On this day last year, the Irish football program was at rock bottom.
Notre Dame was collectively mourning the loss of Declan Sullivan. Football fans where openly questioning their new head coach, as Brian Kelly eschewed running the football with less than a minute to go against Tulsa for an endzone pass attempt to Michael Floyd. The move backfired when Tommy Rees‘ underthrown fade route was intercepted before David Ruffer had a chance to come in for the game-winning field goal attempt.
After battling out from under a 1-3 start, the Irish stubbed their way to a 4-5 start with ugly losses to Navy and Tulsa, and faced two of the season’s three hardest games ahead of them. A season that started with great expectations was now in full-scale salvage mode.
“The most important thing still is for us to get to six wins,” Kelly said then. “We’ve got to win two of three now. That’s our number one goal, to win two out of three games minimally to get to six wins.”
With a team that had collapsed the previous two Novembers, Kelly took his bye week to rebuild the psyche of his team, now missing its starting quarterback. In one of the great surprises of the last few years, Kelly’s squad came out against a heavily favored Utah team and drubbed the Utes 28-3. They locked in their automatic bowl bid and defeated an option attack in style soundly defeating Army in Yankee Stadium. Then, most impressively, settled a long suffering score against USC with a hard-fought 20-16 win.
The Irish’s demolition of Navy on Saturday did plenty to quell the stormy seas left behind from the Irish’s embarrassing loss to USC. But if the Irish are going to salvage a season that many had pegged ready for the BCS, they’ll need to put together an impressive November run, just like they did last year.
If the Irish are going to run the table until their Thanksgiving weekend date with Stanford, here are some things to consider:
DEPTH CHART
You never expect to make it through a season without some personnel losses, but unlike last year, the Irish are much healthier heading into the stretch run. Here’s a quick position-by-position breakdown of where the Irish stand relative to the beginning of the season:
QB — Better off. Sure, Dayne Crist swapped spots with Rees. But the development of Andrew Hendrix has the Irish staff at least comfortable with the idea of three quarterbacks seeing the field.
RB — Better off. Even in the most optimistic eyes, people didn’t see Jonas Gray putting together a senior season like this. Both he and Cierre Wood have taken big steps forward, and George Atkinson‘s special teams dominance has added another playmaker to the mix at a position not all that deep.
TE — Step backwards. The loss of Mike Ragone has hurt the depth chart and makes you wonder what the running game would be like with Ragone in on blocking sets. Tyler Eifert has been one of the best TEs in the country, but behind him the Irish trot out Alex Welch and Ben Koyack, two guys with no experience. Jake Golic may or may not be injured, but at best he simply provides depth behind Eifert, Welch and Koyack.
OL — Hanging on. The Irish haven’t lost any contributors but have loss depth, with Tate Nichols lost for the season. That’s pushed freshman Nick Martin into the two-deep at left tackle, where he’s joined by fellow true freshman Conor Hanratty, who backs up Trevor Robinson. Neither is the true “next man in,” with Andrew Nuss the backup guard and Christian Lombard the backup tackle.
WR — Holding steady. The Irish still haven’t developed a true No. 2 wide receiver behind Michael Floyd. Both Theo Riddick and TJ Jones have had their moments. Robby Toma has fought his way onto the field as well. But the future looks uncertain without No. 3 on the outside, and whether or not its Davaris Daniels or an impact recruit still on the fence, the future is uncertain.
DL — Step backwards. Losing Kapron Lewis-Moore, Sean Cwynar and Ethan Johnson for significant time is a huge blow to the defensive front, even if Stephon Tuitt, Aaron Lynch and Chase Hounshell have performed admirably. Before he tweaked his ankle, EJ had been one of the Irish’s most consistent performers. KLM had been playing some of his best football when a knee injury cost him the rest of his season. Defensive end was the Irish’s one true area of concern, and the losses hurt, even with the steady play of the freshmen.
LB — Holding steady. Once again, injuries have slowed down Danny Spond, but the only significant loss has been Anthony Rabasa, and the freshman wasn’t likely to see the field this year anyway. Manti Te’o seems to be on the right side of an ankle injury, Darius Fleming has played steady, and Troy Niklas has surprised. It’s not a particularly deep group, but the development of the players outside Fleming and Te’o has been good.
DB — Holding steady. There isn’t a lot of depth behind the frontline guys, but once again Harrison Smith, Gary Gray and Robert Blanton have been consistent performers. A healthy Jamoris Slaughter has made a nice difference too, with Slaughter’s versatility on display against Air Force and Navy. The Irish would be wise to keep getting Bennett Jackson and Lo Wood on the field.
SCHEDULE
The latest Sagarin rankings have the Irish ranked No. 26 in the country. Their schedule up until Stanford, Sagarin’s No. 6 team, is pretty reasonable, with Wake Forest ranked 59th, Maryland ranked 91st, and Boston College ranked 113th. But a closer look at Sagarin’s rankings shows just how uneven these match-ups really are:
The Demon Deacons’ No. 59 ranking is much better than Sagarin’s predictor ranking (a more accurate assessment of the team), which has Wake at No. 74. Maryland’s predictor ranking is a bit stronger than its No. 91 ranking, where Sagarin sees them closer to the No. 83 team. By any measure, Boston College is mediocre, with the predictor ranking of 102 only slightly better than the No. 113 combined ranking.
