Associated Press

Notre Dame’s Opponents: Georgia & N.C. St. surge; Boston College & UNC fade

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Going 8-3 last week, Notre Dame’s opponents are expected to do just that again this coming week. (Those numbers do not count either the immediately prior or the imminently coming Irish games.)

Temple (2-2): South Florida finally looked like the team the preseason expected, routing the Owls 43-7 on Thursday. It is distinctly possible the Bulls are just that good, but they had not yet shown it this year. They held Temple to a total of 85 yards, including negative-four rushing yards, and Owls junior quarterback Logan Marchi went from not throwing an interception in his first three games as a starter to throwing four against South Florida.

Life does not get easier for Temple, now hosting Houston at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Owls are two-touchdown underdogs with a point total over/under of 47.5, making for a projection of 31-17.

Georgia (4-0): A 31-3 victory over No. 17 Mississippi State puts the Bulldogs in position to cruise to the SEC title game. Admittedly, Mississippi State is not in the SEC East, but the rout established Georgia as the only genuine team in the division. Furthermore, the Bulldogs held Mississippi State to 103 passing yards.

Georgia showcased a balanced offense, taking 42 rushing attempts for 203 yards and throwing 12 passes for 201 yards.

This week, the Bulldogs head to Tennessee for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS. The spread favors Georgia by a touchdown with an over/under of 47.5, making for a theoretical 27-20 conclusion. As tensions flare in Knoxville, that one-possession score seems slim.

Boston College (1-3): For the second consecutive week, the Eagles played a superior opponent even for the majority of the game before getting blown out. Boston College entered the fourth quarter at Clemson tied at seven. Then, the Tigers mimicked the Irish from a week ago, using big plays to spark quite a rout. Three touchdowns in the final six minutes put the Eagles away 34-7.

In many respects, Boston College played Clemson grittily, but the Eagles were outgained 482 yards to 238 and the time of possession favored the Tigers 34:56 to 25:04.

Boston College has a chance at its first win since the season opener in hosting Central Michigan this weekend at 1 p.m. on the ACC Network. The Eagles are favored by nine points with an over/under of 49, indicating a 29-20 final.

Michigan State (2-1): After the 38-18 loss to Notre Dame, the Spartans host Iowa at 4 p.m. ET on Fox on Saturday. Despite the Hawkeyes’ excellent performance against Penn State in primetime, Michigan State is favored by 3.5 with an over/under of 45. Quick math points to a 24-21 result. Based solely on Iowa’s showing against the Nittany Lions, perhaps that spread should point the other direction.

Miami (OH) (2-2): Senior quarterback Gus Ragland led the RedHawks to a 31-14 victory at Central Michigan, completing 11 of 19 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns.

Ragland will need to be at his finest to overcome a 22.5-point spread against the Irish at 5 p.m. ET on NBCSN. The 53.5 over/under leads one to surmise a 38-16 final.

North Carolina (1-3): The season continues to get away from the Tar Heels. Losing 27-17 at home against rival Duke will only further frustrations, especially considering North Carolina entered the fourth quarter with a 17-13 lead. The Tar Heels converted only three of 16 third downs and averaged a mere 3.6 yards on 33 rushes.

Heading to Georgia Tech, North Carolina is a 9.5-point underdog with a hefty over/under of 60. The 12 p.m. matchup on ESPN2 could end with such a scoreboard appearance as 35-25 in favor of the option-dependent team.

USC (4-0): Much like Notre Dame’s win over Michigan State, turnovers were the key in the Trojans’ 30-20 win at Cal. USC forced six turnovers, otherwise outgaining the Golden Bears by only 60 yards, 416 to 356.

The game stood tied entering the fourth quarter before the Trojans relied on a strip sack to set up a two-play, four-yard touchdown drive to take a decisive 23-13 lead. Despite the close nature up until that point, Cal attempted 52 passes.

