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Talking Irish: Breaking down MSU with JJ Stankevitz

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A week after our spot-on analysis (kinda) led to a Notre Dame victory, we reunite and come to shockingly DIFFERENT conclusions about this Saturday’s matchup.

JJ and Keith chat, part two. Hope you enjoy.

 

JJ Stankevitz: Alright, so Michigan State: A top-12 team that we don’t seem to know much about. But we do know this, Mark Dantonio’s teams are 1) always going to play physically and 2) are generally pretty good. So what can you make of Sparty coming into Saturday night?

Keith Arnold: I’ve got nothing. And I’m not sure Michigan State fans do, either. I did my best to watch some of that Furman game — and asked Chris Vannini if it was one of those typical sleepwalk/smoke screens that the Spartans usually have before their September date with Notre Dame. He didn’t think so.
But I think that the DNA of the program is what it is. But the players filling those roles are still up for debate.

JJ: Well, outside of Malik McDowell and LJ Scott. But yeah, MSU is still going to press in coverage and try to force long, extended offensive drives. And their offense is going to be deliberate, trying to slow the pace of the game with four-yard gains and the occasional play-action pop. #B1G

We know opposing teams are going to pick on Nick Coleman — but how confident are you in A) Coleman’s ability and B) Michigan State’s ability to successfully challenge him?

KA: Coleman scares me. Kind of a lot. I have tweeted as much, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they hand this over to Donte Vaughn.

Now on the flip side of that, it wasn’t as if Tyler O’Connor was all that effective against Furman. But when you add suspect cornerback to very limited pass rush it doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy. What do you do about the ND pass rush?

JJ: Yeah, the lack of sacks is concerning.

KA: It’s kind of statistically insane.

JJ: And with an inexperienced corner, either Coleman or Vaughn, plus a freshman safety in Studstill, Kelly kind of alluded to it — you can’t run as many nickel packages as you would in normal circumstances. Which means putting the onus on getting sacks mostly on the front four and not on as many exotic blitzes, though it’s not like those have worked super well in the VanGorder era anyway.

I think this front four can be pretty strong against the run – especially if Jay Hayes cracks the rotation — but there isn’t that Day or Okwara on here who has a knack for getting to QB, at least not yet. And that is worrisome given the inexperience in the secondary. We saw it in 2012 – having a good D-line/front seven can do a lot to cover for an inexperienced secondary.

KA: BVG has his hands full. He’s already on the hot seat of every fan/writer/pundit, and now he’s forced to simplify things for a young secondary and generate a pass rush with a group that hasn’t shown that ability. I’ll ask you a rather rough question: Why is Notre Dame still running Andrew Trumbetti out there? Is it because Jay Hayes is still hurt? Or because they think he’s the best option?

JJ: Good question. I’ll say this: If the coaching staff thought Hayes was better and/or 100 percent healthy, he’d be out there. He took so many first-team reps during spring and preseason camp that it’s hard to imagine him not getting those as the season goes on.

KA: High Ankle Sprains.

JJ: They tend to linger.

KA: So impactful, even if BK had us thinking otherwise…

Notre Dame’s an 8-point favorite right now after opening at slightly less than a touchdown.

JJ: And S&P+ and FEI have ND winning, too, which surprised me a bit.

KA: Apparently those guys weren’t impressed by the Furman game, either. Is that hard to understand for you? What with the Spartans the higher ranked team — as high as No. 8 in the polls?

JJ: Yeah, but I think it goes to us not knowing much about Michigan State outside of that blah Furman game, and probably a public trust of the team with the better QB, which Notre Dame certainly has. Add in the home game and bam, you have a wildly high spread.

KA:  Put in order your trust of ND position groups:

A) Secondary
B) Wide Receivers
C) Pass Rush
D) Run Stop
E) Run Game
F) Pass Protection

JJ: 1. Run Game 2. Run stop 3. Pass Pro 4. WRs 5. Secondary 6. Pass Rush

And as an aside — run stop is so high because out of the 4-3, it’s actually been pretty good this year. Stick with base and it’s fine.

