Prince Shembo

Pregame Six Pack: Shamrocks and Sun Devils

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A Shamrock Series game is usually known for its alternate location and nontraditional uniforms. But when Notre Dame and Arizona State battle in primetime on Saturday night, it might also decide the season. As the Irish take on Todd Graham’s dangerous Sun Devils squad, Notre Dame is likely playing for their BCS lives. A win pushes the Irish to 4-2 heading into their bye week. It’ll likely also reinvigorate the Irish before taking on a wayward USC team, optimistically leading them into a stretch of football games that could get the Irish finally playing up to their potential.

Of course, after watching the Sun Devils blow USC out in the second half, Las Vegas has the Irish as almost a touchdown underdog tomorrow night, leading to the very real possibility that Notre Dame could be .500 after Saturday night, a disappointment at every level, with a bumpy road still ahead.

While the Irish aren’t ranked after two September losses, there are still national implications to Saturday night’s game. It’s time for the pregame six pack. Here are six tidbits, leftovers, fun facts, and miscellaneous musings before the Irish take on the Sun Devils.

***

After two tight games with Todd Graham, Brian Kelly is going to need to bring his best on Saturday night. 

Neither guy wearing the headset is playing the game. (It’s tough to call what Graham wears on the sideline a headset, but you get the idea.) Yet the chess match between Brian Kelly and Todd Graham is one to watch. Both Graham and Kelly are well regarded coaches, with both thought to be incredibly ambitious. That ambition has put both coaches in some tough spaces, with Graham making more than a few eyebrow raising moves in his career, walking away from two head coaching jobs after just a single season on the job. Kelly is equally ambitious, leaving two programs before their season was over and shocking many when he spoke with the Philadelphia Eagles just a day after losing the national championship.

After Graham stole a victory away from Kelly when Tulsa came in and shocked the Irish, Kelly won ugly at Pittsburgh. The rubber match is a game both coaches desperately need, and one that’ll likely define the trajectory of each team’s season.

***

Playing another defense that’s going to challenge him with man coverage, can Tommy Rees get back on track?

It’s been a tough couple weeks for Tommy Rees. No stat has defined that more than his completion percentage, with Rees struggling to even sniff 50 percent passing against Michigan State and Oklahoma. Heading into the season as the school’s most accurate passer in its history, Rees’s numbers just don’t make sense, even when you consider that the Irish have pushed the ball down field more aggressively than they had ever in the past.

On his weekly appearance on SiriusXM’s College Football Playbook with Jack Arute and former UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, Kelly was asked pointedly about Rees’s struggles, and he gave this window into the varying reasons.

“It’s all man to man coverage, the last two weeks has been straight man to man. Part of it has been, you’re not getting any cupcake throws,” Kelly told Arute and Neuheisel. “So he’s got to be able to connect at probably a 55 percent completion ratio.

“In our estimation, he missed his last seven in a row late in the game on some basic stuff. He had three of them knocked down,  two of them on poor routes, and one of them where we got pushed back into the pocket. We’re talking about a little bit of everything. Not being accurate enough in man to man coverage. We’re talking about a number of young receivers not getting open in man coverage, not doing a good job of stair stepping or coming off rubs or making tough catches in man to man coverage, and that’s all adding up to a poor completion percentage rating.”

Here’s how Rees has faired against Todd Graham’s defense:

33 of 54 for 334 4 TD, 3 INT
24 of 41 for 215 1 TD, 1 INT

That’s a 60 percent completion number, which falls into the accuracy range Kelly wants for his quarterback. But if Rees is throwing more than 40 times on Saturday night, the Irish are in trouble.

***

Slowing down Taylor Kelly and the Sun Devils offense is key. But keep an eye on the hidden yardage as well. 

In a game where some Sun Devils players thought they could’ve put up 80 points, a big key to Arizona State’s 62-point explosion was field position. Todd Graham’s troops started in plus territory three times against USC, while the Trojans never started on the Sun Devil’s side of the fifty.

There’s a stark contrast in field position for Graham’s squads when it comes to wins and losses. In victories, the average starting field position has been the team’s own 37.4 yard line, while in losses its been their own 23.7.

