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Monday’s Leftovers & Links: If Notre Dame is 33-to-1 for the title, what does that actually mean?

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It was a simple enough conversation with a sports fan, albeit a hockey nut who only occasionally devotes time to football and is staunchly against gambling. Engaged to a Notre Dame alum, the question was, do the Irish have an actual chance at winning the national championship this year?

Rather than respond with an inaccurate “No” or an imprecise “Yes,” the odds were offered.

“Well, Vegas has Notre Dame at 33-to-1,” I said from memory, pulling up the rest of the listings to offer a more thorough answer. “That’s tied with LSU and Michigan State, behind 12 other teams.”

To a casual football fan devoid of wagering knowledge, that nonsense was most useless of all. The improvised search for ground to stand on led to an entertaining rabbit hole of finding other 33-to-1 scenarios, providing them as parallels.

“Here, we’re in southern California, the Angels have 33-to-1 odds of winning the World Series, even with Shohei Ohtani likely out for the year.” Note: Ohtani’s injury is one of the most-disappointing sports stories of 2018, perhaps our current frontrunner. More pertinent note: The Angels are currently 4.5 games out of a playoff spot.

“The World Cup is coming up, and you know soccer better than I do,” a statement true of the majority of the world. “Croatia is listed at 33-to-1, just behind Uruguay at 28-to-1.” That tidbit actually resonated, casting the Irish as akin to a pipe dream. It also led to a discussion which resulted in one more fan for Belgium this World Cup cycle devoid of the United States. The Red Devils are far from a traditional power, is clad in argyle fashion and hails from a country known for producing some enjoyable beverages. What more could a fan want?

“What about the NFL? You follow that more closely, especially as a Dallas Cowboys fan.” We’ll abandon the ensuing direct quotes to preserve a PG-rating, but suffice it to say the receiver-less Cowboys, the quarterback-less Denver Broncos and the running back-less Oakland Raiders are all listed at 33-to-1 to win the Super Bowl this season.

Of course, being 2018, with gambling on the rise and politics always on the conversational horizon, it was also mentioned Oprah Winfrey is listed at 33-to-1 to win the 2020 presidential election.

All this gives better color and context to how sportsbooks see Notre Dame in 2018. It may be within reason the Irish win the national title, but it is considerably more unlikely than the simple numbers may make it seem.

It also serves as an entryway and excuse to now provide your weekly reading …

But before that, consider this a humble request for any mailbag questions that may provide the hook for next week’s “Leftovers & Links,” or perhaps even lead to a specific article. Send them to insidetheirish@gmail.com. Of course, entering them in the comments below is always an option, but those often get lost in time, if not also discussed in comment responses long before addressed with a headline.

Thanks in advance.

INSIDE THE IRISH READING:
Notre Dame lands a punter; adds (another) late kickoff
No. 69 Aaron Banks, offensive tackle
No. 57 Trevor Ruhland, offensive lineman
No. 57 Jayson Ademilola, defensive tackle, consensus four-star incoming freshman
No. 55 Jonathan Bonner, nose tackle
No. 54 John Shannon, long snapper
No. 53 Khalid Kareem, defensive end
No. 53 Sam Mustipher, center and captain

OUTSIDE READING:
Irish make the grade, but Brian Kelly hedges on Dexter Williams’ status for Notre Dame
Deon McIntosh set to transfer to East Mississippi junior college
Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson’s future eligibility uncertain
Notre Dame WR C.J. Sanders transferring to SMU
Houston adds fifth Power Five grad transfer in Notre Dame’s Nick Watkins
Alabama punter Jay Bramblett commits to Notre Dame
What will it take for USC to be a powerhouse again ($)
C.J. Prosise is on the roster bubble in Seattle

Notre Dame’s recruiting class gets an offensive skill player, consensus three-star RB Kyren Williams

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Notre Dame finally has an offensive skill player in the recruiting class of 2019 (again). Consensus three-star running back Kyren Williams (St. John Vianney High School; St. Louis) committed to the Irish on Thursday, joining and following four offensive linemen just as he will certainly hope to while actually in college.

