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Notre Dame’s Opponents: Second half of schedule continues to look even more impressive

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The back half of Notre Dame’s schedule toughened its outlook over the weekend, suffering only one loss, and that came on the road against the No. 2 team in the country. Overall, Irish foes went 8-3 (not counting Notre Dame’s win at North Carolina) and are predicted to do so again this weekend, with Wake Forest joining the Irish in taking the week off.

Temple (3-3): The Owls may be buoyed by a 34-10 win at East Carolina, led by junior quarterback Logan Marchi’s 321 yards and two touchdowns, but the score is more a commentary on the Pirates’ defense than anything else. East Carolina ranks last in the country in yards allowed per game, making Marchi’s first career 300-yard game and Temple’s 523 total yards effects rather than causes.

Marchi did cut down on his turnover tendencies. After throwing seven interceptions over the past two weeks, he threw only one in the conference victory.

The Owls may make it two in a row, favored by 9.5 points against Connecticut this weekend (12 p.m. ET, ESPNews). A combined point total over/under of 62 hints at a 36-26 conclusion.

Georgia (6-0): The Bulldogs defense stifled Vanderbilt, holding the Commodores to 64 rushing yards while the Georgia rushing attack powered the offense with 423 yards en route to a 45-14 victory.

Senior running backs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb led the way, as usual, with 288 combined yards on 28 total carries. Freshman quarterback Jake Fromm had an efficient day, as well, completing 7-of-11 passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomore quarterback Jacob Eason returned from injury during mop-up time to complete all three of his pass attempts, gaining 24 yards.

It will continue to be a breeze for the Bulldogs, now hosting Missouri (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network). Favored by a whopping 30.5 points, Georgia very well may prevail by more than a 43-13 margin.

Boston College (2-4): The Eagles continue to play the ACC’s elite close and physically, but they just cannot come out on top. Despite not turning over the ball and committing only five penalties, Boston College fell to Virginia Tech 23-10.

Another of the ACC’s best welcomes the Eagles this week, with Louisville favored by 21.5 points (12:20 p.m. ET, ACC Network). The over/under of 57 indicates an unorthodox score of 39-18. Frankly, Boston College has played everyone relatively close so far — there is no reason to think that stops now.

Michigan State (4-1): When Notre Dame routed the Spartans a few weeks ago, it looked like nothing more than an easy evening against a rebuilding opponent. Michigan State may have rewritten that narrative with its 14-10 victory at Michigan on Saturday.

The Spartans got out to a 14-3 lead at halftime, an important note as the second half was marred by a miserable rainstorm. Junior quarterback Brian Lewerke led Michigan State both through the air and on the ground, gaining 61 yards and a score on 15 carries.

The Spartans now head to Minnesota (8 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network) to risk their undefeated Big Ten record. A 4.5-point favorite in a likely low-scoring night, Michigan State should come out on the right side of a 22-18 theoretical final.

Miami (OH) (2-4): The RedHawks season took a turn for the worse this weekend. Bowling Green is a MAC doormat, yet Miami lost to them 37-29. The RedHawks looked poised to escape with a close win before fumbling on the plus seven-yard line with less than two minutes left. A Falcons defender picked up the loose ball, and 93 yards later it was an eight-point margin with only 1:21 left.

The season is not yet lost, though, and Miami can right the ship at Kent State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3). Favored by 9.5 points, the RedHawks will undoubtedly be plenty motivated this weekend. Combining the over/under with the spread leads to a 26-17 final.

North Carolina (1-5): Notre Dame knocked the Tar Heels another step down a spiral staircase. The 33-10 Irish victory will likely be a larger margin of defeat than North Carolina experiences this weekend, but even a slim loss could be crippling for the Tar Heels. Hosting Virginia (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network) just may be their last best chance at another FBS-level victory this year.

Bookmakers do not expect them to manage that. North Carolina is a four-point home underdog against a lower-level ACC opponent. That should give a very clear idea of how far this season might sink. A 55.5-point over/under makes for a 30-25 ending.

