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Friday at 4: Human nature and opponents’ momentum

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Speculating about past seasons is a fruitless exercise, but it can be used to underscore valid points moving forward.

This week, Irish coach Brian Kelly looked back to the beginning of 2016, noting the difference in team-wide demeanors between that group and the current roster.

“I knew [last year] that we needed to get off to a good start,” Kelly said. “We needed confidence, and that’s not the case with this group. They just need to go play.”

Kelly’s point is a valid one and one implicit with human nature. When things go bad, we start to expect more things to follow suit. After Notre Dame lost in double overtime to Texas, it endured two more one-possession losses in the next three games. Suddenly, the Irish were three bounces away from being 4-0 heading into a two-week stretch of North Carolina State and Stanford. The shortcomings built upon themselves from there.

Looking at this season, Notre Dame’s schedule opens in a much more favorable manner. The second week does feature a stout challenge in Georgia, but aside from that, the first six weeks should see the Irish as distinct favorites. Even against the Bulldogs, Notre Dame will be favored, though by only three or four points. Such an opening stretch could change the dynamics leading into the USC tilt Oct. 21.

“If this team opens up 6-0 like I think they will, they’ll be playing with a lot more confidence level as the season goes on,” ESPN analyst Phil Steele said earlier this summer. “They’ll go on the field expecting to win.”

If granting this overall premise, it should apply to any opponents, as well. Some unexpected teams could face the Irish already flying high, believing in each and every aspect of their games, ready to continue that roll. Some high-profile foes might meet Notre Dame already expecting mistakes.

Let’s take a look at the 12 opponents’ schedules to try to spot who could be trending upward or otherwise when they take on the Irish.

Temple: Notre Dame is the Owls’ opener, so there is obviously no previous indicator applicable here. Instead, let’s note Temple will have nine days to prepare for hosting Houston on Sept. 30 immediately after playing this year’s top-projected American Athletic team, South Florida.

Georgia: The Bulldogs open the season against Appalachian State (Sept. 2, 6:15 p.m. ET). The Mountaineers did take Tennessee to overtime to open last season, so they will not be intimidated by facing an SEC team, but Georgia should be just fine, even if Appalachian State offers a scare for a few quarters.

Boston College: Rarely should a win over Wake Forest (1 p.m. ET, Sept. 9) spark belief within a program, but the Eagles establishing themselves as superior to another ACC team would be a boost for Boston College after the last few seasons.

Michigan State: The Spartans have a bye week before facing Notre Dame after opening with Bowling Green and Western Michigan (Sept. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET). Michigan State should consider itself beyond worrying about state directional schools, but the last 12 months of each of those programs says otherwise. If the Spartans have a chance at reaching 3-0 against Notre Dame, they’ll be desperate to convert it and distance themselves from these last 12 months of on- and off-field difficulties.

Miami (OH): After finishing last season hype-earningly-strong, continuing that momentum could snowball quickly. The RedHawks should be 4-0 when they arrive at Notre Dame, and 10-1 in their last 11. That would make for a dangerous team, no matter what state the Miami is from. (Opening four games: at Marshall, v. Austin Peay, v. Cincinnati, at Central Michigan.)

North Carolina: The week before facing the Irish, the Tar Heels travel to Georgia Tech (Sept. 30). Yes, North Carolina should win that game, but that is not the point to make here. Facing a triple-option attack can hamper a team the following week. Nearly every defensive practice routine will be altered to gear up for the unorthodox look. Returning to usual timing and planning can take more time than anticipated. In Kelly’s seven years at Notre Dame, the Irish have followed their game against Navy (or against Army in 2016, when the two service academies were scheduled back-to-back) with four losses. Twice more, Notre Dame has won by a single score in a game it expected to roll through easily. If the Tar Heels have similar difficulties recovering from dealing with Georgia Tech, that would be to Irish benefit.

