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Friday at 4: Kelly’s ‘most-potent offense yet’

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Let’s conclude the Phil Steele preview portion of the summer with a look at Notre Dame’s offense. It should not take too long.

Why not? Well, for one thing, football season is still eight weeks away. Time in July may be better spent pondering how San Antonio Spurs guard Patty Mills secured a $50 million contract in an NBA enjoying an influx of point guards. Let’s all take confidence from that deal — ceilings are reachable, peaks attainable, unexpected successes achievable.

For that matter, Steele’s projection for the Irish offense hinges almost entirely on one particular player reaching his individual ceiling for the season. That may have seemed to be a forced transition, but it genuinely did develop organically,

When Steele claims this could be Brian Kelly’s “most-potent offense yet,” he stakes that claim on junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush successfully utilizing the talent around him. In ranking individual position groupings, Steele puts every Notre Dame offensive group in the country’s top-10 except for the quarterback, landing at No. 53. If Wimbush can take advantage of those surroundings, Steele fully expects the Irish to exceed 2015’s Kelly-era high of 34.2 points per game.

“He could be a breakout player this year,” Steele said. “I like the surrounding talent around him. A lot of times, that’s a key indicator for a quarterback.

“You take a look at Deondre Francois for Florida State last year. He probably would have had a fantastic year if he hadn’t been running for his life half the game and taking all those hits.”

Wimbush certainly should not be running for his life, playing behind an offensive line Steele considers the country’s No. 6 front, strengthened by projected first-team All-American senior left guard Quenton Nelson and projected second-team All-American fifth-year senior left tackle Mike McGlinchey. With that protection, Wimbush will throw to a receiving corps only bettered by two others in Steele’s eyes (Oklahoma State and Colorado), led by a projected fourth-team All-American in junior Equanimeous St. Brown.

RELATED READING: Friday at 4: ‘They can only get better’ (June 30)
Friday at 4: Under the radar notes on Notre Dame’s opponents (June 23)

If that’s not enough, Steele sees the running back trio of juniors Josh Adams and Dexter Williams and sophomore Tony Jones, Jr., as the country’s 10th best set of ballcarriers, largely led by Adams.

“As long as he stays healthy, Adams will easily break 1,000 yards this season.”

Yet it all comes back to Wimbush, a junior who has not started a collegiate game and has thrown a total of five career passes, completing three for 17 yards. Shouldn’t that lack of experience diminish Steele’s high expectations? Won’t growing pains hamper Notre Dame’s attempt to match Steele’s computers’ estimates of 34.3 points per game?

Here, Steele takes a step back, approaching from a macro view to make a valid point.

“People underrate teams with first-year starting quarterbacks,” he said. “After three or four games, you’re experienced. We see first-year quarterbacks have a great deal of success.”

If a quarterback were to start all four years and reach — let’s make this math easy for everyone’s sake—two bowl games during that span, he would play 50 career games. By the end of September, that quarterback would have played 10 percent of his career. The experience does accumulate quickly.

Wimbush will obviously not start all four years. He has three years of eligibility remaining, so that makes a maximum of 36 games plus bowl games. Again, partly for the efficiency of the math, let’s optimistically say Wimbush stays all three seasons and Notre Dame reaches the College Football Playoff National Championship in his fifth and final year. That would equal 40 career starts, presuming health. With that ambitious thinking, Wimbush’s career will be 10 percent complete when the Irish return from East Lansing, Mich., this season.

“A team with a first-year quarterback can do well, but generally everybody says, they have a new quarterback, they’re not going to do well this year.”

After mentioning Wimbush very well may have a stronger arm than either former Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer (now with the Cleveland Browns) or Malik Zaire (transferred to Florida), even suggesting Wimbush may have a “higher upside” than either of the other two, Steele brings his complimentary assessment back to the present, noting new Irish offensive coordinator Chip Long’s success last season at Memphis.

A junior-college transfer, Riley Ferguson threw for 3,698 yards on 280-of-443 passing with 32 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. Like Wimbush this fall, that was Ferguson’s first year as a starter.

“You have to think there is going to be more offense this year,” Steele said. “I think they can get it done, provided Wimbush stays healthy. I’m very high on him.”

