Michael Floyd selected 13th overall by the Arizona Cardinals

4 Comments

There won’t be a familiar Notre Dame slide down any draft boards this year. Former Irish wide receiver Michael Floyd was selected 13th overall by the Arizona Cardinals, the second wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft. After deciding to come back to school for his senior season, Floyd was rewarded by the Cardinals and teams with fellow Minnesotan Larry Fitzgerald to bolster an Arizona receiving corps in need of a complimentary weapon.

Floyd is the highest-drafted Notre Dame player since Bryant Young went with the seventh-pick in the 1994 draft. He’s the highest drafted Irish wide receiver since Heisman Trophy winner Tim Brown went sixth in 1988.

“I could not be happier for Michael and his family,” Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly said. “I’ve said many times I have never coached a person as talented as Michael, and his selection tonight shows that. Michael’s work ethic and passion for football are unparalleled and fans of the Cardinals will love the productivity he’ll bring to Arizona’s offense.”

Floyd closes the book on his Irish career as the most prolific in Notre Dame history. He holds five career receiving records, numbers that could have been even bigger if he didn’t miss multiple games during his freshman and sophomore campaigns. Shaking the injury bug during his junior and senior season, Floyd played in a system that saw the Irish target Floyd downfield far less often.

While the system change depressed his statistics, it also likely helped turn Floyd into an undeniable first-round talent. Forced to play a more well-rounded game during his final two seasons and without an elite quarterback that could get the ball effectively downfield to him, Floyd became one of the best blocking wide receivers in the college game, and became a tremendous possession receiver to complement the downfield ability he showed during his first two seasons.

Floyd surprised many with his 4.42 forty-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. He also impressed multiple teams in interviews leading up to the draft, an important step after a DUI arrest last spring put his football career in jeopardy. But after sitting out a semester after an indefinite suspension from football by Kelly, Floyd was reinstated for his senior season and turned his life around while the spotlight was on him. The Cardinals repaid that hard work by investing their only pick in the first two rounds on the wide receiver, who was hoping to end up across from Fitzgerald, one of his boyhood heroes.

“When I got the call with the 602 number coming in, I wanted to jump for joy, but I played it cool,” Floyd said after during a conference call with reporters. “I talked to Larry and I know he wanted me there, but you never know. I’m just excited that I get the chance to be an Arizona Cardinal.”

 

Friday at 4: Forget about football, just this once, just this weekend

Getty Images
4 Comments

Hold on, I have always wanted to do this …

SOMEWHERE ABOVE MIDDLE AMERICA; SPIRIT AIRLINES FLIGHT 985 — Usually, such a self-serving dateline would be nothing but unnecessary and flattering self-flagellation. In this instance, however, it is to the point about to be addressed. (Also, it’s a Spirit Airlines flight, no humblebrag includes Spirit Airlines.)

Maybe if Notre Dame was not 7-0, not one of six Power Five undefeateds remaining and not No. 4 in the polls, this weekend would feel empty. Maybe if the Irish had not reached the off week with everything still possible, were not forcing their fans to discuss the dreams they usually do not dare voice outside the privacy of an empty car on a long commute, then these 14 days would feel idle rather than relaxing. Maybe if head coach Brian Kelly had not switched quarterbacks a month ago and thus not sparked Notre Dame to look significantly — undeniably, inarguably, one Pittsburgh-struggle away from overwhelmingly — better than it had in the first three weeks, then this would be a time to reassess the obvious flaws that had yet to spell ruin, inevitable as it would certainly seem.

But the Irish are on the brink of something, as much of a brink as anything can be with a month to go. Those generational dreams are more pertinent than most are familiar with. Kelly did make the change to junior Ian Book.

Beginning again Monday, the Notre Dame stress will rise to a level not felt since 2012, and even then, it was a team escaping trouble for as long as possible, not one embarrassing Stanford on both sides of the line.

The five weeks to come will include freak outs — don’t you dare, unfounded Twitter rumors, don’t you dare — and celebrations. They may well include the continued coalescence of USC, leading to concern clouding enjoyment of Thanksgiving’s cheesy potatoes. (Ahhhh, cheesy potatoes.)