USC: Notre Dame may not face the Trojans until mid-October, but right now attention will be directed toward an early September game. USC hosts Stanford in week two. No matter how highly-touted USC is or how this year may be only a good year for the Cardinal, a loss then (Sept. 9, 8:30 p.m. ET) could shake USC’s title hopes before they genuinely begin. With Stanford, ruling out that possibility seems foolish.

North Carolina State: The Wolfpack has a bye week before facing Notre Dame, so it will be fresh, if nothing else. State could also be an increasingly-popular playoff pick by then. Already a dark horse for a big season, the Wolfpack could leave Florida State (Sept. 23) with a victory in late September, drawing notice and increasing the hype train’s speed. A win there, as well as against Louisville two weeks later (Thursday, Oct. 5, 8 p.m. ET), could bring a rested, 7-0 North Carolina State to Notre Dame.

Wake Forest: It is hard to pick a game to shift what will likely be a lackluster season. A win over Louisville (Oct. 28) the week before traveling to Notre Dame would at least instill some short-term confidence in the Deacons.

Miami: Much like North Carolina State, an early-season victory over Florida State (Sept. 16, 8 p.m. ET) would boost Miami’s entire season. Closer to the Notre Dame game, though, the Hurricanes host Virginia Tech (Nov. 4) the week immediately prior. A win over the Seminoles would jumpstart the entire season. A loss then but a victory over Tech would return the Hurricanes to the New Year’s conversation.

Navy: This may sound unlike the Midshipmen, but it seems possible Navy could actually get caught looking past Notre Dame, with a trip to Houston coming six days later, then a possible American Athletic Conference title game appearance followed by the annual tilt against Army.

Stanford: A trip to Australia to face Rice (Aug. 26, 10 p.m. ET) could kill any Stanford momentum before the season starts for most of the country. Suffice it to say that is improbable (the Cardinal are favored by more than 30), but do not forget to factor in body clocks and such. Then, as already mentioned, Stanford faces USC (Sept. 9, 8:30 p.m. ET), but the late-season tilt to watch would be a Friday night matchup with Washington (Nov. 10, 10:30 p.m. ET). A Cardinal win there could throw the Pac-12 race into chaos and return — if necessary — Stanford to the New Year’s conversation.

In a season of such small sample size as college football, each week should be considered its own entity, but human nature renders that a flawed approach, and it is actually even more off-base than that since the competitors at hand are 18- to 23-years-old.

Speaking of 21- and 22-year-olds, they should listen to Knute Rockne.

You, however, might not want to.

Kevin Stepherson, three others no longer on Notre Dame roster

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Irish head coach Brian Kelly and Notre Dame parted ways with four underclassmen Tuesday, in a move only partially-expected. Sophomore receiver Kevin Stepherson, sophomore running back Deon McIntosh, freshman running back C.J. Holmes and junior defensive tackle Brandon Tiassum are no longer part of the team, a University spokesperson confirmed.

Pete Sampson of Irish Illustrated first reported the dismissals. The spring semester began Tuesday.

Stepherson’s departure, at least, was widely-expected after a December weekend of bad decisions brought his count of mishaps to four during his brief Irish career and induced an indefinite suspension. The lesser of those transgressions came with Holmes at his side, as the duo was charged with shoplifting from a nearby mall. Stepherson was also charged with possession of marijuana, speeding and driving without a valid license. Back in August of 2016, he was one of five players charged with marijuana possession, though no suspension came from that issue.

Following the shoplifting incident but before the additional Stepherson charges had come to light, Kelly expressed distinct disappointment in the choice made on a Friday night.

“You can’t steal, and they did,” he said. “I can tolerate a lot of things, but I can’t tolerate stealing. That’s why they’re suspended indefinitely and they put themselves in jeopardy.”

Kelly said he did hope to keep the players, specifically Stepherson, eligible so if they were removed from the team a transfer may be in their futures.

“If I wasn’t to have him back in the football program we want him to maintain his eligibility here so he can transfer to another program,” Kelly said.

