I've thought long and hard about this weekend's game. (A loss like the Navy game will do that to you...) Yet the more I think about Pitt, the more I'm just not sure of what we'll actually see out there.

I understand that the AP Top 25 has Pitt ranked eighth, the BCS has the Panthers at twelve, and the Coaches' poll has them at ninth. But honestly, who really knows what kind of team Pitt is?

There are two parts of me thinking about this game, and I figure I'll just spell them both out:

Part One (aka Pitt doesn't scare me...):

What's to respect about Pitt? They're a poor man's, Big East equivalent of Iowa, a team that was finally exposed last weekend with a loss to Northwestern. Let's take a look at the Pitt schedule. A victory over Youngstown State that shouldn't count. A track meet victory against Buffalo, where this "vaunted" Pitt defense gave up 500 yards to Buffalo, 433 in the air, and capitalized on three lost fumbles. This isn't last year's Buffalo either, this is back-down-to-Earth Buffalo.

If you're looking for a signature victory, could it be Navy? A team that is now such an embarrassing loss that it could cost the Notre Dame coaching staff its job because they turned the ball over twice inside the five-yard line and came away with nothing in four trips to the red zone?

Pitt's one loss is an eyesore, a 38-31 loss to NC State, that only last week finally won their first ACC conference game with a win over 2-7 Maryland. If we want to talk about an ugly loss, this should qualify as an ugly loss.

While we should all give credit for Pitt winning the games on its schedule, what kind of credit should it be? This part of me is leaning toward the polite golf clap, something akin to sinking a three-footer for par. South Florida is doing it's annual sink, Pitt needed 21 second half points and a 15 point rally to beat UConn, and they won an "Ehh" Rutgers game, against a team that really hasn't beaten anyone close to good this season either.

This part of me expects a motivated Notre Dame, playing in front of a national audience, to overwhelm Pitt early and often, coming together in a cathartic experience to avenge last week's loss and the four-overtime debacle last season at home.

Part Two (aka Oh boy, is ND in trouble...)

When I think about match-ups I like, I don't think about Pitt.

Front four that can get pressure on a quarterback? That's Pitt. By the numbers, they've got a better pass rush than USC, and I think Paul Duncan kept his game uniform from that week and used it as a turn-style costume for Halloween. If USC provided a long day for the Irish while playing in the sanctity of Notre Dame Stadium, what's Pitt going to do in front of the largest crowd in school history?

And how about that running game everybody thought would fall apart when Mark May's favorite, Shady McCoy, left for the NFL. Dion Lewis has rumbled for 1,139 yards already this season and is averaging 5.6 per carry with 12 touchdowns. He's run for 100+ yards for four straight games and has yet to be held below 79 yards a game, so the Irish's middle-of-the-pack rush defense doesn't look like it'll present many problems.

Think tight ends have hurt the Irish? We haven't seen anyone like Dorin Dickerson since Anthony McCoy, so Dickerson might as well get his shoes shined and his Sunday best pressed and ready for the postgame media conference. Maybe the uneasy sleep I had this week was because I was seeing Dickerson run wild in the secondary, with Harrison Smith trailing behind him by four or five steps.

And speaking of the Irish's stout passing defense, Notre Dame has climbed all the way up to 88th, but mostly because they played woeful Washington State and Navy, who only attempted three passes, but still caught the Irish napping for a long touchdown pass. Add in Bill Stull, the fifth-rated passer in college football and deep-threat Jonathan Baldwin, who is averaging 20 yards a catch, and, well -- let's just say I didn't get a whole lot of confidence in Tenuta's gang over the past six days.

If this part of me has learned anything, it's that Notre Dame does it's very best to play to the level of its competition and hasn't executed with enough precision to win all the close games, especially in the red zone. Hopped up crowd, fragile team psyche, bad matchup and good opponent... hopefully the jitters won't effect the team's live-blogger as well.

*************

Now what do I think is going to happen? I still see a lot of resolve in this Irish team, but they've just made so many mistakes that I am done trying to predict what's going to happen. If anything, I feel like the Irish are due for some good luck, and nothing creates good luck like playing good football.

