It’s not like we didn’t see this coming.
From the first Saturday Michael Floyd stepped on the field at Notre Dame, he looked the part of an NFL wide receiver. Whether it was the freshman records he set in touchdowns, receptions and yards, the pure ball skills that make him a red zone match-up nightmare, or the NFL-ready physicality, everybody that’s watched Floyd play these last three seasons knew there was a very real chance that Floyd only spent three seasons in a Notre Dame uniform.
So as the Irish go through their last-minute preparations for the Sun Bowl, the Notre Dame coaching staff and the Irish faithful are bracing for the very possible reality that Michael Floyd will be playing his last game in an Irish uniform this Saturday.
Let’s take a look at some of the key factors in the decision that lies ahead of Floyd.
THE DRAFT
Let’s deal with the elephant first. Any decision Floyd makes should be based on what he’ll likely get monetarily to forgo his final season at Notre Dame, and all of that is contingent on where he’ll go in the NFL Draft.
Both Floyd and tight end Kyle Rudolph have asked for evaluations from the NFL Advisory Board, trying to get a better grasp on where they’ll be selected if they enter this spring’s draft as underclassmen. There’s a general consensus among pundits that Floyd’s among the top-five wide receivers in this year’s draft, though he’s closer to the bottom of that grouping than the top, which could mean just about anything when it comes to hearing his name called.
Over the past six years, there have been 21 wide receivers taken in the first round. Three times, six wideouts have gone in the first, once none did. It isn’t hard to do the basic math and understand that Floyd’s far from assured that he’ll hear his name called in primetime this spring. With that type of variance in the first round, let’s take a closer look at the type of wide receivers that heard their names called in round one.
One of Mike’s assets is his physicality. He’s 6-foot-3, almost 230-pounds and on film looks every bit as physical as his size dictates. That said, Floyd isn’t likely to clock in with a blazing 40-yard dash time, making it’ll a little easier to group him with a segment of past round one wide receivers. Without elite speed, it’s pretty easy to look at the past few years and say that if Floyd is going in round one, it’ll be the bottom half of the round, a place where guys like Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Bowe went, receivers similar to Floyd in both size and speed.
Of course, it isn’t hard to look back at the recent history of Notre Dame skill players in the draft and wonder what that means for Floyd’s future. Whether it was Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen’s tumble down the board or someone like Brady Quinn, there’s a very real issue of Irish players being over-hyped on draft boards when they make their decisions. To Floyd’s credit, he’s taking the patient approach, and waiting to hear from the advisory board before he makes any decision.
“Right now it doesn’t come into my head,” Floyd said. “A lot of people ask, and my answer doesn’t change for anybody. I still say I don’t know what I’m going to do.”
As if the decision wasn’t hard enough, Floyd and the rest of the underclassmen will have to monitor the NFL’s stalemate for a new collective bargaining agreement, a negotiation that could have major implications on the rookie wage scale and whether or not there’s even NFL football in 2011. There’s a lot of bluster out there right now on what may or may not happen, but for a junior making a jump to the next level, there’s an unprecedented amount of uncertainty.
THE LEGACY
Floyd’s role in Irish lore likely doesn’t play a part in his decision to return to the Irish for his senior season, but if he does, you can all but pencil Floyd at the top of every career mark in the school’s receiving record books.
Right now, Floyd sits fifth in receiving yards and third in receptions in school history, marks that’ll be easily shattered if Floyd comes back for 2011. Floyd is only one touchdown catch behind record holder Jeff Samardzija with 26 on his career, one where he’s missed nine games because of various injuries. (Something NFL teams certainly notice.)
Those injuries and a turbulent three seasons in South Bend all will frame the legacy Floyd leaves behind at Notre Dame. Like his former teammates Tate and Clausen, it’s hard to argue against their statistical brilliance in their short careers. But Floyd would walk away from the Irish after just a so-so season individually, on top of a transition year for a team that clearly struggled to find an offensive identity.
The idea of a legacy for a 21-year-old college athlete is a dizzying proposition, and any status you’ll earn with an rabid fanbase won’t do anything to help pay the bills for both you and your family. (Unless you go the route of guys like Cam Newton, Reggie Bush, and Terrelle Pryor.) The Irish have been snakebit all the way back to Justin Tuck’s early departure, and Floyd’s return would be the first high-profile senior season since Brady Quinn’s.
THE FUTURE
Floyd returning to school likely means he thinks he can boost his draft stock after a resurgent senior season. And if that’s the decision he ultimately makes, it’s pretty easy to support it. Floyd’s averaging a career-low in yards-per catch, and his 10 touchdowns isn’t much of an improvement on his previous two seasons when you consider the games he sat out with injuries. Entering the 2010 season, Floyd was the primary focus of every defense that faced the Irish and his three 100-yard games are less than he put up his freshman season, where he had four.
In 2011, Floyd would return to an offense that loses only Chris Stewart from the Sun Bowl starting lineup, and welcomes back two quarterbacks with significant minutes triggering Brian Kelly’s spread attack. He’ll have Theo Riddick anchored in the slot, John Goodman and TJ Jones playing on the edge along with some talented freshman and Tyler Eifert (or potentially Kyle Rudolph) occupying defenses at tight end. Add to that equation a competent running game and it isn’t hard to see why Floyd could buoy his draft stock with a prolific senior season in an offense that’ll evolve in season two of Brian Kelly’s tenure.
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Still, if Friday is the last time we see Michael Floyd in an Irish uniform, he’ll leave behind a standard of hard work and dedication for his teammates.
“Michael Floyd is somebody that impacted our entire football team,” Kelly said. “He set a standard from my perspective, of how you want champions to practice and prepare. What he leaves is a standard I can point to moving forward: That’s how you prepare, that’s how you practice. Look at Michael Floyd.”
While it’d be fun to have Michael Floyd in the blue and gold for another autumn, you can’t blame him either way.
