Justin Jones

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Notre Dame’s Opponents: North Carolina State

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When opponents are described as “trap games,” that typically indicates the foe is only an average team, but Notre Dame will play down to its level for whatever scheduling or otherwise reason. Make no mistake about it: When the Irish host North Carolina State on Oct. 28, they will not be entering a trap game. The Wolfpack will be anything but average this season.

Come year’s end, NC State’s record may be only 8-4 or perhaps 9-3. More than a reflection of the team’s overall talent, that will be an effect of playing in the ACC’s Atlantic Division.

2016 REVIEW
That division ground down the Wolfpack last year. If a particular field goal had found its mark, though, current projections would likely be far more optimistic. Such are the perils of college football and its small sample size.

NC State finished 2016 with a 7-6 overall record, 3-5 in the ACC. If deferring to advanced metrics, it could be quickly argued the Wolfpack performed such they should have won eight or nine games, losing four separate contests by one possession or less while winning only two such games.

The first of those losses came in the season’s second week, 33-30 at East Carolina. From there, NC State rattled off three wins, culminating with the 10-3 victory over Notre Dame in a literal hurricane.

A week later, the aforementioned fateful field goal missed its mark, allowing eventual national champion Clemson to sneak into overtime when hosting the Wolfpack, later prevailing 24-17. That started a four-game losing streak for NC State, including a 54-13 shellacking at Louisville (44-0 at halftime) before stumbling 21-14 vs. Boston College.

Looking to end that disappointing stretch, NC State led Florida State late in the fourth quarter before giving up a touchdown, falling 24-20.

The Wolfpack ended the season with a 41-17 victory over Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

WHAT NC STATE LOST
This section will be quick today, as the Wolfpack lost only three players of distinct note. Running back Matthew Dayes heard his name called in the NFL Draft’s seventh round after leading NC State with 1,166 rushing yards, a 4.7 yards per carry average and 10 touchdowns.

Defensive backs Josh Jones and Jack Tocho also enjoyed the NFL Draft, going in the second and seventh rounds, respectively. Jones led the Wolfpack with 109 tackles last season, adding eight pass breakups and three interceptions, matching Tocho’s nine pass breakups and two interceptions.

WHAT NC STATE GAINED
The Wolfpack signed 20 commits in the class of 2017, the No. 53 class in the country per rivals.com, including two four-star recruits. Defensive tackle Grant Gibson will not see much action this year, but receiver Antoine Thompson could find himself in the mix.

UPDATE: the dismissal of two freshmen and the suspension of threeEarly Tuesday afternoon NC State announced more following an investigation into sexual assault allegations from an incident occurring during the summer. Thompson was one of the two dismissed from the team.

HEAD COACH
Dave Doeren enters his fifth year at NC State with a middling 25-26 record. Even if removing his 3-9 debut, the resulting 22-17 record includes only ho-hum seasons of 8-5, 7-6 and 7-6. Nonetheless, he has a contract through 2019.

Dave Doeren (Getty Images)

This year’s Wolfpack present Doeren his best chance yet to break into the Clemson and Florida State controlled upper-ranks of the division, let alone of the conference. Louisville also remains just below those two powers, however above NC State in recent years.

OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
For a team known for its defense, the Wolfpack still present a dynamic offense. In theory, it should only improve on last year’s 27.0 points per game, now entering offensive coordinator Eliah Drinkwitz’s second season. Drinkwitz came from Boise State, where he held the same role, and now-junior quarterback Ryan Finley followed him in the move. Finley completed 60.4 percent of his passes last season, throwing 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Ryan Finley (Getty Images)

Though Finley loses his most-productive offensive weapon in Dayes, he does return his top-four pass-catchers, with two of them also filling in for Dayes in the backfield. Junior Jaylen Samuels led NC State with 55 receptions last year, taking them for 565 yards and seven touchdowns while also adding 189 rushing yards and six touchdowns on a 5.7 average per carry.

At 5-foot-11, 223 pounds, Samuel will be a bruising back defenses have to fear in all aspects of the game. While keeping an eye on him, they may struggle not to lose senior running back Nyheim Hines, all 5-foot-9, 197 pounds of him. Hines caught 43 passes for 525 yards last season, and will be as much a preferred target of Finley’s as he will be a ballcarrier, if not more so.

Senior receiver Stephen Louis used his deep-threat abilities (19.4 yards per catch) to lead the Wolfpack in receiving yards, totaling 678, while sophomore Kelvin Harmon will line up opposite Louis, fresh off a debut campaign complete with 27 catches for 462 yards and five touchdowns.

With all of these weapons, Finley will have one more luxury: time. The NC State offensive line allowed only 17 sacks last year and returns four starters to continue that trend.

DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
It is the Wolfpack defensive line that remains the entire team’s greatest strength. Four seniors start, led by defensive end Bradley Chubb. In 2016, Chubb managed 10.5 sacks and 11.5 more tackles for loss. If trying to run away from him, opposing offenses find Kentavious Street, who totaled 30 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss last year. Street may be a preferable choice, but he is not exactly an ideal one.