Up until the Navy game, I thought things were trending up, yet the loss to the Midshipmen put everybody on red alert. Still, I really feel like this Notre Dame team isn't the same as the disappointing group from last season, and that they'll figure out a way to win this game.

We'll find out a lot about this team tomorrow. If they rally around their embattled head coach and win decisively, it could get the Irish back on a roll and finishing the season strong. And if that happens, it could save the man that leads the program.    

While Charlie Weis acknowledged that Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate will have a decision to make come December, their choice has been made even more complicated with the uncertainty that looms in the NFL's ongoing labor negotiations.

It's tough to disseminate what's true and what's fiction when it comes to the murky waters of the NFL collective bargaining agreement. There has long been grumbling about the big-money guarantees paid to top draft picks, and that one of the first orders of business in these negotiations is changing the rookie compensation system. If that's the case, expect talented underclassmen to make the leap to the NFL now before the system changes, or even worse, the league locks out its players.

Since I don't pretend to understand complex issues like this, and how they might effect the fate of Jimmy Clausen or Golden Tate, I dropped an email to one of the only guys that truly does, PFT's Mike Florio.

Florio told me he thinks "underclassmen will come out in droves due to fear of no football due to a lockout or an NBA-style rookie wage scale if they work out a deal."

Before people jump to the conclusion that the Irish will lose both Clausen and Tate because of this, they should also consider that this swarm of players jumping might be the exact reason why Clausen and Tate stay at Notre Dame.

Writes Florio:

Here's the reality. With discussions on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement slowly getting warmed up, any new labor deal implemented before 2011 is widely expected to include some type of a rookie pay formula that purports to rein in the current windfalls received by the first eight, nine, or 10 players drafted.

This could prompt even more players to cram their way into a 2010 draft class that already is generating significant buzz as being one of the best in recent years, if not ever.

The problem, of course, is the money will be paid no matter how few or how many players crash the draft party. So as more of them join the flock, more of them will not be drafted in the top of the first round. Or in the first round at all. Or in any round.

On the surface, the smart move for many will be to wait. But what if there's a lockout in 2011? Players who choose not to join the draft in 2010 might not get paid in 2011, either, if the league isn't bluffing about being ready to lock out the players and if the players aren't bluffing about being ready to take it.

Florio notes that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell declared last December that there would be no change in the rookie compensation structure for 2010. He implores the commissioner to do the same this season, if only to help players make an informed decision regarding their future.

While Jimmy and Golden might very well decide that this season is their last at Notre Dame, the labor uncertainty in the NFL might do more to keep them in South Bend than anyone actually realizes.

I'll admit it, I'm a sucker for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Everything about it I enjoy, right down to the made for TV cheesiness that ESPN has mastered, with Chris Fowler doing his best Jim Nance at Augusta impression, and the little interview stations in different corners of the Downtown Athletic Club (or wherever the award ceremony has been moved to). If there's a trophy that's a better individual prize in all of sports, I'm game for a debate.

That said, there's nothing I dislike more than the run-up to the actual award. I've got no problem with people like the Heisman Pundit, who does his best Politico impression to predict the award's outcome, but when power brokers like ESPN and Sports Illustrated dedicate weekly power polls to predict the winner, it starts to feel like the tail is wagging the dog.

For much of the preseason, it's been preordained that the award was a three-man race between Colt McCoy, last year's winner Sam Bradford, and previous winner Tim Tebow. With Bradford down with a shoulder injury, Tebow being somewhat mortal and now recently concussed, and McCoy already having thrown five picks in four games, the season-long scripted kudos-fest seems to have unraveled a bit.

But don't tell that to ESPN.

Tebow still sits high above his Heisman throne, even after playing good-to-pretty good football. Yet to see how ESPN's Tim Griffin (whose Big 12 blog I enjoy and read daily) puts it, they're already polishing up a second little stiff-armer for Tebow. Ranked #1 in ESPN's "Heisman Watch, presented by Nissan," here's what Griffin had to say about Tebow's performance Saturday:

1. Tim Tebow, Florida: He still has had the most inspirational season of any leader, and if he rebounds from the concussion he suffered against Kentucky in time for the LSU game in two weeks, it will only add to his mystique. His statistics vs. Kentucky were pedestrian by his high standards before his injury -- 123 yards rushing, two TDs, 103 passing yards, one TD -- but he will be primed for a big comeback when he returns to the lineup.