USC (5-1): The Trojans cruised past Oregon State 38-10 in Beavers’ head coach Gary Andersen’s final game before resigning. USC junior quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns on 23-of-35 passing.

This week will be much tougher on the Trojans. They host Utah (8 p.m. ET, ABC), likely the toughest competition for the Pac 12 South Division title. USC should not have too much trouble, favored by 13 points with a 54.5-point over/under, rounding to a 34-20 result.

North Carolina State (5-1): The Wolfpack has definitively arrived, topping Louisville 39-25 on Thursday to add a second victory over the ACC’s top teams, only awaiting a Nov. 4 matchup vs. Clemson.

North Carolina State gained 520 total yards and averaged 11.5 yards per pass attempt. For a team led by its defense, the offensive explosion was quite noticeable. Junior quarterback Ryan Finley led the way, completing 20-of-31 passes for 367 yards, connecting with three different receivers for at least 99 yards.

The momentum should continue at Pittsburgh (12 p.m. ET, ACC Network), where the Wolfpack is favored by a likely-too-slim 12 points with an over/under of 56. A 34-22 final sounds both too close and too generous for the Panthers.

Wake Forest (4-2): The Demon Deacons could not recover from going down 14-0 in the first quarter to Clemson, eventually falling behind 28-0 before closing the gap to 28-14. The Tigers clearly controlled the contest throughout, holding the time of possession edge 35:05 to 24:55 and rushing for 190 yards on a whopping 48 carries.

Florida State may be struggling this year, but by beating the Seminoles, Miami and quarterback Malik Rosier cleared most of their path to an undefeated ACC regular season. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

Miami (FL) (4-0): The good news: The Hurricanes beat Florida State 24-20 thanks to a 23-yard touchdown pass from junior quarterback Malik Rosier with only six seconds left.

The obvious news: This may be a down year for the Seminoles, somewhat devaluing the win.

The forward-looking news: Miami has only one genuine ACC challenge left, Nov. 4 vs. Virginia Tech, meaning an undefeated conference slate and a regular season as a whole are both distinct possibilities.

The bad news: The Hurricanes lost leading running back Mark Walton for the season due to an injury.

They will look to first adjust to Walton’s absence against Georgia Tech this weekend (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Favored by just less than a touchdown, Miami will need to handle the triple-option to come out ahead in a supposed 29-23 contest.

Navy (5-0): For the second consecutive week, the Midshipmen needed to come from behind to preserve their undefeated season. This time, that comeback took until there were 15 seconds left, when junior quarterback Zach Abey completed a 16-yard touchdown pass to push Navy past Air Force 48-45. Abey accounted for four total touchdowns in the back-and-forth affair.

This week the Midshipmen may not be so lucky, heading to Memphis as four-point underdogs (3:45 p.m. ET, ESPNU). The 76-point over/under implies another offensive afternoon, perhaps 40-36 in the Tigers’ favor.

Stanford (4-2): The Cardinal slipped past Utah 23-20 in a tough, one might even say gritty, game. Junior running back Bryce Love managed only 152 yards on 20 carries, but his fourth-quarter, 68-yard touchdown run provided the difference.

Stanford turned to two quarterbacks. Keller Chryst completed 7-of-14 passes for 106 yards while K.J. Costello went 6-of-10 for 82 yards.

Whoever takes the snaps against Oregon this weekend (11 p.m. ET, ESPN) will undoubtedly rely on Love to match a 10.5-point spread in the Cardinal’s favor. A 36-25 final may make for a low-scoring #Pac12AfterDark, but that catchphrase exists for a reason. Something is bound to keep it interesting.

Got questions? It’s bye week. Let’s try to answer them.
Later this week, this space intends to run a mailbag. If you have any questions for it, drop them into the comments below. They do not need to be litigated there — and they just might “disappear” if they are — but good ones will be noted and hopefully answered by week’s end.