USC now faces the stiffest challenge of its season to date. No. 16 Washington State awaits on Friday for a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN. The Trojans are four-point favorites for the end of the short week with an over/under of 64.5. Do not be surprised at all if the Cougars win outright, let alone fare better than a theoretical 34-30 conclusion.

North Carolina State’s Jaylen Samuels celebrates as he scores against Florida State on Saturday. (AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)

North Carolina State (3-1): The Wolfpack earned its third straight win. More than that, North Carolina State notched its biggest win of the year, a 27-21 victory at Florida State. The Wolfpack benefited from 11 Seminoles penalties and a turnover, but overall North Carolina State just played a solid game.

To keep that momentum going, the Wolfpack will host Syracuse at 12:20 p.m. ET on the ACC Network. North Carolina State will not need to win by two touchdowns, but a bookmaker’s spread expects the margin to tilt toward the Wolfpack by about 13.5 points with an over/under of 63. Expecting the Orange to score 24 points to fulfill a 38-24 result seems ambitious, and North Carolina State is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Seems like 63 is a larger number than may be appropriate.

Wake Forest celebrates its game-saving field goal block at Appalachian State on Saturday. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Wake Forest (4-0): The Demon Deacons needed to block a 39-yard field goal with five seconds remaining to win 20-19 at Appalachian State, but a win is a win is a [insert four-beat pause] win. Frankly, the Mountaineers played better. They outgained Wake Forest by 150 yards and possessed the ball by a wide margin of 35:44 to 24:16.

The Deacons can get back to better football by continuing what North Carolina State started. Florida State visits Winston-Salem at 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC) and is favored by 7.5 points with an over/under of 46.5 points. This all may be odd considering Wake Forest is undefeated and the Seminoles have yet to find a win, but such is the case with preseason expectations and college football. If the book holds, Florida State would win 27-20.

The Deacons may be a trendy pick for an upset this week, but it just seems too obvious.

Miami (FL) (2-0): The Hurricanes overcame a 16-10 halftime deficit against Toledo to win 52-30, even though Miami went only 3-for-9 on third downs. As concerning as a 33 percent third down conversion rate may be, having to attempt only nine third downs speaks to an overall offensive efficiency, further emphasized by 254 rushing yards. The Hurricanes defense allowed only 81 rushes on 35 carries.

The next question will be what are Miami’s ACC intentions? Can they fare better than North Carolina? The Hurricanes travel to Duke on Friday for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN, favored by six points with a 57-point over/under. Miami would undoubtedly be okay with a  31-26 victory.

Navy (3-0): The Midshipmen jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Cincinnati and never looked back en route to a 42-32 victory. Navy rushed for 569 yards, as Navy will do, while giving up only 58 yards on the ground on 23 attempts.

Navy now heads to Tulsa to feature that running game on ESPNU at 3:30 p.m. ET. Favored by 5.5 points, the Midshipmen could be looking at the topside of a 38-33 shootout.

Stanford (2-2): Get used to hearing about Cardinal junior running back Bryce Love in this space. It is going to happen all fall. It will probably continue into the fall of 2018.

Bryce Love cannot actually fly. It just sometimes seems like he can. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Love took 30 carries for 263 yards and a touchdown to lead Stanford to a 58-34 win over UCLA. It really was Love leading the way after junior quarterback Keller Chryst was injured in the first quarter. Sophomore K.J. Costello replaced him, completing 13 of 19 passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns.

The Cardinal host Arizona State at 4 p.m. ET on the Pac-12 Network. Favored by 16 points with an over/under of 63.5, this theoretical 40-24 result should be finished before any #Pac12AfterDark swings into action.

Spring Outlook: Notre Dame’s linebackers, a proven two and then many questions

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Any concerns about Notre Dame’s linebackers were allayed when Te’von Coney spurned the NFL to return for his senior season. That decision, and Drue Tranquill making the same move, means the Irish do not need to replace their two best playmakers at the position from last season.

