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Spring stock report: Defense

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With tidbits coming out of Saturday’s open-to-the-media scrimmage, the state of the Irish roster is slowly coming into focus with just two practices left before the annual Blue-Gold game. While a two-hour workout will likely lead us on as many wild goose chases as it does clear up questions, that’s what spring is all about—matching up what eyes see and ears hear, all while knowing it could all go up in smoke by the time the pads go back on in August.

Regardless, the reports are mostly favorable after watching the Irish scrimmage in Loftus over the weekend. And our stock report focuses on a few key contributors, most moving from the sideline to the starting lineup.

 

STOCK UP

Nyles Morgan. That Morgan looked like a dominant, dynamic presence in the middle of the Irish defense might be the biggest story of the spring. It certainly is a story Brian Kelly didn’t think was being discussed enough.

“There’s not been a lot of talk about Nyles Morgan, which is kind of interesting,” Kelly said over the weekend. “Here’s a guy who didn’t play much last year and stepped into the middle linebacker role. There’s always a lot of talk about Coach VanGorder’s system and it’s so complicated and you’ve got to communicate, and no one’s really talked about Nyles and it’s because he’s been that good this spring.”

Catching up via social media, you’d be hard-pressed to find a report that didn’t rave about Morgan’s performance on Saturday. Pair that with his media availability last week—Morgan looked and sounded like a guy not short on confidence—and it’s looking like life after Joe Schmidt and Jaylon Smith won’t be all that bad, especially once Greer Martini returns from injury.

Productivity sounded like the name of Morgan’s game on Saturday. Here’s a quick tidbit on Morgan from Bryan Driskell’s practice report at BlueandGold.com:

Junior linebacker Nyles Morgan was arguably the team’s most impressive performer during practice. There is no doubt he was the top performer on defense. Morgan was dominant during the inside run drills by quickly diagnosing the play, beating blockers to the point of attack and arriving at the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage. Morgan spent the entire practice around the football.

His instincts against the run were impressive, as was his ability to diagnose between run and pass during team periods. On a sprint out during the final team period, quarterback DeShone Kizer was rolling to his right and Morgan read the play perfectly, flew through his gap and blew up running back Justin Brent, who was the secondary contain blocker. Morgan also blew up quarterback Malik Zaire on a speed option play in which he made a decisive read and used his top-notch speed to quickly arrive into the backfield.

Morgan was very good in coverage. He quickly reads crosses and takes good angles to the ball. He had good depth on his zone drops and played the ball well. The only time he got beat was by sophomore tight end Alize Jones on a red zone corner route, but Kizer missed long.

That should be music to the ears of Irish fans, and a huge piece of the 2016 defensive puzzle moving forward.

 

Drue Tranquill. Notre Dame’s bionic man could turn into a Swiss Army Knife next season. Tranquill will be set loose next season, all over the field if reports are a glimpse into the future.

Tranquill’s versatility might overshadow the fact that he’s played his way into an every-down role as a starting safety. But there sounds to be some comfort growing in coverage for Tranquill (not necessarily his strong suit thus far) and an expanded knowledge base can’t hurt as the Irish put him all over the field trying to exploit mismatches.

Still mid-recovery from his second ACL injury in as many seasons, Tranquill needs to keep his speed up, especially if he’s going to be asked to cover receivers in space. But a tackling machine on a defense that definitely needs his consistency, it’s been a great spring for the rising junior.

 

Shaun Crawford. Another ACL recovery that looks to be making great progress, Crawford might be playing his way into a starting cornerback job in addition to serving as the team’s nickel back.

The loss of Nick Watkins to a broken arm opened up reps for Crawford at cornerback across from Cole Luke and he seems like the quickest fit for the job. But that might take him away from the all-important nickel job, an inside-cover slot that allows Crawford to use his surprising physicality and his nose for the football.

It won’t take long for comparisons to Antoine Winfield or perhaps, more currently, the honey badger Tyron Mathieu. But the fact that Crawford’s even out on the field right now making up ground should be good enough.

