Mailbag: 2016 schedule, Rebuild/reload, Robinson (and more)

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Part two of the mailbag. Thanks again for your questions.

 

irishsoccerfirst: Give us your take on the Irish schedule this coming season. Does it appear weaker than usual at this point? I mean Nevada and Army? Isn’t that two cupcakes? NC State and Syracuse are two weak ACC programs most years. VA Tech has been struggling of late, etc. Your thoughts at this early date would be appreciated, but it looks like any loss could be fatal.

I think Notre Dame’s schedule sets up pretty well for the Irish. I agree with you that Nevada and Army aren’t going to wow anybody, but sandwiching Nevada between Texas and Michigan State, and following up Army with Virginia Tech and USC is more than solid and not too many people will notice with that finish.

The ACC slate is going to be tough some seasons and lighter in others. Getting NC State as they continue to try and climb out is nice, and Syracuse is rebooting itself once again, this time with Dino Babers.

Like most schedules, you can argue anything you want. For those who want to talk up the difficulties, look at the murders row of head coaches facing off with BK and his staff: Charlie Strong, Mark Dantonio, David Cutcliffe, David Shaw and Mark Richt all feel like they have a home among the elite names in college football. Justin Fuente is a rising star, some say the same about Nevada’s Brian Polian, too.

If you’re looking for a reason to be bullish about the Irish, one factor is the schedule. I think it stacks up pretty well for Notre Dame.

To your point about one loss being fatal, that certainly hasn’t been the case so far in the two seasons the CFB Playoff has existed. If the Irish were a one-loss team in 2015, I think there’s a very good chance that Oklahoma was staying home last year and the Irish were the four-seed. (Stanford solved that for all of us.) But it is fair to say that this schedule won’t likely earn as much recognition as maybe other seasons have.

 

4horsemenrideagain:  Who is the one guy on defense that everyone else hates to get tackled by? Who is the one guy on offense that everyone else hates to have to tackle?

Both candidates for this award are off of last year’s roster, as the team usually agreed that a hit from Elijah Shumate was the worst part of practice and trying to stop C.J. Prosise was one of the hardest jobs they’d face.

If I were assigning these for the 2016 team, I’ll say Nyles Morgan on defense and Josh Adams on offense. Neither seem like guys I want to tackle.

 

dudeacow: What do you think of the possibility of Nyles Morgan being the sack leader for the defense? BVG rushed Schmidt a whole lot, but was ineffective due to his physical traits. Morgan is fast, big, and strong.

I’m not sure if he’ll be the sack leader. But I do think he’ll get home more often than Joe did, who hit the quarterback plenty but couldn’t quite seal the deal with a sack. That’s not necessarily an indictment on Joe’s physical traits (though playing with a bum shoulder all year didn’t help), but Nyles has shown an uncanny knack for wreaking havoc in his limited playing opportunities—so I do expect a few sacks from him.

Replacing Schmidt, All-American Jaylon Smith and Jarrett Grace won’t be easy. But I’m excited to see what Notre Dame’s linebacking corps looks like in 2016. A starting lineup of Morgan, James Onwualu and either Te’von Coney or Greer Martini is a pretty good looking group, especially from an athletic standpoint.

 

jerseyshorendfan: Keith, would you call the 2016 campaign more of a rebuilding year or are we “reloading” to the point that we may be in the hunt for the Final four? What, in your opinion, is going to be the Achilles heel of both the offensive and defensive units this year?

I’m 100 percent on the reload train. I don’t think there’s a rebuild left in this program, especially with the solid groundwork laid at quarterback and the strength in the trenches. Is it perfect? No. I think this staff is understanding that when Notre Dame has great players, they’re susceptible to leaving for the NFL just like other programs. Expect the staff to adjust how they recruit (and manage their roster) after losing guys like Will Fuller, Ronnie Stanley and Jaylon Smith without finishing their eligibility.

