Cam Smile

Mailbag: Air Force edition

19 Comments

Another week, another Mailbag. Let’s get into your questions.

jcmpa: Given the struggles of the ND defense this year, last week not included, is Diaco still a legitimate head coaching candidate?

I think you might be taking “struggles” a little too seriously. It’s not as if this Notre Dame defense is getting torched, and when all is said and done, they’ll likely be a Top 25 unit. That’s three straight seasons as a Top 30 defense.

Diaco is young (just turned 40), energetic, passionate and a good looking dude. That said, I don’t think he’s in a hurry to move his family from South Bend unless the right offer comes his way.

As some background, Diaco and I had a chance to talk before the BCS Championship Game about him taking a head coaching job. He didn’t seem to stressed about it and said it’s all about timing and opportunity. Put simply, Diaco wouldn’t be who he was if he was spending that time looking for a new job.

He’ll be a great head coach one day. Maybe even soon.

irishaggie: After 7 games we only have one RB (GA) go over 100 yards. ND is 96th in the country in rushing yards. With a shaken up Tommy and a bad Air Force defense what RB do you think will have a break out game?

I think you’re on to something Aggie, but guessing what back is anyone’s guess. If I had to wager, I’d think that George Atkinson will bust a couple big plays and that’ll get him over 100 yards. Otherwise, if you’re looking for chaos, how about Tarean Folston getting 13 carries for 110 yards.

onward2victory: At this point of the season, is Jaylon Smith already one of the top 5 players on the roster?

So you’re saying Smith’s behind only this group?

Louis Nix – All-American
Stephon Tuitt — On his way there, likely 1st rounder if he wants to be
TJ Jones – Offensive MVP, Captain
Zack Martin — All-American caliber player

I think that’s probably a little too lofty, though I think he’s probably slotting in around the top ten, with guys like Prince Shembo, Troy Niklas, Chris Watt, and Bennett Jackson all playing more consistent football.

Still, that’s lofty ground for a true freshman.

irishlee: Do you think Tuitt will stay or go?

I think he stays. Don’t think the decision will be easy, but seeing that Senior Day presentation will be tough, and him telling The Observer that he wants to stay is telling.

irishdodger: So Air Force has six losses after one win over a brand of toothpaste, they’ve struggled keeping a QB healthy & their defense can’t stop air. Sounds like a recipe where ND will play down to their competition (ala Temple & Purdue) by waiting until the fourth quarter to put the Falcons away. You know I’m right…what say you?

If you’re right, why are you asking? I tend to think the Irish will take care of business.

mediocrebob: Why are other fans so obsessed with Notre Dame? I understand that their sorry programs don’t add up to all that Notre Dame is, but how do they have time to follow their weak programs, follow Notre Dame, and have a life all at the same time?

Trolls are hardly unique to Notre Dame, but there are plenty of reasons to hate on the Irish and a football program that sometimes plays by different rules. And Bob, don’t be so tough on yourself.

bernhtp: Given that Hendrix appears to be THE alternative to Rees, how much effort do you expect Kelly to expend to rehabilitate Hendrix’s confidence and performance? Do you expect him to get most of the snaps against a weak AF team, assuming the game is put away early? If Hendrix still fails to perform, do you expect Kelly to burn Zaire’s red shirt if Rees goes down again, the game is in jeopardy, and Zaire appears ready?

A lot of effort. (Not as much effort as it took to chop down your question, Bern. But I’ve gotta bust your chops a little bit here…) Getting Hendrix’s confidence up is going to be important, because I don’t think burning Zaire’s redshirt is an option unless they’ve got no other choice.

We tend to forget things as they pass us by. Remember when Everett Golson was playing in his first big game against Michigan and played worse than Hendrix last week? That didn’t ruin the kid, nor will last week ruin Hendrix.

domerboyirish: I’ve been trying to ask this for weeks but never seem to catch this segment. Why don’t we have a standard running back screen pass in our playbook? It seems like the perfect play for the players we have on the line and at tail back. What gives?