An injury will lead to aggravation. A questionable play call will spark un-nuanced outrage. A correct-to-the-letter flag will be faulted for missing the spirit of the rule.

This is what awaits you come Monday.

Today is Friday.

So, for one weekend this fall, forget about football. Enjoy some time away from the TV, or at least leave it on just in the background and focus energy somewhere else. By no means do you need to clean the gutters, but has anyone ever been worse off for not watching Michigan at Michigan State? (12 ET; FOX)

This flight is to New Orleans to enjoy a bachelor party. It being scheduled for this particular weekend is no accident. The only coincidence was the survey of attendees happened to match the weekend the best man had already decided upon. The polling results were private; they were never going to be shared if they conflicted with the executive decision.

There will not be football on at this bachelor party, no matter if it is in a football-mad state filled with dreams of upsetting the national balance and ruining any semblance of order in the Playoff conversation. Good for Louisiana, for LSU, for Ed Orgeron. That is not a problem to be discussed around here this weekend. (And not while watching the Tigers host Mississippi State at 7 ET on ESPN.)

That is a problem for Monday.

Go, open your Friday at 4 beverage. Just like any week, you have earned it. But maybe do not worry about USC at Utah tomorrow night (8 ET; Pac 12 Network), even if that spread is ticking more and more toward the Utes.

As you read this, yours truly will be heading toward a nice Cajun dinner.

Midday Saturday, it’ll be a boat tour of the swamplands. There will be no television anywhere near, though the boat does come complete with a cooler filled with local beer.

Take a weekend off. Just this one.

And if you don’t, could somebody text me score updates for Clemson at NC State? Much appreciated. (3:30 ET; ESPN)

Big-Picture Mailbag: Wherein Notre Dame fans somehow worry

Getty Images
27 Comments

Notre Dame is undefeated, and for the most part, that is good enough. Yet, concern about the No. 4 Irish showed itself in this week’s call for mailbag questions through references to other programs, be they Pittsburgh, Alabama or Michigan. Yes, that is the first time in 2018 those three have been mentioned in the same breath. Maybe the first time this decade.

Let’s begin with the most recent Notre Dame victory and work our way toward ending with some philosophical Wolverines wonderings.

Brian Kelly shrugged off the difficulty the Irish had against the game plan Pitt put into place. But the concern is, of course, that it WORKED. The counterargument is that there were quite a few missed passes that would have changed things (dramatically) and quite a few missed blocking assignments that could have broken for us.

But doesn’t this just tell every other team on our remaining schedule what the blueprint is for containing the Irish? And if so, what is the next chess move for Kelly to counter it? — Mark H.

It worked? Notre Dame won, right? And the defense gave up just 242 total yards, one score and 4.0 yards per play, right? Right. Just making sure.

Pittsburgh’s method worked only to that extent; it was not enough. That is the first counter: Continue relying on the Irish defense.

The next thing to remember is teams take on their coaches’ dispositions. The Panthers follow Pat Narduzzi’s lead, and to a lesser extent, defensive coordinator Randy Bates. That results in a defense willing to sell out against the run when told to, even if doing so comes at the expense of the secondary. Not all other teams will have that success or the roster designed for it. The current iterations of Navy and Florida State, for example, very much do not, and USC needs to worry now with senior linebacker Porter Gustin out for the year.

His success sometimes makes it hard to remember: Ian Book is still a first-year starter with only five career starts under his belt. (Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images)

Lastly, some of this is overreaction forgetting the Irish can indeed counter this defensive strategy, and that will start with junior quarterback Ian Book. He was “antsy” and “skittish” against Pittsburgh, to use his own words. To offer a broader description, Book was nervous about any version of a pass rush. He had not yet faced a stacked box like that, and the first appearance of one reminded Book he is a first-year starter leading an unbeaten team toward the Playoff. If the moment did not get to him, some version of doubt did, be it in himself, the offensive line or the game plan.