When Steele follows an imperative verb with a qualifier of “this year,” it may strike most as generic phrasing. But considering his predilection for basing thoughts in numbers, a look at Notre Dame’s trends over the last five seasons shows just how much of a dip 2016 was.

2012: 412.2 yards per game; 25.8 points per game.
2013: 405.8 yards per game; 27.2 points per game.
2014: 444.9 yards per game; 32.8 points per game.
2015: 466.4 yards per game; 34.2 points per game.
2016: 417.6 yards per game; 30.9 points per game.

The obvious question is, was 2016 an outlier or the beginning of a steep decline? Steele’s computers predict the Irish 2017 averages as 445.4 yards and 34.3 points, indicating the answer is more the former than the latter.

Whether those computers are correct or not lands at the feet and on the arm of Wimbush. No pressure, young man.

If nothing else, Brandon, think of Patty Mills. That young Australian certainly never believed he would turn a solid career at Saint Mary’s College (Calif.) into $12.5 million per year while backing up Dejounte Murray. Yet, Mills did it. If he can do that, there is no reason the Irish offense cannot near five touchdowns a game.

There is also no reason for you to still be here reading this at 4:07 p.m. on a Friday. There are other, more tangible dreams and distractions to go chase.

Notre Dame adds another 2019 commitment out of Georgia

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Eight months from now, Notre Dame may be forced to sign a smaller recruiting class than usual thanks to the larger class this past recruiting cycle. If that expectation does indeed hold, this past week’s five commitments, including consensus three-star safety Kyle Hamilton’s (Marist High School; Atlanta) on Tuesday evening, will be a hefty portion of the class.

Hamilton becomes the second safety in the class, and in the week, following the Saturday pledge of rivals.com four-star Litchfield Ajavon (Episcopal H.S.; Alexandria, Va.). Hamilton’s list of finalists included Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson, a grouping more telling than perhaps his recruiting ranking is.

Some of that expected potential may derive from Hamilton’s 6-foot-3 frame. Such length at safety would be a change for the Irish, currently without a safety taller than six-feet in the rotation. Even heralded incoming-freshman Derrik Allen, also out of Georgia, is listed at only 6-foot-1.

It is a coincidence those two Georgia recruits, one signed and one now verbally-committed, are both safeties. Add in the January commitment of rivals.com three-star cornerback K.J. Wallace (Lovett; Atlanta), and a third defensive back comes from the state, along with class of 2018 signees tight end Tommy Tremble and running back C’Bo Flemister. Five prospects from Georgia, presuming both Hamilton and Wallace do indeed sign with Notre Dame, is not a coincidence.

“My point being is that it’s such a fertile ground in recruiting, you just need to be in [Georgia], and there’s great football players in there,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly said in December 2017, during the inaugural early signing period. “We’ve got so many players that we can talk about that came of there. It’s just having a presence and getting back into a very, very good recruiting area for us. We need to have a great presence there.”

No matter what state Hamilton comes from, he could find himself quickly in the mix at safety upon his arrival. Presuming health for the current safety depth chart, juniors Jalen Elliott and Devin Studstill will have one year of eligibility remaining apiece upon Hamilton’s enrollment. Junior Alohi Gilman will have two, thanks to spending the 2017 season sidelined following his transfer from Navy. Early-enrolled freshman Griffith and Allen will both have three more years, presuming both play in 2018.

Thus, Hamilton and Ajavon could find themselves backing up that last duo as soon as 2020.

Blue-Gold Game Leftovers: Notre Dame’s offensive ceiling is tantalizing, though also unlikely

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Immediately following the 2017 spring game, I walked by two much smarter, savvier and more veteran Notre Dame reporters on our way to post-game interviews. Our two minutes of exchange included them riffing on various hypothetical position changes that were eventually not seen come fall, including how much better of a guard than a tackle Tommy Kraemer could be. It should be noted, the junior began lining up at guard this spring.

My contribution to the conversation hinged entirely on repeating, “That offense just isn’t ready. It’s not close to ready.”