It’s a valid question DomerBoy. The Irish don’t tend to run many RB screens and I wonder if it’s a product of the spread attack. Count me among those that would like to see them incorporated more.

mtflsmitty: 1) How did Diaco change his game plan after Rees exited the game? Can you cite specific adjustments that allowed our D to get so stingy?

I don’t think there were that many specific adjustments. Stephon Tuitt just killed USC’s left tackle. And the Trojans didn’t have Marqise Lee to balance the passing attack.

2) The Max Redfield situation is interesting. Why hasn’t he seen more action? Are they waiting for him to put on a bit more weight? Is he having a hard time picking up the complexities of the defensive scheme? What else?

Redfield talked about this over bye week. He’s working on getting himself ready to play, and it’s one of the hardest positions on the roster to just walk in and play. He got some snaps at safety against USC and I don’t think it’s fair to tag the kid as a slow learning. He’s right on the edge of the two-deep and will likely challenge for a starting job by spring.

3) I don’t think Robinson has a catch in the last several games. After getting a lot of attention early why is he getting so few looks lately?

I don’t know if he’s gotten a lot of attention, other than from those of us breaking down the frames of ICON videos from UND.com. There is only one football. Getting the ball to TJ Jones and DaVaris Daniels are the first two reads in the passing game. Then Troy Niklas. Then you look at the other options… and there’s Robinson with a pack of guys like Chris Brown, Will Fuller and James Onwualu, who is still looking for that first catch.

steincj36: Keith, especially with a thin LB corps, how much will the altitude be a factor? We hear about the 4th qtr conditioning the team has, but South Bend is like 700 ft above sea level, not 7000…

Not much you can do about altitude in college football. If this game comes down to fourth quarter conditioning, something went pretty wrong for Notre Dame.

nducsb: With the recent setback BK has had at Notre Dame, do you think a jump to the NFL has officially been squelched  at least for this year? Was what happened last year basically just the Eagles reaching for straws (case in point, how horrific Chip Kelly is doing?)

This question kind of cracks me up. Setback? What happened? If losing two games to Oklahoma and Michigan is a setback, I think ND fans are getting mighty spoiled and might have their heads tucked while they sit out a pretty special run.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the last 20 games in college football, as pointed out by @OakND1

19-1: Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Northern Illinois
18-2: Florida State
17-3: Notre Dame, Clemson, Stanford, Louisville
16-4: South Carolina, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Boise State

If that’s a setback, we’ve got to re-evaluate expectations.

As for Chip Kelly’s NFL debut, NFL teams don’t replace head coaches unless the team is underperforming. That Andy Reid can start off undefeated with the Chiefs but couldn’t win with the Eagles gives you an idea of the personnel that Chip is dealing with.

Brian Kelly should be on a short list of any team hiring. Whether he’s interested is another story.

4horsemenrideagain: Was Hendrix’s “under-performance” against SC due to his nerves and to the big stage, or was it just a clever ploy by Hendrix to play poorly on purpose as a favor to Tommy Rees so that all of the Rees detractors would be a little more appreciative this week?

 

I think Hendrix might have been the second gunman on the grassy knoll, too. My guess? Probably nerves and the fact that he was stacked into some tough situations.

harvupdyke: Keith, do you see Alabama winning an unprecedented 3rd bcs national championship in a row? I’ll take your comments off the air. Roll dam tide.

Harv – You might want to head to Austin, Texas and start buying up some properties. But I think Alabama is the odds on favorite to win, though I would like to see Oregon take a shot at them.

tburke9601: What do you think of the Cam McDaniel photo sans helmet?

Handsome Devil. Now don’t fumble in the fourth quarter.

 

Spring positions to watch for revelations: DL & WR

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 05: Jerry Tillery #99 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackles Jerrod Heard #13 of the Texas Longhorns for a loss of yards during the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium on September 5, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Getty Images
36 Comments

If quarterback, rover and the early enrollees could be Notre Dame fans’ springtime Christmas thrills, what positions present as potential spots of coal?