Including those linemen and Williams, the Notre Dame class now has 15 commitments, but only the one running back among quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end possibilities. The modifier again is required in the lede because consensus four-star quarterback Cade McNamara (Demonte Ranch H.S.; Reno, Nev.) originally committed to the Irish before stepping away from that pledge in early March.

Even without a dynamic playmaker, the class had risen up recruiting rankings.

That should now not only continue but be a bit more legitimate.

Williams chose Notre Dame over a lengthy offer list, headlined by Michigan, Stanford and his homestate Missouri. Part of his allure to schools in general and specifically the Irish is his pass-catching abilities. Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chip Long’s ideal running back can motion out of the backfield and be deployed as a genuine receiving threat, thus creating a myriad of possibilities in two-back sets. That is one of the driving reasons junior Tony Jones is considered the top running back entering 2018; he is a more viable receiver than senior running back Dexter Williams.

Kyren Williams visited campus this past weekend.

Notre Dame 99-to-2: No. 39 Jonathan Doerer, kickoff specialist

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Listed Measurements: 6-foot-3, 200 pounds
2018-19 year, eligibility: Sophomore with three seasons of eligibility remaining, including 2018.
Depth chart: Doerer will presumably handle kickoff duties to allow senior placekicker Justin Yoon to focus on the uprights.
Recruiting: Doerer’s de-commitment from Maryland to pledge to Notre Dame the weekend before National Signing Day came shortly after the Irish began focusing their pursuit on the kicker, a somewhat surprising recruitment considering Yoon had, at that point, two full years of eligibility remaining.

CAREER TO DATE
Doerer saw action in seven games last season with mixed results. His debut against Boston College consisted of three kickoffs yielding the Eagles an average field position of their own 30-yard-line, buoyed by a kickoff out of bounds.

He recovered only somewhat from his shaky debut two weeks later late in the blowout of Miami (OH), sending two of his five kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks.

2017: 32 kickoffs, nine touchbacks, one out of bounds.

SPRING
Doerer never came up this spring. Part of the reasoning for the coming indoor practice facility — to be completed next summer — is to allow for more springtime work for the specialists. Only two or three of Notre Dame’s spring practices were outdoors this year, and the current indoor facility’s ceiling is too low for a kicker like Doerer to properly work on hang time and placement.

He did convert a 20-yard field goal and one extra point in the Blue-Gold Game.

WHAT WAS PROJECTED A YEAR AGO
“Expect Doerer to handle kickoffs from the outset and retain that duty until/unless it goes awry. Yoon’s injury concerns should be in the past by September, but allowing him to focus on placekicks could hold value for Notre Dame. Hence, [Irish head coach Brian] Kelly welcomed the chance to fill a scholarship slot with Doerer.”

2018 OUTLOOK
Doerer arrived at Notre Dame praised for his ability to send deep kicks high with hang time. It is a unique skill, albeit one needed less and less as the NCAA and the NFL increasingly try to diminish the high-speed collisions of kickoffs.

As a freshman, Doerer eventually proved his ability to handle the specialty duties by pinning Wake Forest returners inside the five-yard line six of nine times, with the other three landing as touchbacks. The Demon Deacons couldn’t risk the ball bouncing away from the end zone, but fielding a kickoff at the three-yard line after it has decent hang time is, and indeed was, a recipe for poor field position.

No longer. The NCAA has now adopted a rule wherein such a kickoff could be fair caught and the ball would be subsequently placed at the 25-yard line. There is no longer anything to gain from lofting a kickoff to the two-yard line rather than simply blasting it out of the end zone.

Doerer will still be asked to do the latter, but the uniqueness of his abilities has been reduced drastically.