Book spun away from not-yet-threatening pass rushes too often against the Panthers. Fortunately for Notre Dame, that should not be a difficult bad habit to break upon some film review. If Book realizes his happy feet actually got him into more trouble than they evaded, he may settle down when Northwestern — where Bates was defensive coordinator as recently as last year — tries a similar strategy. At that point, exploiting the minimalist secondary should be readily possible.

Losing a night of sleep after Virginia Tech may have affected the team’s performance against Pitt. Why doesn’t the team spend the night after a late away game? Would it be an NCAA violation? Is it just about cost? — Joseph B.

Notre Dame reportedly plans to do just that after the Navy game in San Diego kicks off at 8 ET. The flight back from southern California will also cover about 1,800 miles, compared to only 450 or so from Virginia Tech. That trip really was not very lengthy.

Given those November plans, it is obviously not an NCAA violation, but there is a logistics issue when the kickoff time is not announced in the summer. If the Lane Stadium festivities had ended up dampened by sunlight, then what would have been gained by staying the night? That kickoff time was not known until six days beforehand.

What, if anything, does sending clips of holding calls/penalties to the ACC do? So far, seen no results. — @sogdeaux

Let’s presume you are sitting at a table as you read this. Seems a reasonable possibility. If not, pretend.

Now, can you prove to me there is not a ghost under that table? Can you prove to me you have not seen any effects of Notre Dame sending in clips to the ACC pointing out missed holding calls?

It is very possible the Irish coaching staff would have sent in a dozen clips after the Pitt game if not for pointing out some holds missed at Wake Forest. Likely? No. But you cannot prove otherwise.

Notre Dame junior defensive end Julian Okwara will likely ask for an NFL draft evaluation this spring, but that is not a sure sign he heads to the next level after this season. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

That is the point of sending in the clips. No matter what, calls are going to be missed. These are part-time officials trying to keep up in a game that is going faster and faster with bigger and stronger athletes. It is an utterly thankless task. If Notre Dame can point out — this is strictly a hypothetical — junior defensive end Julian Okwara is often grabbed by the shoulder when he executes a swim move, then an official may be more apt to look for that grab when he sees Okwara begin that paddle motion.

Calls will continue to be missed, but the effect is the call that is made that otherwise would not have been, the ghost under the table you will never see nor even know exists.

With the season more than half over and plenty of empirical evidence at your disposal, can you handicap which seniors will be offered fifth years and who will likely accept? Similarly, which, if any, juniors are likely to enter the 2019 draft? — @kenjomanMcd

First, let’s ruminate on the wonders and bewilderments of technology. This rough draft is getting typed at an airport gate awaiting a flight south. Rather than pay for 90 minutes of shoddy wifi or unnecessarily use up hotspot data, the internet is disconnected. That makes itself clear in the lack of spell check in this particular Google Doc. Yet, somehow, the “2018 Depth Chart” Google Spreadsheet can be opened, although it has never been backed up on this computer.

All this is to say, that oddity is the only reason this question gets pondered right now, and it is also why it took genuine sounding out to spell minimalist earlier.

There is little difference between getting offered a fifth year and accepting it. If the former were to occur without the latter, word would never genuinely leak on that. Only eight current seniors have another year of eligibility available: quarterback Brandon Wimbush, receivers Miles Boykin and Chris Finke, tight end Alizé Mack, offensive lineman Trevor Ruhland, defensive lineman Micah Dew-Treadway, linebacker Asmar Bilal and defensive back Shaun Crawford.

The quicker question to ask is who does not come back. Wimbush heads that list. Even if an injury forced him back into playing time and he led the way to the Playoff, a happier final collegiate year will be found elsewhere, and Wimbush leaving for those pastures would open the gate for current freshman Phil Jurkovec to be no less than Book’s backup in 2019.

Dew-Treadway has given little reason to incur a fifth-year, especially with Notre Dame curating the concept of defensive depth previously unseen in these parts.

The other six would all return to starting and contributing roles, though there is some question to Mack getting approval for it, given his academic suspension in 2016.

As for early-departing juniors, no offensive player has shined enough to warrant consideration, and yes, that is a reference to receiver Chase Claypool. Defensively, cornerback Julian Love and defensive ends Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara could conceivably have decisions to make. Okwara in particular seems ripe for more development before heading to the NFL draft, but those other two may receive positive enough feedback to warrant strong pondering of collecting paychecks.