Sophomore Deon McIntosh provided crucial depth for Notre Dame as ankle sprains limited juniors Josh Adams and Dexter Williams and sophomore Tony Jones. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

McIntosh was sent home from Orlando during Citrus Bowl preparations due to a violation of team rules. Tiassum’s exit will be a question for the time being, with no public knowledge of any issues.

While long-presumed, the loss of Stepherson still bears the most notice. When engaged, he was Notre Dame’s most explosive receiver, finishing 2017 with 359 yards and five touchdowns on 19 catches in only eight games, with genuine offensive involvement in only six. He caught 25 passes for 462 yards and five scores in his freshman season.

Cutting ties with both McIntosh and Holmes comes as a bit more of a surprise and will cut deep into the Irish running back depth. As ankle injuries limited the running game mainstays, McIntosh provided a reserve option, finishing the year with 368 yards and five touchdowns on 65 carries, a 5.7 yards per rush average. Holmes was activated to further counteract the injury concerns. If McIntosh were banged up, Notre Dame theoretically had one more option. He finished with eight carries for 32 yards.

Without the two backups, the Irish have only three running backs currently on the roster in junior Dexter Williams, sophomore Tony Jones and early-enrolled Jahmir Smith. Williams and Jones were likely to remain the top two on the depth chart, mitigating McIntosh and Holmes again, but the depth is always crucial at running back, as 2017 certainly proved.

Tiassum was unlikely to see much playing time in the future thanks to the returns of junior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and senior defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner announced Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Tiassum made two tackles in 2017.

Bonner’s decision to return brought the Irish roster up to 87 players with three spots open in the current recruiting cycle. Obviously, this development drops that number to 83. The NCAA maximum allowed come fall is 85.

Notre Dame returns entire defensive line with DT Bonner’s fifth-year decision

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Notre Dame’s defensive line will return intact in 2018. Irish head coach Brian Kelly confirmed senior defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner has changed his mind and will return for a fifth season Tuesday.

ND Insider’s Eric Hansen first reported Bonner’s shift.

In November, Bonner told Notre Dame’s independent student newspaper, The Observer, he did not intend to take a fifth year. Bonner later announced his mother had been diagnosed with cancer, lending some context to his decision to cut short his football career.

Apparently some combination of the decisions to return from junior linebacker Te’von Coney and junior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery, the 2018 defense’s potential and whatever other factors led Bonner to make a last-minute return to school. First-time defensive coordinator Clark Lea is certainly grateful.

Bonner provided consistent production in the defensive interior in 2017, finishing the season with 30 tackles, 3.5 for loss with two sacks. In his first three years with the Irish, Bonner hardly broke into the rotation. Suddenly, he was a force at the point of attack and held his own no matter the opponent.

Building upon that moving forward seems likely considering Bonner will not need to shoulder as much of the load. Freshmen Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa will have a greater role with another year under his belt, not to mention freshmen Kurt Hinish and Darnell Ewell. An increased rotation will benefit all involved.

At this point, the only contributing defensive lineman lost from 2017 will be end Andrew Trumbetti, out of eligibility. He split time with classmate Jay Hayes, so it can be argued the entire starting defensive line returns. A year ago, that unit was seen as a weakness, but it established itself as a strength as the season went on.

Bonner’s addition brings the running count on Notre Dame’s roster to 87 players, not counting three more possible commits in the incoming freshman class. The NCAA maximum is 85.

Seven early enrollees set a new Notre Dame high, but will they make an impact?

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Notre Dame does not lean on high school seniors to enroll a semester early, yet seven did so this year, a program high. By no means does the head-start guarantee an immediate impact. As discussed in Monday’s Leftovers, only four of the 14 early enrollees in the last three years made notable contributions their freshmen seasons.

Such a return indicates at least one of these seven will make an impact in 2018, and quite possibly two of them. In an attempt to predict that, the seven are listed below in order of likelihood of altering a game this year, dictated by positional need creating opportunities more than anything else.

As will be the case all offseason, when speaking of depth chart holes, one position stands out as the most needing rapid improvement, safety.