You?

KA: Pass Pro, Run Game, Wide Receivers, Run Game, Run Stop, Secondary…

In case you can’t tell, I’m still a bit wishy-washy on the whole defense, and I can’t shake that shock from watching a beat-up Texas OL stomp the Irish front seven.

JJ: Which is fair! It’s hard to trust this defense after that Texas game. But if we’re searching for positives, holding James Butler to 50 yards on 17 carries was pretty good, and Michigan State might try to run half the plays Texas did.

KA: I think the slo-mo offense will be huge for the Irish. But I also think you can’t look at Notre Dame’s defense (if you’re Michigan State) and not take a shot or ten at Nick Coleman and the young safeties. Add in a veteran (but reshuffled) OL, and a QB that’s got a lot of time in the system, and I think there’s some serious issues that still need to be solved. At least compared to Nevada.

JJ: It would, quite frankly, be irresponsible for them not to. It’s like when a pitcher is injured a bit – you bunt against them to make them prove they can field their position.

KA: I read something last week about Lane Kiffin / Nick Saban finding the weak link and just attacking it. Worked pretty well against USC for Bama. And expect MSU to do the same thing.

JJ: I’m guessing we won’t see Brian Kelly ripping Mike Denbrock/Sanford a new one if they’re up by 28 points with 43 seconds to go, though.

KA: Ha. No, think that one is safe.

JJ: But your point is exactly right – MSU has this offensive profile, but any good coach (which Dantonio is) is going to ID a weakness and try to exploit it.

So with all this being said — what’s your prediction? I went first last week, so you’re on the spot.

KA: Can you remind me how we did last week? I thought pretty good considering a goose-egg in the first quarter.

JJ: Pulling it up now…

KA: A pro’s way to buy time, obviously.

JJ: hahahaha. So last week we settled on Notre Dame 52, Nevada 24. Guess we gave Nevada too much credit and Notre Dame not enough. But we pretty much nailed the margin of victory! So at least there’s that.

KA: I’ve got this one: Notre Dame 27, Michigan state 17

JJ: I’m going to take Michigan State by a hair: MSU 27, ND 26.
/ducks

KA: Bold! What makes you go that way?

JJ: I think it’s just that general distrust in the Irish defense unless they prove otherwise.
And I think Michigan State is able to dictate the tempo both offensively and defensively that’ll ultimately be beneficial in the end. But if Notre Dame does win this one, you can bet I’m going to be picking them pretty frequently from here on out.

KA: The man in the black hat: JJ Stankevitz.

JJ: I hear there’s a sale on pitchforks at Lowe’s.

KA: Win and it’s 5-1 and a really big evening against Stanford.

JJ: Yes sir.

KA: Lose, and I’ve got no clue what’ll happen — but it’ll be less toxic than USC, that’s for sure.

JJ: Well, pretty much everything is.

KA: Well – there you have it. Another chat down, and KA going duckies and bunnies and sunshine and rainbows while JJ is the merchant of death. Or something close to that – not sure if I’m taking creative license or not.

JJ: Hey, picked ND to lose in Week 3 last year, and things turned out pretty great.

KA: I’ll direct all feedback to your personal email account.

JJ: Just not twitter. My mentions have already been on fire once from Texas Twitter and I’d prefer to avoid anything similar.

KA:  Unless you’d rather share your parents’ home phone number.

JJ: Of course! Feel free to reference this and throw it back at me if ND does win.

KA: Until next week my friend! Thanks for the good chat.

A quick breakdown of Notre Dame’s defensive roster

Associated Press
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Following a week of moves to and from Notre Dame’s roster, most notably — certainly most positively — on the defensive side, a quick look at the numbers at each position can shine a light on the months to come. Just like last week’s brief glance at the offense, the order of this listing is not intended to stake a stance on positional competitions. (In other words, it doesn’t try to figure out the mess at safety.)