I have a hard time finding an achilles heel on the offense. This group is going to be loaded. If there was an undoing, I’d say it could be the right side of the offensive line. I’m also interested to see how this receiving corps plays without an established No. 1 receiver. Irish fans got pretty spoiled watching major production from Michael Floyd, TJ Jones and then Will Fuller. Is Torii Hunter that guy? Spring gives us hints. But we certainly haven’t seen it. The last factor on offense to consider is the quarterback position. The personnel won’t be the problem, but rather the balancing act of keeping everybody happy and united is one that will have a low margin for error.

Defensively, I’m watching the secondary. Getting a better performance from the back end is key. Funny enough, I could make an equally compelling argument that we should be worried about the defensive line— or the linebackers. So maybe it’s best to say that the relative youth of the unit is the achilles’ heel, especially considering all the concern about Brian VanGorder’s scheme.

 

bostonjan: Keith…..any word about ND doing a Showtime like series for this season? That show was very enjoyable, and I hope a similar series is planned. I realize that there is the weekly “Inside the Irish” program, but I would like more.

I’m sure Showtime would like to return to South Bend, but it’s not happening. That was a one-year experiment for the football program and I think both parties got exactly what they wanted out of it.

The series is likely continue with another program—and it’ll be a show I watch whether it’s Notre Dame or not. I found the inside look fascinating and I think it served the purpose Brian Kelly and Jack Swarbrick hoped it would, offering total transparency and a clear look at a program that’s taken plenty of shots in the past—not all of them fair.

The non-stop nature of that series and the fact that a small army of cameras and producers were following that team for the better part of five months is really, really taxing. That took some significant getting used to and not all players (or coaches) liked it.

And Jan, an “Inside the Irish” program? Did you just book me a weekly TV show? If so, let me know where the commission check should go—I’ll have my people get in touch with your people.

 

jerseyirish10: Keith, with news that Corey Robinson was out again for a concussion and is being evaluated Tuesday, how surprised would you be to see him announce he is giving up football? He clearly has a lot of outside interests, is a bright kid, and maybe just sees the writing on the wall that football isn’t his path anymore.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Brain injuries are scary. Especially for guys who like to use their brain.

Robinson certainly has lofty goals for life outside of football and everybody on campus—coaches, professors and administrators—want to see that he makes the best decision for him. That said, I think what Kelly said last week about Robinson wanting to return to the team is true. But he needs to get his concussion cleared up before doing anything else, and spring practice isn’t all that important for a guy with a lot of reps in the program.

(Worth reading: Former Stanford linebacker A.J. Tarpley wrote about retiring from the NFL after suffering a fourth concussion. You’ve got to think these stories will get more and more common.)

 

 

Notre Dame at Michigan State: Who, what, when, where, why and by how much

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WHO? Notre Dame at Michigan State. Many years, this matchup would warrant anticipatory headlines. In this rendition, two teams coming off historically-disappointing seasons are looking to prove they are on the path back to top-flight competitiveness.

WHAT? As may become a theme this season, this will come down to how the Irish offensive line fares against the Spartans’ defensive front seven.

WHEN? 8:00 p.m. ET. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:12, though if the preceding game runs long, a five-minute contingency should be expected. At that point, though, the game will begin one way or another.

WHERE? Spartans Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. Years ago, a venture to this site is where I first learned a traveler’s rule of thumb: Never make a trip where the roundtrip travel is longer than the time spent at the destination. I have since violated the rule a total of once, when the New York Yankees visited the Detroit Tigers in the 2011 divisional round. The wrong team won. Speaking of baseball and apropos of nothing else aside from being reminded of it this week, Cy Young threw 749 complete games, a full 110 more than the next-most in history, Pud Galvin’s 639.

Fox has the broadcast this week. Aside from that meaning Gus Johnson will be providing the exhilarating play-by-play, not sure what else to share about that fact.

WHY? This will be the last game — unless a bowl situation were to arise — between Notre Dame and Michigan State until 2026. Whoever wins will get to display the vaunted megaphone trophy for nearly a decade without worry. If that doesn’t get everyone’s competitive juices flowing, well, then that is not much of an indicator of anything because it is actually a pretty absurd keepsake.