Nonetheless, defensive coordinator Clark Lea does need to figure out how to fill in for the graduated Nyles Morgan and his 92 tackles, not to mention classmate Greer Martini and his 75, good for second and fourth on the team, respectively.

Spring Roster:
— Two known and welcome playmaking veterans in Coney and fifth-year Tranquill.
— More than a handful of unproven and untested possibilities in rising senior Asmar Bilal, rising juniors Jonathan Jones and Jamir Jones (no relation), and rising sophomores Drew White, David Adams and Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah.
— A trio of early-enrolled freshmen in Jack Lamb, Bo Bauer and Ovie Oghoufo.

Summer Arrivals:
Incoming freshman Shayne Simon, a likely rover candidate.

Entering 2017, Te’von Coney was not even a starting linebacker. By the end of the season he was the leading tackler, and in 2018, he will be counted on as a defensive stalwart. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Depth Chart Possibilities:
Wherever Tranquill ends up — be it at rover or a more traditional linebacker position, with the latter seeming more likely — someone will need to earn the third starting role. Bilal is the front-runner for that duty, at either position, but he will need to show a quicker understanding of the game than he has in the past.

The rising senior has always been ready physically, but he has looked up the depth chart at the likes of Morgan, Martini, Coney and Tranquill. Opportunities were not readily available. Now that one very much is, Bilal will need to either seize it or get ready to be bypassed by the newcomers.

It would be a surprise for Lamb or Bauer to be named that third starter in their freshman season, but both could certainly land in the two-deep, as that entire second unit is up for grabs. Neither Jones showed much last season, and the linebacker recruiting emphasis of 2018 belied the coaching staffs’ opinions of the rising sophomores pretty clearly.

Presuming Bilal steps forward and secures the starting position, and some combination of Jones, Jones, Lamb and Bauer fill two of the backup roles, only Owusu-Koromoah stands out as an obvious rover substitute. In that respect, depth remains a concern at the defense’s second level, albeit less of one than in years past thanks to the influx of four touted freshmen.

Biggest Question:
Where does Tranquill line up against Michigan on Sept. 1? More to the current purpose, where does he line up in the Blue-Gold Game on April 21?

“My responsibility as linebackers coach is to put the best combination of people on the field,” Lea said Feb. 7. “I think everyone can see Drue Tranquill had a skillset, a talent base that can play multiple spots. Through the course of the winter and spring, we’ll take a look at different options.”

The duties at rover can be handled piecemeal, accounting for the tendencies of each opponent. When facing an up-tempo, aerial attack, perhaps even rising senior cornerback Shaun Crawford could be featured there. When facing a physical, ground-bound opponent, Bilal would make more sense.

Shifting around like that at the Buck linebacker spot makes far less sense. While Tranquill never necessarily had the speed to excel at safety, and two knee injuries only further limited him in that respect, he shined at rover in 2017. Concluding his collegiate career at linebacker is logical, both as it pertains to his development thus far and to his professional aspirations.

2017 Statistically Speaking:
Rarely can a defense lose two of its top-four tacklers and still return more than 200 tackles from starting linebackers. Thus is the luxury provided by both Coney and Tranquill bypassing the NFL for another year.

Coney: 116 tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss including three sacks, and one forced fumble which he recovered.
Tranquill: 85 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss including 1.5 sacks, one interception, three pass breakups, three fumbles recovered and one fumble forced.
Bilal: 18 tackles with 1.5 for loss.
Jo. Jones: 10 tackles with one for loss and one pass breakup.
Ja. Jones: Four tackles.

A 2018 Statistical Thought:
Presuming linebacker health, the three starters should end up as Notre Dame’s leading tacklers once again in 2018, even with the presumed drop off from Morgan to insert Bilal or Owusu-Koromoah or Lamb or … here.