DOWN THE ROAD
Both Yoon and fifth-year punter Tyler Newsome will be out of eligibility after this season. Doerer will almost certainly take over as the placekicker, and working as the punter could reinvigorate some of the pertinence of his skillset. Pinpointing a punt out of bounds at the four-yard line does not incur a penalty like it does with a kickoff. Instead, it entirely alters an opposing offense’s strategy.

NOTRE DAME 99-to-2:
No. 99 Jerry Tillery, defensive tackle, senior
No. 98 Ja’Mion Franklin, defensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 97 Micah Dew-Treadway, defensive tackle, senior
No. 95 Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 94 Darnell Ewell, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 91 Ade Ogundeji, defensive end, junior
No. 89 Brock Wright, tight end, sophomore
No. 88 Javon McKinley, receiver, junior
No. 87 Michael Young, receiver, sophomore
No. 86 Alizé Mack, tight end, senior
No. 85 George Takacs, tight end, early-enrolled freshman
No. 85 Tyler Newsome, punter and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 84 Cole Kmet, tight end, sophomore
No. 83 Chase Claypool, receiver, junior
No. 82 Nic Weishar, tight end, fifth-year senior
No. 81 Miles Boykin, receiver, senior
No. 80 Micah Jones, receiver, early-enrolled freshman
No. 78 Tommy Kraemer, right guard, junior
No. 76 Dillan Gibbons, offensive lineman, sophomore
No. 75 Josh Lugg, offensive lineman, sophomore
No. 74 Liam Eichenberg, starting left tackle, junior
No. 72 Robert Hainsey, right tackle, sophomore
No. 71 Alex Bars, left guard and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 70 Luke Jones, offensive lineman, incoming freshman
No. 69 Aaron Banks, offensive tackle, sophomore
No. 68 Jarrett Patterson, offensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 60 Cole Mabry, offensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 57 Trevor Ruhland, offensive lineman, senior
No. 57 (theoretically) Jayson Ademilola, defensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 56 John Dirksen, offensive lineman, incoming freshman
No. 55 Jonathan Bonner, defensive tackle, fifth-year senior
No. 54 John Shannon, long snapper, junior
No. 53 Khalid Kareem, defensive end, junior
No. 53 Sam Mustipher, center and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 52 Bo Bauer, linebacker, early-enrolled freshman
No. 47 Kofi Wardlow, defensive end, sophomore
No. 45 Jonathan Jones, linebacker, junior
No. 44 Jamir Jones, defensive end, junior
No. 42 Julian Okwara, defensive end, junior
No. 41 Kurt Hinish, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 40 Drew White, linebacker, sophomore
No. 33 Shayne Simon, linebacker, incoming freshman
No. 24 Tommy Tremble, tight end, incoming freshman

MEDICAL EXEMPTION
No. 35 David Adams, linebacker, sophomore

OUTGOING TRANSFER
No. 11 Freddy Canteen, receiver, outgoing transfer

Medical issues force out LB David Adams, bringing Notre Dame to 85 scholarships

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Thus ends any concerns about Notre Dame exceeding the 85 scholarships allowed by the NCAA in 2018. The Irish dropped to the mark not with the bang of a dismissal or an unexpected transfer, but with the whimper of the medical exemption of sophomore reserve linebacker David Adams, announced by Adams via Twitter late Tuesday evening.

“It absolutely kills me to walk away from football, my true love,” Adams posted. “However, these are circumstances that I cannot control. I’ve prided myself on my work ethic and have spent countless hours perfecting my craft to be the best player I could and can be.

“I need very specific and deliberate rehab and training to get my body back to where it once was and beyond. Coach [Brian] Kelly and Notre Dame have been very supportive throughout all of this.”

Adams detailed a lengthy list of injuries, including concussions, a surgery on each shoulder, knee surgery, torn ligaments and continued chronic ailments. He will remain on scholarship at the University and be a part of the football program in some capacity but will not count toward the roster’s limit.