“I’ve exceeded expectations I had for myself by just being able to play in the (Blue-Gold) game,” Crawford told Irish Illustrated’s Tim Prister. “I think I’ve only missed one game my entire time playing football, so it was really hard missing an entire season, even missing practice.”

 

Isaac Rochell. Approaching his second season with defensive line coach Keith Gilmore, Rochell could take a big step forward in 2016, an awards-level caliber player who could wreak havoc from the big defensive end position.

It shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Rochell was the defense’s third-ranked player, according to PFF College. But until he steps up his pass rush game, he’ll be a somewhat one-dimensional end, especially on a defense crying out for someone to get to the quarterback.

That improvement was evident, per multiple reports from practice. The physical skills are there—Rochell was spotted out-quicking Sheldon Day during some of UND.com’s practice reports last offseason. But adding some versatility to his pass rush game would be a huge addition to the defense, and a credit to Gilmore.

 

STOCK DOWN

Nick Watkins. After being the beneficiary of some late-season injuries in 2015, it’s Watkins who now has to work from behind entering the upcoming season. A broken arm that should be healed in six weeks cost him the second half of spring practice, a difficult blow dealt to a talented cornerback who looked to have a leg up in the race for KeiVarae Russell’s open job.

Summer workouts—run by a strength staff that now has former Kelly lieutenant (and Buffalo head coach) Jeff Quinn on it—will be critical in Watkins development. The Irish need a cornerback who can hold up in man coverage. Watkins seems like the best option, especially if it allows Crawford to freestyle and serve as the team’s primary nickel back.

 

Jerry Tillery. This might be a harsh assessment, but the days of being a precocious freshman are over. Tillery is coming off a debut season where he spent the final game watching after an off-field rule violation, and needs to add some urgency to a career most have high hopes for.

With great size and ridiculous athleticism, Tillery still looks the part of an All-World defensive lineman. But any comparisons to Stephon Tuitt will be blown away if Tillery doesn’t make a huge leap in 2016. Remember, Tuitt went from a mostly anonymous freshman (who also missed a game because of a rule violation) to an All-American sophomore who challenged for Notre Dame’s sack record.

Fair or not, that’s the bar set for Tillery—especially with Sheldon Day gone and Tillery slotted for the three-technique. It’s not impossible. But that big move hasn’t happened this spring.

 

NEED MORE INFORMATION

Jarron Jones. Another defensive lineman who is absolutely critical to the defensive structure, Jones has had an up-and-down spring practice as he continues his recovery from a knee injury that kept him off the field for all but 14 plays against Ohio State.

While the Irish only need him healthy come the first Sunday of September, Kelly talked about the challenges Jones has faced this spring. He also knows what kind of player he has once the bright lights go one.

That hesitancy is understandable. But a full-strength and fully-motivated Jones is an impact defender. Pair him with a top-of-his game Tillery and the interior of the Irish defense could be one of the more dynamic in the country.

 

Max Redfield. Don’t kick dirt on Redfield just yet. Nor should you read too much into the ascent of early-enrollee freshman Devin Studstill. A freshman making a big move during spring drills is one thing. A true freshman being trusted on the back-end of the defense during game situations is another.

Redfield has all the tools needed to be a productive college football player. He was done no favors by playing in a bowl game as a true freshman. But he’s entering his third season under Brian VanGorder. That means the mental lapses that have plagued his game need to be eliminated.

We’ll see if the timeshare this spring was a motivational tactic or a kickstart of the eventual transition to the Studstill era come August. Until then, I expect Redfield’s final season in South Bend to be a surprising positive.

 

Four-star CB Isaiah Rutherford chooses Notre Dame over Pac-12 possibilities

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During a season in which one recruiting class worth of defensive backs is leading the best Notre Dame secondary in recent history, the No. 5 Irish are setting themselves up for a similar phenomenon a few years down the road. With the Saturday evening commitment of consensus four-star cornerback Isaiah Rutherford (Jesuit High School; Carmichael, Calif.), Notre Dame now has four defensive backs as part of the recruiting class of 2019, with two of them four-star prospects.