The Irish defensive line will be much improved in 2018. Once upon a time, that seemed a guarantee just because the expectations for the line entering 2017 were so low, but it instead became a strength. Developing that strength and making it the backbone of Notre Dame’s defense moving forward will serve to burgeon the linebackers’ tackle totals, both at and behind the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame gets the letter: Jack Lamb
Notre Dame gets the letter: Bo Bauer
Notre Dame gets the letter: Shayne Simon
Notre Dame gets the letter: Ovie Oghoufo

Spring Outlook: Notre Dame’s running backs, as few of them as there are

A second four-star defensive lineman, Hunter Spears, joins the Notre Dame class of 2019

rivals.com
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When Notre Dame got five heralded defensive line recruits on campus together in January, it turned heads. When Irish defensive line coach Mike Elston offered public optimism about the possible 2019 commitments, it raised expectations.

Notre Dame has now secured a second of those five with the Tuesday commitment of consensus four-star defensive end Hunter Spears (Sachse High School; Texas). He joins consensus four-star defensive tackle Jacob Lacey (South Warren H.S.; Bowling Green, Ky.) as the early foundation to the recruiting class, now with four prospects pledged.

“Honestly, just talking with the guys today — Jacob Lacey, Mazi Smith, Joseph Anderson, Nana Osafo-Mensah, and myself — if Notre Came can land all of us, that would be the dream d-line class for Notre Dame,” Spears told Irish Illustrated. “I could see another pass-rusher or two, also.”

The other three names Spears mentioned all joined Lacey and him on Jan. 27 at an on-campus Junior Day. All five qualify as consensus four-stars, with Smith (East Kentwood; Kentwood, Mich.) a tackle, Anderson (Siegel; Murfreesboro, Tenn.) an end, and Osafo-Mensah (Nolan Catholic; Fort Worth, Texas) a possible end/linebacker hybrid.

From left to right: Osafo-Mensah, Anderson, Elston, Smith, Lacey and Spears. (Twitter: @JacobLacey6)

Landing all five may be ambitious, but it would also be the envy of most of the country.

Spears already held offers from the likes of Alabama and Michigan State, despite missing his junior season with a knee injury. The Irish extended a scholarship offer to him in June, prompting an unofficial visit to watch a 49-14 Notre Dame victory over USC in October. In a video released by 247Sports.com, Spears cited that experience as one of the three primary reasons he committed, along with the educational opportunity and the “overall tradition and culture.”

Spears shows quickness for a defensive lineman, but not such that he would ever be considered an outside linebacker in any form. His size makes him an ideal candidate to set the edge against the run or possibly move inside when the Irish need a quicker defensive line to handle certain opponents. His agility, though, will make him a three-down threat, both a pass-rusher and an edge-setter.

Notre Dame currently has depth at defensive end, but with only one signed in the class of 2018 (Justin Ademilola) and one remaining from the class of 2017 (Kofi Wardlow), an influx will be a priority this recruiting cycle. Spears will theoretically have one season to adjust to collegiate competition before the quartet of rising juniors Daelin Hayes, Khalid Kareem, Julian Okwara and Ade Ogundeji run out of eligibility. (The first three have two seasons remaining, while Ogundeji has the possibility of three more years.)

Hence, that Junior Day emphasis and Elston’s confidence on National Signing Day.

“I’ve been at Notre Dame now going on for nine years, and I haven’t had a stronger group of underclassmen that I’m recruiting than I have this year in 2019,” Elston said. “This could be the best defensive line haul we’ve ever had here.”

Expect to read that quote again and again (and possibly again) if any of the remaining three in the above photo follow Spears’ and Lacey’s lead.

RELATED READING: ‘Accelerated’ start creates bright outlook for Notre Dame’s 2019 recruiting cycle

Spring Outlook: Notre Dame’s running backs, as few of them as there are

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Notre Dame will open spring practice in about two weeks. As always, the proceedings will be filled with positive reviews, optimistic outlooks, and an injury or two.