Meanwhile, down at #5, he has this to say about Jimmy Clausen's game at Purdue:

5. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: Back-to-back fourth-quarter comebacks on an injured foot has a certain sense of drama, particularly when it's being directed by a Notre Dame quarterback. Clausen's 2-yard, fourth-down TD pass to Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds left showed his moxie in the victory over Purdue. His statistics were mediocre (171 passing yards, one TD pass, minus-13 yards rushing) but his comeback late in the game on one healthy foot was supreme.

I'm already on the record as saying this watch list is silly, but if you're going to do it, at least do it right. There are plenty of superlatives that Tim Tebow already deserves, but let's dial back the "inspirational season rhetoric." Was he inspirational in his two performances against cupcakes Charleston Southern and Troy? Was he inspirational still playing with the game well in hand when he was drilled by a defensive end coming around the corner? I'm a Tebow fan, but we've yet to see a truly Heisman-esque performance this year.

Likewise, it feels like Griffin is trying to support an argument instead of fill out a ballot when he places Clausen at fifth. Back-to-back fourth quarter comebacks have a sense of drama regardless of where the football is played, not just for Notre Dame. And Clausen's "mediocre stats" were more a product of him sitting out almost half the football game, not because of anything he did. Even mentioning Clausen's minus 13 rushing yards is confusing, since when did getting sacked on a bum wheel turn into a negative for a dropback passer like Clausen?

The point of this isn't to rail on Griffin, a very good journalist most likely assigned to a water-cooler topic as part of a synergistic plan to take advantage of ESPN's broadcast rights to the Heisman telecast. (Editors Note: Be sure to check out the on-air plugs for the Inside the Irish live blog during the NBC broadcast of Notre Dame games!) The point is that too often we go into the season trying to support a thesis, not trying to decide who the best player in the country is.

There are plenty of "intricacies" to Heisman balloting that already influence voters minds. The last thing we need is season long politicking by the network that broadcasts the ceremony, even if it is just for the sake of additional content.

UPDATE:

In the spirit of full disclosure, it seems like ESPN isn't the only one that does something like this...  

I've been reading some opposing viewpoints to try and get a better feel for this game, and stumbled upon a few good reads. Thought I'd pass them along:

The Wolverine.com:

Breaks down the matchups. Here's how he sees it:

UM's pass protection vs. ND's pass rush -- Edge: ND
ND's pass protection vs. UM's pass rush -- Edge: UM
UM's rush offense vs. ND's rush defense -- Edge: UM
ND's rush offense vs. UM's rush defense -- Edge: Push
UM's pass offense vs. ND's pass defense -- Edge: ND
ND's pass offense vs. UM's pas defense -- Edge: UM
UM's special teams vs. ND's special teams -- Edge UM
UM's coaching vs. ND's coaching -- Edge: Push

Final score: Notre Dame 28, Michigan 21.

MGoBlog.com

They give us an in-depth positional breakdown as well. I was especially interested in their take on Jon Tenuta replacing Michigan man Corwin Brown.

"So it sort of sucks that TAH-NOO-TAH has bumped aside Judas/mole Corwin Brown. Brown spent the last two games against Michigan in a cover-two umbrella and hardly ever blitzed or even put a seventh guy in the box. If Michigan hadn't fumbled six times in last year's game, boy howdy, we might have come within 18 points thanks to Brown's never-ending ability to sit back and calmly consider a situation for three or even four quarters. Tenuta just blitzes from everywhere."

Their work with pie charts is equally admirable, and they project a final score of Michigan 27, Notre Dame 23.

AnnArbor.com

Friend of ITI Mike Rothstein talks to the Chicago Tribune's Brian Hamilton about the Irish. When asked about the team's most glaring weakness, Hamilton points to Notre Dame's big uglies.

"Offensive and defensive lines. No question. I've said this before and I'll say it again: I refuse to believe that offensive linemen who have been around for four or five years suddenly, all at once, in one offseason, go from mediocre to great. It just doesn't work that way. If the offensive line is consistently average, at least it's consistent. If it backslides to the way it's played at times last year and two years ago, it's going to cost Notre Dame a game it shouldn't lose.