Spring Outlook: Notre Dame’s linebackers, a proven two and then many questions

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Any concerns about Notre Dame’s linebackers were allayed when Te’von Coney spurned the NFL to return for his senior season. That decision, and Drue Tranquill making the same move, means the Irish do not need to replace their two best playmakers at the position from last season.

Nonetheless, defensive coordinator Clark Lea does need to figure out how to fill in for the graduated Nyles Morgan and his 92 tackles, not to mention classmate Greer Martini and his 75, good for second and fourth on the team, respectively.

Spring Roster:
— Two known and welcome playmaking veterans in Coney and fifth-year Tranquill.
— More than a handful of unproven and untested possibilities in rising senior Asmar Bilal, rising juniors Jonathan Jones and Jamir Jones (no relation), and rising sophomores Drew White, David Adams and Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah.
— A trio of early-enrolled freshmen in Jack Lamb, Bo Bauer and Ovie Oghoufo.

Summer Arrivals:
Incoming freshman Shayne Simon, a likely rover candidate.

Entering 2017, Te’von Coney was not even a starting linebacker. By the end of the season he was the leading tackler, and in 2018, he will be counted on as a defensive stalwart. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Depth Chart Possibilities:
Wherever Tranquill ends up — be it at rover or a more traditional linebacker position, with the latter seeming more likely — someone will need to earn the third starting role. Bilal is the front-runner for that duty, at either position, but he will need to show a quicker understanding of the game than he has in the past.

The rising senior has always been ready physically, but he has looked up the depth chart at the likes of Morgan, Martini, Coney and Tranquill. Opportunities were not readily available. Now that one very much is, Bilal will need to either seize it or get ready to be bypassed by the newcomers.

It would be a surprise for Lamb or Bauer to be named that third starter in their freshman season, but both could certainly land in the two-deep, as that entire second unit is up for grabs. Neither Jones showed much last season, and the linebacker recruiting emphasis of 2018 belied the coaching staffs’ opinions of the rising sophomores pretty clearly.

Presuming Bilal steps forward and secures the starting position, and some combination of Jones, Jones, Lamb and Bauer fill two of the backup roles, only Owusu-Koromoah stands out as an obvious rover substitute. In that respect, depth remains a concern at the defense’s second level, albeit less of one than in years past thanks to the influx of four touted freshmen.

Biggest Question:
Where does Tranquill line up against Michigan on Sept. 1? More to the current purpose, where does he line up in the Blue-Gold Game on April 21?

“My responsibility as linebackers coach is to put the best combination of people on the field,” Lea said Feb. 7. “I think everyone can see Drue Tranquill had a skillset, a talent base that can play multiple spots. Through the course of the winter and spring, we’ll take a look at different options.”

The duties at rover can be handled piecemeal, accounting for the tendencies of each opponent. When facing an up-tempo, aerial attack, perhaps even rising senior cornerback Shaun Crawford could be featured there. When facing a physical, ground-bound opponent, Bilal would make more sense.

Shifting around like that at the Buck linebacker spot makes far less sense. While Tranquill never necessarily had the speed to excel at safety, and two knee injuries only further limited him in that respect, he shined at rover in 2017. Concluding his collegiate career at linebacker is logical, both as it pertains to his development thus far and to his professional aspirations.

2017 Statistically Speaking:
Rarely can a defense lose two of its top-four tacklers and still return more than 200 tackles from starting linebackers. Thus is the luxury provided by both Coney and Tranquill bypassing the NFL for another year.

Coney: 116 tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss including three sacks, and one forced fumble which he recovered.
Tranquill: 85 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss including 1.5 sacks, one interception, three pass breakups, three fumbles recovered and one fumble forced.
Bilal: 18 tackles with 1.5 for loss.
Jo. Jones: 10 tackles with one for loss and one pass breakup.
Ja. Jones: Four tackles.

A 2018 Statistical Thought:
Presuming linebacker health, the three starters should end up as Notre Dame’s leading tacklers once again in 2018, even with the presumed drop off from Morgan to insert Bilal or Owusu-Koromoah or Lamb or … here.