As Kyle Brindza gets more comfortable handling kickoffs and punts, with Alex Wulfeck working in as a situational punter, forcing the Sun Devils to go the distance on their scoring drives will be key if the Irish are going to keep ASU’s points down.

***

Hidden Yardage is cool and all, but getting off the field is imperative. 

Apologies to Brindza and Wulfeck, but neither guy is getting the game ball this Saturday night for his punting. If the Irish are going to win this football game they’re going to need to get off the field on third down.

Right now, Notre Dame’s defense ranks a wretched 91st in the country on third downs, allowing opponents to convert at better than a 42 percent clip. That’s helped opponents extend drives, score points, and win football games.

Tim Prister of IrishIllustrated.com took a look at one of the big differences between this defense and last year’s edition, with this group already giving up ten touchdown drives of 75-yards or more.

No statistic is more startling than the number of long scoring drives surrendered by the Irish in five games this year. Temple equaled the number of 75-yard touchdown drives from the previous season in the first half of the first game.

Michigan added four more lengthy touchdown drives of 77, 75, 78 and 75 yards. Purdue had a pair of 75-yarders. Michigan State added another. Oklahoma had two, including an 88-yard drive late in the first half.

In 20 quarters of football so far this season, Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 10 – repeat, 10 – touchdown drives of 75 yards or more. Michigan State also had a 15-play, 75-yard field-goal drive and Oklahoma had a nine-play 65-yard field-goal drive.

A lot of factors go into these struggles — pass rush issues, struggles with man coverage, ill-timed blitzes. But Kelly thinks his defense is close. We’ll find out Saturday night if he’s right.

***

As the season rounds into its second act, freshmen are starting to step forward.

Don’t look know, but that heralded recruiting class Notre Dame landed is going to be called on to start helping win some football games. While some expect Brian Kelly to plug and play elite recruits, that just hasn’t been this coaching staff’s m.o. while in South Bend. Yet slowly but surely, a group many thought was among the best in the country on paper have started to make their presence felt on the field as well.

Let’s take a look at the freshmen that’ll likely be playing a key role on Saturday night:

Jaylon Smith — Starting OLB will carry the load for much of the game with Ben Councell suspended for the first half.
Tarean Folston — Atkinson’s breakout was great, but Folston might have moved into the No. 2 role.
Will Fuller — He’s had catches now in back to back games.
Isaac Rochelle — With Sheldon Day still struggling with an ankle injury, Rochelle’s been called into action early.
Cole Luke — The team’s starting nickel back, Luke will be facing a dangerous offense that plays just ten minutes from his Arizona home.
Corey Robinson — Averaging over 16 yards on his four catches. Is a red zone look coming next?
Steve Elmer — Already a versatile substitute on a group with plenty of depth.
James Onwualu — Yet to make his first catch, Onwualu has been physical blocking and on special teams.
Devin Butler — Another freshman that’s climbed the depth chart, Butler’s getting significant reps in coverage packages.
Max Redfield — The fourth safety on the two-deep, Redfield’s close to seeing the field.

***

Stanford supplied the recipe for beating Arizona State. Now the Irish need to try and replicate it. 

Three fourth quarter touchdowns made Arizona State’s 42-28 loss to Stanford look much more respectable. But if you’re looking for a recipe for victory, David Shaw’s team provided it. Now it’ll be up to the Irish to try and pull it off themselves.

Step One: Get off to a good start.

Believe it or not, Stanford didn’t score on their first possession. (They missed a 51-yard field goal.) But they did on their second. And their third. And kept their foot on the gas with four first half touchdowns.

Step Two: Make plays behind the line of scrimmage.

The Cardinal defense had three sacks of Taylor Kelly at the Farm, while also chipping in an absurd ten TFLs. (The Irish have 20 on the season, good for 104th in the country.)

Step Three: Run the football to win the game.

After jumping out to a 29-point halftime lead, Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan only threw the ball five times in the second half, milking 19 minutes off the clock. Stanford was one carry away from hitting the 50 mark. If Notre Dame can run the ball 40 times Saturday night, they’ll have won the football game.

Step Four: Get Arizona State to turn the football over.

