Tag: Football Outsiders

Brian Kelly - vs. Michigan

2011 could be the year… Now with stats to back you up


I’m a few days late linking to Bill Connelly’s season preview of the Fighting Irish, but I can always blame the research needed to simply understand what Connelly is actually talking about for the delay.

Connelly is part of the wonderful team at FootballOutsiders.com, taking “innovative statistics and intelligent analysis,” two things that always trump the standard blow-harding that comes along with this time of year when people try and project who’s going to be good and who isn’t in the upcoming season.

I’ve done my best to ignore the fact that Notre Dame is a “consensus” preseason No. 12, if only because Notre Dame’s inclusion in preseason magazines and rankings rarely ever comes true. But when somebody actually takes the time to show WHY the Irish have the potential to be a very special football team, well — that deserves a second look.

Do yourself a favor and read Connelly’s entire preview. But here are a few tidbits I found incredibly interesting:

* Dayne Crist vs. Tommy Rees: It’s easy to look at the team’s record under Crist and the Irish’s record after Rees took over and to come to the conclusion that Rees played better. Even if you compare their stats, which are pretty similar, you’d think a spotless W/L record would give Rees the lead heading into fall camp.

But Connelly breaks down the numbers and shows that the Irish offense was actually better with Crist at the helm — with the Irish offense averaging 30.3 Adj. PPG with Crist and 26.7 Adj. PPG with Rees.

Both hovered around the national average of 27.1, but taking opponent into account, the offense performed slightly better with Crist at the wheel. (This despite the fact that running back Cierre Wood began to thrive late in the season as well, further aiding Rees.)  The Irish very much won games with defense over their final third of the season, and while Rees didn’t get in the way, Crist was the slightly more well-rounded option in terms of yards per pass, touchdowns-to-interceptions, and run threat (he’s not exactly Tony Rice, but he had 165 pre-sack rushing yards). I assume the starting job will be Crist’s when all is said and done, though Rees and evidently Everett Golson and Andrew Hendrix all still have a chance to sway the coaches.

While you wouldn’t have known it by watching the Blue-Gold game, I heard nothing but good things about Crist’s work during spring practice. Brian Kelly is going to stay mum about it for obvious reasons, but I suspect it’ll be Crist leading the Irish come September 3 against USF.

* Look out for the Irish defense. While some people still want to think differently, Bob Diaco did an outstanding job with the Irish defense. Even more impressive though, was Chuck Martin’s work with the secondary. Guiding a secondary that needed to forget a really ugly statistical season, Martin and Diaco helped the unit perform a 180, even more incredible when you consider they lost a starter in the season opener and played with only two healthy scholarship safeties for most of the season. Still, Diaco probably won’t be fully embraced until he shows he can stop the Navy option, but after that dreadful day, the defense was transformed.

The only time they gave up more than 14.3 Adj. Points in the last five games was against Miami in the Sun Bowl, and in that game they took a 30-3 lead before the Hurricanes got rolling. Theirs was potentially the best defense in the country after their humbling loss to Navy on October 23, and it is the primary basis for what will be some pretty strong College Football Almanac 2011 projections. Which is odd considering defense hasn’t been the strongest feature for Kelly’s teams in the past. So consider this a huge nod in the direction of defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, whose 3-4 alignment evidently fits the personnel very well.

Rarely do you see a position coach do such a good job with his unit and lose responsibility, but that’s what happened to Martin, who gave the cornerback coaching duties to Kerry Cooks. But don’t worry about Martin, he’ll have his hands full as recruiting coordinator and will likely have even more say in the weekly packages installed this season.

* Irish will improve at blitzing. One final note that caught my eye — Connelly makes mention of the defense saying, “Bob Diaco’s 3-4 defense almost had the statisticaly profile of a 4-2-5 — not great in attacking situations, but reacting, swarming, and preventing big plays…”

What’s interesting is that the Irish actually did slide into a 4-2-5 when they went to four down linemen, something I imagine they’ll do much more this season, with guys like Aaron Lynch, Steve Filer, and Ishaq Williams capable of bringing heat on the pass rush.

For as well as the defense played last season, I’m guessing the Irish want to be more effective when blitzing the passer. With the move of Prince Shembo to an outside linebacker spot opposite Darius Fleming, the Irish have two guys with elite pass rush ability standing on the edges of the defense, giving Diaco the ability to confuse a defense far better than he could last year, when Kerry Neal and Brian Smith weren’t great pass rush options.