The Irish defensive line will be much improved in 2018. Once upon a time, that seemed a guarantee just because the expectations for the line entering 2017 were so low, but it instead became a strength. Developing that strength and making it the backbone of Notre Dame’s defense moving forward will serve to burgeon the linebackers’ tackle totals, both at and behind the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame gets the letter: Jack Lamb
Notre Dame gets the letter: Bo Bauer
Notre Dame gets the letter: Shayne Simon
Notre Dame gets the letter: Ovie Oghoufo

Spring Outlook: Notre Dame’s running backs, as few of them as there are

A second four-star defensive lineman, Hunter Spears, joins the Notre Dame class of 2019

rivals.com
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When Notre Dame got five heralded defensive line recruits on campus together in January, it turned heads. When Irish defensive line coach Mike Elston offered public optimism about the possible 2019 commitments, it raised expectations.

Notre Dame has now secured a second of those five with the Tuesday commitment of consensus four-star defensive end Hunter Spears (Sachse High School; Texas). He joins consensus four-star defensive tackle Jacob Lacey (South Warren H.S.; Bowling Green, Ky.) as the early foundation to the recruiting class, now with four prospects pledged.

“Honestly, just talking with the guys today — Jacob Lacey, Mazi Smith, Joseph Anderson, Nana Osafo-Mensah, and myself — if Notre Came can land all of us, that would be the dream d-line class for Notre Dame,” Spears told Irish Illustrated. “I could see another pass-rusher or two, also.”

The other three names Spears mentioned all joined Lacey and him on Jan. 27 at an on-campus Junior Day. All five qualify as consensus four-stars, with Smith (East Kentwood; Kentwood, Mich.) a tackle, Anderson (Siegel; Murfreesboro, Tenn.) an end, and Osafo-Mensah (Nolan Catholic; Fort Worth, Texas) a possible end/linebacker hybrid.

From left to right: Osafo-Mensah, Anderson, Elston, Smith, Lacey and Spears. (Twitter: @JacobLacey6)

Landing all five may be ambitious, but it would also be the envy of most of the country.

Spears already held offers from the likes of Alabama and Michigan State, despite missing his junior season with a knee injury. The Irish extended a scholarship offer to him in June, prompting an unofficial visit to watch a 49-14 Notre Dame victory over USC in October. In a video released by 247Sports.com, Spears cited that experience as one of the three primary reasons he committed, along with the educational opportunity and the “overall tradition and culture.”

Spears shows quickness for a defensive lineman, but not such that he would ever be considered an outside linebacker in any form. His size makes him an ideal candidate to set the edge against the run or possibly move inside when the Irish need a quicker defensive line to handle certain opponents. His agility, though, will make him a three-down threat, both a pass-rusher and an edge-setter.

Notre Dame currently has depth at defensive end, but with only one signed in the class of 2018 (Justin Ademilola) and one remaining from the class of 2017 (Kofi Wardlow), an influx will be a priority this recruiting cycle. Spears will theoretically have one season to adjust to collegiate competition before the quartet of rising juniors Daelin Hayes, Khalid Kareem, Julian Okwara and Ade Ogundeji run out of eligibility. (The first three have two seasons remaining, while Ogundeji has the possibility of three more years.)

Hence, that Junior Day emphasis and Elston’s confidence on National Signing Day.

“I’ve been at Notre Dame now going on for nine years, and I haven’t had a stronger group of underclassmen that I’m recruiting than I have this year in 2019,” Elston said. “This could be the best defensive line haul we’ve ever had here.”

Expect to read that quote again and again (and possibly again) if any of the remaining three in the above photo follow Spears’ and Lacey’s lead.

RELATED READING: ‘Accelerated’ start creates bright outlook for Notre Dame’s 2019 recruiting cycle

Spring Outlook: Notre Dame’s running backs, as few of them as there are

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Notre Dame will open spring practice in about two weeks. As always, the proceedings will be filled with positive reviews, optimistic outlooks, and an injury or two.

