PALO ALTO, CA - SEPTEMBER 17:  Christian McCaffrey #5 of the Stanford Cardinal carries the ball against the USC Trojans during the first half of their NCAA football game at Stanford Stadium on September 17, 2016 in Palo Alto, California.  (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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Recalibrating expectations for Irish

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The College Football Playoff isn’t in the cards. Not with two early-season losses. Not with the type of defense the Irish are playing. And certainly not with a young roster still learning on the job.

But the season is far from over.

So while some will continue to call for Brian VanGorder’s head or search the head coach’s Twitter likes for the next big off-field controversy, Brian Kelly and his young team have a season to play.

Nobody throws in the towel in mid-September. And there are plenty of ways to turn this season into a success—though it’ll require some recalibrated expectations. Consider this an exercise in that.

With three games of data in hand, let’s take a look at the rest of the Irish schedule, projecting how this season could break week by week.

 

CATEGORY ONE: GOTTA WINS

Duke (1-2): No, not just because it’s the next one. But because Duke’s season was derailed in late August when quarterback Thomas Sirk reinjured his achilles tendon, ending the senior’s year before it even started. That’s taken some punch out of Duke’s offense and put too much pressure on the team’s undermanned defense. It should be a good Saturday to get a bad taste from the Irish’s mouth.

 

Army (3-0): This is no cupcake, as Army has been in year’s past. Just look at the damage Army has done in its opening three games, laying it on Temple in the season opener, beating Rice handily and then waxing UTEP. That doesn’t mean that the Shamrock Series game isn’t a must-win, but after watching this defense, you can’t be sure that the Irish will have their option game on point just because they did last season. With a young defense still learning things on the fly, this game is far scarier than ever imagined.

 

CATEGORY TWO: SHOULD WINS

Syracuse (1-2): Dino Babers’ team isn’t ready for primetime. And they aren’t going to have a true home field advantage. Moving the game into the Meadowlands will take away any of the benefits of the Carrier Dome, though Babers’ hyper-speed offense might have found its footing by then and could make for a long weekend for the Irish.

Any other season and I’d have chalked this game into category one. But after watching the defensive performance against Texas and Michigan State, this one has me worried, especially with a noon start just announced.

 

Navy (3-0): Ken Niumatalolo is rolling along, even if he’s had to replace starting quarterback Tago Smith. The Midshipmen pulled off a huge upset of Bob Diaco’s UConn team and they keep winning, beating Tulane last weekend to move to 3-0 as well.

They’ll have a week off before playing Air Force, the first of five tough tests before playing the Irish. The game comes just a week after the Irish host Miami, and is a really-early 11:30 kickoff in Jacksonville. The first of back-to-back option games, Navy is almost a game that’ll put immense pressure on both the offense and defense, with the Midshipmen limiting possessions and forcing the Irish defense to take them off the field.

 

North Carolina State (2-1): I very nearly put this into the 50-50 category, but am keeping it here because of the Wolfpack’s suspect schedule strength. Boise State graduate transfer quarterback Ryan Finley looks like he’ll be a handful for the Irish, already sporting a shiny 6:0 TD:INT ratio. Throw in a big running game and the fact that Dave Doeren is still looking for a big win three years into his run at NC State, and you get the feeling that the Wolfpack faithful will have this one circled on the schedule.

 

 

CATEGORY THREE: COIN FLIP

Virginia Tech (2-1): New coach Justin Fuente has started life after Frank Beamer off quite nicely for the Hokies, winning twice in his first three games, including an absolute beat down of Boston College 49-0. It helps that he’s found his quarterback, junior Jerod Evans, a juco transfer who has shaken things up immediately. The Hokies defense seems to be doing good things, with holdover Bud Foster still in Blacksburg. And the mix of attacking defense and opportunistic offense hasn’t felt like a good matchup lately for the Irish.

 

USC (1-2) This only stays as a coin flip because the Trojans have been the biggest dumpster fire in the country this season. After opening up with an embarrassing stomping at the hands of Alabama, things haven’t gotten much better for Clay Helton. He’s dealt with off-field distractions both serious (sexual assault chargers) and self-inflicted (JuJu Smith-Schuster fighting his teammates), as well as terrible self-discipline on the field. At 1-2 with two lopsided losses already, the hiring of Helton instead of trying to get a fresh start is looking dumber and dumber.