For the time being, the years listed remain those currently. There is no clean date to transition forward a grade in this space. Thus, when senior linebacker Drue Tranquill’s name shows up, it is because he will be around yet in 2018. This is intended to aid conversations and debates in-person and online as they pertain to the coming season. Looks further ahead with thoughts on eligibility concerns will be more focused at some point in the coming offseason.

One last note: In looking at the linebackers, do not be surprised if the experience gap is filled by Tranquill and rover becomes even more of a matchup-based concept. Spring practice should shed some light on that possibility.

As of this morning, the Irish roster has 84 names on it, expecting at least three more commitments by Feb. 7, if not a graduate transfer or two. As always, the NCAA allows a maximum of 85 come fall.

Defensive end (7):
So. Daelin Hayes
Sr. Jay Hayes
So. Khalid Kareem
So. Julian Okwara
So. Ade Ogundeji
Fr. Kofi Wardlow
Inc. fr. Justin Ademilola

Defensive tackle (8):
Jr. Jerry Tillery
Sr. Jonathan Bonner
Fr. Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa
Fr. Kurt Hinish
Fr. Darnell Ewell
Jr. Micah Dew-Treadway
Inc. fr. Ja’Mion Franklin
Inc. fr. Jayson Ademilola

Linebacker (8):
Jr. Te’von Coney
So. Jonathan Jones
So. Jamir Jones
Early-enrolled fr. Jack Lamb
Early-enrolled fr. Bo Bauer
Fr. Drew White
Fr. David Adams
Early-enrolled fr. Ovie Oghoufo

Rover (4):
Sr. Drue Tranquill
Jr. Asmar Bilal
Fr. Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah
Inc. fr. Shayne Simon

Cornerback (7):
So. Julian Love
Jr. Shaun Crawford
Sr. Nick Watkins
So. Troy Pride
So. Donte Vaughn
Inc. fr. Tariq Bracy
Inc. fr. Joe Wilkins, Jr.

Safety (11):
So. Alohi Gilman
Jr. Nick Coleman
Inc. fr. Derrik Allen
Early-enrolled fr. Houston Griffith
So. Jalen Elliott
So. Devin Studstill
Fr. Jordan Genmark-Heath
Fr. Isaiah Robertson
Jr. Nicco Fertitta
So. D.J. Morgan
Inc. fr. Paul Moala

Stepherson may get the headlines, but loss of two RBs will cost Notre Dame most

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Notre Dame split with four players Tuesday night, two of them having a more noticeable ripple effect than the others.

Kevin Stepherson’s Irish career coming to a premature conclusion became an inevitability in December. The sophomore receiver forced the issue with back-to-back legal missteps underscoring a disregard for what must have already been a zero-tolerance situation. Though unproven, Notre Dame has a litany of options to replace Stepherson’s big-play potential.

To be blunt, the Irish will hardly notice Brandon Tiassum’s absence on the field in 2018. The junior defensive tackle was passed on the depth chart by two freshmen this past fall, and a few more newcomers may have pushed him further from playing time between now and Sept. 1.

But in losing two running backs — current sophomore Deon McIntosh and freshman C.J. Holmes — from the roster, Notre Dame will have to make some adjustments. If health were guaranteed the two remaining known commodities at the position, then the absences of McIntosh and Holmes could be written off with only a bit more consternation than Tiassum’s. At running back, though, health is not guaranteed. It is, in fact, rare.

Between junior Dexter Williams and sophomore Tony Jones, the Irish have the makings of a top-flight backfield. Williams has an abundance of playmaking ability, if lacking as both a receiver and a blocker, while Jones excels in those latter two capacities and can pick up chunks of yardage simply by bowling over defenders. But, at some point in the next 11 months, at least one of the two will be hampered. Maybe yet another ankle will turn balky. Maybe Williams’ quad will seize up again. Perhaps something more severe will befall one of, if not both, Notre Dame’s lead backs.

At that point, as the roster is currently, only early-enrolled freshman Jahmir Smith will be available. That will not be enough.