A quick look at each position group should lend a better understanding to those perspectives and effects, beginning with the group lacking many questions — the running backs. The biggest reason there is relative certainty around the running backs is there are just so few of them following the winter dismissals of rising junior Deon McIntosh and rising sophomore C.J. Holmes.

Spring Roster:
Rising senior Dexter Williams (pictured above)
Rising junior Tony Jones
Early-enrolled freshman Jahmir Smith
Rising junior Mick Assaf

Summer Arrivals:
Incoming freshman C’Bo Flemister

No one received more praise last spring practice than Tony Jones. He had a successful 2017, but compared to that hype, it could have been considered under-performing. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Depth Chart Possibilities:
At some point, either Williams or Jones will be named the Irish starter. It is quite possible that will be a distinction without much difference, as the two could certainly complement each other well in offensive coordinator Chip Long’s system, which already prefers to use multiple running backs.

Human nature, though, dictates is more likely one back receives a majority of the carries.

Biggest Question:
If Williams lines up with the No. 1 offensive unit in the Blue-Gold Game (April 21) to conclude spring practice, that will be the first genuine and tangible evidence he has improved as a pass blocker. Despite his big-play speed and seeming-ease breaking tackles, Williams’ one-dimensional game rendered him as much a liability as an asset in 2017.

Even in the Citrus Bowl victory, Williams followed up back-to-back rushes for a combined 36 yards with a blown pass protection resulting in a 13-yard sack.

“You have to be able to protect the quarterback with all positions,” Long said Feb. 7. “That dictates a whole lot if you’re going to play a lot or just be a situational guy. It’s something you have to embrace, the physicality.

“… That’s really the main thing, other than protecting the ball, that’ll keep a back off the field in our offense.”

The best ability is availability, and both an ankle injury and a balky quad limited Williams in that respect in 2017. Little blame can be cast for the natural bruises of football. Nonetheless, he will need to “embrace the physicality” if he wants to become more than a situational back.

Otherwise, Jones will be the default option. He has already shown a knack for both pass blocking and catching, making him a three-down option. Notre Dame will always prefer that rather than tip its hand to a running play every time Williams enters the game.

2017 Statistically Speaking:
Obviously, Josh Adams carried the burden in the running game last season. Behind rising senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush and McIntosh, Williams was only the No. 4 rusher on the roster in yards and touchdowns, while Jones was No. 4 in carries and No. 5 in yards and scores.

Williams: 360 yards on 39 carries, a 9.2 average, with four touchdowns. Two catches for 13 yards and one score.
Jones: 232 yards on 44 carries, a 5.3 average, with three touchdowns. Six catches for 12 yards.
Notre Dame gets the letter: Jahmir Smith
Notre Dame gets the letter: C’Bo Flemister

Monday’s Leftovers: Geography, as much as academics, caps Notre Dame’s recruiting possibilites

Associated Press
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A year ago, Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly acknowledged a practical ceiling on Irish recruiting efforts.

“Since I’ve been here, if you look at the average rankings, we’re anywhere from 5 to 15,” Kelly said on 2017’s National Signing Day, a day on which Notre Dame secured the No. 13 class in the country, per rivals.com. “We’re going to fall somewhere in that range because there’s a line there we can’t get over based upon what our distinctions are here. That line is going to keep us between 5 and 15.

“We know where we’re going to fall. We’re going to continue to recruit the right kind of kids here.”

Sure enough, the Irish once again fall into that spectrum in 2018, finishing No. 11 per rivals. Though Notre Dame has risen above that range once (No. 3 in 2013) and fallen below it once (No. 20 in 2012) during Kelly’s tenure, his overall analysis remains accurate.

The instinct has always been to cite University academic standards as the greatest hurdle to rising into the top five consistently, but another aspect should not be overlooked. In a recent mailbag, Sports Illustrated’s Andy Staples pondered the factors keeping the Irish from becoming a perennial 10-win team.

