Eight and counting for series of previews profiling Notre Dame’s 2010 opponents. Check out the rest of them with Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt and Western Michigan.
The Overview:
Make no mistake, this is no longer a friendly rivalry. With Navy stunning the Irish 23-21 at Notre Dame stadium last season, the Midshipmen now have won two consecutive games at Notre Dame stadium, after a half-century of ineptitude against the Irish. Making things even more heated, was head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s comments in the postgame press conference, calling out the Notre Dame coaching staff’s game plan. Under Charlie Weis, Notre Dame treated Navy reverentially, leveling the playing field psychologically, and possibly doing the Midshipmen a favor by treating an inferior football team (talent-wise) with too much respect. The senior class, with two losses to Navy in three years (and a narrow escape in 2008) will likely come out looking to at least settle the series. While everybody realizes it now, with 12 returning starters including Heisman dark horse Ricky Dobbs, this game will be a true test for the Irish.
Last time against the Irish:
If the Michigan loss eats at the stomach’s of Notre Dame fans, the Navy loss was the one that broke their heart. The Irish found a way to lose the game without punting, a statistical anomaly made all the more ridiculous when you consider the Irish neither punted nor scored a point in the first half. Niumatalolo’s gameplan was orchestrated to perfection behind a running attack that absolutely killed the Irish defense, who gave up 348 yards rushing on 6.1 yards per carry. Notre Dame’s red zone execution, which including baffling play-calling, terrible execution, critical turnovers and missed field goals started the Irish on the freefall that would end their season.
Said Niumatalolo after the game:
“I really hope this doesn’t come across wrong, but I think the thing that helped us this year was last year because we knew that they’d line up the same way. We didn’t execute very well last year, and coming into this year they did a great job against us last year defensively, so we had a pretty good clue that they were going to come back and do the same things as they did last year, and we had a few things. We were expecting that same defense that we saw last year.”
Degree of Difficulty:
Of the 12 opponents, I rank Navy as the ninth-toughest game on the schedule.
3. Boston College Eagles
4. Michigan Wolverines
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Pitt Panthers
7. Stanford Cardinal
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Navy Midshipmen
12. Western Michigan Broncos
Only when you look at Navy as the 9th hardest game on the schedule do you start to understand that this slate isn’t as easy as it’s cracked up to be. There’s absolutely nothing positive the Irish get out of playing Navy anymore. Beat them, you’re supposed to. Lose? You’re packing your bags and coaching the offense in Kansas City. If Notre Dame comes out flat at the Meadowlands, I’ve extremely overestimated this coaching staff’s ability to motivate.
The Match-up:
The Irish defensive will live and die by how they stop star quarterback Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs had one of the more impressive statistical seasons in the country last year, both rushing and throwing for 1,000 yards. He only threw the ball three times against the Irish, but of one was a crucial third quarter strike for 52 yards that all but broke the Irish’s back and pushed Navy’s lead to 21-7. Also rejoining Dobbs is fullback Vince Murray, who absolutely shredded the Irish defense with the dive play, rumbling for 158 yards on only 14 carries. The 3-4 defense will help when playing against the vaunted Navy triple-option, but the Irish would be wise to key on Dobbs and Murray if they want to win.
The defense loses stand-out linebacker and Irish nemesis Ram Vela, but returns a veteran group. Three of four members in the Midshipmen secondary return, including both starting safeties. One name you’ll likely hear plenty of is rover Wyatt Middleton, who led the team in interceptions. For the Irish offense to succeed, they’ll need to play mistake-free football as well as attack the Navy defense on both the ground and through the air. Notre Dame racked up 502 yards of offense last year, so moving the ball wasn’t the problem, executing when it mattered, whether on field goals or in the red zone will be the key for success.
How the Irish will win:
The Irish will beat Navy by stopping the run and playing solid fundamental football. Regardless of whether or not the coaching staff had a good gameplan, the linebackers failed to tackle the fullback, a mortal sin when facing an option attack like Navy’s. With the athletes the Irish have at linebacker, and run-stuffers like Ian Williams and Manti Te’o in the middle, there’s no way that Navy can have the same success on the ground as the year before, especially if Bob Diaco has properly coached his defense. Offensively, the Irish will win with a solid run-pass ratio, and by keeping a handle on the football. Navy knew they needed to steal possessions and starting with Robby Paris’ first-half fumble, they did just enough to keep the clock in their favor and the ball in their hands. In the brand-new Meadowlands, the Irish should start a new winning streak.
How the Irish will lose:
Take last year’s blueprint, wash and repeat. Want to beat a football team with superior talent? Control the clock, win the turnover battle, and force an offense to become one-dimensional. Navy did all of that with an option offense second to none, and they’ve got all the pieces coming back to do it again. Ricky Dobbs is an elite college football player, the defense is opportunistic and good enough. If Navy wins this match-up in late October, the Irish will most likely put another opposing quarterback on the front-burner for the Heisman.
Gut Feeling:
Remember all those Irish fans who thought Charlie Weis meant no more losing to teams like Purdue, Michigan State, and other seemingly inferior opponents? Well, I’ve got a feeling by late October Irish fans will be feeling the same way about Brian Kelly. There’s too much motivation out there for the Irish starters to lose to Navy again, and the coaching change will allow this team to step back from the reverential treatment of the Midshipmen and treat Navy the way they should be treated: like a dangerous but undermanned opponent. Paced by a high-powered running attack, the Irish will take care of business, beating the Midshipmen by double-digits.