Three former Irish players were invited to next week’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis: quarterback DeShone Kizer, defensive tackle Jarron Jones and defensive end Isaac Rochell. Losing two consistent defensive linemen leaves this year’s unit with some questions. Jones and Rochell combined for 100 tackles, 18 for loss and three sacks last season. Notre Dame’s returning defensive linemen combined to total 111 tackles and only 5.5 tackles for loss. To be clear, sacks are not included in that latter list because no returning defensive linemen recorded one. Among the returnees, junior tackle Jerry Tillery (37 tackles, three for loss) and senior end Andrew Trumbetti (26, 0.5) contributed solidly alongside the two NFL prospects.

This dearth of known and reliable linemen is a large part of why the potential transfer of Clemson graduate defensive tackle Scott Pagano is so intriguing. Pagano would immediately be a favorite to start, and if not that, at least rotate in heavily.

For now, though, Pagano remains a theoretical

By the end of spring practice, who already on campus will emerge alongside Tillery and Trumbetti in the Irish front? Senior ends Jay Hayes (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) and Jonathon Bonner (nine tackles) seem the most-likely candidates … aside from former four-star recruit and now rising sophomore Daelin Hayes. In his debut season, D. Hayes finished with 11 tackles.

Look for senior tackle Daniel Cage (10 tackles, 0.5 for loss) to establish himself as Tillery’s immediate backup this spring, but that spot in the rotation will be up for competition all over again once four-star tackle Darnell Ewell (Lake Taylor High School; Norfolk, Va.) arrives on campus in the fall. His size and quickness should play right into new defensive coordinator Mike Elko’s system.

Equanimeous and Who?
Not only did Notre Dame bring in a graduate transfer at receiver in former Michigan wideout Freddy Canteen, but it has also already received the commitments of two four-star receivers in the 2018 recruiting class. The continued emphasis on the position reflects the lack of bona fide game-breakers currently on the roster.

Junior Equanimeous St. Brown established himself as the top Irish threat in 2016, and he should shine only further with junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush targeting him. Classmates often amplify each other’s success, simply due to the added shared reps innate to joining practice at the same time. With Torii Hunter, Jr., now pursuing a professional baseball career, who will prevent the secondary from focusing all its energies on St. Brown?

Canteen will not be with Notre Dame in the spring, as he does not graduate from Michigan until April. That will give a clear shot for the likes of juniors Chris Finke, C.J. Sanders and Miles Boykin, and sophomores Kevin Stepherson, Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool to establish themselves. Did that say “clear” shot? It should probably read, “a chance to separate from the crowd.”

If a genuine threat does not line up opposite St. Brown, his explosiveness will likely be greatly reduced by focused defensive scheming. Wimbush will need another target before 2018.

Of course, here is where one should acknowledge the millennia-tested fact: Coal under pressure becomes diamonds.

2016 Notre Dame’s win expectancy was 7.2
Sports Illustrated’s Chris Johnson named the Irish as his team most likely to dramatically improve its record in 2017. Johnson’s thinking is based, at least in part, on Notre Dame’s second-order win total having been 7.2 in 2016, compared to the four wins the Irish actually walked away with. That discrepancy was the largest in the country.

Second-order win totals reflect how many points a team should have scored and allowed based on offensive and defensive stats. In theory, this shines a light on how luck and chance factored into results. Naturally, losing seven games by one possession will often be reflected by a higher second-order win total.

“Notre Dame’s win-loss record belied a solid, if imperfect, squad that just couldn’t pull out close games…” Johnson writes. “The Irish may not get back into College Football Playoff contention in 2017, but they’re bound to post a few more Ws because of reversion to the mean.”

Admittedly, the small sample size of a football season reduces the applicability of metrics such as second- and third-order wins when compared to baseball and basketball.