"The defensive line just has question marks all over, whether it's because of youth or that they're generally unproven as performers. And since the Irish haven't been particularly stellar at stopping the run the past couple seasons as it is, it's a concern."

Mike also has a good column about a former Syracuse head coach that we won't mention who is now in charge of thwarting the Notre Dame offense this week.

Okay, so it wasn't exactly a showdown, but both Brian Cook of MGoBlog and I took part in a two-part podcast with Will Brinson of BusterSports.com.

It was nice of Will to invite me on, and if you're looking for a little opinion on what Brian or I think is going to happen this Saturday, be sure to check it out.

It was interesting to hear Brian compare playing Notre Dame this weekend to playing with the "house's money." If the Wolverines go into Saturday's game with that attitude, I think many of us Irish fans will be very happy. 

(And no, I don't mean the fires...)

While we are a long, long, long, long, looong way away from October 17th, it bears mentioning a few minor updates that are happening in South-Central Los Angeles.

* Starting defensive end Armond Armstead broke a bone in his foot a few weeks ago and could miss anywhere from 6 to 8 weeks.

* Starting center Kristofer O'Dowd dislocated a knee cap could miss a month.

* Starting wide receiver Ronald Johnson broke his collarbone in a final scrimmage and is expected to miss 6 to 8 weeks.

* Starting cornerback Shareece Wright was declared academically ineligibile for the season after failing to bring up his grade-point-average up to acceptable levels.

(This is Wright's second run afoul this offseason. His July was spent trying to plea down a felony charge for resisting a police officer. (He succeeded, paid a fine and was given 200 hours of community service.))

Untested true freshman quarterback with a propensity to throw interceptions? Check. Four lost starters to injury or academics? Check. Home game in mid-October ---

Pump. The. Brakes.

I admit I'm getting ahead of myself...

There is no team in the country more uniquely qualified to replace key starters with top-tier talent than Pete Carroll's USC Trojans. That said, this is looking like one of those games where, well -- uh, you know.

I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

Dr. Saturday, Yahoo! Sports' Matt Hinton, takes his turn at the operating table as he dissects this season's Fighting Irish. Doc's preview is especially pragmatic, as he analyzes some of the talking points we've hit on a few times this week. Here are some of his thoughts on...

BCS or bust:

"Given just how dire the straits were between last year's regular season finale at USC -- yes, as I am obliged to mention, the one in which the Irish took all of three quarters to pick up their first down -- and the bowl win in Hawaii, it's not too much a stretch to read between the lines and come away with the assumption that another "disappointment" is the death knell for Weis."

A coming of age story:

"This group of players has more talent and more experience than the similar set of misfits -- Brady Quinn, Darius Walker, Jeff Samardzija, Rhema McKnight, John Carlson -- that made the leap from woeful underachievers in Tyrone Willingham's last two years to Stirrers of Echoes as upperclassmen when Weis showed up in 2005. In every respect, Clausen, Armando Allen, Golden Tate, et al are in better position to make that kind of leap than their predecessors were at the same stage of their careers."

Experience can't be that bad of a thing:

"Beyond any doubt, this has been a terrible line and is by far more likely than any other culprit to derail the offense; they're also not up-and-comers just rounding a corner like the skill guys. Still, there aren't many circumstances where five seniors with at least a season of starting experience would be considered anything but a major positive, and this isn't one of them -- it's much more likely the veterans produce a more passable effort than a bunch of cabbage."

The ceiling:

"I defy you to honestly project more than two losses from games against Michigan, Michigan State, Boston College, Pittsburgh, UConn and Stanford. ND is likely to go into each of those games as a clear favorite, meaning it can drop two games it shouldn't and still finish in the nine-win/top 15-20 range.

So I think it's hard to argue that the Irish's ceiling isn't very high, along the lines of 10 wins and a BCS berth that will set most of the rest of the country into a furious backlash and projections of doom, which of course they'll take in a heartbeat. I think they'll take nine wins, too, as a significant step toward the prize even if it remains slightly out of reach."

It seems as if we've found our median.