Bradley Chubb (Getty Images)

On the interior, tackle Justin Jones recorded 43 tackles, three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss while 6-foot-4, 315-pound BJ Hill fills the middle.

Hill absorbs blockers, freeing the linebackers, primarily senior inside linebacker Jerod Fernandez. He was second on the team in tackles in 2016 with 88. Classmate Airius Moore finished third with 86, not to mention 2.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, yet Moore may not even start this year with the return of senior Germaine Pratt from a shoulder injury. Pratt offers more of a coverage set of skills than Moore’s physical game. In some respects, that physicality becomes an expendable luxury thanks to the dominant defensive line.

Some coverage help may be needed thanks to losing both Jones and Tocha. If the secondary does hold up, the Wolfpack could lower an already-impressive average of 22.8 points allowed per game from a year ago. During Doren’s tenure in Raleigh, along with defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable, that average has fallen every season. Their first year saw a mark of 30.2 before improving to 27.0 in 2014 and 25.8 in 2015.

SEASON OUTLOOK
Being competitive will not be enough for NC State this year. Defensive front sevens like this group are rare commodities not to be wasted on psychological breakthroughs. The Wolfpack need to win in 2017, even if the over/under win total is only at 7.5.

That number is low because of the division. NC State’s schedule includes a trip to Florida State and visits from both Louisville and Clemson, as well as North Carolina at the end of the season. If adding in the trip to Notre Dame to that listing of games, the Wolfpack may realistically think of winning three of the five, and a 10-2 record could be enough to land in a top-tier bowl game. Managing only two losses in conference play might also position NC State to be the beneficiary of the division cannibalizing itself.

Monday, the 14th: Temple
Tuesday, the 15th: Georgia
Wednesday, the 16th: Boston College
Thursday, the 17th: Michigan State
Friday, the 18th: Miami (OH)
Saturday, the 19th: North Carolina
Monday: USC
Tomorrow: Wake Forest
Thursday: Miami (FL)
Friday: Navy
Saturday: Stanford (The same day as Stanford’s opener vs. Rice in Australia.)

And in that corner… The North Carolina State Wolf Pack

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Notre Dame is off to Raleigh on Friday—hopefully ahead of Hurricane Matthew. The Irish look to square their record at 3-3 and do so against a talented North Carolina State team that suffered a disappointing early-season loss to East Carolina.

A game that this offseason may have had the makings of a trap no longer has a chance at being overlooked, not with every weekend vital and not with the major midseason changes already taking place in the defensive team room. It’s also taken a huge turn towards the Wolf Pack, who opened as three-point underdogs but now appear to be field goal favorites in Las Vegas.

To get us ready for Dave Doeren’s team, we welcome in Daniel Lacy. A senior at North Carolina State who is majoring in sports management and minoring in journalism, Daniel writes for the student newspaper, the Technician, and is in his second semester as the sports editor.

I asked and Daniel answered. Hope we all enjoy.

 

 

When Tom O’Brien was replaced by Dave Doeren four years ago, NC State brass wanted to take the football program to the next level. Yet after two stellar seasons at Northern Illinois, Doreen’s success in Raleigh has been far more modest.

What are expectations for this year? And how stable do you think Doeren is as he gets into the meat of his 2016 schedule — a daunting stretch run?

Last season, expectations were sky-high, with some talks of NC State being a 10-win team. It fell well short of that, partially due to the midseason losses of its two star running backs — Shadrach Thornton before ACC play after he was kicked off the team and Matt Dayes in the eighth game of the season against Clemson after he sustained a season-ending foot injury. Therefore, expectations were not nearly as high coming into this season, especially with a more formidable nonconference schedule that features Notre Dame and ECU rather than last year’s slate that featured all cupcake games in Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama. Based on the tough schedule and loss of a few key seniors, expectations are that the Wolfpack most likely won’t surpass last season’s 7-6 record, and that six wins would be optimal for the team.

As for Doeren, I haven’t personally heard anything about his job being on the line other than the upset fan base after the loss to ECU. But if I had to guess, I would say that his job is safe for now, especially if the team goes .500. You’re absolutely right about the schedule though, it is a tough road ahead for the Pack. It faces Notre Dame, Clemson, Louisville and Florida State in four of the next five weeks before closing the season against Miami and UNC. Getting to .500 will not be as easy as it might sound on the surface, or as it has been in the past two seasons for this team.

Ryan Finley certainly has to be viewed as a nice surprise this season, the Boise State transfer flashing an impressive 9:0 TD:INT ratio, while completing 72 percent of his throws. What’s the Wolfpack offense look like with Eli Drinkowitz at the helm? How much trouble do you think they’ll give a Notre Dame offense that found only modest success last weekend with interim coach Greg Hudson at defensive coordinator?