Jones becomes Mack
A quick piece of housekeeping: Apparently junior tight end Alizé Jones has changed his name to Alizé Mack.

While Notre Dame’s roster may not reflect that change yet, it is reasonable to expect it will after its next update. The football program has consistently respected the intricacies of players’ name preferences. Tai-ler Jones becoming TJ Jones jumps to mind, for example.

Anyways, hopefully noting Mack’s name change here might reduce some confusion down the line. Probably not. How many readers possibly read to the actual bottom of an article? But hey, in good faith.

WR Lenzy makes 11th commitment, brings speed to Irish

lenzy
rivals.com
32 Comments

At what point does an impressive recruiting roll become something more? When does it become a harbinger of things to come, even if not for a few seasons? How many notable commitments in a row establishes a class as special?

If the answer to any of the above is 11 commitments by the end of February, including five within two weeks, then Notre Dame is there following consensus four-star athlete Braden Lenzy’s announcement Thursday evening.

The Tigard High School (Portland, Ore) receiver/cornerback chose the Irish over offers from USC, Oregon and Michigan State, among a litany of others. In all, nine Pac-12 schools chased Lenzy—and a 10th, Washington, had shown interest—per rivals.com.

Lenzy will fit the leading 2018 need voiced by Irish coach Brian Kelly three weeks ago on National Signing Day 2017.

“Elite speed on offense will be a primary goal for us,” Kelly said Feb. 1. “Guys that can change the game on one possession. I think we’ll see that… We want a couple of home run hitters. We don’t care if they’re Darren Sproles’s size. We’re going to come off the board in terms of profile. We want some guys that can change the game on offense with elite speed.”

At 6-foot, 175 pounds, Lenzy is taller than Sproles’s 5-foot-6, but it is still his speed that drew Notre Dame’s interest.

“They made it clear they want me to do kickoff return and use me as a deep threat across the field,” he told Irish Illustrated. “Just being kind of an athlete, similar to what I’ve been doing already in high school, just on a bigger scale with a quarterback that can throw it a lot farther.”

Presuming Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush is that arm in 2018, throwing great distances should not be an issue. Between Lenzy and fellow 2018 commit Micah Jones, covering those distances should be a reasonable request, as well.

Lenzy brings Notre Dame’s class of 2018 to 11, including eight four-stars according to Rivals’ rating system. Current scholarship projections indicate the class will not be a large one, meaning the Irish coaching staff has already garnered the commitments of more than half the class. Once again, though, Kelly’s sentiment regarding recruiting timing should be remembered.

“We’re all going to have to fight until February.”

SWARBRICK’S TAKE ON RECRUITING
Kelly credited Director of Athletics Jack Swarbrick with much assistance in securing the country’s No. 13 recruiting class in 2017. A refresher on those comments:

“In a lot of instances, [Swarbrick] had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it’s going,” Kelly said. “There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future.”

Swarbrick did not dispute the factual nature of any of that in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, but he did contest the need for praising what he saw as part of his job, one of the preferred parts of his job, at that.

“I can’t say anything about this year felt all that different,” Swarbrick told Star reporter Laken Litman. “Some asked questions about the future of the program and can we compete for a national championship. And I would talk about the elements of the program we were focused on improving.”

Swarbrick and Litman discussed a number of items in the second-half of the interview released by the Star, including Notre Dame’s facilities, a possible early signing period in football and if the Oct. 8, 2016, game against North Carolina State should have been played. Spoiler: No. Then why was it? Go check it out.

Swarbrick also told Litman he likes to write in his free time.

“I tend to think strategically with a pen in my hand.” Swarbrick added he is currently scribbling away on where he thinks college athletics are headed.

This scribe, for one, would be most interested in skimming those legal pads.

Will Wimbush, Elko and the early enrollees surprise in spring practice?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 26: Fans congratulate Brandon Wimbush #12 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after he ran for a 58 yard touchdown against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Notre Dame Stadium on September 26, 2015 in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Umass 62-27.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Getty Images
39 Comments

Exactly 59 days from today, the Irish will take the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Sure, they will be playing against themselves, but nonetheless, it will be somewhat-competitive football played in gold helmets.