“Another major reason is a lack of a local recruiting base,” Staples wrote. “No program has a stronger national reach than Notre Dame, but that still doesn’t make recruiting nationally easy. It’s much easier to have hundreds of quality prospects within driving distances.”

That dynamic is a part of why the Irish are better positioned to reap rewards from high school juniors now being able to take official visits in April, May and June. Those time periods are less hectic for most high schoolers, so a long-distance trip may fit into the calendar with a bit less stress. Obviously, only time will tell the true impact of that new change.

Looking at both this past year’s recruiting rankings and the last nine years of rankings underscores and supports Staples’ point.

Rivals considered 33 prospects to be five-star recruits in 2018. Only seven schools managed to sign multiple such players: Georgia (8), Clemson (6), USC (5), Alabama (3), Ohio State (3), Penn State (2), and Miami (2). To speak more broadly, four schools in the Deep South, two in the Ohio-Pennsylvania corridor and one in California, all talent-rich areas, especially compared to Indiana, Illinois and Michigan.

If combining the total signees of both four- and five-star rankings by rivals, Notre Dame signed 12 such prospects. Only 11 schools signed more, including six of the above seven. (Clemson equaled the Irish haul, though its even split between four- and five-star recruits stands out compared to Notre Dame’s 12 four-stars.) The additional five: Oklahoma, Texas, Florida State, Auburn and Florida. In other words, two schools tapping into Texas, two schools within Florida and one more in the Deep South.

If looking at the last nine years of recruiting, the span of Kelly’s time in South Bend, only eight programs have consistently out-recruited the Irish, all but one mentioned already. LSU finished with the No. 13 recruiting class in 2018, lowering its nine-year average placement to 8.0. The Tigers are one of five SEC teams in that group of eight, joining Florida State, Ohio State and USC.

Sense a theme?

It will always be hard enough for Notre Dame to find high-caliber players likely to succeed at a strong academic institution in the Midwest. That task is even harder knowing how far away those players typically are to start with.

Other programs face a similar challenge, and few handle it as well. Consider the 2018 recruiting classes of Stanford, Michigan and Michigan State, for familiar context.

Stanford finished with 4 four-stars in rivals’ No. 63 class. The Wolverines pulled in 7 four-stars as part of the No. 24 class, while the Spartans signed 5 four-stars in the No. 26 grouping.

The Blue-Chip Ratio
Finishing within Kelly’s range has not stopped Notre Dame from consistently having one of the most-talented rosters in the country. If abiding by rivals rankings for consistency, 45 of the 89 players currently on the Irish roster (including incoming freshmen) were four- or five-star recruits.

A commonly-cited metric of a roster’s talent is the so-called “Blue-Chip Ratio.” Essentially, a national championship caliber team will have at least 50 percent of its roster consisting of former four- or five-star prospects. Entering 2017, Notre Dame was one of only 10 such teams in the country.

As should be expected, the other nine included six programs from the Deep South, Ohio State, USC and, as an ode to Jim Harbaugh’s early recruiting successes, Michigan.

A Presidents Day Reminder
Notre Dame cannot officially claim any POTUS as an alum, but both Josiah Bartlet and James Marshall would like to argue otherwise.

INSIDE THE IRISH READING:
Notre Dame’s pending attrition actually intended to improve the roster
NCAA denies Notre Dame’s appeal, vacating 21 wins, including 12-0 in 2012
Notre Dame is right: The NCAA’s terrible precedent matters, but vacating wins does not
‘Accelerated’ start creates bright outlook for Notre Dame’s 2019 recruiting cycle
Notre Dame’s successful early signing period now begets early visit questions

OUTSIDE READING:
NCAA appeals committee upholds vacation of Notre Dame wins
A letter from the President on the NCAA Infractions Case
Irish set high expectations for Jurkovec
Elston ‘recruits’ Tillery, Bonner for one last ride
Giants release defensive end Ishaq Williams with a failed physical designation
Re-ranking the longest FBS coaching tenures from 1-to-230
Hip injury to keep Stanford QB K.J. Costello sidelined for much of spring drills