Of course, that assessment figured the spring game struggles were against a porous Irish defense, something freshly-arrived and since-departed defensive coordinator Mike Elko had already taken tangible steps toward fixing, far quicker than expected.

That evaluation also failed to recognize the potential of a running attack led by Josh Adams. Notre Dame knew it had a stalwart running back, and did not need to see more than eight carries for 39 yards and a touchdown from the lead back.

The point stood, though. The offense was not ready then or in November.

Driving away from this past Saturday’s Blue-Gold Game, the thought bouncing around my pickup’s two-seat cab was simple: This offense is unlikely to reach its ceiling, but if it did, it would be really, absurdly high-powered.

This time, that assessment offers some deference to first-year defensive coordinator Clark Lea’s ability to turn nine returning starters into another strong defense, perhaps superior to last year’s.

The praise of the offense must be hedged thanks to IF after IF after IF after IF. If senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush displays those mechanics and that accuracy against opposing defenses …
If senior running back Dexter Williams (pictured above) decides it is worthwhile to play, and play well, through pain …
If junior receiver Chase Claypool maintains the necessary emotional equilibrium …
If senior tight end Alizé Mack offers a consistent performance, even if not stellar, but stable …

In those four upperclassmen alone, the Irish have unique talents whom opposing defensive coordinators should lose sleep thinking about. They will determine how high this offense’s ceiling is, while the likes of senior receiver Miles Boykin, junior running back Tony Jones and sophomore tight end Cole Kmet will set the floor, along with what looks to be yet another overpowering offensive line (with Kraemer at right guard).

Obviously, the most-promising players always set the height of a vaulted the ceiling. As they perform against Michigan, Stanford and Virginia Tech will determine how the season ends. However, to pinpoint four like this is an extreme end of the spectrum.

Exiting last year’s Blue-Gold Game, it was clear Wimbush needed to learn much more of offensive coordinator Chip Long’s scheme. Aside from that, the only possible ways to increase the offense’s potency was to teach receiver Kevin Stepherson self-discipline and figure out why Mack could not make a gameday impact. The rest was essentially known, even if the running game’s potential was overlooked after the spring exhibition.

Entering this summer, the gap between the offense’s floor and its ceiling is a vast one. To have four question marks of this magnitude speaks to the possible volatility awaiting in the fall. Logically speaking, it is most likely two of the four above IFs become realities. In that case, it will be a good offense, but not the utterly threatening one conceivable. The odds are slim all four come to fruition, but crazier things have happened, especially when discussing the rapid development of 18- to 21-year-olds.

Without Adams following two All-American offensive linemen, this rendition of the Notre Dame offense may take a step backward, but the talent is there for it to actually improve, to carry the day if/when an experienced quarterback picks apart the defense (see: the Seminoles’ Deondre Francois).

That could not be said in 2017.

OTHER QUICK TAKEAWAYS FROM THE BLUE-GOLD GAME:
Much of this will be discussed in greater length in the coming two weeks, but …
— The interior of the offensive line — fifth-year left guard Alex Bars, fifth-year center Sam Mustipher and Kraemer at right guard — is quite a physically-imposing trio. Some defensive ends may find success against first-year starter and junior left tackle Liam Eichenberg, especially early in the season, but the inside trio should at least create massive holes for the Irish running game.

— Ideally Long can deploy Mack and Kmet together, but the spring performance of the latter certainly eases the concerns about the maturation and consistency of the former.

Notre Dame may need an unexpected influx of production from senior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery if the fifth-year tackle he is intended to line up alongside, Jonathan Bonner, does not recover fully from a wrist injury suffered in the beginning of 2017. (Robert Franklin/South Bend Tribune via AP)

— Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly insists fifth-year defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner’s fitness will not be overly-effected by the wrist injury that kept him out of most of spring practice and all of the Blue-Gold Game.

“He’s been doing everything (in weight-lifting) but at lighter weight, and now he’s only a couple of weeks away from being full-go,” Kelly said Saturday. “He was already physically really gifted, so we don’t think that’s going to be a big curve for him, and he’ll be able to start training aggressively when we get back here in June.”

