Oct 31, 2012, 8:27 PM EST
Third in the BCS Standings. Fourth in the Coaches’ Poll. Strong with the computers. Weak with the pollsters. A November schedule that softens before USC. Opponents losing games that could cost Notre Dame in the end.
The variety of permutations and enormity of the variables that go into determining the BCS formula makes most football fans dizzy, and more importantly excited that we finally have a playoff coming in 2014. But until then, the BCS, and its much-discussed formula, is the only way to find the two teams that’ll play for the national title.
That proposition has many Notre Dame fans worried. Could the Fighting Irish, who many believed had the toughest schedule in the country heading into the season, be kept out of the title game even if they go undefeated?
The short answer: Yes. The slightly longer answer is: Don’t get too worked up about it yet.
Paul Bessire of PredictionMachine.com has some fun statistics that should have Notre Dame fans feeling a little less worried about the possibility of being left out.
For those worried that Notre Dame won’t have time to end up in the top two in the country, consider that there’s roughly a 1% chance that the Irish, Alabama, Kansas State and Oregon will still stand unblemished at the end of the year.
- Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 2 (after conference title games): 0.06% (or 1-in-1718)
- Chances Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 1.22% (or 1-in-82)
- Chances Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 2.23% (or 1-in-45)
- Chances Oregon is undefeated and Kansas State and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 8.79% (or 1-in-11)
- Chances Notre Dame is undefeated and Kansas State and Oregon are not on December 2: 22.96% (or 1-in-4)
- Chances Kansas State is undefeated and Oregon and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 13.31% (or 1-in-8)
- Chances that Louisville is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 2.62% (or 1-in-38)
- Chances that Alabama is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 15.83% (or 1-in-6)
- Chances that both Alabama and Oregon lose in their respective conference championship games: 4.28% (or 1-in-23)
- Chances that no FBS team is undefeated on December 2: 9.35% (or 1-in-11)
- Chances that Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State all have at least one loss on December 2: 15.75% (or 1-in-6)
Of the four teams with realistic hopes of making the national title game (Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State, and Oregon), here’s Bessire’s breakdown on the likelihood of each team actually running the table.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Western Carolina)
Undefeated Chances: 54.7%
Closest Remaining Game: at LSU (November 2)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Games Remaining: 4
Undefeated Chances 39.8%
Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 24)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Games Remaining: 3
Undefeated Chances: 28.8%
Closest Remaining Game: at Wisconsin (November 17)
Kansas State Wildcats
Games Remaining: 4
Undefeated Chances: 27.7%
Closest Remaining Game: at TCU (November 10)
Games Remaining: 5 (including conference championship game)
Undefeated Chances: 20.2%
Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 2 – at Oregon State is close)
Games Remaining: 4
Undefeated Chances: 16.6%
Closest Remaining Game: at Rutgers (November 29)
Notre Dame actually has the second best shot of the teams remaining to win out, and the Irish will beat the Trojans 65% of the time according to these statistics. (You’d have taken those chances in the preseason, wouldn’t you have?)
So while the Irish aren’t a lock to play in the national title game, they’re actually sitting better than you’d expect. And of course, this is just a friendly reminder that it’s still too early to start worrying about the BCS.
Dec 26, 2014, 10:05 AM EST
With ten players down, we get to the meat of our rankings. Our preseason and final rankings look quite different as we go from 15-11.
Dec 24, 2014, 12:00 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys rookie Zack Martin was named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday, the only offensive rookie selected to the game and one of six Cowboys. Martin has started all season at right guard for one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.
Dec 24, 2014, 9:30 AM EST
Tommy Rees will begin his coaching career close to where his football career began. Rees, who played in all four of his seasons at Notre Dame from 2010-13, will be an offensive graduate assistant at Northwestern.
Dec 24, 2014, 1:01 AM EST
It appears that Brian Kelly has added another key piece to his football program. The Los Angeles Times reports Notre Dame has hired former Green Bay Packer and UCLA running back Johnathan Franklin to join the staff in an administrative role, focusing on student welfare and development.