A visit for Notre Dame’s season-opening win against Michigan led to Rutherford, the No. 9 cornerback in the country, the No. 14 prospect in California and No. 83 in the country overall per rivals.com, picking the Irish over Oregon and Cal. He also held offers from the likes of Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and USC.

“It was unbelievable,” Rutherford told Blue & Gold Illustrated after his September visit. “It gave me chills a little bit because I’m not used to being around those big crowds. I was really impressed by the whole thing.

“[Defensive coordinator] Clark Lea had them flying around. The cornerbacks, the safeties and everyone was looking really good. I was really impressed by it all.”

The 19th commitment in the class, Rutherford joins rivals.com four-star safety Litchfield Ajavon (Episcopal H.S.; Alexandria, Va.), rivals.com three-star cornerback K.J. Wallace (Lovett; Atlanta) and consensus four-star safety Kyle Hamilton (Marist; Atlanta).

The quartet will have to match the standard set by Notre Dame’s current juniors, with cornerbacks Julian Love and Troy Pride and safeties Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman setting the tone for a defense that has allowed only 19.5 points per game this season. Pride’s impact, in particular, may have been underscored during the 19-14 Irish victory against Pittsburgh on Saturday in the hours before Rutherford’s commitment. With Pride sidelined by an ankle sprain, Notre Dame’s reserve cornerbacks struggled for significant portions of the afternoon.

No. 5 Notre Dame wins ugly, but ‘a win’s a win’

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SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Whatever could go wrong for No. 5 Notre Dame largely did Saturday afternoon against Pittsburgh. A Panthers kickoff return for a touchdown? Check. An interception created primarily by a Pittsburgh defensive lineman hitting the quarterback as he threw? Check. Two trips to the red zone yielding only field goals? Check.

What went right for the Irish? They won, 19-14.

“We faced adversity today,” fifth-year center and captain Sam Mustipher said. “There were a lot of things that didn’t go our way and the team responded. We came out of here with a win. It’s hard to win week to week in college football.

“Pitt has taken a lot of people down over the time I’ve been playing football at Notre Dame.”

Indeed, the Panthers (3-4) have taken down a top-five opponent in each of the last two seasons, and they looked ripe to do it again Saturday using a tried-and-true recipe. They controlled the ball — eating up nearly 10 minutes of first-quarter game clock in marching to their first touchdown — and playing an aggressive defense that stopped the Irish run game in its tracks. Notre Dame (7-0) finished with only 112 rushing yards (sacks adjusted) on 35 carries, an average of 3.2 yards per attempt.

“[Pittsburgh] played exactly the way they needed to play to keep this game in the manner that they did,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly said. “We still found a way — giving up a kickoff return, throwing two picks and not scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

“If you told me all those things are going to happen and we still found a way to win the football game, I’d be pretty excited.”

Part of Notre Dame’s reduced rushing attack came from hardly having the ball; the Irish had just 10 possessions if not counting the three snaps in victory formation to end the game.

All that meant Notre Dame needed its passing game to bail it out and remain undefeated, reaching 7-0 for the second time under Kelly. Junior quarterback Ian Book completed 26 of his 32 passes for 264 yard and two touchdowns, matched by two interceptions. Somehow, despite completing 81.25 percent of his passes for 8.25 yards per attempt, it felt like a pedestrian day for Book, which speaks to just how well he has played through four starts this season. His two touchdowns in the final 18 minutes — including one with fewer than six minutes remaining to take the lead for the first time of the afternoon — turned an average showing into one that was good enough.

“[Book’s] pocket awareness was not great in the first half,” Kelly said. “Had a nice conversation with him in the second half. He settled down nicely, but I think this is just maturation.”

Whatever it was, it led to a win, a win to keep the Irish without blemish entering their idle week, a win the Panthers had deprived national title contenders of in recent years.

“A win’s a win and these football games happen,” Book said. “There’s no point in freaking out when you have some time on the clock, and we’ve been there before, so we didn’t want to make it a bigger deal than it was.”