In addition to getting to the quarterback and making plays behind the line of scrimmage, the Cardinal picked off Kelly twice. The first set up Stanford deep in ASU territory and led to the team’s first touchdown. (The second ended the game.)

Against an offense as explosive as the Sun Devil’s, winning the turnover battle will be key.

 

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)

Four-star WR Micah Jones chooses Irish; Rees may need to wait; Other late-week reading

jones
rivals.com
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A day may come when Notre Dame suffers a recruiting disappointment in the 2018 cycle, when a high school star spurns the Irish coaching staff for a foe, but it is not this day.

Rivals.com four-star receiver Micah Jones (Warren Township High School; Gurnee, Ill.) committed to Notre Dame on Friday, joining a class of now 10 recruits, including four who committed just this week.

Jones chose the Irish over offers from the likes of Iowa, Michigan State and Ole Miss, among others.

He is the first receiver among the 10 commitments and the seventh considered a four-star prospect. At 6-foot-5, 196 pounds, Jones should present a large target for whomever the Notre Dame quarterback is in the fall of 2018, most likely then-senior Brandon Wimbush.

Tom, Tommy or Thomas; Assistant Coach or Graduate Assistant?
Thomas Rees may need to wait a season before officially being a coach at Notre Dame. The legislation to approve a 10th assistant coach was expected to be voted on, passed and effective in April. A newly-added amendment may push the effective date to following the 2017 season. The amendment will be voted on immediately before the legislation itself is.

The delay makes sense. Most coaching hirings and firings occur in December and January. In theory, creating a one-timing hiring frenzy following spring football could leave many programs in the lurch. In practice, however, this is not anticipated.

“The majority of the FBS guys that I’ve talked with currently believe that 10th coach is going to come from within their own organization,” Todd Berry told the Associated Press. Berry is the executive director of the American Football Coaches Association and former coach at Army and Louisiana-Monroe. “Quality control, graduate assistants, analysts, or they’re planning on hiring somebody that’s out of work.”

A majority is not a unanimity, though, and that carousel will innately work to the disadvantage of the Group of 5 schools.

As for Rees, a graduate assistant can still work extensively with players. The most-pertinent difference between a graduate assistant and an assistant coach is the former cannot recruit. Given Notre Dame’s recent success on the recruiting trail—and the early commitment of class of 2018 consensus four-star quarterback Phil Jurkovec (Pine-Richland H.S.; Gibsonia, Pa.)—Rees may not be an absolute necessity in that regard this cycle.

A Kizer Appraisal
Former NFL scout Greg Gabriel took a look at former Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer this week, largely paying the draft prospect compliments.

In calling Kizer “the most talented quarterback in this draft class,” Gabriel set a high ceiling for Kizer’s spring. Part of Gabriel’s positive assessment comes from acknowledging Kizer’s responsibilities as the Irish signal-caller.

“The spread offense that Kizer played in at Notre Dame is more sophisticated than many of the spread offenses we see elsewhere at the collegiate level. The Notre Dame offense is a whole-field read scheme in which the quarterback has to go through a progression that encompasses both sides of the field. He also can change the play and/or protections at the line of scrimmage. Given all that, Kizer was asked to do more than many spread quarterbacks are asked to do.”

Gabriel also reflected on the dynamic differences for Kizer in 2015 and 2016 and what may have elicited some of his seeming stagnation.

“There was the unnecessary quarterback controversy at Notre Dame, and the offensive line wasn’t as experienced or as talented and the receivers were mostly first-year starters.”

As much as Gabriel raves about Kizer, he would be the first to tell you anything beyond individual player evaluation is a waste of air this early in the draft process. Mock drafts may be fun, but they are not much beyond that.

Take the fates of Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo, for example. Few, if any, in the NFL expect them to dress for the Cowboys and Patriots, respectively, again. Where they end up could directly impact Kizer’s draft placement.

Jaylon Smith May Be Back to Form
Former Notre Dame and current Dallas Cowboys linebacker Jaylon Smith posted yet another encouraging video to Twitter. This one shows Smith really might be game-ready right now and, if not, almost certainly will be by the fall. Should there be any difficulty with the embedded video below, here is a link straight to it.