Dec 23, 2014, 10:00 AM EST
As we continue our final rankings of the 2014 season, numbers 20-16 continues to showcase the youth on the roster.
Dec 22, 2014, 12:32 PM EST
With a little over a week to go until the Irish take on LSU in the Music City Bowl, it’s time to take a look back at the regular season. Our first five spots on the year-end Top 25 roll out.
Dec 21, 2014, 4:35 PM EST
After a mailbag goes missing, the Inside the Irish crew go looking for answers. That and other solutions in this week’s mailbag.
Dec 20, 2014, 4:50 PM EST
Brian Kelly met with the local media on Saturday afternoon, delivering good news on the status of two key veteran defenders. Both defensive tackle Sheldon Day and cornerback Cody Riggs are on track to start against LSU, adding a few key pieces back into the puzzle.
Dec 19, 2014, 11:59 AM EST
Notre Dame solidified its safety depth chart by going for a homegrown solution. The Irish offered Indianapolis Warren Central safety Mykelti Williams yesterday, and today the four-star prospect made the decision official by committing to Notre Dame.
Dec 19, 2014, 11:27 AM EST
Notre Dame’s inclusion in the ACC’s bowl selections came in handy this year. As the Irish back-slid throughout November, they still held onto some preferred real estate, finding themselves in a pretty nice consolation game, with the opportunity to play in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.
Carter Bryant gets us ready for LSU.
Dec 18, 2014, 2:38 PM EST
Sophomores Jaylon Smith and Will Fuller have earned more kudos than just their defensive and offensive player of the year Echoes. Both have received mention for year-end All-American awards.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:17 PM EST
While most eyes are focused on the battle at quarterback between Everett Golson and Malik Zaire, the preparations for LSU will also be critical along the offensive line. The extra practices will give Brian Kelly and Harry Hiestand time to evaluate their starting five, with changes that could have both short and long-term impacts.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:24 PM EST
Any new questions? Ones that I’ve avoided? Last minute Christmas ideas? Drop them in the comments below or on Twitter @KeithArnold.
Dec 17, 2014, 12:29 PM EST
Monday UND.com premiered the short film “Blind Faith.” Directed by Notre Dame graduate Greg Kohs, the documentary follows a blind eighth grade boy making his first visit to Notre Dame Stadium.
Dec 16, 2014, 11:40 AM EST
Brian Kelly will play two quarterbacks against LSU, with both senior Everett Golson and sophomore Malik Zaire getting an opportunity to take on the LSU in the Music City Bowl. After a regular season where Golson served as the starter all 12 games with Zaire only seeing significant action against USC in the finale, both will be utilized in the Irish’s offensive game plan.
Dec 15, 2014, 4:52 PM EST
Notre Dame junior offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley walked off the stage Friday night with the team’s Lineman of the Year Award. He’s still uncertain if it’s the last time he’ll take part in the season-ending festivities.
Dec 15, 2014, 3:37 PM EST
This August, a group of people who spend way too much time watching and writing about Notre Dame football got together to put together some preseason rankings on the roster. In doing so, we (I’m definitely included) put in writing what so many of you (especially in the comments) already thought was true: We don’t know what we’re talking about sometimes.
Dec 13, 2014, 12:11 PM EST
Middle linebacker Joe Schmidt was named the 2014 team’s MVP on Saturday night, honored by his teammates with the top award at Notre Dame’s year-end awards show. Hosted by NBC’s Mike Mayock and WNBA star Skylar Diggins, “The Echoes” withstood a building-clearing plumbing issue to hand out 16 awards.
Dec 12, 2014, 10:40 AM EST
Notre Dame’s regular season may be over. The Irish’s recruiting class — one many thought would cap itself around 20 — is already at 21 commits. Get ready for a busy weekend on campus.
Dec 10, 2014, 9:49 PM EST
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick finds himself in the news on another roller coaster day in college athletics. And while it isn’t about a coaching change (another job opening under Barry Alvarez!) or another critique of the College Football Playoff, Swarbrick found himself speaking openly — and rather candidly — about compensating student-athletes, and the perilous position college athletic departments now find themselves in.