manti-teo getty images

All hands on deck for Stanford

10 Comments

At this time of year, no football team is entirely healthy. (Just ask the guys in Palo Alto.) But as the Irish head into their final — and most important — game of the year, let’s take a look at the positional depth chart and see just how well the Irish are hanging on.

Brian Kelly called this Saturday a “one-game season,” and his Tuesday press conference this afternoon will give us a better idea of where the Irish stand from a health perspective. But let’s run down the position grouping and see how well the Irish have kept things together.

QUARTERBACK

Tommy Rees, Soph.
Dayne Crist, Sr.
Andrew Hendrix, Soph.
Everett Golson, Fr.
Matthew Mulvey, Sr.

Everybody’s healthy for the Irish, though you have to wonder if the knee injury Tommy Rees suffered against USC is still limiting his mobility. (His mobility was never a strong suit, but he’s still wearing a knee brace.) Behind Rees, Crist seems ready for action, and I fully expect to see a package with Andrew Hendrix on Saturday as well. There’s a better chance you’ll see Mulvey than Golson, as the freshman has saved a year of eligibility this fall.

RUNNING BACK

Cierre Wood, Jr.
Jonas Gray, Sr.
George Atkinson, Fr.
Cam McDaniel, Fr.
Theo Riddick, Jr.

The Irish depth chart took a big hit with Jonas Gray going down on Saturday. The Irish will miss his power, explosiveness, and ability to get in the end zone on Saturday. Bryan Driskell of IrishSportsDaily.com wrote a nice piece on the Irish’s running attack without Jonas and he points to several reasons to be optimistic.

Of course, we’ll probably find out more today on the status of Theo Riddick joining the running back depth chart for Saturday. The first step in that process will be making sure he’s healthy enough to play, especially on a rain-ravaged playing surface that makes the grass at Notre Dame Stadium look like Augusta National.

If Riddick is unable to go, expect to see a ton of Cierre Wood. The junior is coming off his least prolific game of the season against Boston College, but will need to carry the workload. Looking for more optimism? In the five games Wood has carried the ball over 20 times, he’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

As for Atkinson and McDaniel, it’ll be interesting if they’ll be used truly as the “next man in,” or if the offensive game plan will be tailored to their strong suits. I don’t know if there’s any reason to think Atkinson has the comfort, vision, or size to successfully run the ball between the tackles, but we’ll find out on Saturday.

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Floyd, Sr.
TJ Jones, Soph.
Theo Riddick, Jr.
Robby Toma, Jr.
John Goodman, Sr.

As we just mentioned, this group may or may not be missing Riddick, either because of injury or because of a shift to running back. Either way, it’s going to depend on utilizing Michael Floyd both in the short possession game, and also springing him vertically. We’ve hit on it multiple times, but Rees is going to need to have an accurate day down field to take advantage of a Stanford defense that’s banged up.

Robby Toma has shown himself a capable fill-in at slot and a quick friend of the quarterback, but if the Irish passing game is going to get on track, they’ll need some consistency out of TJ Jones, who looked better on Saturday, logging the most catches he’s had in a game since Purdue.

TIGHT END

Tyler Eifert, Jr.
Mike Ragone, Sr.
Alex Welch, Soph.
Ben Koyack, Fr.
Jake Golic, Jr.

A week after making eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown, Tyler Eifert had one of his quieter games of the year, making only two catches against Boston College. The Mackey Award finalist is one of the best tight ends in the country, and against a team that utilizes its tight ends proficiently, the Irish will need to target Eifert consistently on Saturday night.

Obviously the loss of Mike Ragone isn’t a new one, but his in-line blocking is severely missed. Sophomore Alex Welch and freshman Ben Koyack are doing admirable jobs and the future looks bright even if Eifert decides to look at the NFL after this season.

It hasn’t been publicly talked about by Kelly, but it sounds like Jake Golic has a serious back injury. The news comes via an IrishIllustrated.com interview with blue-chip recruit Tyler McNamara, who explained where the Irish sit at the position.

“It all depends on if Eifert leaves for the draft this year, which is very possible, and then (Jake) Golic has a back injury, a real severe one, so if those two don’t play they don’t have too much tight end depth,” McNamara said. “If Eifert comes back playing early isn’t an option, but if he elects to go in the draft then it’s a pretty distinct possibility.”

Losing Eifert would be a big loss to the Irish, but they have solid depth behind him and are obviously planning for the future.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Zack Martin, Jr.
Chris Watt, Jr.
Braxston Cave, Sr.
Trevor Robinson, Sr.
Taylor Dever, Sr.
Mike Golic, Sr.
Andrew Nuss, Sr.
Christian Lombard, Soph.

The offensive line had done a very good job of staying healthy until Cave went down against Wake Forest, pushing little used Mike Golic into the lineup at center. Golic has filled in admirably, but the offensive line hasn’t played to the level that it did in October, when it didn’t allow a sack and put together several impressive rushing performances.

Against Stanford, the focus should be on the Irish front five, who will absolutely need to win the line of scrimmage and get the Irish in favorable down and distances if they’re going to have a chance at beating the Cardinal.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Kapron Lewis-Moore, Sr.
Sean Cwynar, Sr.
Louis Nix, Soph.
Ethan Johnson, Sr.
Aaron Lynch, Fr.
Stephon Tuitt, Fr.
Hafis Williams, Sr.
Kona Schwenke, Soph.
Brandon Newman, Sr.

The most impressive thing about the performance of Mike Elston’s defensive line is just how good they’ve played with how many injuries they’ve suffered. There have been lines through names like Cwynar, Johnson, and potentially Tuitt, but the front line hasn’t missed a beat thanks to great play by youngsters Nix, Lynch and Tuitt.

We’ll likely find out more on the status of Tuitt this afternoon when Kelly gives the press a health update.

LINEBACKER

Darius Fleming, Sr.
Dan Fox, Jr.
Manti Te’o, Jr.
Prince Shembo, Soph.
Steve Filer, Sr.
Carlo Calabrese, Jr.
Kendall Moore, Soph.
Danny Spond, Soph.
Troy Niklas, Fr.
Ishaq Williams, Fr.

The loss of Steve Filer robbed the Irish of a potential pass-rush specialist, but for the most part the Irish linebackers are intact. If the Irish have a weakness in the linebacking corps, it’s at the drop linebacker position, where the Irish will be tested this week with Stanford possessing a strong running game, but an even stronger quarterback that’ll test the Irish linebackers in their drops and put Prince Shembo in a position where he’ll need to quickly identify run or pass, often times in play-action.

The Irish have gotten steady but uneven play from the combination of Dan Fox and Carlo Calabrese opposite Manti Te’o, and Darius Fleming hasn’t put together the kind of numbers people had hoped for this season. That said, this group is getting better at this time of year, aided by the ascent of Troy Niklas.

SECONDARY

Robert Blanton
Jamoris Slaughter
Harrison Smith
Gary Gray
Zeke Motta
Lo Wood
Austin Collinsworth
Bennett Jackson
Dan McCarthy

After getting bitten by injury last season, the Irish secondary has stayed relatively healthy this year, allowing Jamoris Slaughter to play like the difference-maker the coaching staff thought they had last year. Robert Blanton and Gary Gray both have had their moments of weakness this year (with Gray’s a bit more visible), but both corners will likely be asked to match-up one-on-one with a wide receiving corps that lacks game-breakers, especially after injuries have taken their toll on the Cardinal depth chart.

If you’re looking for someone that’s made their move up the charts, look at Austin Collinsworth. The sophomore was a dynamic special teams player last year, but has found his way into the nickel and dime package, giving the Irish another safety that’s capable of playing in coverage, allowing Jamoris Slaughter to slide down into the drop linebacker spot to make plays close to the line of scrimmage.

Spring positions to watch for revelations: DL & WR

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 05: Jerry Tillery #99 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackles Jerrod Heard #13 of the Texas Longhorns for a loss of yards during the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on September 5, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Getty Images
5 Comments

If quarterback, rover and the early enrollees could be Notre Dame fans’ springtime Christmas thrills, what positions present as potential spots of coal?

Three former Irish players were invited to next week’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis: quarterback DeShone Kizer, defensive tackle Jarron Jones and defensive end Isaac Rochell. Losing two consistent defensive linemen leaves this year’s unit with some questions. Jones and Rochell combined for 100 tackles, 18 for loss and three sacks last season. Notre Dame’s returning defensive linemen combined to total 111 tackles and only 5.5 tackles for loss. To be clear, sacks are not included in that latter list because no returning defensive linemen recorded one. Among the returnees, junior tackle Jerry Tillery (37 tackles, three for loss) and senior end Andrew Trumbetti (26, 0.5) contributed solidly alongside the two NFL prospects.