OL Mabry makes third commitment this week; WR Jones may follow Friday

mabry
rivals.com
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Two weeks ago, Irish coach Brian Kelly gave a non-answer of an answer to a question about a likely early signing period this coming December. Avoiding specifics, he indicated he thinks the effects of such a change will be seen on a case-by-case basis entirely dependent on the recruits.

“Some will, some won’t,” Kelly said. “…Each kid is going to have to react to it based upon also how their school is going to be dealing with it. Some will come off the board at the time.

“We’re expecting some to sign early, but I think our mindset is we’re going into it business as usual. We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

After this week, Notre Dame is going to have more year-long fights than anticipated. Consensus three-star offensive lineman recruit Cole Mabry (Brentwood High School; Brentwood, Tenn.) became the third prospect to offer a verbal commitment to the Irish coaching staff in less than 36 hours with his Wednesday decision. Mabry received the offer over the weekend, but waited a few days before making his decision public, lest emotions be dictating his thought process.

At 6-foot-6 and 255 pounds, Mabry will have time to add muscle to his frame, with four or five offensive tackles greeting him on the Notre Dame roster in the summer of 2018. That ability to mold his style and growth may have played a part in the Irish interest.

“They love my height and athleticism and how I play,” Mabry told rivals.com. “We got to break down film and go through things that they do that pair up with how I play now. They think I’ll be a great fit in their offense.”

Mabry is the ninth Notre Dame commitment in the class of 2018, though the first offensive lineman.

Judging by new Notre Dame director of football performance Matt Balis’s agenda for the Irish roster’s Valentine’s Day morning, Mabry will have much to look forward to in terms of strength and conditioning.

Rivals.com four-star receiver Micah Jones (Warren Township H.S.; Gurnee, Ill.) is scheduled to announce his verbal commitment this Friday at 4 p.m. ET. Along with Notre Dame, Jones is considering Iowa, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Illinois and Northwestern. He would be the first receiver in Notre Dame’s 2018 class. Naturally, whomever Jones commits to, the recruiting fight will last until at least December, and perhaps all the way to February.

Notre Dame adds two top defensive back commits; Elliott officially a ‘Husker

allen
rivals.com
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It’s early. It’s really, really early. Not in the day, though this post is scheduled for an a.m. hour. No, it is early in the 2018 recruiting cycle. Any piece of news, each commitment, everything should be taken with two grains of salt.

Nonetheless, Notre Dame—and more specifically, new Irish defensive coordinator Mike Elko and defensive backs coach Todd Lyght—enjoyed Tuesday’s recruiting news when two consensus four-star coverage men committed to the Irish.

Safety Derrik Allen (Lassiter High School; Marietta, Ga.) and cornerback Kalon Gervin (Cass Tech; Detroit, Mich.) joined a class of now eight commitments, six of which play on the defensive side of the ball.

Gervin, the No. 11 cornerback in the class according to rivals.com, waited mere days after attending Notre Dame’s Junior Day over the weekend. Irish coach Brian Kelly and staff’s failure to land a recruit at Gervin’s position in the 2017 haul actually helped reel in the recruit with offers from Florida, LSU, Michigan and dozens others.

“The opportunity to play right away, they didn’t sign a cornerback this last class,” Gervin told Blue & Gold Illustrated helped sway him. “Also, the education is second-to-none. It speaks for itself.”

Allen, pictured at top, has leaned toward Notre Dame for months. The No. 3 safety in the country per Rivals, he chose the Irish over the likes of Alabama, Clemson and Florida State.

Elliott officially to Nebraska

The two highly-touted defensive backs will not have the chance to learn under the tutelage of Bob Elliott. Nebraska officially announced the hiring of the former Notre Dame safeties (2012-13) and linebackers (2014) coach. Elliott spent the last two seasons serving as a special assistant to Kelly, focusing largely on defending the triple-option attacks of Army, Navy and Georgia Tech.

Elliott rejoins former Notre Dame defensive coordinator Bob Diaco in Lincoln. Diaco was hired as the Cornhuskers’ defensive coordinator in January.

The Lincoln Journal Star’s Brian Cristopherson reports Elliott will make a nice wage in eastern Nebraska.