Stepping up… The defensive line


As the Irish prepare to shift philosophies back to a 3-4 defense, no position seems better equipped for the change than the defensive line. With Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson, the Irish have three returning starters that played significant minutes, and also fit the physical dimensions needed to play in defensive coordinator Bob Diaco’s system. With Lewis-Moore and Johnson in their third year of college football and Williams entering his senior year, all three will have had sufficient developmental time physically to make a difference.

More interestingly, defensive line coach Mike Elston will also have a few more weapons at his disposal than any other position coach. Players like Darius Fleming may not be a perfect fit, but he has a skill-set that could greatly benefit the defense if used properly. The change in system could also help a guy like Kerry Neal, who has yet to reach the potential many believe he has. 

Returning starters doesn’t necessarily correlate with results, and after last season’s disappointing play in the secondary, nobody can be sure what the widespread system change and returning minutes will bring. Let’s take a closer look at who’s moving on, who’s staying put, and more importantly, who’s stepping up.


The majority of minutes lost by the defensive line come with the departure of defensive end John Ryan. Ryan logged the fifth most minutes of any defensive lineman, so it isn’t a devastating loss by any stretch of the imagination. The St. Ignatius graduate never truly fit into the Irish defensive system, lacking the explosiveness to be an effective 4-3 edge rusher and lacking the mass to play a 3-4 defensive end. Ryan saw the field as a wet-behind-the-ears freshman, logging 36 minutes of playing time and costing himself a much needed redshirt year of development. Morrice Richardson also graduates after playing only eight minutes this season, four years after stepping onto campus as a highly sought-after recruit.


The Irish defense returns more starters than positions. The key will be finding a role for all of them. Inside, the Irish can rely on Ian Williams to anchor the 3-4. Williams has the size and frame necessary to play the nose, and for the Irish front to be better than average, will need Williams to make “the leap” during his final season with the Irish. The future is also now for junior Ethan Johnson. Johnson was an all-everything recruit for Charlie Weis, but has yet to truly be the difference maker colleges all across the country throught he’d become. Johnson never truly fit as an interior defensive lineman, but also lacked the quickness off the edge, so the transition to the 3-4, along with nine months in Paul Longo’s strength program, should have him ready to make good on his potential. Kapron Lewis-Moore also returns for a second season starting at defensive end. KLM surprised people when he went from a redshirt season to the starting lineup, but the previous coaching staff properly identified Lewis-Moore as a guy with a very high ceiling, and he’ll only get better with experience. Darius Fleming also returns as a starter without a position. It’ll be interesting to see what Elston, Diaco and Kelly chose to do with Fleming, who might be the best pure pass-rusher on the team, but also lacks the size of a prototype defensive end or outside linebacker in the new defensive system.


Competition is going to be steep this fall for the defensive front, as only Ian Williams has truly solidified himself as an unquestionable starter among the returning players. Johnson has little in terms of production on Sean Cwynar, who impressed as an undersized 4-3 defensive tackle with his ability to disrupt. On the other side, the choice between Lewis-Moore or Fleming could all come down to individual game plans. Either way, with the new coaching staff’s offensive philosophy of throwing the time-of-possession battle out the window, the Irish will need to develop depth at every spot along the front-line. Here are a few guys that need to make a move this Spring:

The Entire First String: Yeah, it’s a cop-out, but each one of these guys needs to take things to the next level. Williams needs to play to the potential he showed as a scrappy, underdeveloped freshman. Johnson needs to show everyone why he was the most coveted recruit on the West Coast. He disappeared far too often last season. Lewis-Moore needs to take his impressive physical presence and turn it into some impressive on-field production. Darius Fleming has to prove to the coaching staff that he’s too dangerous of a player to keep off the field.

Kerry Neal: Neal was identified early by Bill Lewis and the former coaching staff as a guy that would develop into an elite prospect, and once the recruiting process was over, the staffs at Alabama, Miami, and a ton of other big time schools agreed. Neal played in every game during his freshman year, getting thrown into the fire immediately. With two sacks or less in his first three seasons, Neal hasn’t developed into the threat off the edge that many hoped, but watching him play this season, there were still flashes of the player many hope will develop in this new scheme. It’s up to Neal to make his senior season count.

Tyler Stockton: While Stockton redshirted during his freshman season, expect him to get every chance to get in the rotation with Williams at defensive tackle. People forget just how promising of a prospect this guy was; ESPN had him rated as the third best defensive tackle in the country. We many not know much about Stockton now, but expect to hear a lot from him this season.