Consensus four-star defensive back Houston Griffith
Griffith may end up a cornerback, but the Irish are well-stocked there at the moment. His first chance to contribute will come at safety, something Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly did not rule out when Griffith (and the rest of these) signed in December.

For that matter, coverage duties can lead to a freshman missing a step. Playing the catch-all role of boundary safety may better suit an athlete like Griffith.

And, again, the Irish need safeties.

Consensus four-star linebacker Jack Lamb
Notre Dame also needs linebacker depth, even with junior Te’von Coney opting to return for his senior year. The reserves on the roster in 2017 did not inspire much faith moving forward. That could change, but Lamb seems just as likely to jump into the second-string of the depth chart.

Lamb may not yet be ready for much in the way of coverage duties, but he already has the physique to hold up in a physical matchup, and the early arrival will only further that cause. With a deep recruiting class at the position — including three early enrollees — defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Clark Lea will have options to test out. Lamb simply seems the most likely to emerge as the leader of the inexperienced majority at linebacker.

Bo Bauer (rivals.com)

Rivals.com four-star linebacker Matthew “Bo” Bauer
If it is not Lamb who earns playing time spelling Coney, it could be Bauer. Like Lamb, Bauer fits best against the run.

This early emphasis on linebackers is a reflection of the distinct need for depth. Current sophomores Jonathan and Jamir Jones (no relation) have not claimed a primary role for themselves, and the recruiting emphasis at the position this cycle points to a general letdown with freshmen David Adams and Drew White.

Someone in the mix will need to step forward. By enrolling early, Lamb and Bauer have given themselves a bit more time to make that impression.

 

Micah Jones (rivals.com)

Rivals.com four-star receiver Micah Jones
The need at receiver is much less; though unproven, there are options. Nonetheless, that uncertainty creates an opportunity for Jones’ big frame. Offensive coordinator Chip Long has already shown a preference for big bodies at receiver, so that alone should play in the 6-foot-5 Jones’ favor.

This past spring, Long toyed with the idea of Equanimeous St. Brown, Chase Claypool and Miles Boykin as his starting receivers. Those latter two are still around. Even if Jones does not create another towering trio, he could backup either Claypool or, more likely, Boykin without creating much of a change for a quarterback’s reads.

This spring will give Jones time to learn the playbook and develop the needed consistency for that possibility. In a receiving corps proven to be inconsistent this past season, any version of reliability may be enough for Jones to break through.

Consensus three-star running back Jahmir Smith
Irish recruiting director and special teams coordinator Brian Polian raved about Smith in December. Every word Polian said may have been warranted, but it will still be difficult to crack the presumed trio of sophomore Tony Jones, junior Dexter Williams and freshman C.J. Holmes. They will take up the carries, no matter how aggressively Long splits the duties.

Kelly did note he would not hold back a running back simply because he is a freshman. If the back is ready, cut him loose. It is unlikely a productive back would stay for a fifth year, anyway. (See: Adams, Josh.) However, Jones preserved a year of eligibility in 2016 despite generous praise consistently offered his direction, so Kelly’s sentiment may deserve some healthy skepticism.

Consensus three-star linebacker Ovie Oghoufo
Oghoufo does not arrive as heralded as either Lamb or Bauer, or summer enrollee consensus four-star Shayne Simon, but he will have his chance this spring all the same. That is what happens when a spot needs a playmaker. One freshman will almost assuredly be needed for depth.

More likely, Oghoufo will use the added time to get some heft onto his frame. Albeit speedy, his slightness stands out when compared to the other linebacker recruits.

Rivals.com four-star tight end George Takacs
Notre Dame simply does not have a pressing need for a tight end. Recruiting Takacs was a forward-looking decision. He will be the fourth tight end this spring, with freshman Brock Wright presumably limited as he recovers from a shoulder injury. None of the three ahead, or Wright, are anything akin to slouches.

Unless injuries and/or suspensions run rampant, Takacs is a prime candidate for a season spent preserving eligibility.