“My return to football is currently unknown.”

Considering Adams played his entire senior season of high school football with a torn UCL in his elbow suffered in the season opener, it is safe to assume these injuries became too much to overcome on any tangible timeline. Otherwise, he would have. Adams put off the surgery to repair that elbow until after the Under Armour All-American game, not wanting to diminish that experience in any way.

“I only missed 1 game (in high school) due to have [sic] a very bad case of the Flu,” Adams wrote. “I prided myself on always being ready for every practice and game. On Friday nights when the lights came on, I was always ready to go.

“I only know one way to play the game and that is as violent and fast as humanly possible.”

Adams did not see any action last season, partly a result of that injury and partly a result of the Irish having a trio of experienced linebackers eating up the vast majority of snaps. In that vein, a look at what Adams’ 99-to-2 entry would have looked like, set to be published Thursday …

No. 35 DAVID ADAMS

Listed Measurements: 6-foot-¾, 222 pounds
2018-19 year, eligibility: Sophomore with four seasons of eligibility remaining, including 2018.
Depth chart: Adams would have been competing for third-string practice snaps with classmate Drew White and freshmen Bo Bauer and Jack Lamb at either interior linebacker position.
Recruiting: A rivals.com three-star recruit, Adams chose Notre Dame over offers from Florida, LSU, Michigan and Michigan State, among others. The Under Armour All-American was rated the No. 18 linebacker in the country and the No. 8 prospect in Pennsylvania by rivals.com.

CAREER TO DATE
Adams saw no action his freshman season, preserving a year of eligibility.

SPRING
Adams was not discussed in spring practice, but a variety of injuries keeping him sidelined would explain that.

WHAT WAS PROJECTED A YEAR AGO
“Adams should not expect to see much playing time on defense this season. More of a run-stopping linebacker than one ready to drop into coverage, he fits more into the role currently filled by [Nyles] Morgan than anywhere else. Backing up Morgan is not a position that will lead to much, if any, playing time.

“… Adams will have a prime chance to start as a sophomore. His instincts indicate he will fit the Morgan role. The only question will be if he fits better than [current-junior Jonathan] Jones or White. Even if one of those two earns the starting nod, Adams will be a primary backup.”

2018 OUTLOOK
To some degree, it is hard to project if a healthy Adams had a chance at much playing time this season or if the consistency of Jones and the position change of Jordan Genmark-Heath knocked him too far down the depth chart no matter what. It can be presumed the latter’s move from safety occurred not only to better serve his skillset, but also to patch a gap in the two-deep. Again, though, that hole may have existed, at least in part, due to Adams’ injuries.

Either way, fifth-year Buck linebacker Drue Tranquill ended any possibilities of Adams starting this season when Tranquill moved inside from rover during the offseason.

DOWN THE ROAD
Both Tranquill and senior Mike linebacker Te’von Coney will be out of eligibility after this season, meaning Adams would have had a ripe chance to push for a starting gig next season. Along with White, Jones, Bauer and Lamb, he presumably would have ended up some piece of a rotation in 2019.

That said, Bauer and Lamb arrived a semester early highly-touted and carrying greater expectations than had ever been anticipated from Adams. Former defensive coordinator Mike Elko recruited Bauer and Lamb with his system in mind, a system kept in place by new Irish defensive coordinator Clark Lea, who daylights as the linebackers coach. Adams may have seen significant playing time in 2019, but the current freshman duo was due to pass him by at some point in the future.