For timing context, exactly 59 days ago, you looked beneath the Christmas tree to learn if Santa Claus left you season tickets, socks or coal. I got socks. They had some of that extra cushioning, so I considered them a suitable treat.

Whether you care about my argyles or not (you don’t), for many the Blue-Gold Game and Christmas morning hold similar excitement. That fact is apparently why Notre Dame director of athletics Jack Swarbrick does not concern himself when groups of alumni publicly lament his decisions, or lack thereof.

“I never worry about that,” Swarbirck told the Indianapolis Star in an exclusive interview you really should read. Go on, click the link, it will open in a new tab. You can come right back here when you are done.

“The hardest job in athletics is trying to generate passion in your program. If that sort of stuff bothers you, you can’t be the athletic director, head coach or the quarterback at Notre Dame.”

That very passion will undoubtedly lead to frame-by-frame discussions of video snippets from spring practice, parsing of each and every word Irish coach Brian Kelly says in quick interviews after those practices, and extreme pessimism and optimism about the 2017 season.

In the Christmas spirit, what toys could bring the must excitement during the spring unwrapping? Personally, the gift I was unsure of always brought the most joy. I would rather open an unexpected book than know about a charcoal-gray suit. In other words, at least for today, let’s look past the offensive line, the running backs and the inside linebackers. Instead, let’s look forward to learning about… (more…)

How did Mike Elko fare against past Irish opponents?

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 18:  Karlos Williams #9 of the Florida State Seminoles scores the touchdown that would win the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during their game at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 18, 2014 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Getty Images
41 Comments

Former Irish defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took over at that position before the 2014 season. Former Wake Forest defensive coordinator, and now VanGorder’s successor at Notre Dame, Mike Elko took over in Winston-Salem at the same time. Since then, the two programs faced common opponents nine times.

With the lone exception of Army, all these games featured ACC opponents. When it comes to talent, Wake Forest tends to be outmatched in the ACC. Recruits from 2011 to 2016 suited up for the Deacons in the 2014-16 seasons. During those six recruiting cycles, Wake Forest never finished higher than No. 10 in the conference according to rivals.com’s rankings. In 2012 and 2014, the Deacons finished at the bottom of the conference in recruiting.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished behind an ACC team a total of 10 times over those six years. Florida State outpaced the Irish five times, the exception being Notre Dame’s No. 3-ranked class in 2013 following its national championship game appearance. Clemson finished ahead of the Irish four times (2014 joining 2013 as the outliers), and Miami rounds the listing off with its No. 9-finish in 2012, compared to Notre Dame’s No. 20.

The point being, VanGorder and the Irish could anticipate having a stronger and deeper roster in at least six of the games discussed below. Elko and Wake Forest may have been able to make that argument—and it would be a debatable one—just once, when they faced Duke this past September.

Before comparing the two units’ successes and failures in those nine—actually, 18—contests, let’s establish two points of clarification. Notre Dame and North Carolina State played in a literal hurricane this past October. Comparing that game to any other will accomplish nothing. Furthermore, before anyone starts griping about that afternoon’s play-calling, this is an exercise discussing defensive performances, not offensive. The run:pass distribution of Oct. 1, 2016, bears no significance here.

Secondly, the other two games the Irish played fitting this criteria but after VanGorder’s dismissal—Syracuse and Army—are included below. Only so much of the scheme changed mid-season, and the personnel did not.

If you are busy catching up from a long weekend and do not have the time to look at the numbers below, a quick summary for you: In five of the eight instances, Elko’s unit fared distinctly better than VanGorder’s in multiple notable statistical categories. However, the Deacons struggled with Army’s triple-option attack, and both 2014 Florida State and 2015 Clemson blew right through the aggressive defense far easier than they did against Notre Dame.

Presented in something resembling reverse chronological order: (more…)