PLAY OF THE GAME
It stood out not only for its game-changing realities, giving Notre Dame its first lead with only 5:43 remaining, but also for how much it differed from Book’s long offerings just a week ago. At Virginia Tech, he routinely, even only, overthrew receivers on deep routes. With the game on the line Saturday, Book connected with senior receiver Miles Boykin for a 35-yard score, the pass itself traveling 40 yards through the air and hitting Boykin in stride hardly a step before the goal line.

“[Boykin is] really rangy, so just got to put it up there and give him a chance,” Book said. “That’s something I was focusing on all week was giving our guys a chance, not overthrowing.”

Book also showed off his arm earlier with a deep crossing route to senior Chris Finke, hitting Finke a couple feet before the sideline and out of reach of a trailing defender for a 26-yard gain, the sole chunk play of Finke’s six catches for 62 yards.

“The Virginia Tech game showed [Book] in a bad light,” said Boykin, who finished with four catches for 84 yards. “Usually he doesn’t overthrow us like that. In practice he’s always on the money. I think it was one bad game, one bad instance, and today he was back on it.”

PLAYER OF THE GAME
Quarterback hurries are an inexact stat, one measured subjectively and inconsistently. What cannot be gauged inaccurately is the effect junior defensive end Julian Okwara had on the final minutes Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh ran 10 plays while trailing, all at the end of the fourth quarter. Okwara provided pressure on Panthers sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett on half of them, forcing rushed throws, eliminating possible reads and nearly single-handedly ending Pittsburgh’s hopes for dramatics.

“He gets quarterbacks uncomfortable,” Kelly said. “They move their feet. They change their launch point, their eyes drop. Things just make them uncomfortable.”

Unofficially, Okwara was credited with six tackles and seven quarterback hurries, though his one tackle for loss may have been most impressive. With Pittsburgh driving in the fourth quarter, Notre Dame blitzed both inside linebackers up the middle, dropping Okwara into coverage. Pickett connected with running back Darrin Hall in the flat, only to have Okwara immediately tackle him for a loss of three yards on a third down.

“His ability to drop [into] coverage and make a play like that on a running back, he’s a pretty special player,” Kelly said. “He does a lot of things that sometimes don’t show up on the stat sheet, per se, but he’s one dynamic player.”

TURNING POINT OF THE GAME
The Irish first found the end zone with a 16-yard Book pass to junior receiver Chase Claypool late in the third quarter. That cut the Panthers lead to 14-12, and Kelly opted to go for two, rolling Book out to target Boykin in the flat. The sharp angle of the throw left little margin for error and a resulting incompletion.

The failed conversion attempt kept the pressure on Notre Dame. It also raised some eyebrows, seemingly early to be chasing those points. Why do it? The math said to.

“The analytics provided us the information that said to go for two in that situation,” Kelly said.

Similar logic led the Irish to consider going for a fourth-and-2 near midfield early in the fourth quarter. After a Pittsburgh timeout, Kelly opted to punt, and fifth-year punter Tyler Newsome sent it for a touchback. Kelly expects to hear from his numbers department about the inefficiency of his own second-quessing.

“I’ll get a note from our analytics people on Monday telling me that I was incorrect and I should have gone for it,” he said. “The sense I had in the game, however, is that they weren’t going to go 80 yards on us, so I was not going to give our defense a short field to operate. So I went against our mathematicians in that situation.”

The Panthers faced a similar decision on the ensuing drive, also opting to punt, also sending it for a touchback. The net 30-yard field position change did not stop Notre Dame from scoring to take the lead, indicating Pittsburgh would have been better served going for the fourth-and-5.

STAT OF THE GAME
Excluding sacks but including scrambles, the Irish ran 35 times Saturday, more than last week at No. 24 Virginia Tech (30) but otherwise a season-low. Kelly thought that run-pass balance should have been even more titled toward Book’s 32 pass attempts (plus three sacks).