 

Miami (3-0): Entering the season, this felt like a game the Irish should win, with Mark Richt transitioning the Miami program after finally cutting bait on the Al Golden era.  But with Brad Kaaya throwing the football and the Hurricanes taking care of an admittedly cupcake-ish start, consider me a pessimist that the young Irish defense can find a pass rush and good coverage by then.

Again, things will reveal themselves over the next month. For the Irish, they can right the ship. For the Canes, their true talents will be revealed. But the Irish defense will be in the crosshairs that Saturday, with Kaaya the best quarterback on the Irish schedule.

 

CATEGORY FOUR: SPRING AN UPSET

 

Stanford (2-0): The Cardinal have been tested early this season and passed swimmingly, grinding out comfortable wins against Kansas State and USC. They feature college football’s best all-around running back and a defense that’s only getting better. They’ll bring a physical attack to South Bend, one that’s much better than the Spartans offense that bludgeoned the Irish in the trenches.

Of course, Notre Dame found a way to slow down Christian McCaffery last season, only to lose when Kevin Hogan lit them up through the air. The Cardinal have three Pac-12 opponents—at UCLA, at No. 9 Washington and Washington State—on the slate before the night kickoff in South Bend, giving us a chance to see just how good new quarterback Ryan Burns is. But the Cardinal defense looks like its back to its stingy ways, and the Irish will need to play a great football game to win this one.

Mailbag: All about BK

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 17:  (L-R) Sam Kohler #29, head coach Brian Kelly, Grace Kelly and Hunter Bivin #70 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish sing the alma mater following a loss to the Michigan State Spartans of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium on September 17, 2016 in South Bend, Indiana.  Michigan State defeated Notre Dame 36-28. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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Welcome to a fairly action-packed Mailbag. Why didn’t one of you guys remind me to do these more often?

This one, as the title suggests, is all about Brian Kelly.

 

@chrise384: Do you think that silence from Swarbrick this week means anything or do you think it’s status quo and BK is back in ’17?

I think Swarbrick’s been silent because there’s nothing else to say. He made his comment to ESPN that Kelly would be back in 2017. Why would it benefit him to say anything else?

Kelly also made comments—10 feet away from his boss—that he’d be back and doesn’t want to go anywhere. So other than releasing a 2:37 a.m. tweet reiterating Kelly’s intentions—and essentially calling B.S. on the reports that BK was looking to get out—there’s no reason to respond to the noise, when there’s a ton of work to do and big decisions still to make.

Speaking of those…

 

Domer521: Keith – The banquet is next Friday evening. Do you expect any announcements regarding recruits or DC/assistant coaches before then?

I don’t. For a variety of reasons, I think Kelly is waiting to make any formal moves on his staff until after that evening. And in reality, any college assistant that’s going to come to Notre Dame is probably coaching in a bowl game, and won’t leave his program until after that game is played.

(That doesn’t mean that BK isn’t lining things up. I expect that he is.)

So while the idea of getting a coordinator on hand now might be ideal, the reality of the situation is that you need someone ready to hit the recruiting trail after the New Year, taking the world by storm for that final month and closing stretch until Signing Day.

 

@GhostAKG: Many are saying Charlie Strong for our new DC. Is that good/realistic? And what are some of the names you’ve been hearing more?

I was one of the people to speculate, but the more you think about it the less it makes sense. Charlie Strong is a head coach. And a good one. Any return to South Bend would feel incredibly temporary, with the circus following every job vacancy that opens up—with fans and media speculating, “Is this the one to get Strong back to the head job?”

That’s not a headache BK and company would want to deal with, especially when you consider how much this collective fanbase sweats out coordinator hires or parallel moves.

(Remember when Tony Alford left after Signing Day and it felt like someone died around here?)

Charlie Strong is a good man and a good coach. But that’s the wrong type of hire for ND. I think he’ll probably take a year off to examine the landscape, continue to cash those fat checks coming from Austin, and then get back into it next year.

 

irishwilliamsport:

Keith, I know this is an exercise in futility but I’ll ask a mailbag question… What would you guess BK’s combined job approval rating is among all fan bases ?