Do you see any assistant coaches leaving the Irish this year to jump to a head coach opening in college or an assistant coach position in the NFL? — Charles C.

The latter such move is not seen very often, Harry Hiestand aside. Complete staff continuity is also not seen often, as evidenced by the fact that Notre Dame’s coaching staff seemed ready to remain intact as Boykin raced to the end zone against LSU in the Citrus Bowl, and Brian Kelly still eventually had to replace Hiestand and defensive coordinator Mike Elko.

At the very least, defensive line coach Mike Elston is ready for a head coaching gig, has told Kelly that and has been groomed by Kelly and director of athletics Jack Swarbrick for that.

A few years ago, Kelly and Swarbrick led an unsuccessful effort to get then-running backs coach Tony Alford the head coaching job at his alma mater, Colorado State. If Elston spots an opening he would like, expect a similar full-court press  With Bowling Green already looking and Chuck Martin facing the prospect of his fifth season below .500 at Miami (OH), the possibilities for Elston will be there.

How about some talk about what ND can do between now and January to get ready to face Alabama in the semifinal? — Pat C.

Pat went on to list a thought about every Irish position group, which should pretty much offer the answer to his question. You don’t want ‘Bama. Ain’t no one outside of Louisiana want ‘Bama.

Oh, and by the way, just to start drilling this into heads in case it really does come to matter: The semifinals are not in January. They are Dec. 29.

For the new eligibility rules, do bowl games/postseason games count toward the limit of four? — @ChadComey

Yes. And before you ask, each Playoff game counts toward the total separately.

Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson has found his groove of late, powering the Wolverines into the Playoff conversation. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Would you be of the opinion that we need to root for Michigan or naw? — @IRISH_GL

This is not an attempt to avoid the question. It is an effort to show how tricky this calculus can be. Do you think Notre Dame will lose yet this year?

If not, then go ahead and root for Michigan. If the Wolverines were to go 12-1 to win the Big Ten, it should not affect the Irish. For this hypothetical, let’s presume Alabama and Clemson finish 13-0. The concern about Michigan is better stated as worrying not one, but two one-loss teams would get in ahead of 12-0 Notre Dame. If the Tide are 13-0, then there isn’t even a one-loss SEC team to insert into the hypothetical. Someone from the Big 12 would have to finish that round-robin-plus without losing again. Then, the debate would likely be about Texas (or Oklahoma or West Virginia) against Michigan. The Irish should be clear.

If expecting Notre Dame to lose, then a Wolverines loss may be helpful for the Irish cause, especially if it does not come against Ohio State. The way Michigan is playing, it could slip in ahead of 11-1 Notre Dame. You don’t like it, but it’s in play. If the Wolverines perhaps lost to Michigan State this weekend and then beat the Buckeyes, that would be the ideal setup, along with some Big 12 chaos, for the Irish coming out of Los Angeles with a close defeat.

Reading back on that thought process, the summarized logic indicates Notre Dame fans should root for a Michigan defeat. The Wolverines at 12-1 can do nothing but hurt an 11-1 Irish. Michigan at 12-1 does not impact undefeated Notre Dame, and there need not be fretting about the first undefeated Power Five team excluded from the College Football Playoff being the only one that does not need a conference to be considered a Power Five team.

Here’s one that’s stemming from a conversation with the #NDTwitterati … If you had a button that could eliminate Michigan football permanently, but also erases any trace of them from memory and history, do you press it? — @IrishSBender

Ever seen someone cut off their own nose? It’s not a good look. There is some phrase about spiting your face. It is referencing this.

Who first taught Notre Dame football? Michigan. So go ahead, press your red button, erase the Wolverines’ gridiron history. You’ll be losing Irish lore with it.