Consider this scribe skeptical. Not only is Kelly often overly-optimistic about injury effects and timetables, but to think missing six months of strength and conditioning will not be noticeable along the defensive interior is idealistic at best. Bonner’s 2017 emergence was a direct result of the arrival of strength and conditioning coordinator Matt Balis.

Without more of that work, the Irish will need to turn to sophomore Kurt Hinish for an increase in snaps, perhaps pushing toward 50 per game with Bonner offering 20-30 and senior Micah Dew-Treadway filling in the balance. Hinish appears to be up to the task, which is necessary, because classmate Darnell Ewell is not.

Notre Dame gains commitments of four-star defensive end and three-star offensive tackle

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At this rate, Notre Dame might fill its 2019 recruiting class by the time the school year ends. With a Sunday morning commitment of a consensus four-star defensive end followed by a Monday evening pledge from a consensus three-star offensive tackle, the Irish class has grown from three recruits to seven in just four days.

The No. 238 prospect in the country and No. 28 at defensive end, per rivals.com, Howard Cross III (St. Joseph High School; Montvale, N.J.) announced his commitment via Twitter shortly after leaving campus from a visit for the Blue-Gold Game, choosing the Irish over offers from Michigan, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech, among others.

“I could tell [current Notre Dame players] really loved the school,” Cross said to Blue & Gold Illustrated. “It was really, really big to talk to them. When I was going to all the colleges, that was the main thing I wanted to do. I wanted to get the perspective of the players.”

Cross joins consensus four-star defensive end Hunter Spears (Sachse H.S.; Texas) as half of the four defensive linemen already in the Irish recruiting class. As always, no collegiate defensive line can be deep enough. Considering the previous two recruiting classes have yielded a total of two defensive ends — Kofi Wardlow and Justin Ademilola — opportunity should be aplenty for Cross and Spears early in their careers.

The defensive end duo will likely spend a not-insignificant portion of their collegiate career practices butting heads with Andrew Kristofic (Pine-Richland; Gibsonia, Pa.). If the high school of Pine-Richland jumps off the figurative page to Notre Dame recruitniks, that is because Kristofic has much experience protecting high school teammate and incoming Irish freshman quarterback Phil Jurkovec.

He chose Notre Dame, and new offensive line coach Jeff Quinn, rather than offers from a lengthy list including Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State.

“The combination that their school is able to provide being one of the very best schools in the entire country academically and one of the very athletically stands out,” Kristofic said to Blue & Gold Illustrated. “I think they have the best combination of those two things on top of being a school that is known for being able to produce such great offensive linemen is something that no other schools really have the combination of all those.

“When you can put together all the things that they can there, it’s certainly not something you can overlook or take for granted.”

The beginning of this influx of commitments came with the Friday decision of consensus four-star offensive tackle John Olmstead (St. Joseph; Metuchen, N.J.), the only other offensive lineman in the class to this point. Of the seven recruits committed to the Irish, five are four-star talents.

Former Notre Dame defensive lineman, Kona Schwenke, dies at 25

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Former Notre Dame defensive lineman Kona Schwenke, 25, reportedly died in his sleep Sunday morning. The cause of death has not yet been confirmed.

Schwenke spent four seasons along the Irish defensive front, culminating in a 23-tackle senior season, in 2013. Attrition along the defensive line in his first two seasons forced Schwenke into playing time, costing him a likely fifth-year with much greater production. He played in 31 games total, making 30 tackles.

Part of a Hawaiian surge in Notre Dame recruiting, Schwenke joined the likes of receiver Robby Toma and linebacker Manti Te’o in coming from the island in 2009 and 2010. The first two committed during Charlie Weis’ tenure, but Schwenke made the leap at the very beginning of Irish head coach Brian Kelly’s career, one of the first recruits to commit to Kelly at Notre Dame. Since then, sophomore defensive tackle Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa has renewed the trend.

Schwenke graduated in 2014 with a degree in anthropology. He then signed with the practice squad of the Kansas City Chiefs, moving around four different NFL franchises chasing his dream. Earlier this month he took part in a scouting event, The Spring League, gaining some notice when he forced Heisman-winning quarterback Johnny Manziel into a fumble.

Former Irish teammates took to social media Sunday afternoon celebrating Schwenke’s life and friendship.