Once Notre Dame started taking advantage of the openings in the secondary provided by the Panthers planting a seventh defender in the box, it started moving the ball a bit.

“Started hitting us on some slants,” Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi said. “Hitting [Claypool] on the seam in there. We struggled to stop that route in the last couple drives.”

How much more should the Irish have thrown the ball? Quite a bit, per Kelly.

“Maybe we were a little stubborn,” he said. “We should have thrown the ball a little bit more. This should have been maybe 45 to 50 times throwing the football. It was that stark in terms of the pressure that they were putting on the running game today.

“We want to try to stay balanced. We want to try to stay true to who we are. Today, they weren’t going to allow that to happen.”

QUOTE OF THE NIGHT
“I don’t know a team that’s won the national championship that hasn’t had to come from behind at some point in the season or play in a close game. That happened to be today for us.” — Notre Dame fifth-year linebacker and captain Drue Tranquill.

SCORING SUMMARY
First Quarter
1:26 — Pittsburgh touchdown. Qadree Ollison 9-yard run. Alex Kessman PAT good. Pittsburgh 7, Notre Dame 0. (17 plays, 88 yards, 9:43)

Second Quarter
4:34 — Notre Dame field goal. Justin Yoon 22 yards. Pittsburgh 7, Notre Dame 3. (10 plays, 44 yards, 3:34)
0:05 — Notre Dame field goal. Yoon 41 yards. Pittsburgh 7, Notre Dame 6. (12 plays, 42 yards, 3:27)

Third Quarter
14:46 — Pittsburgh touchdown. Maurice Ffrench 99-yard kickoff return. Kessman PAT good. Pittsburgh 14, Notre Dame 6.
2:09 — Notre Dame touchdown. Chase Claypool 16-yard pass from Ian Book. 2-pt conversion failed. Pittsburgh 14, Notre Dame 12. (8 plays, 71 yards, 2:51)

Fourth Quarter
5:43 — Notre Dame touchdown. Miles Boykin 35-yard pass from Book. Yoon PAT good. Notre Dame 19, Pittsburgh 14. (5 plays, 80 yards, 1:43)

No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Who, what, when, where, why and by how much?

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WHO? No. 5 Notre Dame (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh (3-3).

WHAT? Heading into the season, a 6-0 Irish start was not exactly expected. Notre Dame beating all three of Michigan, Stanford and Virginia Tech looked to be a tall task. But if granting the concept of an undefeated first half to the season, then this weekend’s matchup with the Panthers very much would have fit the definition of a “trap” game, one of perhaps two on the second half of the schedule. (The other being Syracuse on Nov. 17 at Yankee Stadium, a topic for another day.)

Whether or not that assessment of Pittsburgh has changed, this remains the best possibility for the Irish to overlook an opponent this season. They had struggled too much when they went to Wake Forest to look past the Demon Deacons. The bye week will allow for the necessary focus on Navy’s triple-option. The Orange actually look like one of the tougher games remaining on the schedule.

If Notre Dame is to suffer an unfortunate and unexpected letdown, it will most likely be against the Panthers, in no small part because they have managed upsets of a top-five team in each of the last two seasons.

WHEN? 2:30 ET with kickoff scheduled for 2:41. This is the second of three times the Irish will fill this unconventional time slot, also garnering a slightly-early kickoff when at Yankee Stadium.

Beforehand, once again this season, there will be a military flyover. This time courtesy of the Air Force.

WHERE? Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind., where the earlier kick should fit perfectly with the day’s high temperatures of about 50 degrees with the sun out. It may be a bit brisk for the perfect fall day, but only by a touch.

NBC will have the broadcast, with the game streaming online here.

Per usual, NBC Sports Gold is available to international fans.

WHY? Because not every game can be against a top-25 opponent, nor should they be. In some respects, this lines up well with the Irish idle week. Notre Dame gets one more game in before the break, obviously meaning there is one fewer afterward. In terms of the November slog, that may prove to be a big deal.

RECENT HISTORY
Irish head coach Brian Kelly is 4-1 against Pittsburgh, with the average margin of victory in those four wins a meager 5.5 points.