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

BY HOW MUCH? This line moved as high as Notre Dame by five, never to this eye falling below three, and that is where it settled in as of this Friday evening typing. With a combined points total over/under of 54, the theoretical projected score would be an Irish 28-25 victory.

That might be a bit high-scoring, especially considering the performance of Notre Dame’s defense to date. If Georgia could not surpass 20 points, there is no reason to think the Spartans can.

Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 17. (2-1 record on the season.)

THIS WEEK’S INSIDE THE IRSH READING:
Monday Morning Leftovers: Notre Dame should punt less, a Georgia ticket arrest & Bob Diaco’s fate
Questions for the Week: Ankles, Claypool and Notre Dame’s history at Spartan Stadium
Notre Dame’s Opponents: Ready for a tough week for the dozen foes, but that could mean some promising upsets
MSU’s man-to-man pass D may allow Notre Dame & Wimbush to rush more; Kelly on resting Adams
Who among Notre Dame’s receivers might emerge?
And In That Corner … The Michigan State Spartans and a recovery from a 3-9 season
Things To Learn: On Notre Dame’s defensive line, offensive line and Wimbush’s road readiness
Kelly on C.J. Sanders, Kevin Stepherson and punt returns; injury update
Friday at 4: Four things you do not see

INSIDE THE IRISH COVERAGE FROM THE BOSTON COLLEGE GAME
Notre Dame rushes past Boston College and record books
Notre Dame offense may trend toward run, partly thanks to Wimbush
Things We Learned: Notre Dame lacks an aerial attack and a punt return, has a defensive future
Sunday Notre Dame Notebook: Canteen out for the season, Javon McKinley probably sitting also; Kelly on blocking strategy

THIS WEEK’S OUTSIDE READING:
Georgia ticket broker arrested for overselling Notre Dame vs. Bulldogs tickets
The NFL’s Crisis on Offense … may reflect a collegiate trend
At USC, Sundays and Mondays matter just as much as Saturdays
Remembering Michigan State’s epic “Little Giants” fake field goal against Notre Dame
Joe Thomas on measuring a running attack’s success
Nebraska fired athletic director Shawn Eichorst, putting the future employment of head coach Mike Riley, and by extension his defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, in doubt
A long look at Bob Davie’s checkered past as controversy swirls in New Mexico
The Unforgettable, Inspirational CFB Gameday Inside Iowa’s Children’s Hospital
A five-by-five Pac-12 After Dark bingo card for anyone staying up late to watch UCLA at Stanford
10 years after Mike Gundy’s “I’m a man! I’m 40!” rant, the columnist it was aimed at reflects

Friday at 4: Four things you do not see

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For all the enjoyment football brings so many, it is a game predicated on one sense above all others: sight.

Sure, the atmosphere in Spartans Stadium this weekend will include the sounds of yelling fans, the smells of propane grills and the taste of cheap, domestic buds. Even the weather will trigger the feeling of sweat.

The game itself, however, needs only working eyes. There is a reason film is usually watched on mute, after all.

There are some things related to the game not seen, or not seen often, though.

Let’s start with an educational session from the NFL’s Cal Ripken — Cleveland Browns left tackle Joe Thomas

Yes, that is the same Thomas as the one drafted in the same year, in the same round, by the same team as former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn. Quinn has not seen NFL action since getting eight starts for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012, throwing two touchdowns compared to eight interceptions.

Thomas, meanwhile, now blocks for his second former Irish passer while on his way to a likely 11th consecutive Pro Bowl. Note: This is Thomas’ 11th year in the NFL. Not only has he started all 162 games of his career, he has now played in more than 10,000 consecutive offensive snaps.

That’s, uhhh, a lot.

Thursday morning Thomas met with reporters and offered some insights to how he gauges a successful day at the office. (Fair warning: The following embedded video does include one four-letter word. Thomas’ point is quoted and summarized below, so the video may not be necessary to view.)

“You always hear a lot about 4.0 yards per carry, which is sort of everyone’s standard,” Thomas said. “… If you look at rushing in the NFL, you go alright, we went for 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 60. And then you go, we’re rushing really well, we have a seven-yard average. But really how are you going to get the offensive coordinator to call a run again if he’s getting one and two yards and facing a third-and-seven all the time?”