A year ago, the Irish entered spring practice with known-stalwart Josh Adams, Williams and Jones ready to go. Holmes had enrolled early. Those four were expected to be the running back corps. Then Holmes injured his shoulder early in the spring. The idea of only three healthy running backs was such an uncomfortable thought, the coaching staff opted to move McIntosh to the backfield from receiver.

Sophomore Deon McIntosh finished 2017 with 368 yards and five touchdowns on 65 carries, a 5.7 yards per rush average. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

As anyone who watched the latter half of the 2017 season will attest, it was a good thing they did.

How Notre Dame goes about finding a fourth back this year will sort itself out only with time. Some will bandy about the thought of moving rivals.com three-star cornerback Tariq Bracy to the offensive backfield. He excelled both as a running back and a cornerback in high school, and the Irish have depth at the latter position these days. Bracy is certainly a possibility.

The fringe will posit this is a prime opportunity to move junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush away from taking snaps. That concept will not and should not be considered for even the five seconds it took to read that sentence.

Most likely — perhaps in combination with turning to Bracy or another, less obvious suspect — Notre Dame is already urgently looking for a second running back in this recruiting class. Finding one will be easier suggested than executed, and doing so will likely take away from adding at another position.

The Irish currently have 22 commitments in this class, 21 signed and consensus three-star offensive tackle Luke Jones (Pulaski Academy; Little Rock, Ark.) ready to do so in February. They were likely planning to reel in another offensive lineman, another defensive back and a receiver with the remaining three spots in the class.

For example, rivals.com four-star/247sports.com five-star offensive tackle Nick Petit-Frere (Berkeley Prep; Tampa, Fla.), consensus four-star cornerback Noah Boykin (H.D. Woodson High School; Washington, D.C.) and consensus three-star receiver Lawrence Keys (McDonogh 35; New Orleans, La.). There are a litany of other permutations of that combination, but the point stands. Adding a running back to that limited capacity will take away from somewhere else.

RELATED READING: With four spots remaining, what recruits is Notre Dame still chasing? (Dec. 23)

Notre Dame does theoretically have the option to exceed 25 recruits in the class by counting some of the newly-arrived seven early enrollees toward last year’s recruit class numbers. It is essentially a known loophole within NCAA rules, but that theory is unlikely to become reality.

In the long view, it could create an exacerbated roster crunch in years to come. That algebra is constantly shifting. Exceeding 25 players in this class would also necessitate four recruiting successes in an abbreviated period with a shallow pool of prospects remaining after the early signing period.

Thus, the odds stand at slim of the Irish coaching staff exceeding 25 signees in this class, meaning Jones plus only three more Feb. 7. With Tuesday’s churn, a running back will likely be one of those three, and thus another position will not be.

Losing McIntosh and Holmes drains Notre Dame’s running back depth in 2018. It also shifts, ever so slightly-yet-noticeably, the roster in the years immediately afterward.

Kevin Stepherson, three others no longer on Notre Dame roster

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Irish head coach Brian Kelly and Notre Dame parted ways with four underclassmen Tuesday, in a move only partially-expected. Sophomore receiver Kevin Stepherson, sophomore running back Deon McIntosh, freshman running back C.J. Holmes and junior defensive tackle Brandon Tiassum are no longer part of the team, a University spokesperson confirmed.

Pete Sampson of Irish Illustrated first reported the dismissals. The spring semester began Tuesday.

Stepherson’s departure, at least, was widely-expected after a December weekend of bad decisions brought his count of mishaps to four during his brief Irish career and induced an indefinite suspension. The lesser of those transgressions came with Holmes at his side, as the duo was charged with shoplifting from a nearby mall. Stepherson was also charged with possession of marijuana, speeding and driving without a valid license. Back in August of 2016, he was one of five players charged with marijuana possession, though no suspension came from that issue.

Following the shoplifting incident but before the additional Stepherson charges had come to light, Kelly expressed distinct disappointment in the choice made on a Friday night.