No. 4 Notre Dame’s defense spurs it past preseason big picture predictions

Getty Images
29 Comments

Looking through the first half of this preseason’s 40 predictions showed how much Notre Dame’s offense has changed with junior Ian Book starting at quarterback compared to initial expectations. Walking through the latter half, the defensive and big picture portion, shows …

21) Freshman defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin will manage at least eight tackles with 0.5 behind the line of scrimmage.
RESULT: The play of classmate Jayson Ademilola (seven tackles to date) may have always rendered this unlikely, but this projection went by the wayside for good and for certain when Franklin tore his quad from the bone in his first action, ending his season without a tackle.

22) The Irish will have two players with at least sacks.
23) Junior end Khalid Kareem (pictured at top, left) will lead Notre Dame in sacks.
24) Kareem will have more than eight sacks, the most by by someone in an Irish uniform since Stephon Tuitt’s dozen in 2012.
25) Speaking of 2012’s sacks, Notre Dame will match that season’s 34.
RESULTS: The spirit of all four of these was spot on, as the Irish pass rush has been more potent this season than any in recent memory. Even in 2012, when Notre Dame had Tuitt and Prince Shembo wreaking havoc, the overall effect paled in comparison to this year’s with senior tackle Jerry Tillery (seven sacks) leading the way, Kareem (4.5) making the biggest of plays and junior end Julian Okwara doing everything but notching a sack on each drive. Then come junior ends Daelin Hayes and Ade Ogundeji, not to mention Ademilola’s improving play, as well as his twin brother’s, end Justin.

Senior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery was essentially unblockable against Stanford, tying a Notre Dame record with four sacks. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

The actual grading of these predictions is varied. Between Tillery and Kareem, it is likely the Irish end up with two pass rushers combining for a dozen sacks. Kareem could still lead that charge — he is only Tillery’s four-sack performance against Stanford away — and he could still top eight. Even if Kareem does not break eight, Tillery should, and that was the underlying intention of the claim.

As for the team total, Notre Dame is on pace for 27 sacks, with 16 thus far. This is more a sign of the times than it is a sign 2012’s pass rush was better.

“We’re much more interested in quarterback hurries and getting them out of the pocket and getting them out of rhythm,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly said last week. “Today the passing game is a three-step passing game.”

Quarterback hurries are the most subjective of metrics, but being the one at hand, let’s compare 2018 to 2012 … Notre Dame is credited with 41 through seven games, including Okwara’s single-handed seven against Pittsburgh. In the run to 12-0 earlier in the decade, the Irish managed 45 quarterback hurries in 12 games.

The official record of these four projections is currently to be determined for all four, with the first likely to hit and the last likely to miss, leaving the two Kareem-specific speculations unknown yet. The underlying message of the four hits on three, though, if giving credit for such. Unfortunately, the ledger does not.

26) Notre Dame will give up more than 20 points three times, but its scoring defense will still allow fewer than 21.5 points per game, both being 2017’s marks.
RESULT: Threading the needle of such a specific dichotomy was going to be unlikely, yet, here we are. The Irish gave up 27 to Wake Forest — as hinted at — and 23 to Virginia Tech. All five remaining opponents average at least 23 points per game (Florida State) with Navy (28.0) and Syracuse (43.0) looming as the most-distinct threats to the Notre Dame defense, not to mention a bowl game against what is sure to be a high-powered offense, LSU possibilities notwithstanding.

Nonetheless, first-year defensive coordinator Clark Lea has schemed his way to an 18.71 points against average.

With 56 tackles, senior linebacker Te’von Coney (right) has led Notre Dame’s defense to outpacing even last year’s stellar unit. Coney has added 5.5 tackles for loss, the sack this pose celebrated, an interception and a fumble recovery in 2018. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

27) Again using last season as the initial measuring stick, the Irish will allow fewer than 369.2 yards per game. In fact, let’s lower it to 350.
RESULT: That number is currently at 340.9. Opponents would need to average 362.8 yards per game in the remaining five games to bring the season-long average above 350. That could happen, given they combine to average 388.8 yards per game through six games apiece. (The fact that all five remaining opponents have already had their bye week speaks both to the incongruent timing of Notre Dame’s and to a potential scheduling advantage in the second half of the season.)

