances, [Swarbrick] had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it’s going,” Kelly said. “There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future.”

Swarbrick did not dispute the factual nature of any of that in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, but he did contest the need for praising what he saw as part of his job, one of the preferred parts of his job, at that.

“I can’t say anything about this year felt all that different,” Swarbrick told Star reporter Laken Litman. “Some asked questions about the future of the program and can we compete for a national championship. And I would talk about the elements of the program we were focused on improving.”

Swarbrick and Litman discussed a number of items in the second-half of the interview released by the Star, including Notre Dame’s facilities, a possible early signing period in football and if the Oct. 8, 2016, game against North Carolina State should have been played. Spoiler: No. Then why was it? Go check it out.

Swarbrick also told Litman he likes to write in his free time.

“I tend to think strategically with a pen in my hand.” Swarbrick added he is currently scribbling away on where he thinks college athletics are headed.

This scribe, for one, would be most interested in skimming those legal pads.

Will Wimbush, Elko and the early enrollees surprise in spring practice?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 26: Fans congratulate Brandon Wimbush #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after he ran for a 58 yard touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Stadium on September 26, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Umass 62-27.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Exactly 59 days from today, the Irish will take the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Sure, they will be playing against themselves, but nonetheless, it will be somewhat-competitive football played in gold helmets.

For timing context, exactly 59 days ago, you looked beneath the Christmas tree to learn if Santa Claus left you season tickets, socks or coal. I got socks. They had some of that extra cushioning, so I considered them a suitable treat.

Whether you care about my argyles or not (you don’t), for many the Blue-Gold Game and Christmas morning hold similar excitement. That fact is apparently why Notre Dame director of athletics Jack Swarbrick does not concern himself when groups of alumni publicly lament his decisions, or lack thereof.

“I never worry about that,” Swarbirck told the Indianapolis Star in an exclusive interview you really should read. Go on, click the link, it will open in a new tab. You can come right back here when you are done.

“The hardest job in athletics is trying to generate passion in your program. If that sort of stuff bothers you, you can’t be the athletic director, head coach or the quarterback at Notre Dame.”

That very passion will undoubtedly lead to frame-by-frame discussions of video snippets from spring practice, parsing of each and every word Irish coach Brian Kelly says in quick interviews after those practices, and extreme pessimism and optimism about the 2017 season.

In the Christmas spirit, what toys could bring the must excitement during the spring unwrapping? Personally, the gift I was unsure of always brought the most joy. I would rather open an unexpected book than know about a charcoal-gray suit. In other words, at least for today, let’s look past the offensive line, the running backs and the inside linebackers. Instead, let’s look forward to learning about… (more…)

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)