Kelly is also 3-2 in home games preceding bye weeks during his eight years at Notre Dame. The losses came in his debut season to Tulsa in a year that finished 8-5 and in the 2016 debacle to Stanford. This year feels a bit different than those.

BY HOW MUCH?
Let’s begin with some facts: As of a very early Saturday morning check, the Irish are favored by 21.5 points with a combined point total over/under of 54.5.

The Panthers gave up 51 and 45 points to Penn State and Central Florida, respectively. With junior Ian Book at quarterback, Notre Dame has averaged 46.3 points per game over the last three weeks.

Book and the Irish scored that prolifically against the Nos. 111, 36 and 63 defenses in the country as it pertains to scoring. Pittsburgh is ranked No. 99, and that was before losing its best defender this week with a season-ending injury to linebacker Quintin Wirginis, the Panthers leader in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks and forced fumbles.

Under Kelly, Notre Dame has scored 40 or more points at least three teams in each of the last four seasons. If removing the 2016 eyesore, the Irish have reached the threshold at least four teams a year. This season, Notre Dame scored 56 at Wake Forest and 45 at Virginia Tech. The most points scored by the Irish under Kelly came in 2015 against Massachusetts in a 62-27 victory.

Now let’s jump to some conjecture: If the Irish are to reach 40 at least four times in 2018, doing so this weekend will probably need to be part of the sequence. Three of Notre Dame’s remaining opponents are tied at No. 58 in scoring defense with 25.2 points per game allowed, while Navy gives up 33.4 (No. 101) and USC 26.2 (No. 67).

Notre Dame 49, Pittsburgh 10.
(5-1 in pick; 2-4 against the spread, 3-3 point total.)

INSIDE THE IRISH READING:
Yoon’s record, freshmen contributions & DL health
Notre Dame’s Opponents: Remaining schedule quite average at 17-16
Notre Dame’s four possible paths to Playoff
And In That Corner … The Pittsburgh Panthers, owners of two top-5 upsets the last two seasons
Things To Learn: A blowout would do more than just boost Notre Dame’s ego
Friday at 4: A ‘2’-fold look at Notre Dame’s 2012 hypotheticals sparked by a Pittsburgh possibility

OUTSIDE READING:
Ian Book starring for Irish after being lightly recruited
Underdog mentality doesn’t sit well with Pitt
Pitt offensive line files order of protection vs. Notre Dame
The whole recent history of so-so Pitt teams stunning national title contenders
No. 12 Michigan, No. 15 Wisconsin meet in marquee matchup
Louisville in “no position” to buy out Bobby Petrino, per board member
Niumatalolo says QB is not the problem with Navy offense
On this Alabama team, Tua Tagovailoa isn’t the MVP
The Bottom 10’s favorite losers and those who cover them

Friday at 4: A ‘2’-fold look at Notre Dame’s 2012 hypotheticals sparked by a Pittsburgh possibility

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What if I told you Notre Dame reached the BCS National Championship Game in 2012 only because of a referee’s mistake? What if I told you it would not have mattered in the College Football Playoff era?

The first of those two questions is hard to refute. In the second overtime of an eventual 29-26 triple-overtime victory against Pittsburgh, the then-No. 4 Irish needed a missed call — an objective one at that, black-and-white, no gray area involved whatsoever — to avoid gifting the Panthers first-and-10 at the 11-yard line.

Both Bennett Jackson and Chris Brown attempted to block Pittsburgh’s (missed) field goal attempt in the second overtime. Both wore No. 2 in doing so, a clear and obvious infraction and one that went uncalled. It does not take much in the way of mental gymnastics to figure making that call correctly would have led to a Panthers victory soon thereafter, be it by touchdown or by a made field goal from senior Kevin Harper, who finished 20-of-27 that year, never reaching a third extra period.

That weekend held something in common with this one: Notre Dame was coming off a three-possession road victory at a feared venue against a top-25 opponent.