This dearth of known and reliable linemen is a large part of why the potential transfer of Clemson graduate defensive tackle Scott Pagano is so intriguing. Pagano would immediately be a favorite to start, and if not that, at least rotate in heavily.

For now, though, Pagano remains a theoretical

By the end of spring practice, who already on campus will emerge alongside Tillery and Trumbetti in the Irish front? Senior ends Jay Hayes (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) and Jonathon Bonner (nine tackles) seem the most-likely candidates … aside from former four-star recruit and now rising sophomore Daelin Hayes. In his debut season, D. Hayes finished with 11 tackles.

Look for senior tackle Daniel Cage (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) to establish himself as Tillery’s immediate backup this spring, but that spot in the rotation will be up for competition all over again once four-star tackle Darnell Ewell (Lake Taylor High School; Norfolk, Va.) arrives on campus in the fall. His size and quickness should play right into new defensive coordinator Mike Elko’s system.

Equanimeous and Who?
Not only did Notre Dame bring in a graduate transfer at receiver in former Michigan wideout Freddy Canteen, but it has also already received the commitments of two four-star receivers in the 2018 recruiting class. The continued emphasis on the position reflects the lack of bona fide game-breakers currently on the roster.

Junior Equanimeous St. Brown established himself as the top Irish threat in 2016, and he should shine only further with junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush targeting him. Classmates often amplify each other’s success, simply due to the added shared reps innate to joining practice at the same time. With Torii Hunter, Jr., now pursuing a professional baseball career, who will prevent the secondary from focusing all its energies on St. Brown?

Canteen will not be with Notre Dame in the spring, as he does not graduate from Michigan until April. That will give a clear shot for the likes of juniors Chris Finke, C.J. Sanders and Miles Boykin, and sophomores Kevin Stepherson, Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool to establish themselves. Did that say “clear” shot? It should probably read, “a chance to separate from the crowd.”

If a genuine threat does not line up opposite St. Brown, his explosiveness will likely be greatly reduced by focused defensive scheming. Wimbush will need another target before 2018.

Of course, here is where one should acknowledge the millennia-tested fact: Coal under pressure becomes diamonds.

2016 Notre Dame’s win expectancy was 7.2
Sports Illustrated’s Chris Johnson named the Irish as his team most likely to dramatically improve its record in 2017. Johnson’s thinking is based, at least in part, on Notre Dame’s second-order win total having been 7.2 in 2016, compared to the four wins the Irish actually walked away with. That discrepancy was the largest in the country.

Second-order win totals reflect how many points a team should have scored and allowed based on offensive and defensive stats. In theory, this shines a light on how luck and chance factored into results. Naturally, losing seven games by one possession will often be reflected by a higher second-order win total.

“Notre Dame’s win-loss record belied a solid, if imperfect, squad that just couldn’t pull out close games…” Johnson writes. “The Irish may not get back into College Football Playoff contention in 2017, but they’re bound to post a few more Ws because of reversion to the mean.”

Admittedly, the small sample size of a football season reduces the applicability of metrics such as second- and third-order wins when compared to baseball and basketball.

Jones becomes Mack
A quick piece of housekeeping: Apparently junior tight end Alizé Jones has changed his name to Alizé Mack.

While Notre Dame’s roster may not reflect that change yet, it is reasonable to expect it will after its next update. The football program has consistently respected the intricacies of players’ name preferences. Tai-ler Jones becoming TJ Jones jumps to mind, for example.

Anyways, hopefully noting Mack’s name change here might reduce some confusion down the line. Probably not. How many readers possibly read to the actual bottom of an article? But hey, in good faith.

WR Lenzy makes 11th commitment, brings speed to Irish

lenzy
rivals.com
29 Comments

At what point does an impressive recruiting roll become something more? When does it become a harbinger of things to come, even if not for a few seasons? How many notable commitments in a row establishes a class as special?

If the answer to any of the above is 11 commitments by the end of February, including five within two weeks, then Notre Dame is there following consensus four-star athlete Braden Lenzy’s announcement Thursday evening.

The Tigard High School (Portland, Ore) receiver/cornerback chose the Irish over offers from USC, Oregon and Michigan State, among a litany of others. In all, nine Pac-12 schools chased Lenzy—and a 10th, Washington, had shown interest—per rivals.com.