NOTRE DAME 99-to-2:
No. 99 Jerry Tillery, defensive tackle, senior
No. 98 Ja’Mion Franklin, defensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 97 Micah Dew-Treadway, defensive tackle, senior
No. 95 Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 94 Darnell Ewell, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 91 Ade Ogundeji, defensive end, junior
No. 89 Brock Wright, tight end, sophomore
No. 88 Javon McKinley, receiver, junior
No. 87 Michael Young, receiver, sophomore
No. 86 Alizé Mack, tight end, senior
No. 85 George Takacs, tight end, early-enrolled freshman
No. 85 Tyler Newsome, punter and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 84 Cole Kmet, tight end, sophomore
No. 83 Chase Claypool, receiver, junior
No. 82 Nic Weishar, tight end, fifth-year senior
No. 81 Miles Boykin, receiver, senior
No. 80 Micah Jones, receiver, early-enrolled freshman
No. 78 Tommy Kraemer, right guard, junior
No. 76 Dillan Gibbons, offensive lineman, sophomore
No. 75 Josh Lugg, offensive lineman, sophomore
No. 74 Liam Eichenberg, starting left tackle, junior
No. 72 Robert Hainsey, right tackle, sophomore
No. 71 Alex Bars, left guard and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 70 Luke Jones, offensive lineman, incoming freshman
No. 69 Aaron Banks, offensive tackle, sophomore
No. 68 Jarrett Patterson, offensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 60 Cole Mabry, offensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 57 Trevor Ruhland, offensive lineman, senior
No. 57 (theoretically) Jayson Ademilola, defensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 56 John Dirksen, offensive lineman, incoming freshman
No. 55 Jonathan Bonner, defensive tackle, fifth-year senior
No. 54 John Shannon, long snapper, junior
No. 53 Khalid Kareem, defensive end, junior
No. 53 Sam Mustipher, center and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 52 Bo Bauer, linebacker, early-enrolled freshman
No. 47 Kofi Wardlow, defensive end, sophomore
No. 45 Jonathan Jones, linebacker, junior
No. 44 Jamir Jones, defensive end, junior
No. 42 Julian Okwara, defensive end, junior
No. 41 Kurt Hinish, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 40 Drew White, linebacker, sophomore
No. 33 Shayne Simon, linebacker, incoming freshman
No. 24 Tommy Tremble, tight end, incoming freshman

MEDICAL EXEMPTION
No. 35 David Adams, linebacker, sophomore

OUTGOING TRANSFER
No. 11 Freddy Canteen, receiver, outgoing transfer

Notre Dame 99-to-2: No. 40 Drew White, linebacker

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Listed Measurements: 6-foot-¼, 225 pounds
2018-19 year, eligibility: Sophomore with four seasons of eligibility remaining, including 2018.
Depth chart: At least somewhat due to a foot injury, White (above, on right) fell down the depth chart this spring. Junior Jonathan Jones entrenched himself as the backup Mike linebacker behind senior Te’von Coney, while sophomore Jordan Genmark-Heath moved from safety late in the spring and immediately positioned himself as the backup at Buck behind fifth-year Drue Tranquill. At best, White is in the mix with early-enrolled freshmen Jack Lamb and Bo Bauer on the defense’s third-string.
Recruiting: A consensus three-star recruit, White chose Notre Dame from a lengthy offer list including the likes of LSU, Michigan and Ohio State.

CAREER TO DATE
White saw no action his freshman season, preserving a year of eligibility.

SPRING
White never came up in conversation this spring, though that certainly traces in part to his foot being in a boot with crutches at his side for much of the stretch.

WHAT WAS PROJECTED A YEAR AGO
“Every tackle White records on defense should register with some amount of surprise. There are simply too many established veterans ahead of him for White to see much, if any, playing time this season on that side of the ball.

“But that does not mean a year spent preserving eligibility is on the horizon. It does not even mean White will not log tackles.

“Notre Dame’s lack of defensive depth stood out in spring practice whenever the view turned to special teams. Most pertinently, Irish special teams coordinator Brian Polian lamented the dearth of available bodies for his kick and punt coverage units. White could be a prime candidate to help out in those regards, and given his penchant for finding the ballcarrier, he could tally as many as 10 tackles, which, given only a smattering of chances, is actually a notable figure.