The offense under Drinkwitz has looked much more efficient and moves at a faster pace. He has done a good job of working to his players’ strengths, and Finley has really thrived in his offense up to this point.

It also seems to features the wide receivers more, as Stephen Louis already has over 300 receiving yards on the season, while last year’s No. 1 wideout, Jumichael Ramos, finished with only 457. As long as it gets its playmakers involved, namely Dayes, Louis and Jaylen Samuels, this could end up being a high-scoring game.

 

Irish fans might not realize it, but this Wolfpack defense has a good looking front seven and a talented defense — featuring Josh Jones, Arius Moore, Kentavias Street and Darian Roseboro.

While the schedule hasn’t featured an offense as good as Notre Dame’s, how good can this defense be? And where do you expect the Irish to try to attack it?

The defensive line is definitely the strength of NC State’s defense, with the two guys you mentioned paired with the other three starters — juniors Bradley Chubb, B.J. Hill and Justin Jones — forming a rock-solid unit. It held Wake Forest to under 70 rushing yards and has nine sacks in the last two games, so as long as the D-line keeps performing at this level, it makes the whole defense better.

That being said, Notre Dame will surely attack the defense through the air. NC State’s pass defense struggled last year, and the loss of two starters in the secondary from last season — Juston Burris, a fourth-round draft pick, and Hakim Jones — hasn’t helped to start this season. It has improved marginally on the surface, but will undoubtedly be tested over the next few weeks.

 

From a playmaking perspective, running back Matthew Dayes has already broken 100 yards in three of the first four games. Jaylen Samuels seems like a unique weapon as well, with seven offensive touchdowns already.

Is this the best offensive personnel (excluding Jacoby Brissett) Doeren has had in Raleigh since he’s taken over?

This is a tough one. In 2014, NC State had a three-headed monster (Tony Creecy, Thornton and Dayes) in the backfield to go with Bo Hines at wideout and David Grinnage as a good red-zone target. Last year, Thornton, Dayes and Samuels all looked terrific at the beginning of the season, but as I previously mentioned, Thornton and Dayes weren’t playing by the end of the season. It also lost three starting offensive linemen from last season. If everything stays intact, this could end up being the best group of offensive playmakers in the Doeren era.

Dayes and Samuels might be the two most talented players on the entire team. Dayes has been a workhorse and the team leans on him for success. Samuels is listed as a tight end, but can line up just about anywhere on offense and is particularly dangerous on jet sweeps, shovel passes or swing passes where he has space to operate, and as you mentioned, he is great in the redzone, with seven touchdowns so far this season and 16 last season. Finley and Louis have both been nice surprises, but Notre Dame will be their biggest test yet.

 

Notre Dame opened as slight favorites, with the line moving in NC State’s direction. With an early kickoff and the Irish off to a disappointing start, this game doesn’t necessarily have the high profile nature both problems probably hoped for. How important is this visit for Wolfpack fans, only the second time these programs have played, and the first since the 2003 Gator Bowl?

This is a very important game for fans. NC State will be wearing throwback uniforms as it celebrates the 50th anniversary of the team playing in Carter-Finley Stadium. Like you said, these two teams have rarely played each other in the past, so this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Wolfpack fans and I’m sure they’d love to top off the experience by seeing a win.

 

If the Wolfpack win, give me a reason on offense and defense why it happens. If they lose, same thing.

And if you’re feeling generous, do you have a prediction?

If it wins, on offense, it will have needed contributions from all of its playmakers. Finley continues to be consistent and careful with the football, Dayes rushes for over 100 yards, Samuels gets a pair of touchdowns and Louis gets around 80 receiving yards.

Defensively, its pass defense can’t allow DeShone Kizer to get going. Part of the reason the Wolfpack lost to ECU was because Philip Nelson completed 33 of 43 pass attempts for 297 yards. It needs to limit Kizer and maybe force a couple turnovers.

If it loses, it would be because the Wolfpack couldn’t get Dayes going on offense. As I said previously, the team leans on him for success. Last week, Wake Forest cut the lead to 10 and had the momentum leaning in its direction going into the fourth quarter. This was largely because Dayes only got one carry in the third quarter, causing the offense to sputter and open a door for Wake to climb back into the game. It can’t afford not to get Dayes involved against a much better Notre Dame team.

Defensively, it would’ve allowed Kizer to get going both through the air and on the ground. NC State has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past couple years, namely Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, UNC’s Marquise Williams and Boston College’s Tyler Murphy (back when the latter two were still in school), particularly against the zone-read. NC State has yet to face a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but it could be the deciding factor in each of its next three games as it faces Kizer, Watson and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson in the next three weeks.

Score Prediction: 41-31 Notre Dame. Both of these teams were expected to enter this game undefeated, but neither has been good as expected. Because of this, NC State has a shot at keeping it close, but simply hasn’t fared well enough against teams of Notre Dame’s caliber in the past few years under Doeren to convince me that it has a shot at the upset.