You’ve got me. No clue. Does anybody have a good job approval rating?

At this point, I don’t think anybody’s approval rating is all that high at 4-8, to the point that Jack Swarbrick—a guy who might be the most powerful and intelligent athletic director in the country—has seen fans turn on him as well.

I wasn’t quite sure what you were getting at with your question about “all fan bases,” but maybe you were talking about the perception of Kelly both inside and out of the program? If so, I thought Colin Cowherd’s take on Kelly, at least from a national perspective and a guy who watches a lot of college football, is interesting. (It’s a perspective that’s pretty common, I must say.)

 

codenamegee: 

What has Brian Kelly done to make you think he can win a championship at Notre Dame. Looking at his FBS coaching resume his teams have never beaten a top 5 team. I just don’t get why everyone thinks he’s a good coach. Notre Dame is poorly coached (too many mental breakdowns), offense lacks imagination (Running plays are too predictable, no tail back screens, no delay draws, lack of counters and traps). Yet all I hear how Brian Kelly is this great coach or Brian Kelly is a great offensive mind. If he is, he hasn’t showed it since he’s been in South Bend.

Well, first off—and this is a biggie—he played for one. So let’s not ignore that. And he was maybe one play away from getting invited to playing for another last year, a game-winning, last-second field goal against Stanford knocking the Irish from the playoff.

Now I get that playing for one isn’t the same as winning one. And when it comes to comparing this program to Alabama’s, frankly I don’t think Notre Dame has a chance to get to that level until Nick Saban retires… or the NCAA finds something illegal in his program. So if that’s the bar you’ll set, I’m not sure he can get there. And I’m not sure Notre Dame is willing to do what it takes to get there. And frankly, that’s something I’m okay with—especially as you

Last point for you—have you really heard anybody calling Brian Kelly a good coach lately? Is anybody following Notre Dame saying Kelly’s done a good job this season? Has the coach himself even said that? Have I?

Listen, I get it. Losing seasons are terrible. They are really painful and this one came out of nowhere, making it worse. Then throw on top of that just how close the games were—each week a decision here or there, or a blown assignment or missed opportunity sometimes the singular difference between a win and a loss.

That all adds up. And it certainly will carry into next season, a direct reflection on the coach’s job status, regardless of the length of his remaining contract.

 

irishdog80: Can Brian Kelly truly survive and thrive as head coach at Notre Dame or is his best opportunity a fresh start at a new school or pro team?

I don’t think Kelly would’ve stayed if he didn’t think he could thrive. He could get another job if he wanted one. And I don’t think Swarbrick would’ve let him stick around if he didn’t have comfort that the football program—a team that he spends more time around than anybody outside the players and the coaches—was in good hands, and that this was a bad season, not a bad program.

That’s a really good question though, Irishdog. We’ve seen Bob Stoops rally. We’ve seen David Shaw bounce back, though neither pulled a four-win season. And for now, I think Kelly can, too. But it’s worth pointing out that the rumor everybody seemed to be fired up about, three-win & nine-loss Mark Dantonio, would be a huge coaching upgrade over Kelly is funny, considering Dantonio just took a College Football Playoff team and drove it off a cliff.

 

 

irishcatholic16: With reports that Brian Kelly is seeking job opportunities outside of Notre Dame then shortly after saying that he’s committed to Notre Dame along with him bolting Cincinnati in the same fashion (saying he would stay then leaving), do you think he will lose the trust of his team and could we see more decommits as a result? Will the team trust him knowing that he isn’t fully committed?

I have no belief that those reports are true. And I have no reason to think that Kelly’s team—seven years in—would have their trust of the man leading the program hinging on reports from national media pundits.

Are we still talking about the way he left Cincinnati? Because it sure looked to me an awful lot like every coach leaves their program—Tom Herman just the latest example of a coach left in an unwinnable situation, with the media ready to pounce by asking unanswerable questions.

Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t doubt that Kelly’s agent was talking to teams. He was. He’s the same guy that reps Herman, and a handful of other top-shelf coaches. But that’s what agents do. They talk about their clients, 99% of the time without the client ever having any idea he’s doing it.

 

 

bjc378:

I’ll ask the obvious question. Sorry, I didn’t listen to the podcast.