“The transfer of junior Josh Barajas (to FCS-level Illinois State) does open an opportunity for White to see some mop-up duty at linebacker, but sophomores Jonathan Jones and Jamir Jones (no relation) would theoretically be ahead of White in those spots.”

2018 OUTLOOK
When Tranquill moved to the interior role of Buck linebacker, he greatly reduced the chances of White seeing time this season. Rather than Jones or one of the freshmen earning starting honors and White working as the backup, each of those roles was knocked down a rung, not to mention Genmark-Heath joined the fray.

All that is to say, White should see time on special teams this season, but that may end up the extent of his work.

DOWN THE ROAD
Part of White’s fall down the depth chart is a credit to the linebackers coming in behind him. Bauer and Lamb — and in a different respect, early-enrolled Ovie Oghoufo and incoming freshman Shayne Simon — were brought in by former defensive coordinator Mike Elko and new defensive coordinator (and linebackers coach) Clark Lea. Elko and Lea knew what they were looking for to fit their system. They targeted Bauer and Lamb and Co. with that in mind.

Could White move back up the depth chart? Of course. Coney and Tranquill will be at the next level in a year, and even if Jones and Genmark-Heath establish themselves as the backups du jour, that is still a big step from proving worthy of a starter’s workload. White will have that chance next offseason, albeit alongside the two frontrunners, the current class of freshmen and a few more in the recruiting class of 2019 (starting with consensus four-star linebabckers Osita Ekwonu).

NOTRE DAME 99-to-2:
No. 99 Jerry Tillery, defensive tackle, senior
No. 98 Ja’Mion Franklin, defensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 97 Micah Dew-Treadway, defensive tackle, senior
No. 95 Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 94 Darnell Ewell, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 91 Ade Ogundeji, defensive end, junior
No. 89 Brock Wright, tight end, sophomore
No. 88 Javon McKinley, receiver, junior
No. 87 Michael Young, receiver, sophomore
No. 86 Alizé Mack, tight end, senior
No. 85 George Takacs, tight end, early-enrolled freshman
No. 85 Tyler Newsome, punter and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 84 Cole Kmet, tight end, sophomore
No. 83 Chase Claypool, receiver, junior
No. 82 Nic Weishar, tight end, fifth-year senior
No. 81 Miles Boykin, receiver, senior
No. 80 Micah Jones, receiver, early-enrolled freshman
No. 78 Tommy Kraemer, right guard, junior
No. 76 Dillan Gibbons, offensive lineman, sophomore
No. 75 Josh Lugg, offensive lineman, sophomore
No. 74 Liam Eichenberg, starting left tackle, junior
No. 72 Robert Hainsey, right tackle, sophomore
No. 71 Alex Bars, left guard and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 70 Luke Jones, offensive lineman, incoming freshman
No. 69 Aaron Banks, offensive tackle, sophomore
No. 68 Jarrett Patterson, offensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 60 Cole Mabry, offensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 57 Trevor Ruhland, offensive lineman, senior
No. 57 (theoretically) Jayson Ademilola, defensive tackle, incoming freshman
No. 56 John Dirksen, offensive lineman, incoming freshman
No. 55 Jonathan Bonner, defensive tackle, fifth-year senior
No. 54 John Shannon, long snapper, junior
No. 53 Khalid Kareem, defensive end, junior
No. 53 Sam Mustipher, center and captain, fifth-year senior
No. 52 Bo Bauer, linebacker, early-enrolled freshman
No. 47 Kofi Wardlow, defensive end, sophomore
No. 45 Jonathan Jones, linebacker, junior
No. 44 Jamir Jones, defensive end, junior
No. 42 Julian Okwara, defensive end, junior
No. 41 Kurt Hinish, defensive tackle, sophomore
No. 33 Shayne Simon, linebacker, incoming freshman
No. 24 Tommy Tremble, tight end, incoming freshman
No. 11 Freddy Canteen, receiver, outgoing transfer