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A statistical look at Notre Dame’s offense through six games compared to the past

Before the season, it was largely expected Notre Dame’s passing game would thrive. This thinking came from offensive coordinator Chip Long’s past, Irish head coach Brian Kelly’s tendencies and Notre Dame’s recent history.

That has not been the case. Instead, the Irish offense has gone as far as its running game could carry it. In five of six instances, that was plenty far enough.

The obvious ways to illustrate those differences come in rushing and passing yards per game, maybe with an inclusion of points per game. Averages of 308.0 rushing yards and 163.2 passing yards leading to 40.0 points per game do not quite tell much of a story, though.

Rather, let’s refer back to a grouping of statistics discussed before the season. The premise behind them was they are quickly found and calculated, but they still give a more in-depth understanding of a particular game or season.

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“Both third down conversion percentage and turnover margin are more accurate indicators of possession and control of the game than time of possession is. An explosive offense might find the end zone multiple times from 50 or more yards away, diminishing the time of possession while still dictating the terms of the contest. Average yards per pass attempt indicate just how frequent those big plays may be. Total rush attempts show how confident an offense is in its ability to produce in the most basic way possible.”

Using 2016 as the low-end of the performance spectrum and 2012 as the high-end, with the intervening three years as a combined middle ground, how has Notre Dame fared in those categories thus far in 2017?

Average yards per pass:
2017: 5.73 yards.
2016: 7.86 yards.
2013-2015: 8.13 yards.
2012: 7.46 yards.

Fewer than six yards per passing attempt may be concerning, but consider the stated purpose of the metric: To indicate just how frequent big plays might be. The Irish have not needed to rely on junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush’s arm for those big plays. Rather, his legs, and others in Notre Dame’s rushing game, have provided them. Of 23 Irish plays of at least 30 yards thus far this season, 16 have come on the ground.

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Rush attempts per game:
2017: 43.17
2016: 34.17
2013-15: 34.38
2012: 37.54

It may be obvious Notre Dame is relying on its running game this season, but it is still surprising to see the number of rushing attempts per game tick upward by 26.34 percent over last season. Some may claim this number is inflated by the inevitable draining of the clock in routs, and that is not false, but those moments alone do not account for such a spike. Rather, Long, Kelly and the Irish are simply running the ball that much more often.

Turnover margin:
2017: plus seven in six games, or +1.17 per game.
2016: negative four in 12 games, or -0.33 per game.
2013-15: negative nine in 39 games, or -0.23 per game.
2012: plus eight in 13 games, or +0.62 per game.

Much of the credit for the turnover margin should go to the defense for forcing 14 turnovers (more on the defense tomorrow, tentatively). Nonetheless, Notre Dame has given away the ball only seven times through six games, especially notable considering a first-time starter at quarterback has led the offense.

Third down conversion percentage:
2017: 39.56 percent
2016: 40.48 percent
2013-15: 44.11 percent
2012: 46.33 percent

Even if removing the abysmal 3-of-17 performance in the 20-19 Irish loss to Georgia, the Irish have converted only 44.59 percent of their third downs. That figure would greatly exceed the national average, but it is not necessarily the mark of an elite team or a team looking at sustained success. Despite everything Notre Dame has going for it offensively this year, more consistent success on third down will be an imperative for a breakthrough second half of the season.

Got questions? It’s bye week. Let’s try to answer them.
Later this week, this space intends to run a mailbag. If you have any questions for it, drop them into the comments below. They do not need to be litigated there — and they just might “disappear” if they are — but good ones will be noted and hopefully answered by week’s end.