“You can’t steal, and they did,” he said. “I can tolerate a lot of things, but I can’t tolerate stealing. That’s why they’re suspended indefinitely and they put themselves in jeopardy.”

Kelly said he did hope to keep the players, specifically Stepherson, eligible so if they were removed from the team a transfer may be in their futures.

“If I wasn’t to have him back in the football program we want him to maintain his eligibility here so he can transfer to another program,” Kelly said.

Sophomore Deon McIntosh provided crucial depth for Notre Dame as ankle sprains limited juniors Josh Adams and Dexter Williams and sophomore Tony Jones. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

McIntosh was sent home from Orlando during Citrus Bowl preparations due to a violation of team rules. Tiassum’s exit will be a question for the time being, with no public knowledge of any issues.

While long-presumed, the loss of Stepherson still bears the most notice. When engaged, he was Notre Dame’s most explosive receiver, finishing 2017 with 359 yards and five touchdowns on 19 catches in only eight games, with genuine offensive involvement in only six. He caught 25 passes for 462 yards and five scores in his freshman season.

Cutting ties with both McIntosh and Holmes comes as a bit more of a surprise and will cut deep into the Irish running back depth. As ankle injuries limited the running game mainstays, McIntosh provided a reserve option, finishing the year with 368 yards and five touchdowns on 65 carries, a 5.7 yards per rush average. Holmes was activated to further counteract the injury concerns. If McIntosh were banged up, Notre Dame theoretically had one more option. He finished with eight carries for 32 yards.

Without the two backups, the Irish have only three running backs currently on the roster in junior Dexter Williams, sophomore Tony Jones and early-enrolled Jahmir Smith. Williams and Jones were likely to remain the top two on the depth chart, mitigating McIntosh and Holmes again, but the depth is always crucial at running back, as 2017 certainly proved.

Tiassum was unlikely to see much playing time in the future thanks to the returns of junior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and senior defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner announced Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Tiassum made two tackles in 2017.

Bonner’s decision to return brought the Irish roster up to 87 players with three spots open in the current recruiting cycle. That count had already presumed Stepherson off the roster. Thus, this development drops that number to 84, including committed consensus three-star offensive tackle Luke Jones. The NCAA maximum allowed come fall is 85.

Notre Dame returns entire defensive line with DT Bonner’s fifth-year decision

Associated Press
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Notre Dame’s defensive line will return intact in 2018. Irish head coach Brian Kelly confirmed senior defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner has changed his mind and will return for a fifth season Tuesday.

ND Insider’s Eric Hansen first reported Bonner’s shift.

In November, Bonner told Notre Dame’s independent student newspaper, The Observer, he did not intend to take a fifth year. Bonner later announced his mother had been diagnosed with cancer, lending some context to his decision to cut short his football career.

Apparently some combination of the decisions to return from junior linebacker Te’von Coney and junior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery, the 2018 defense’s potential and whatever other factors led Bonner to make a last-minute return to school. First-time defensive coordinator Clark Lea is certainly grateful.

Bonner provided consistent production in the defensive interior in 2017, finishing the season with 30 tackles, 3.5 for loss with two sacks. In his first three years with the Irish, Bonner hardly broke into the rotation. Suddenly, he was a force at the point of attack and held his own no matter the opponent.

Building upon that moving forward seems likely considering Bonner will not need to shoulder as much of the load. Freshmen Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa will have a greater role with another year under his belt, not to mention freshmen Kurt Hinish and Darnell Ewell. An increased rotation will benefit all involved.

At this point, the only contributing defensive lineman lost from 2017 will be end Andrew Trumbetti, out of eligibility. He split time with classmate Jay Hayes, so it can be argued the entire starting defensive line returns. A year ago, that unit was seen as a weakness, but it established itself as a strength as the season went on.

Bonner’s addition brings the running count on Notre Dame’s roster to 87 players, not counting three more possible commits in the incoming freshman class. The NCAA maximum is 85.