Do you (still) think BK should be the Irish coach next year? If so, how long of a leash do you give him next year and what changes would you demand? If not, or if he decides to coach elsewhere, what’s your wish list look like?

No apology necessary, first off, on the podcast. It’s supplemental, but listen for John Walters’ wisdom, it’s basically like telling your friends you subscribe to Newsweek.

As for BK, yes I do think he should be the coach next year. I don’t think Notre Dame is a program that should fire someone for a single bad season—period. I didn’t like it when they did it to Ty (in retrospect it was the right thing to do), and I wouldn’t like it if they did it to Kelly, a year off a ten-win season and a Fiesta Bowl appearance.

(Also worth noting, they don’t do it in hockey, basketball, baseball, soccer, or any other sport.)

As for the leash? That’s hard to say. I think we’ll know quite a bit about this team at the end of next September. They’ll have played Temple (the potential AAC champ coached by one of the nation’s underrated head coaches in Matt Rhule), Georgia, Boston College, Michigan State and—don’t laugh—Miami (Ohio), who has got it going now under Chuck Martin. So if that month goes sideways and the season does too, I won’t have any problem with Swarbrick trying to upgrade and make a change.

As for the wish list? No clue. Not at this point. I’ll take Jon Gruden off of it, so cross him off before anybody asks me. And any other NFL head coach.

But I’d start by looking at someone like Willie Taggart, a young Harbaugh protege who coached at Stanford and has now done good work as a head coach at both Western Kentucky and USF.

Drue Tranquill named first-team Academic All-American

Drue Tranquill
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Drue Tranquill was named a first-team Academic All-American. The junior safety, who returned from his second major knee injury during his three-year career, earned the honors after posting a 3.74 GPA in mechanical engineering.

Tranquill is Notre Dame’s first academic All-American since Corey Robinson earned the honor after the 2014 season. He finished second on the team in tackles with 79 and lead the team in solo stops with 52. He also had two TFLs and an interception.

Tranquill is Notre Dame’s 60th Academic All-American, the third-most of any school behind Nebraska and Penn State. He’s active in the university community, serving as a mentor for the Core Leadership Team for Lifeworks Ministry, and is a member of Notre Dame Christian Athletes. He is a also member of the Student-Athlete Advisory Council (SAAC) and Rosenthal Leadership Academy.

 

Postseason Mailbag: Now Open

SAN ANTONIO, TX - NOVEMBER 12: Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly leads his team onto the field before the start of their game against Army in a NCAA college football game at the Alamodome on November 12, 2016 in San Antonio, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)
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It’s been too long. Let’s talk about the season, the decisions ahead and where Notre Dame stands after its nightmare of a 2016 season.

Drop your questions on Twitter @KeithArnold or in the comments below.

 

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If you’re interested in hearing my recap on the USC game and where Notre Dame’s goes now that the season is over, give a listen to the latest episode of Blown Coverage, with Newsweek’s John Walters. 

 

Report: Zaire set to depart with graduate transfer

Malik Zaire
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The wheels are in motion for Malik Zaire‘s exit from Notre Dame. What felt like an inevitability after Zaire lost out to DeShone Kizer after the Texas game is now a reality, as the Ohio native is expected to receive his release tomorrow, according to a report from Pete Sampson at Irish Illustrated.

Sampson identified four programs as potential landing spots for Zaire: Florida, Pitt, Michigan State and Wisconsin, Power Five programs that all had better seasons (minus the Spartans) than Notre Dame. All have uncertainty atop their quarterback depth chart, though none look like guaranteed jobs.

With Notre Dame out of a bowl, Zaire can get a jump start on looking around, capable of taking visits and finding a home after the semester. That would let him join a program in time for spring drills, where he’d compete and be able to play out his final year of eligibility.

When Zaire leaves he’ll join a line of recent quarterbacks to finish their eligibility elsewhere. Dayne Crist, Andrew Hendrix, Gunner Kiel and Everett Golson all either played or were recruited by Brian Kelly and finished their careers elsewhere. That could leave a scenario—one many predict—where the top-two on Notre Dame’s depth chart depart, Kizer to the NFL and Zaire elsewhere, turning the keys over to Brandon Wimbush who redshirted this season.