A quick look at each position group should lend a better understanding to those perspectives and effects, beginning with the group lacking many questions — the running backs. The biggest reason there is relative certainty around the running backs is there are just so few of them following the winter dismissals of rising junior Deon McIntosh and rising sophomore C.J. Holmes.

Spring Roster:
Rising senior Dexter Williams (pictured above)
Rising junior Tony Jones
Early-enrolled freshman Jahmir Smith
Rising junior Mick Assaf

Summer Arrivals:
Incoming freshman C’Bo Flemister

No one received more praise last spring practice than Tony Jones. He had a successful 2017, but compared to that hype, it could have been considered under-performing. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Depth Chart Possibilities:
At some point, either Williams or Jones will be named the Irish starter. It is quite possible that will be a distinction without much difference, as the two could certainly complement each other well in offensive coordinator Chip Long’s system, which already prefers to use multiple running backs.

Human nature, though, dictates is more likely one back receives a majority of the carries.

Biggest Question:
If Williams lines up with the No. 1 offensive unit in the Blue-Gold Game (April 21) to conclude spring practice, that will be the first genuine and tangible evidence he has improved as a pass blocker. Despite his big-play speed and seeming-ease breaking tackles, Williams’ one-dimensional game rendered him as much a liability as an asset in 2017.

Even in the Citrus Bowl victory, Williams followed up back-to-back rushes for a combined 36 yards with a blown pass protection resulting in a 13-yard sack.

“You have to be able to protect the quarterback with all positions,” Long said Feb. 7. “That dictates a whole lot if you’re going to play a lot or just be a situational guy. It’s something you have to embrace, the physicality.

“… That’s really the main thing, other than protecting the ball, that’ll keep a back off the field in our offense.”

The best ability is availability, and both an ankle injury and a balky quad limited Williams in that respect in 2017. Little blame can be cast for the natural bruises of football. Nonetheless, he will need to “embrace the physicality” if he wants to become more than a situational back.

Otherwise, Jones will be the default option. He has already shown a knack for both pass blocking and catching, making him a three-down option. Notre Dame will always prefer that rather than tip its hand to a running play every time Williams enters the game.

2017 Statistically Speaking:
Obviously, Josh Adams carried the burden in the running game last season. Behind rising senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush and McIntosh, Williams was only the No. 4 rusher on the roster in yards and touchdowns, while Jones was No. 4 in carries and No. 5 in yards and scores.

Williams: 360 yards on 39 carries, a 9.2 average, with four touchdowns. Two catches for 13 yards and one score.
Jones: 232 yards on 44 carries, a 5.3 average, with three touchdowns. Six catches for 12 yards.
Notre Dame gets the letter: Jahmir Smith
Notre Dame gets the letter: C’Bo Flemister

Monday’s Leftovers: Geography, as much as academics, caps Notre Dame’s recruiting possibilites

Associated Press
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A year ago, Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly acknowledged a practical ceiling on Irish recruiting efforts.

“Since I’ve been here, if you look at the average rankings, we’re anywhere from 5 to 15,” Kelly said on 2017’s National Signing Day, a day on which Notre Dame secured the No. 13 class in the country, per rivals.com. “We’re going to fall somewhere in that range because there’s a line there we can’t get over based upon what our distinctions are here. That line is going to keep us between 5 and 15.

“We know where we’re going to fall. We’re going to continue to recruit the right kind of kids here.”

Sure enough, the Irish once again fall into that spectrum in 2018, finishing No. 11 per rivals. Though Notre Dame has risen above that range once (No. 3 in 2013) and fallen below it once (No. 20 in 2012) during Kelly’s tenure, his overall analysis remains accurate.

The instinct has always been to cite University academic standards as the greatest hurdle to rising into the top five consistently, but another aspect should not be overlooked. In a recent mailbag, Sports Illustrated’s Andy Staples pondered the factors keeping the Irish from becoming a perennial 10-win team.

“Another major reason is a lack of a local recruiting base,” Staples wrote. “No program has a stronger national reach than Notre Dame, but that still doesn’t make recruiting nationally easy. It’s much easier to have hundreds of quality prospects within driving distances.”

