Broken streaks. Stolen slogans. Biggest game in a decade. It’s the kind of hype most Notre Dame fans didn’t see possible heading into this season, but with the Irish at 7-0 and No. 5 in the country, just about every fan under the Golden Dome is hoping for this magical ride to continue.
If it will, Notre Dame will have to pull off their most impressive road win in a decade. Beating Bob Stoops’ Sooners, a squad that has an outrageous 79-4 record at home, will be a herculean task. To give us a better idea of what the Irish are up against, I’ve brought in the Oklahoman’s Jason Kersey, who covers the daily beat on the Sooners. In an incredibly busy week, Jason has gone above and beyond for us, and he’s laid out some really strong stuff.
Let’s get right down to it.
1. Before the season, this game looked like a good one. Now it looks like a great one. Most had Oklahoma pegged as an elite team, not many had Notre Dame there. Bob Stoops called this the biggest game his team’s had since 2000. Could that possibly be the case? Just how fired up are the Sooners (and their fans) for this game?
I definitely think — especially from the fans’ perspective — the Notre Dame game is the most anticipated home game since Nebraska in 2000. That game had a special feel to it because the Sooners were nationally relevant again after the largely forgettable 1990s. In Bob Stoops’ second year, the Sooners were ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings, and Nebraska came in at No. 1. Add in the classic Oklahoma-Nebraska, Barry Switzer-Tom Osborne rivalry from the Big Eight era, and it just made the whole thing such a special moment in Sooner football history.
OU has been in a couple top-10 battles since then — the most memorable coming when the 2008 Sooners beat No. 2 Texas Tech in a rout, which ultimately vauled the Sooners into the national title game — but the reason Nebraska in 2000 and Notre Dame in 2012 are being compared is mostly because of history. This Saturday’s game was already going to be special for OU fans because it pits traditional powers, the Irish snapped Bud Wilkinson’s 47-game win streak and the fact that Notre Dame football hasn’t visited Norman since 1966.
But the excitement surrounding this game has increased exponentially because of how good Notre Dame has played so far. With OU having one loss, this game is viewed by everyone around the program as a huge opportunity to knock off a top-5 team on national television and jump all the way back in the national-title conversation.
OU players really don’t seem to know or care all that much about OU’s 1-8 record against Notre Dame, the busted win streak or the Fighting Irish’s 13 national titles. They’re fired up to face a great team at home with so many of their 2012 goals on the line.
2. Notre Dame feels battle-tested after beating seven legitimate opponents to start the season, even if some of those teams have disappointed. The Sooners have played three mediocre teams (UTEP, Florida A&M, and Kansas ) looked really good against Texas and Texas Tech, while losing to a K-State team that was flying under the radar.
The common thought is that the Sooners are playing their best football at an opportune time. Is that the case? If so, what did this team need to straighten out?
Yes, Oklahoma is absolutely playing its best football right now, and yes, it couldn’t come at a better time. With a No. 8 BCS ranking and a pretty tough remaining schedule, the Sooners are right in the thick of the BCS race, which seemed crazy to even think about after the first three games of the season. Less than two months ago, this very team was clinging to a 10-7, fourth-quarter lead on UTEP for crying out loud.
The early-season struggles can be attributed to a lot of things, but I think the biggest causes were inexperience at offensive line and receiver, which each caused QB Landry Jones to have some early problems, and adjusting to Mike Stoops’ tweaked defensive system.
Entering the Notre Dame game, though, OU’s defense looks excellent. The receivers have developed quickly, and the offensive line has jelled. The Sooners’ line lost two seniors — center Ben Habern and guard Tyler Evans — to season-ending injuries right around the time fall camp started. Those guys had 59 career starts between them.
3. Oklahoma’s defense has been solid with Mike Stoops back in Norman. It certainly isn’t the Sooners’ biggest or most physical group, but the secondary seems to be a strength and they’ve been pretty good against the run. Is Notre Dame’s resurgent running game its best shot to put up points on the Sooners? Is there a match-up that looks good for the Irish?
The defense has really been pretty good for most of the season, with a few breakdowns here and there early on. UTEP running back Nathan Jeffery had a big game in the opener. Kansas State had success in the fourth quarter that allowed the Wildcats to win, but for the first three quarters, OU really handled Collin Klein and the KSU offense pretty well.
The biggest difference in the OU defense between its first three and last three games has been takeaways. The Sooners only forced one turnover in the first three, but over the last three, they’ve got nine takeaways.
The secondary has definitely been a strength. Mike Stoops’ scheme really funnels plays to the defensive backs, which is why they are many of OU’s leading tacklers. Juniors Aaron Colvin and Tony Jefferson have been the defense’s top players this season.
Considering how OU’s 2011 season ended, it’s crazy to think how good the secondary is playing right now. That very unit — and most of those very players — was largely responsible for OU’s three losses last year.
I think Notre Dame will give itself its best chance at success by finding ways to stay on the field and control the clock with the run game. With how good this defense is playing right now, it won’t be easy, but it definitely isn’t impossible.
4. On the other side of the ball, Landry Jones has played a lot of football. Oklahoma is scoring a ton of points, doing it with an efficient running game and a strong passing game. Obviously, K-State had some success against the Sooners’ offense, but where do you see Josh Heupel and Jay Norvell attacking Notre Dame’s defense? Will they utilize the hurry-up?
Kansas State ’s defense was successful against OU because it forced Landry Jones into mistakes, which he’s shown a propensity to make when he’s put under that kind of pressure. He’s looked much, much better and more poised the last three weeks in the pocket, even under pressure, but Notre Dame is an entirely different animal with that big-time defensive front.
I don’t think the Irish have seen anything quite like OU’s no-huddle, pass-heavy offense this season, though, so I think Sooner coaches will try to take advantage of that and keep Notre Dame on its heels. If OU can shock-and-awe Notre Dame early with some big plays — which they’ve been capable of in both the pass and run games — I would think that gives the Sooners a big edge for the rest of the game, especially with the home crowd. Not saying that will be easy at all, because I know how good the Irish are defensively, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see OU dial up some home-run plays early.
5. I was surprised when I saw the gambling line open up with the Sooners a commanding 9.5 point favorite. The Irish certainly haven’t been winning with style points, but does this seem right to you? What’s the key to an underdog Irish team beating Oklahoma ? How do the Sooners avoid the upset?
I honestly wasn’t very surprised by the line. Notre Dame is a top-5 team and has absolutely earned that ranking by winning all its games through a pretty tough schedule, and an Irish win definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
But right now, Oklahoma is playing at such a high level on offense, defense and in special teams — last week vs. Kansas, OU returned both a kick and a punt for touchdowns in one game for the first time ever — that I just don’t see the Sooners losing Saturday.
I think the most likely scenario resulting in a Notre Dame win is if it follows Kansas State ’s model of putting major pressure on Landry Jones, making him uncomfortable in the pocket and forcing some turnovers. That could possibly keep the game low-scoring enough for Notre Dame to win it.
On offense, the Irish need to run the ball effectively, convert lots of third downs and control the clock. Brian Kelly said during his news conference Tuesday that Oklahoma is extremely tough to beat when it is scores lots of points and makes big plays. As good as they’ve been defensively, I’m just not convinced the Irish have enough experience against this offensive attack to limit it the way Notre Dame would need to in order to leave Norman with national-title hopes still intact.
For more from Jason, check out all his excellent work in sports section of the Oklahoman, the Sooners Sports Blog, or his Twitter feed @JasonKersey.