Well, you’re not.

Thomas prefers “rushing efficiency,” valuing runs of more than four yards, runs gaining first downs and runs finding the end zone. If those make up at least 60 percent of rush attempts, Thomas deems it a success.

“That’s what’s going to allow you to get 20, 25, 30 carries in a game,” he said. “Then you walk out of the game feeling good about getting your 100 yards at the end of the game versus saying you didn’t have four yards a carry, but you were really efficient so you did stay ahead of the sticks, and you were able to keep the offense on the field and be in manageable third downs.”

This space has previously argued the easiest way to learn if a rushing attack is potent or not is to simply note how many running attempts it has. This parallels Thomas’ argument: If the run game is not doing what it needs to do, the coaches will stop calling running plays. The run efficiency percentage is simply a more exact metric, albeit one you cannot see in a glimpse of a box score.

How has Notre Dame fared thus far this season?

Using Thomas’ standards, the Irish had a 61.90 percent rush efficiency in the season opener (42 rushes), a 32.35 percent rating in their one loss (34) and a 66.67 percent tally in last week’s record-setting rushing performance (51). (more…)

Kelly on C.J. Sanders, Kevin Stepherson and punt returns; injury update

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In his last media availability before Notre Dame heads to face Michigan State this weekend (8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Fox), Irish coach Brian Kelly did not discuss his receiver corps at all.

Just kidding.

Of the eight topics Kelly was questioned about, five of them dealt with wideouts in some respect, perhaps spending the most time on C.J. Sanders. The junior has yet to be seen contributing on offense this season.

“It’s not that he’s really done anything from last year to this year wrong,” Kelly said. “He’s actually stronger. I think he’s a better football player. You’re going to see him on the field. … As the season progresses, he’s going to play.”

Kelly cited the blocking provided by fifth-year Arizona State transfer Cam Smith as the biggest impediment between Sanders and an immediate increase in playing time, describing Smith’s blocking as “just physically” better. With sophomore Chase Claypool also seeing time on the boundary, Sanders faces stiffer competition for playing time.

“Do you move him back into the slot?” Kelly asked rhetorically. “We’re pretty comfortable moving guys around at this point at that position because of our need to put bigger-bodied guys in the offense with the tight end at that position.”

In other words, Kelly and Irish offensive coordinator Chip Long have moved receivers such as Sanders, and even Claypool, out to the boundary because they so often remove the slot receiver from the field in favor of an additional tight end.

Injury update

Speaking of Sanders, Kelly declared him “fine” in his recovery from a sprained ankle. For that matter, sophomore running back Tony Jones will be a “game-day decision” as to his availability due to a sprained ankle suffered against Boston College.

Kevin Stepherson update

There is no indication the sophomore receiver will join Notre Dame’s offense this week. Considering Stepherson did not even travel to face the Eagles, it is quite likely he watches this weekend on a television, as well. Yet, Kelly did speak positively of Stepherson’s return from something of an absence thus far this season.

“He’s had a good month,” Kelly said. “His last month has been pretty good. He’s been pretty consistent working to do the right things in the classroom and has exhibited the things that I’ve been looking for. He’s been working out with [the team] for the last week or so.”

But, to add some emphasis here again, Kelly did not imply Stepherson will play this weekend. In fact, the exact opposite.

“He’s still got a ways to go, but he’s making progress.”

On punt returns and Chris Finke

To complete this week’s second (third? fourth?!) receiver recap, Kelly defended junior receiver Chris Finke’s work as a punt returner this season. Irish opponents have punted 22 times in three games. Finke has attempted to return eight of them. He has netted a total of two yards.

“We’re pleased with him,” Kelly said. “There won’t be a change there.”

Kelly did include a caveat for praising Finke’s return game.

“We’ve been in a number of fourth down situations where we’ve asked for a fair catch and he hasn’t fair caught it,” Kelly said. “We have to be better there. He has to fair catch those balls.”

On the moments when Finke returned a punt to absolutely no avail, Kelly cited missed blocks as the culprit, not Finke’s decision to make a move with the ball.