Lenzy will fit the leading 2018 need voiced by Irish coach Brian Kelly three weeks ago on National Signing Day 2017.

“Elite speed on offense will be a primary goal for us,” Kelly said Feb. 1. “Guys that can change the game on one possession. I think we’ll see that… We want a couple of home run hitters. We don’t care if they’re Darren Sproles’s size. We’re going to come off the board in terms of profile. We want some guys that can change the game on offense with elite speed.”

At 6-foot, 175 pounds, Lenzy is taller than Sproles’s 5-foot-6, but it is still his speed that drew Notre Dame’s interest.

“They made it clear they want me to do kickoff return and use me as a deep threat across the field,” he told Irish Illustrated. “Just being kind of an athlete, similar to what I’ve been doing already in high school, just on a bigger scale with a quarterback that can throw it a lot farther.”

Presuming Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush is that arm in 2018, throwing great distances should not be an issue. Between Lenzy and fellow 2018 commit Micah Jones, covering those distances should be a reasonable request, as well.

Lenzy brings Notre Dame’s class of 2018 to 11, including eight four-stars according to Rivals’ rating system. Current scholarship projections indicate the class will not be a large one, meaning the Irish coaching staff has already garnered the commitments of more than half the class. Once again, though, Kelly’s sentiment regarding recruiting timing should be remembered.

“We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

SWARBRICK’S TAKE ON RECRUITING
Kelly credited Director of Athletics Jack Swarbrick with much assistance in securing the country’s No. 13 recruiting class in 2017. A refresher on those comments:

“In a lot of instances, [Swarbrick] had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it’s going,” Kelly said. “There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future.”

Swarbrick did not dispute the factual nature of any of that in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, but he did contest the need for praising what he saw as part of his job, one of the preferred parts of his job, at that.

“I can’t say anything about this year felt all that different,” Swarbrick told Star reporter Laken Litman. “Some asked questions about the future of the program and can we compete for a national championship. And I would talk about the elements of the program we were focused on improving.”

Swarbrick and Litman discussed a number of items in the second-half of the interview released by the Star, including Notre Dame’s facilities, a possible early signing period in football and if the Oct. 8, 2016, game against North Carolina State should have been played. Spoiler: No. Then why was it? Go check it out.

Swarbrick also told Litman he likes to write in his free time.

“I tend to think strategically with a pen in my hand.” Swarbrick added he is currently scribbling away on where he thinks college athletics are headed.

This scribe, for one, would be most interested in skimming those legal pads.

Will Wimbush, Elko and the early enrollees surprise in spring practice?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 26: Fans congratulate Brandon Wimbush #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after he ran for a 58 yard touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Stadium on September 26, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Umass 62-27.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Getty Images
39 Comments

Exactly 59 days from today, the Irish will take the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Sure, they will be playing against themselves, but nonetheless, it will be somewhat-competitive football played in gold helmets.

For timing context, exactly 59 days ago, you looked beneath the Christmas tree to learn if Santa Claus left you season tickets, socks or coal. I got socks. They had some of that extra cushioning, so I considered them a suitable treat.

Whether you care about my argyles or not (you don’t), for many the Blue-Gold Game and Christmas morning hold similar excitement. That fact is apparently why Notre Dame director of athletics Jack Swarbrick does not concern himself when groups of alumni publicly lament his decisions, or lack thereof.

“I never worry about that,” Swarbirck told the Indianapolis Star in an exclusive interview you really should read. Go on, click the link, it will open in a new tab. You can come right back here when you are done.

“The hardest job in athletics is trying to generate passion in your program. If that sort of stuff bothers you, you can’t be the athletic director, head coach or the quarterback at Notre Dame.”

That very passion will undoubtedly lead to frame-by-frame discussions of video snippets from spring practice, parsing of each and every word Irish coach Brian Kelly says in quick interviews after those practices, and extreme pessimism and optimism about the 2017 season.

In the Christmas spirit, what toys could bring the must excitement during the spring unwrapping? Personally, the gift I was unsure of always brought the most joy. I would rather open an unexpected book than know about a charcoal-gray suit. In other words, at least for today, let’s look past the offensive line, the running backs and the inside linebackers. Instead, let’s look forward to learning about… (more…)

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Getty Images
41 Comments

Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)