RELATED READING: Kelly on the offensive signees
Kelly on the defensive signees

Notre Dame’s 2018 defense bolstered with Coney & Tillery returns

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Notre Dame’s defense found some stability last week with the promotion of linebackers coach Clark Lea to defensive coordinator and defensive line coach Mike Elston to associate head coach following Mike Elko’s abrupt departure, but only some stability.

That foundation is much more solid now after the Irish announced the returns of both junior linebacker Te’von Coney and junior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery on Monday.

Both Coney and Tillery enjoyed noticeable developmental progress in one year under Elko.  Coney totaled a whopping 116 tackles to lead Notre Dame, far and away his best season. Among those takedowns, he managed 13 for loss, including three sacks. Tillery, meanwhile, led the Irish with 4.5 sacks this season, adding another 4.5 tackles for loss and a forced fumble.

Notre Dame’s defensive tackle situation may have bordered on dire if not for the return of junior Jerry Tillery. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

With Lea and Elston sticking around, Coney and Tillery are well-positioned for even further growth. If nothing else, they will step into starring roles in a rather complete front seven.

Notre Dame loses senior linebackers Nyles Morgan and Greer Martini, as well as senior defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner and senior defensive end Andrew Trumbetti. If Coney and Tillery had joined that group, the front seven would have been rife with unproven commodities and little depth. Instead, Coney will fill in at linebacker, meaning only one youngster will need to step forward, and Tillery will headline a defensive line surging under Elston.

After amassing 17 tackles in the Citrus Bowl victory over LSU, Coney insisted he had not yet put much consideration into his future.

“I’m just right now still focused on the win,” he said. “We just got this 10th win. I’m just trying to soak up the moment. This is a great moment. … Focusing on that and the win and enjoying it with my brothers.”

Those words combined with Elko’s sudden departure for Texas A&M made Coney’s return seem unlikely. His breakout season at least placed him into NFL draft conversations and capitalizing on that chance would have made a good amount of logical sense.

With Lea in his ear for another season, Coney will have a chance to become more than a physical player excelling in run defense and develop his coverage skills. Coney and senior Drue Tranquill will lead an otherwise lacking linebacker corps.

Sophomores Jonathan and Jamir Jones (no relation) made 10 and four tackles, respectively, this year. Jonathan saw more playing time on defense, occasionally spelling senior Nyles Morgan, but has not yet looked the part of an every-down contributor. Irish coach Brian Kelly has previously admitted to considering a move to defensive line for Jamir, but that unit’s progression made that position shift less of a necessity.

If any of the incoming four linebackers or the two current freshmen, David Adams or Drew White, were to emerge, however, such a move may become an available luxury. Only Tillery’s return makes it a genuine luxury, though.

Tillery’s 56 tackles this year showed a level of consistency not seen in his first two seasons. His length alone makes Tillery an intriguing draft prospect. Logically speaking, a second season of such production, if not even increased output, should further his professional hopes. By returning along with Elston, the player/coach combination will provide experience to a position group otherwise devoid of it. With Bonner having said he will not return, Tillery and current freshmen Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa and Kurt Hinish are the only returning defensive tackles of contributory note.

Freshman Darnell Ewell will also certainly enter the rotation after spending 2017 preserving a year of eligibility. Juniors Micah Dew-Treadway and Brandon Tiassum will be in the mix, as well. Incoming freshmen consensus four-star defensive tackle Jayson Ademiloloa (St. Peter’s Prep; Jersey City, N.J.) and consensus three-star defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin (North Caroline High School; Ridgely, Md.) will complete the fray.

Reports on Monday indicate junior Elijah Taylor will leave Notre Dame after missing 2017 with a LisFranc fracture suffered in spring practice. He appeared in four games in 2016, making four tackles including one for loss. More than anything else, his departure is a step toward reaching the NCAA maximum of 85 rostered players. With Coney and Tillery returning but Taylor departing, the Irish roster currently stands at 86 players, though a few more recruits may be added. (This does not count sophomore receiver Kevin Stepherson, indefinitely suspended and presumed not likely to play for Notre Dame in 2018.)