Probably the most surprisingly part of Sagarin’s rank? Just how well regarded the Irish are from a scoring margin point-of-view. The Irish are the No. 11 team in Sagarin’s ratings, better than teams like South Carolina, Nebraska and Arkansas — three of the top ten team teams in the country, according to the AP Poll.
THE TREND
If you want a staggering stat, just look at the difference between what Brian Kelly has done in November to what Charlie Weis and the Irish did after his strong start. In Weis’ last three years with the Irish, he was a miserable 3-11 in the home stretch of the season, with two of those wins coming in the historically terrible 2007 season. Compare that to Kelly’s record:
2010: 3-0
2009: 3-0
2008: 5-0
2007: 3-1
Kelly’s undefeated November was the first for Notre Dame since Weis’ debut season. After watching the Irish run out of gas after promising starts in 2008 and 2009, Kelly reversed a trend that doomed Notre Dame. With the schedule setting up nicely until a trip to Palo Alto, the Irish have a chance to race up the rankings, even if the three early losses lowered the ceiling on the season.
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- papadec - Nov 1, 2011 at 2:40 AM
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I’m thinkin’ a 42-24 ND win. GO IRISH!!!!!!!
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- jerseyshorendfan1 - Nov 1, 2011 at 4:35 AM
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Keith, what do you make of the Perkins de-commitment? Aberration or developing trend? Or does the kid just want to see some other part of the country, other than South Bend?
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- xavty - Nov 1, 2011 at 11:42 AM
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I’m nervous about Tee Shepard and Deontay Greenberry. They just visited ASU and apparently were pretty high on them. This coupled with the rumors that Tee will not be allowed to enroll early really has me tense…
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- tlndma - Nov 1, 2011 at 1:02 PM
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Perkins decommiting and not having picked another school says to me that ND has lost some interest here. At least they are playing hardball with him taking other visits. Something they have not done with other commits. I expect ND to go after Odenigbo and Ekanem hard now. (both are OLBs)
Tee Shepard is enrolloing early, that situation has been cleared up. Remember, he transfered and gave up his senior season to be able to EE at ND.Greenbury will follow.
Apologies for any names misspelled.
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- cacacheese - Nov 2, 2011 at 9:42 PM
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Tee is enrolling in January as planned. Stop reading Bleacher Report and get yer facts straight, son.
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- 9irish - Nov 1, 2011 at 6:23 AM
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Hmmmmm….I don’t know. Playing some less than familiar teams in the next few weeks, so we’ll see. I think they’ll do well.
I was curious, Keith, what is the general consensus on the new domes?
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- rarmitt - Nov 1, 2011 at 9:29 AM
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why do we continually talk about ‘running the table until Stanford’ after the Irish beat a subpar opponent. This is why the doomsayers come out of the wordwork after every loss. How about we focus on Wake and worry about the BC, Terps and Cardinals those weeks?
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- fitz79 - Nov 1, 2011 at 10:32 AM
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Agree with Irish9, some unfamiliar opponents the next couple weeks, but that should make things interesting and in general I still like ND’s odds. Next weekend at Wake promises to be the toughest game I think until Stanford as Wake has surprised this year and played quite well against some quality ACC opponents. And once again with ND coming to town you know they’re gonna be extra pumped (dare I say their “super bowl,” nah, let’s not go there!) Ditto with Maryland. I saw Maryland’s season opener when they battled with Miami until the last moment and looked pretty good. But also saw the Maryland score where they were demolished by Temple, so not sure what to expect out of them. Hopefully those new ugly uniforms won’t distract us! BC is a definitely weak this year and we should dominate. Interesting, playing 3 ACC opponents in a row now and there’s been some talk linking ND with the ACC of late. Of course Stanford’s a beast but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Go Irish!
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- nolanwiffle - Nov 1, 2011 at 12:15 PM
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Notre Dame will trounce the Terps. Spoken as a Marylander who follows that program.
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- 9irish - Nov 1, 2011 at 5:00 PM
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Agree about Wake Forest, kind of worries me (mostly because I don’t know about them…but they have been competitive) And it will be a madhouse, that would be a HUGE win for them
Please tell me it’s not another night game…I haven’t checked.
Go Irish
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- 9irish - Nov 1, 2011 at 5:11 PM
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I checked…8pm…..ugh.
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- mbutch6 - Nov 1, 2011 at 11:24 AM
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“The Irish are the No. 11 team in Sagarin’s ratings, better than teams like South Carolina, Nebraska and Arkansas — three of the top ten team teams in the country, according to the AP Poll.” After watching ALOT of college football this year, I have no doubt that the Irish are a top 15 team. It kills me they way they have lost games. They are a good football team and BK and his staff are doing a good job.
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- dmacirish - Nov 1, 2011 at 11:55 AM
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i 100% agree with you mbutch6. i understand that the record is why they are out but lets look at it this way – they can play with the michigans -ranked 11 i think- and the msu -ranked 16 i think- and the usc -yes we lost but it was a horrible game, i would take a rematch and say 2 out of 3. there is definite potential for top 15 if a fumble here or a miscue there go in another direction. not blown out by anybody yet this year, just unfortunate.
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- NDfan1224 - Nov 1, 2011 at 12:30 PM
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There is not doubt that we have top 15 potential but there is a bid difference between have the potential and actually being in the top 15. I keep saying the Irish have so much talent and they do. They just need to play with confidence and act like a top 15 team they don’t come out fired up all the time we need that. ND needs to get on track and start winning and not accepting anything less, when your on a good team you know it you go into to games knowing you’re going to win every one knows it we need to start getting these kids in a groove now and keep that groove going so when future domer graduate they come out of ND only losing 5-8 games in their careers at ND. Michael Floyd the best WR ND has ever had has 20 loses on his resume and there is still games left. The talent ND brings in shouldn’t have that many loses its time to start winning ND has the potential and the athletes to go 42-10 in the next 4 seasons. Go Irish
http://ndgdn.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/59/
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- dmacirish - Nov 1, 2011 at 3:28 PM
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rankings are rankings, there is so much political hype involved with them. all i can say is notre dame is a team i look forward to watching for many reasons. times like 2007 was just because i enjoyed watching them, never felt like they could win every game they played but hey its nd and i could have a couple while watching them. 2011 has me feeling like there is not a game on their schedule that they cant win. they have the talent, the coaches, and the mentallity to win. i dont think they are a top 5 or a top 10 team but definitely a top 15. they have lost one game and given 2 others away. i would make the same argument about rankings even if they were in the undefeated positions right now. is lsu better then alabama? according to the rankings they are – we will see on saturday. are they better then stanford or boise state? according to some peoples opinions they are therefore according to the rankings they are, this we will probably never know. with ncaa one game makes the difference in 10 ranking spots but that doesnt mean the team is not a top 10 team. USC is not a top 25 team right now because they cant be ranked – doesnt mean they arent a top 10 team. i dont like them much but they beat us and held their own against a top 5 team. have to be pretty good huh. rankings are just rankings. go irish
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- runners00 - Nov 1, 2011 at 4:03 PM
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I think the November comments are nice — that we rallied pretty well in November last year and Kelly has done so in the past — but not necessarily something we should count on this year.
Wake and Stanford are very good teams (or, at least their records seem to suggest that they’re very good). Wake’s beaten Florida State, a very good football team that has lost a couple of very close battles. They’ve got a decent offense that is prone to fumble a bit (sound familiar?). They’re playing home following a loss to North Carolina.
They’re beatable, but this team has to show up and work hard at every practice and throughout every game that remains on their schedule. Wake is good. They will make us earn every yard. We have to do it. If we take care of the ball and we continue to fight hard on defense, we should beat Wake. BC and Maryland are having down years but they’re still fairly strong football programs that are happy to put forth a Super Bowl effort against us.
We shouldn’t be thinking about Palo Alto, but Stanford is excellent — the team that we want to become. Really. I know it sounds ridiculous but Stanford — Stanford! — does everything really well. They tackle. They block. They have an excellent quarterback. They play a tough defense. They’re much more than Luck.
So, November will be a challenge for Kelly and his staff. It starts by beating a good Wake Forest football team.
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- domer77blowsgoats - Nov 1, 2011 at 4:07 PM
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The real question at hand is whether Nudeman can keep November momentum going – the odds are stacked against, only time will tell:
Depth Chart
– he isn’t getting any younger
– the boys at the mill are getting agitated w/ his anti-union rhetoric
– the compounded the years of exposure to mill dust greatly exacerbating what those in the industry refer to as “acute mill dementia” – symptoms: 1. incoherent postings 2. incessant rambling 3. name calling 4. contradictory comments 5. increased use of improper languageThe Schedule
– the mill is gearing up for holiday fruit cake season – time for two-a-days and on 3 weeks off 1 – Saragin ranking #1The Trend
2008 – 5 thumbs up 120 thumbs down
2009 – 3 thumbs up 167 thumbs down
2010 – 1 thumb up 328 thumbs downThe trend speaks for itself – as popularity of this blog has grown over the years as has the discerning taste (or should i say distaste) for meaningful and substantive board posts is clearly seen in the exponential increase in the ever indicative “thumbs down” rating
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- nudeman - Nov 1, 2011 at 4:45 PM
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goat
Good to hear from you man. How was the Rees Family Reunion?Peace and love brother, and God Bless you and the goat and Rees familes.
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- jomilly - Nov 1, 2011 at 4:13 PM
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November starts with a recruit decommit. Im not sure what i am most disappointed in by this news ND not being able to hold down is backyard, or a hometown boy turning his back. Well hopefully he just wants to look around and like last year nd gets him back by signing day.