Hinton, along with Kirk Herbstreit, seem to be as middle-of-the-road as you can get with his forecast for the 2009 season. When dealing with the sticky question as to whether and 8-4 season is a fireable offense, Hinton wisely declares that it "probably depends on which eight and which four."

While we've done plenty of linking to optimistic predictions for the 2009 Fighting Irish, we thought it only fair to at least mention a few of the pessimistic viewpoints being written.

Exhibit A comes from the Bleacher Report, where scribe Jonathan Slotter makes the case for a "7-5 Irish record, or 8-4 at best."

He has the schedule breaking down like this:

ND 38, Nevada 34
ND 24, Michigan 14
MSU 28, ND 13
ND 31, Purdue 13
ND 21, Washington 14
USC 31, ND 7
BC 13, ND 7
ND 30, Wazzou 6
ND 27, Navy 17
Pitt 20, ND 14
UConn 10, ND 6
ND 30, Stanford 16

I can understand the loss to Michigan State, as they have absolutely owned the Irish for the past few years, as well as the loss to Boston College, even though they are searching the scrap heap for a quarterback, but I'm not sure about the loss to UConn or Pitt.

Interestingly enough, you'd think that Slotter would have Michigan fairing better than a double-digit loser to the Irish, but maybe he's been reading the newspapers lately.

The Wall Street Journal previewed the upcoming college football season, and asked "which college football giant awakens next?"

Using last year's Alabama squad as an example (as the South Bend Tribune did the same a few weeks ago), WSJ broke down last season's group of "fallen powers" into two divisions -- last year's mediocres and last season's disasters.

The Mediocres: Nebraska, Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson, and Colorado

The Disasters: Washington, Michigan, Texas A&M, UCLA, Tennessee, and Auburn.

I'll let WSJ take it from there:

Of that first set of six, the team most likely to make massive improvement and reach a Bowl Championship Series game is Notre Dame. Yes, Notre Dame. "Not a lot of folks are respecting them," says college-football analyst Phil Steele, who writes a popular preseason magazine.

Analysis of Notre Dame's chances this season has been most ironic. Typically, due to their popularity, the Fighting Irish receive more hype and higher poll rankings than many think they deserve. But as a result of two straight disappointing seasons under once-heralded coach Charlie Weis, they're actually underrated this time, entering this season ranked No. 23 in the Associated Press poll. "They could easily have been 10-3 last year," Mr. Steel says, pointing out that the 7-6 Irish blew double-digit leads and outgained their opponent in three of those losses. Plus, Notre Dame has overwhelming experience along its offensive line, the top factor in Alabama's turnaround last season.

The Journal has the Irish ranked 16th in their WSJ 16, with their top-five hosting the usual suspects in Florida, Texas, USC, and Oklahoma with Virginia Tech surprisingly sandwiched in at #3.

Interestingly enough, the Journal also mentions something that we've been noticing quite a lot this preseason as well -- the apparent skepticism and near resentment of the Irish from preseason prognosticators. It's almost as if pundits declare Notre Dame a factor at their own risk.

Regardless, the futile yet mandatory exercise of preseason predictions will be forgotten once the games kick off this Thursday.

The GameDay crew at ESPN decided to sit down and talk about the upcoming season for the Irish. Overall, some pretty level-headed discourse, but one of the biggest disappointments of it all was this:

Where is Mark May?

May has gotten under the skin of most hard-core Notre Dame fans with his good cop, bad cop shtick with Dr. Lou for the past few years, but he was nowhere to be seen when the guys made their predictions for the season.



Lou is already on record with his expectations this year, but hearing Kirk Herbstreit predict 10 wins and a BCS appearance has to make optimistic Irish fans feel better about the Kool-Aid they've been drinking.

And starting Monday, I'll be joining Robert Smith in the "Fear Nevada!" camp. While I don't think you can dismiss the pure mediocrity that was the 2008 Nevada defense, I'm not looking past game one with eyes toward Ann Arbor. Smith's prediction of 9 wins seems to be the baseline of the pragmatic optimist. 

You'll have to cut me some slack, this blog wasn't around when Lou Holtz made waves with his prediction for the BCS National Championship game.

In case you were under a rock (or in web-development chaos all week as well), here's what you missed: