Oct 31, 2012, 8:27 PM EDT
Third in the BCS Standings. Fourth in the Coaches’ Poll. Strong with the computers. Weak with the pollsters. A November schedule that softens before USC. Opponents losing games that could cost Notre Dame in the end.
The variety of permutations and enormity of the variables that go into determining the BCS formula makes most football fans dizzy, and more importantly excited that we finally have a playoff coming in 2014. But until then, the BCS, and its much-discussed formula, is the only way to find the two teams that’ll play for the national title.
That proposition has many Notre Dame fans worried. Could the Fighting Irish, who many believed had the toughest schedule in the country heading into the season, be kept out of the title game even if they go undefeated?
The short answer: Yes. The slightly longer answer is: Don’t get too worked up about it yet.
Paul Bessire of PredictionMachine.com has some fun statistics that should have Notre Dame fans feeling a little less worried about the possibility of being left out.
For those worried that Notre Dame won’t have time to end up in the top two in the country, consider that there’s roughly a 1% chance that the Irish, Alabama, Kansas State and Oregon will still stand unblemished at the end of the year.
- Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 2 (after conference title games): 0.06% (or 1-in-1718)
- Chances Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 1.22% (or 1-in-82)
- Chances Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 2.23% (or 1-in-45)
- Chances Oregon is undefeated and Kansas State and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 8.79% (or 1-in-11)
- Chances Notre Dame is undefeated and Kansas State and Oregon are not on December 2: 22.96% (or 1-in-4)
- Chances Kansas State is undefeated and Oregon and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 13.31% (or 1-in-8)
- Chances that Louisville is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 2.62% (or 1-in-38)
- Chances that Alabama is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 15.83% (or 1-in-6)
- Chances that both Alabama and Oregon lose in their respective conference championship games: 4.28% (or 1-in-23)
- Chances that no FBS team is undefeated on December 2: 9.35% (or 1-in-11)
- Chances that Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State all have at least one loss on December 2: 15.75% (or 1-in-6)
Of the four teams with realistic hopes of making the national title game (Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State, and Oregon), here’s Bessire’s breakdown on the likelihood of each team actually running the table.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Western Carolina)
Undefeated Chances: 54.7%
Closest Remaining Game: at LSU (November 2)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Games Remaining: 4
Undefeated Chances 39.8%
Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 24)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Games Remaining: 3
Undefeated Chances: 28.8%
Closest Remaining Game: at Wisconsin (November 17)
Kansas State Wildcats
Games Remaining: 4
Undefeated Chances: 27.7%
Closest Remaining Game: at TCU (November 10)
Games Remaining: 5 (including conference championship game)
Undefeated Chances: 20.2%
Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 2 – at Oregon State is close)
Games Remaining: 4
Undefeated Chances: 16.6%
Closest Remaining Game: at Rutgers (November 29)
Notre Dame actually has the second best shot of the teams remaining to win out, and the Irish will beat the Trojans 65% of the time according to these statistics. (You’d have taken those chances in the preseason, wouldn’t you have?)
So while the Irish aren’t a lock to play in the national title game, they’re actually sitting better than you’d expect. And of course, this is just a friendly reminder that it’s still too early to start worrying about the BCS.
May 20, 2015, 2:51 PM EDT
Monday, Notre Dame announced that 16 student-athletes would be spending three weeks in South Africa, earning credits in a new study abroad program examining the cultural, historical and social effects racism has had on South Africa. Five more will be going to Greece, learning about archaeological sites and museums in Ancient Corinth.
May 20, 2015, 1:17 PM EDT
If you were looking for anything official out of Notre Dame after Everett Golson announced his intention to play next season at Florida State, think again. But yesterday, Brian Kelly was the head speaker at the ninth annual West Michigan Sports Commission Luncheon in Grand Rapids, and he shared a few comments about the move.
May 19, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
After graduating from Notre Dame over the weekend, Everett Golson has decided to play out his eligibility at Florida State. The former Irish quarterback visited Tallahassee last week before coming to a decision on Tuesday morning, according to Fox Sports’ Bruce Feldman.
May 19, 2015, 12:37 PM EDT
In a profile with Sports Illustrated, KeiVarae Russell spoke on the record about his departure from Notre Dame, his impending return, and the motivations that push him.
May 18, 2015, 2:35 PM EDT
In a one-question, part-two of the mailbag, a reader points out one of the most important factors entering the 2015 season: Brian VanGorder’s defense.
May 15, 2015, 9:18 AM EDT
For as much as we’re ready to move on from the quarterback talk… we’re not really ready to move on from the quarterback talk.
May 14, 2015, 11:41 AM EDT
We close out our post-spring stock reports with a look at the defensive line.
May 13, 2015, 2:47 PM EDT
For all the attention paid to Everett Golson’s decision to leave Notre Dame, the Irish might be welcoming back an even better football player when KeiVarae Russell returns this June.
May 13, 2015, 11:12 AM EDT
The mailbag is open. Also, a quick bit of housekeeping as we address some problems in the comments.
May 12, 2015, 2:03 AM EDT
First came the news that Everett Golson was leaving. Now comes the circus, as we take to the rumor mill to speculate where Golson ends up.
May 11, 2015, 12:18 PM EDT
We continue our look at the post-spring depth charts with the linebackers. A talented group of athletes might provide one of the most misleading depth charts in recent memory.
May 9, 2015, 2:36 PM EDT
Just to get our mind off the big quarterback news. Let’s tackle a few mailbag questions… that don’t talk about the guys playing behind center.
May 8, 2015, 1:51 PM EDT
The dust has settled. Everett Golson is leaving Notre Dame. So while the rest of the story will take chase—the wheres and the whys eventually coming out—the only thing that’s important for the Irish is looking at what remains, and how the program moves on from here.
May 7, 2015, 7:11 PM EDT
Incoming freshman defensive end Bo Wallace tweeted that he’s no longer going to attend Notre Dame.
May 7, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
It’s official: Everett Golson is transferring.
May 7, 2015, 1:37 PM EDT
With finals nearly finished and Everett Golson on track to earn his degree in the coming weeks, ESPN’s Brett McMurphy broke the news that Irish fans had to be dreading.
May 6, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
One of the branches on Notre Dame’s NFL tight end tree is retiring. Former Irish star John Carlson, a former second-round pick who spent seven seasons as a professional, is stepping away from football. Carlson played for the Irish from 2003-07 and spent time with the Seahawks, Vikings and the Cardinals.
May 6, 2015, 11:08 AM EDT
The mailbag is open. Drop your questions below or on Twitter @KeithArnold.
May 5, 2015, 12:43 PM EDT
With the majority of Notre Dame’s starting lineup returning for 2015, the Irish spent spring practice knowing what their team would look like. But for Brian VanGorder and new secondary coach Todd Lyght, getting improvement out of the returning depth chart was critical.
May 4, 2015, 4:55 PM EDT
When Brian Kelly hired Boise State offensive coordinator Mike Sanford, Notre Dame added a young coach who was among the hottest rising stars in the country. A year after flirting with Lincoln Riley and eventually deciding on staying in-house as Mike Denbrock took over the offense, Kelly went outside his coaching circle, adding Sanford to the staff, an assistant who could “turn the room upside down.”
- After high-profile academic mistakes, Notre Dame wisely examining new options 17
- Everett Golson transferring to Florida State 101
- KeiVarae Russell’s Return (or the greatest story we’re not talking about) 31
- Five things we’ve learned: Analyzing Everett Golson’s departure 125
- It’s official: Everett Golson will transfer (UPDATED) 171
- ESPN Report: Golson plans to transfer 18