That dynamic is a part of why the Irish are better positioned to reap rewards from high school juniors now being able to take official visits in April, May and June. Those time periods are less hectic for most high schoolers, so a long-distance trip may fit into the calendar with a bit less stress. Obviously, only time will tell the true impact of that new change.

Looking at both this past year’s recruiting rankings and the last nine years of rankings underscores and supports Staples’ point.

Rivals considered 33 prospects to be five-star recruits in 2018. Only seven schools managed to sign multiple such players: Georgia (8), Clemson (6), USC (5), Alabama (3), Ohio State (3), Penn State (2), and Miami (2). To speak more broadly, four schools in the Deep South, two in the Ohio-Pennsylvania corridor and one in California, all talent-rich areas, especially compared to Indiana, Illinois and Michigan.

If combining the total signees of both four- and five-star rankings by rivals, Notre Dame signed 12 such prospects. Only 11 schools signed more, including six of the above seven. (Clemson equaled the Irish haul, though its even split between four- and five-star recruits stands out compared to Notre Dame’s 12 four-stars.) The additional five: Oklahoma, Texas, Florida State, Auburn and Florida. In other words, two schools tapping into Texas, two schools within Florida and one more in the Deep South.

If looking at the last nine years of recruiting, the span of Kelly’s time in South Bend, only eight programs have consistently out-recruited the Irish, all but one mentioned already. LSU finished with the No. 13 recruiting class in 2018, lowering its nine-year average placement to 8.0. The Tigers are one of five SEC teams in that group of eight, joining Florida State, Ohio State and USC.

Sense a theme?

It will always be hard enough for Notre Dame to find high-caliber players likely to succeed at a strong academic institution in the Midwest. That task is even harder knowing how far away those players typically are to start with.

Other programs face a similar challenge, and few handle it as well. Consider the 2018 recruiting classes of Stanford, Michigan and Michigan State, for familiar context.

Stanford finished with 4 four-stars in rivals’ No. 63 class. The Wolverines pulled in 7 four-stars as part of the No. 24 class, while the Spartans signed 5 four-stars in the No. 26 grouping.

The Blue-Chip Ratio
Finishing within Kelly’s range has not stopped Notre Dame from consistently having one of the most-talented rosters in the country. If abiding by rivals rankings for consistency, 45 of the 89 players currently on the Irish roster (including incoming freshmen) were four- or five-star recruits.

A commonly-cited metric of a roster’s talent is the so-called “Blue-Chip Ratio.” Essentially, a national championship caliber team will have at least 50 percent of its roster consisting of former four- or five-star prospects. Entering 2017, Notre Dame was one of only 10 such teams in the country.

As should be expected, the other nine included six programs from the Deep South, Ohio State, USC and, as an ode to Jim Harbaugh’s early recruiting successes, Michigan.

A Presidents Day Reminder
Notre Dame cannot officially claim any POTUS as an alum, but both Josiah Bartlet and James Marshall would like to argue otherwise.

INSIDE THE IRISH READING:
Notre Dame’s pending attrition actually intended to improve the roster
NCAA denies Notre Dame’s appeal, vacating 21 wins, including 12-0 in 2012
Notre Dame is right: The NCAA’s terrible precedent matters, but vacating wins does not
‘Accelerated’ start creates bright outlook for Notre Dame’s 2019 recruiting cycle
Notre Dame’s successful early signing period now begets early visit questions

OUTSIDE READING:
NCAA appeals committee upholds vacation of Notre Dame wins
A letter from the President on the NCAA Infractions Case
Irish set high expectations for Jurkovec
Elston ‘recruits’ Tillery, Bonner for one last ride
Giants release defensive end Ishaq Williams with a failed physical designation
Re-ranking the longest FBS coaching tenures from 1-to-230
Hip injury to keep Stanford QB K.J. Costello sidelined for much of spring drills