Dark Horses: By the end of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sean Cwynar in the starting lineup. Brian Kelly recruited Brandon Newman while he was at Cincinnati, so he likely sees promise in the defensive tackle prospect as well. Hafis Williams could also be a guy that get in the rotation. With the lack of depth at defensive end, expect a guy like Justin Utupo or Kona Schwenke to get a chance to see the field as a freshman. 

Friday notes: Combine, achievers, competition and more


For those of you reading this at work, you probably have a pretty relaxed IT filter on your computer. Join me and a few thousand other people and stream the USA hockey game online at NBCOlympics.com. Honestly, nobody even forced me to tell you this, I’m just giving people a friendly reminder to tune in or stream live at 3p ET.

* As the NFL Scouting Combine heats up this weekend, that means those that keep track will certainly be updating their mock drafts. One of the better ones out there is SI.com’s Don Banks, who has Jimmy Clausen going 14th to the Seattle Seahawks and new coach Pete Carroll. (Something I hypothesized weeks ago…)

Banks writes:

We admittedly don’t know what Pete Carroll thinks of
Clausen just yet, but we can’t help but wonder if the Seahawks’ new
head coach will pick up the phone and give his good friend Charlie Weis
a call to discuss the former Golden Domer. That could be a bit awkward,
eh? With an offensive tackle secured at No. 6, and this draft deep in
running backs, it makes sense for Seattle to spend its second
first-rounder on Matt Hasselbeck‘s eventual replacement.

Chris Zorich, Todd Lyght, Ricky Watter, and Tony Brooks were just a few standouts from that class, but I can’t get over that both Tom Lemming and Allen Wallace were doing this 23 years ago! I can safely say the only thing I was worried about in 1987 was Kirby Puckett and the Minnesota Twins, and not missing the bus to grade school.

* Bill Connelly of Football Outsiders put together a fascinating article on the importance of recruiting rankings. While it’s difficult to sum up in a single sentence, Connelly took a look at the over and underachievers in recruiting over the past three seasons:

From Connelly:

Here is the three-year overachiever list, with numbers.
1. TCU (+44.0/season)
2. Cincinnati (+43.5)
3. Boise State (+39.1)
4. Florida (+35.1)
5. Navy (+32.7)
6. Air Force (+32.6)
7. BYU (+28.1)
8. Connecticut (+25.7)
9. Utah (+24.2)
10. Penn State (+21.7)

The expansion to a three-year sample bumped Texas (+18.6) to 16th
and Alabama (+18.2) to 17th, thanks to their underachieving 2007

You can make this list in two ways. You can either win with average
(or worse) recruits, or win big with good (or great) recruits.
Florida’s recruiting-based projected F/+ was second behind USC in all
three seasons (2007-09), but their actual F/+ output suggests that
recruiting can only get you so far. Coaching, execution, and a little
bit of overachieving are what you need to win (or contend for) titles.

Here is the three-year underachiever list.
1. Washington State (-39.3/season)
2. San Diego State (-28.2)
3. Texas A&M (-27.0)
4. Iowa State (-23.8)
5. Kansas State (-23.6)
6. Washington (-22.1)
7. Syracuse (-21.8)
8. Notre Dame (-21.7)
9. Colorado (-20.9)
10. Michigan (-20.3)

The fact that Notre Dame has upgraded from Charlie Weis, who led the
Irish to the eigth-place spot on the underachievers list, to Brian
Kelly, who led Cincinnati to second place on the overachievers list,
tells you all you need to know about why Notre Dame fans should be
absolutely ecstatic about their coaching upgrade. Experience and system
fit still matter, and we’ll see what Kelly has to work with in the 2010
season. But Kelly has proven himself more than almost any other coach
in recent seasons, and if anybody can take the Irish back to the Top
10, Kelly seems to be the man to (eventually) do it.

 While I may have been one of the last to think that Charlie Weis needed to go (well, not compared to one of our famous commenters), it should be very interesting to see what happens when an underachieving group of players meets an overachieving coaching staff. Like Connelly said, Irish fans should be very excited for the future. 

* Finally, I thought I’d share a video that’s making the rounds from Brian Kelly’s former team and the “Bearcat Olympics.” I never knew that the Tug of War could be so exciting. It sounds like this is an annual event, so it’s very possible Paul Longo and the strength staff could be bringing this to Notre Dame.