28) Opposing running backs will catch at least three touchdowns of more than 20 yards.
RESULT: The specificity of this thought is retroactively surprising, but even if it had been vague, it would have been wrong. First of all, let’s give credit where credit is due: Senior rover Asmar Bilal has outperformed all expectations, proving to be a genuine defender and suited, at least well enough, to the hybrid position. He may not remain there next year, but that will be due to a team need rather than his own ill fit, as may have been previously expected.

Through seven games, the Irish defense has given up just two touchdowns of greater than 20 yards: a 23-yard run to Wake Forest quarterback/receiver Kendall Hinton and a 39-yarder to Stanford running back Bryce Love. That’s it. Again, kudos is deserved by Lea.

29) Freshman linebackers Shayne Simon and Bo Bauer will not preserve a year of eligibility. Freshman quarterback Phil Jurkovec will.
RESULT: Simon and Bauer have both exceeded the four-game barrier to preservation, while Jurkovec has appeared in just one game.  It would take two quarterback injuries for him to burn the season at this point.

Notre Dame junior safety Jalen Elliott’s greatest statistical contribution this season was two interceptions in the second week, but it was this pass breakup against Vanderbilt that may have saved an Irish victory. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

30) A Notre Dame safety will intercept a pass unlike in 2017.
RESULT: See junior Jalen Elliott, Ball State, twice.

31) Simon will make 10-plus tackles.
RESULT: A lack of comfortable leads combined with worthwhile play from Bilal have limited Simon to four tackles thus far. Let’s call that within range and leave this as to be determined.

32) Fifth-year linebacker Drue Tranquill and senior linebacker Te’von Coney will combine for 220 tackles.
RESULT: Currently at 102, the duo is on pace for 175 through 12 games. Stretching that to one bowl game raises it to 189. A Playoff run could jump it to 204. There just is not a viable reach for 220. Go ahead and call this wrong already.

33) The New York Yankees will not be swept in the American League Championship Series, guaranteeing Yankee Stadium hosts a game exactly one month before the Irish play the Orange there.
RESULT: If only the comma had been a period.

34) The best sporting event of the weekend before Thanksgiving in New York City will not be Notre Dame and Syracuse on Saturday, but rather it will be Connecticut and Syracuse rekindling Big East lore in Madison Square Garden that Thursday night.
RESULT: Obviously to be determined, but it would take something monumental to shift this take.

35) Nationwide win total unders … Texas Tech under 6.5, Washington State under 5.5, Arizona State under 4.5, North Carolina under 5.5.
RESULT: Texas Tech is already at 4-2 with Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor yet on the schedule. Mike Leach has proven to be a coach of absurd means in getting Wazzu to 5-1. The Fighting Herm Edwards started 2-0 but have gone 1-3 since to make that mildly interesting. And the Fighting Larry Fedoras would not reward anyone who actually made this wager because they cancelled a game due to Hurricane Florence, but the Tar Heels are unlikely to even reach five wins (S&P+ projects 3.2 wins), meaning the bet would have cashed no matter how they fared against Central Florida, which is to say poorly.

Considering the margins of these endeavors, 1-3 or even 2-2 does not count as a correct suggestion.

36) Nationwide win total overs … Virginia Tech over 8, Vanderbilt over 4.5, Northwestern over 6.5, Michigan State over 8.5, TCU over 7.5, Arizona over 7.5, Oregon over 8.5.
RESULT: If it was not for the Ducks, this might be an oh-fer, although the Commodores have hope of going from 3-4 to 5-7 if they can knock off not only Tennessee (for the third consecutive year), but also either Ole Miss or, more likely, Arkansas.

37) Notre Dame will not reach the top five at any point in 2018.
RESULT: These days, that should read, “No. 4 Notre Dame …”

38) The Irish will win more than 9.5 games.
RESULT: It is shy of bold to count this as correct, but for now it remains just likely. A 2-3 finish to this season would, however, be a collapse Kelly could not recover from.

39) Notre Dame will play in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day.
RESULT: If granting the logic it remains more likely than not the Irish lose a game this season, and not yet believing a one-loss Notre Dame would warrant Playoff consideration, then this could quickly become a 50/50 proposition between the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl.