“Whatever I did (to prepare for Pittsburgh then), I probably didn’t do a very good job,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly said this week. “I’m not pulling anything that I did that week. I’m sticking with what our preparation has been, and the guys have done a really good job because it’s really how you reach the group you have in front of you right now more so than thinking about what the group was about back in 2012.

“We’re going to stick with the group we have and keep working on what we’re doing now.”

It is hard to envision Notre Dame reaching the top-two with that loss on its ledger, not when eventual No. 3 Florida’s sole loss was by one possession against Georgia (who finished at No. 7 in the BCS standings) and end-of-year No. 4 Oregon’s only fall was in overtime against Stanford (No. 6).

Why bring this up? Because of the second tag to this non-existent ESPN “30 for 30” trailer. A one-loss Irish likely would have still made a four-team Playoff.

Only five teams finished with one loss or fewer in 2012: Notre Dame, some other team, Florida, Oregon and Kansas State. In that order, they made up the top five of the final BCS rankings. To reach the Playoff, all the Irish would have needed was to finish ahead of the Wildcats. Looking at the BCS formulas now, it is hard to believe that would not have happened.

Kansas State was behind Georgia in both human polls considered (the USA Today Coaches’ poll and the Harris Poll) and tied with the Cardinal, and ahead of the Ducks, in the computer rankings at No. 4. There is no reason to think any of that would have changed as it pertains to the Wildcats — it is conceivable Stanford may have fallen a touch in correlation with Notre Dame’s drop.

Considering how human polls have always functioned, the timing of the Irish loss would have actually worked in their favor. Whether or not Notre Dame’s résumé would have been viewed more favorably than Kansas State’s (it should have been), the Wildcats suffered their only loss two weeks later in their season finale at unranked Baylor. For that matter, it was not even close, 52-24. The Irish could have tumbled below Kansas State in the human polls for two weeks, but certainly would have moved back into theoretical Playoff position with the Wildcats’ toes stubbed.

A Big 12 Championship Game victory over then-No. 23 Texas would not have even given Kansas State a proverbial “13th data point.” The Wildcats played only 11 regular season games.

Meanwhile, the BCS computers looked so favorably upon the Irish that it is hard to imagine them falling past Kansas State there, either. The deserved loss to Pittsburgh would have sent Notre Dame past Florida and perhaps Alabama, but probably no further.

Such a scenario would have left the Irish with … a semifinal matchup against the Tide.

This is all to point out the world may not come to a crashing halt if Notre Dame loses a game in the second half of 2018 — a Playoff berth may remain tenable simply due to the natural and inevitable attrition of each fall — and to acknowledge the comedy of how little would have changed if a Playoff existed six years ago and the referees noticed the blatant penalty in that second overtime.

For context:
Notre Dame’s notable wins in 2012: Sept. 15 at Michigan State, 20-3; Sept. 22 vs. eventual No. 18 Michigan, 13-6; Oct. 13 vs. eventual No. 6 Stanford, 20-13 in overtime; Oct. 27 at eventual No. 11 Oklahoma, 30-13.
Florida: Sept. 8 at eventual No. 9 Texas A&M; 20-17; Oct. 6 vs. eventual No. 8 LSU, 14-6; Oct. 20 vs. eventual No. 10 South Carolina, 44-11; Nov. 24 at eventual No. 12 Florida State, 37-26. Lost to eventual No. 7 Georgia on Oct. 27, 17-9.
Oregon: Sept. 22 vs. Arizona, 49-0; Oct. 6 vs. Washington, 52-21; Nov. 3 at USC, 62-51; Nov. 24 at eventual No. 13 Oregon State, 48-24. Lost to eventual No. 6 Stanford on Nov. 17, 17-14 in overtime.
Kansas State: Sept. 22 at eventual No. 11 Oklahoma, 24-19; Oct. 20 at West Virginia, 55-14; Oct. 27 vs. Texas Tech; 55-24; Dec. 1 vs. eventual No. 23 Texas, 42-24. Lost at Baylor on Nov. 17, 52-24.