“One of our gunners has to do better on hold-up,” he said. “We think we’ve had an opportunity for a couple of good returns. … If there’s a change, it will be with one of the gunners.”

Things To Learn: On Notre Dame’s defensive line, offensive line and Wimbush’s road readiness

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It is a curious, frustrating time in the college football season. We think we know everything. We actually know nothing.

Notre Dame beat up on Boston College and Temple, but fell a play short against Georgia. If the Bulldogs are what they appear to be, then the Irish may be a very competitive team this year. If they aren’t, then that one-play-short speaks much louder. This weekend should do wonders in providing that context when Georgia hosts Mississippi State. On a more micro scale …

Who does Irish defensive coordinator Mike Elko task with spying Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke?

Spartans quarterback Brian Lewerke cruised to a 61-yard touchdown run two weeks ago against Western Michigan. Preventing such a jaunt willb ea high priority for the Notre Dame defense. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The junior quarterback has already taken 15 carries for 171 yards (sacks adjusted) through two games this season. Notre Dame’s defensive success will not hinge entirely on limiting Lewerke’s ability to break from the pocket, but that will be a crucial part of it.

“He’s more than just a manager of the offense, he can throw it,” Irish coach Brian Kelly said Tuesday. “Highly accurate. He has more than just escapability. He’s fast, he can run.”

To limit that running, Elko will possibly assign a linebacker to keeping his eyes on Lewerke at most, if not all, times. There are two obvious candidates for this duty: seniors Nyles Morgan and Drue Tranquill.

Which one gets the gig more often will play a part in further understanding of Elko’s preferred defensive wrinkle, the rover, manned by Tranquill. To date, Tranquill’s role has been to crash the line on any obvious running play while providing coverage of tight ends otherwise. This has fit his skill set quite well. Rather than worry about the speed of a receiver challenging a safety deep, Tranquill is facing more physical-based assignments. The one thing the captain has never needed to worry about on the football field is his physicality.

With that job description in mind, Morgan may seem the more obvious choice to have an eye on Lewerke, but that may limit Morgan’s naturally tendencies of always finding his way to the ballcarrier. Such is the dilemma presented by a dual-threat quarterback.

Notre Dame’s ability to contain Lewerke will portend how Wake Forest and, to a much lesser extent, North Carolina may fare against the Irish defense. Deacons quarterback John Wolford has rushed for 226 yards on 29 carries (sacks adjusted, as usual) this season, though 108 of those yards came against Boston College, a defense very clearly vulnerable to quarterback rushes. Tar Heels quarterback Chazz Surratt has already notched three rushing touchdowns this season, though that is not the same inherent quandary of a truly mobile quarterback.

Part of the Irish defense’s discipline this weekend will come down to the young defensive line. Can those linemen mind their assignments?

“If you fall asleep in zone option, [Lewerke is] going to pull it and is capable of running out,” Kelly said.

In other words, if sophomore defensive end Daelin Hayes crashes too hard on a running back headed up the middle, Notre Dame could quickly be exposed to Lewerke racing up the sideline. It seems appropriate here to mention the two freshmen defensive tackles Kelly praised Tuesday, Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa and Kurt Hinish.

“We trust that they’re going to execute the techniques that we’ve asked them to,” Kelly said. “They’re not jumping out of their fits. There might be times where physically or technically there might be some mistakes, but they’re extremely coachable. … If we ask them to do something, they’re going to do it.”

If those two continue to successfully complement senior Jonathan Bonner and junior Jerry Tillery in the middle, that should offer Hayes the peace of mind to not over pursue a running back dive and instead man the outside lane. If he does not feel the need to make a play because he knows Hinish is capable of holding his own, that should help limit Lewerke’s chances, as well.

How will the Irish offensive line fare against a good, but not great, defensive front seven?
This plays into the introductory concept. Notre Dame’s offensive line protected junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush well against both Temple and Boston College, allowing a total of two sacks. As it pertains to the rushing attack, the offensive line opened hole after wide hole in those two contests. (more…)