40) At least 15 of these 40 will be wrong, the Prognosticator’s Paradox.
RESULT: If the trends continue as expected, these currently break down to a 17-15 record with eight unknowns. The 17th correct prediction is indeed No. 40 itself.

What is odd looking at these preseason thoughts is the Irish defense has been about as good as expected statistically speaking, yet it has felt more dominant than that, the sole reason Notre Dame held on against Michigan and Pittsburgh at the least, and arguably at Virginia Tech, as well, considering how that first half went.

It is that defense which has the Irish more in the national conversation than expected as the season enters its second half.

Revisiting predictions from Notre Dame’s preseason

Getty Images
19 Comments

Checking in on predictions after seven of 12 games is not as obvious as doing so after six, but Notre Dame’s idle week came a touch later this year, and these are the side effects. Fortunately, the first half of this preseason’s 40 predictions have fared well enough to still trot out at this uneven midway point.

These predictions are somewhat summarized. If wanting more context on any of them, take a look back at the August entry in full: 40 predictions, 1-20 with an offensive focus.

1) The combined point total for Michigan at Notre Dame will come in below the long-held 48-point over/under.
2) The Irish and Wolverines will not even break 41 points.
3) The only way that total breaks 48 is with multiple defensive and special teams touchdowns.

RESULT: Three-for-three right out of the gate, even giving some warning of Michigan’s 99-yard kickoff return touchdown.

Prediction No. 3 also included a reminder of the new kickoff rules, wherein a kickoff fair caught within the 25-yard line places the ball at the 25-yard line. Mentioning it was intended to keep the change on minds before it mattered, and it did when Notre Dame’s Chris Finke signalled for a fair catch at the 12-yard line on a kickoff with only 2:18 left. The stands booed the decision, not remembering Finke had just moved the Irish to the 25-yard line with a chance to run out the clock or, at least, drain Michigan’s timeouts.

This may be worth remembering in November if Notre Dame once again finds itself in a close game.

4) Senior kicker Justin Yoon will make the biggest kick of his life.
RESULT: This has not yet come to be, but it certainly looked possible last weekend until junior quarterback Ian Book’s 35-yard touchdown pass to take the lead with only 5:43 to go. If the Irish drive had stalled there, instead, the subsequent field goal attempt would have tied the Notre Dame record and outdone Yoon’s own by a yard.

5) Sophomore quarterback-turned-running back Avery Davis will attempt a pass on some variation of an unorthodox play.
RESULT: That has not happened and, frankly, given Davis’ recent quality and lack of quantity of playing time, it seems unlikely it does. Since this needs just one snap to become a correct prediction, though, let’s leave it as to be determined.

6) Irish running backs will have more catches than they did a year ago, then totaling 24 and led by Josh Adams’ 13 for 101 yards.
RESULT: To date, five backs have combined for 20 catches for 220 yards, led by sophomore Jafar Armstrong’s seven for 87 in only four games. For further context: Last year’s 24 gained only 134 yards. Mark this up as an almost certainly likely correct.

When Notre Dame sophomore running back Jafar Armstrong returns after the idle week from a knee infection that has sidelined him for three weeks, he can immediately set to bringing the Irish running game back toward 2017’s heights. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

7) While Notre Dame will not match last year’s prodigious rushing output of 3,503 yards and 269.5 averaged per game, it will not fall to the depths of 2013 and 2014. Averaging between 214.5 and 224.5 rushing yards per game sounds about right. A mobile quarterback deserves credit for some of that reduced regression.
RESULT: Even before the quarterback shift benching senior Brandon Wimbush, this was going to be wrong; the Irish averaged 164.7 rushing yards per game in their first three contests. For that matter, even before last week’s paltry 80 yards against Pittsburgh, this was going to be wrong, averaging 195.7 before that. As it stands, the current 179.1 average is very unlikely to jump the needed 35 yards.

8) Finke will match his career totals of 16 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
RESULT: Finke already has 25 catches for 305 yards and a score, so let’s call this one correct, and let’s follow up that judgement with a confession: This prediction was nearly followed by a caveat along the lines of, “but not by much.” The intention was to set the bar for Finke to contribute, but not to be a featured part of the offense. Through three games, that had somewhat born itself out, with 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown putting Finke on pace for 40 receptions, 404 yards and four scores.

The spirit of that unspoken qualifier was wrong, but predictions are not measured on the spirit of what was not said.

9) Two freshman receivers will outperform then-freshman Michael Young’s 2017 of four catches for 18 yards and a score.
RESULT: Kevin Austin has managed three catches for 39 yards, so he just needs that touchdown, but it is unlikely this reaches fulfillment unless Joe Wilkins has a notable one-day showing.

10) Junior receiver Chase Claypool will not finish second in receptions or receiving yards, as he did in both last season.
RESULT: Claypool is currently fourth in catches with 23 and third in yards with 261. In the similar vein as that Finke clarification, this Claypool projection was a subtle way of saying 2018 would be boom-or-bust for Claypool. That has been the case, but to such an aggravating extent, one can already expect another offseason of storylines discussing Claypool’s inevitable and supposed maturation.

Fifth-year tight end Nic Weishar’s on-field contributions have come exactly as expected, rarely but in impactful moments. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

11) Fifth-year tight end Nic Weishar will catch at least three touchdowns, placing no lower than second among Notre Dame tight ends in the category. Last year Weishar caught nine passes, two for scores. That percentage could comically rise in 2018.
RESULT: Weishar leads the tight ends with two touchdowns to date, doing so on three catches. This is indeed somewhat laughable.

12) Wake Forest junior receiver Greg Dortch will score twice against Notre Dame.
13) Stanford senior running back Bryce Love will equal that.
RESULT: The two combined for one touchdown, which speaks to Irish defensive coordinator Clark Lea’s game planning to take away what an opponent usually relies upon to inflict damage.

14) Virginia Tech will be a primetime matchup.
15) The Hokies’ “Enter Sandman” entrance will be memorable, but not as daunting as the entrance of Mariano Rivera to the same tune.
RESULT: Never have there been two more surefire predictions.

16) Book will attempt fewer than 75 passes, his total of a year ago.
RESULT: Book has completed 103. This was wrong.

17) Sophomore offensive lineman Josh Lugg will start multiple games. Notre Dame’s offensive line enjoyed remarkable health last season.
RESULT: The logic to this prediction has proven valid with fifth-year left guard Alex Bars’ torn ACL creating a massive hole on the line, but it has not been Lugg who stepped in. Senior Trevor Ruhland has taken much of that load, and even among the sophomores, it does not seem Lugg will be the first choice. Irish head coach Brian Kelly has mentioned Aaron Banks repeatedly as Ruhland’s potential tag-team partner, a dynamic seen only momentarily through two games without Bars.

18) Multiple freshman offensive linemen will play thanks to the NCAA’s shift regarding eligibility concerns.
RESULT: Three factors indicate this will end up wrong. Close home games against Ball State, Vanderbilt and Pittsburgh removed chances for spot appearances from reserve linemen. Among the freshmen linemen, only Jarrett Patterson traveled to Virginia Tech. Notre Dame has just one true home game remaining, meaning only Patterson, who has already seen some time, will be available in the other four, rather than the three other freshmen linemen.

19) Former Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer will not see much success this season.
RESULT: Kizer had his chance to prove this wrong. He did not, turning the ball over twice in needed action against the Chicago Bears in the season opener.

20) The Florida State weekend will include a 30th anniversary celebration of Notre Dame’s 1988 title team.
RESULT: There has not been much of one yet, and that is the only remaining true home game, so this seems a correct result waiting to happen.

MIDSEASON VERDICT: 7-5 with eight yet to be determined. The trends point toward 11-7 with two very much still unknown.

More than those numbers of relative success, what stands out is how the change to Book invalidated one prediction and compromised the underlying intention of another. His play changes that much of what was expected from the Irish before the season.

Similarly, even among offensive predictions, the aggressive scheming from Lea shows through. These are the stories of Notre Dame’s year, Book and Lea, no matter what was expected in August.