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Friday at 4: 40 Predictions, 1-20 with an offensive focus

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A year ago this preview piece remembered a freshman year Canadian roommate who gave one of the simplest and most cutting reviews ever offered of a piece of writing.

“You shouldn’t have started with ‘I think.’ It made your point weaker.”

Well, Mr. Maple Leafs Fan, I think your wedding last weekend was more fun than I expected. I think it was worth spending more than 24 hours in Columbus, Ohio, despite no news coming of a certain Buckeyes investigation. And I think I actually enjoyed eating dinner with two recent Tennessee graduates. Conversations with them and a few Ohio State folks will, in fact, inform certain projections seen in the second half of this series next week.

So there, you married PhD, sometimes “I think” works out just fine, doesn’t it?

With that in mind, I think …

1) Maxing out one’s credit cards in a West Virginia sportsbook on the Notre Dame vs Michigan point total over/under makes all the sense in the world, which inevitably means it will lead to garnished wages. Currently bookmakers have that number at 48 points with a bit of incentive to take the under.

2) How confident might that bet be? The Irish and Wolverines will not even break 41 points, falling a full touchdown short of that current mark.

3) The only way it breaks 48 is with multiple defensive and special teams touchdowns. Both defenses are talented enough to make that happen, but both doing so seems unlikely. That is where the new kickoff rules will be noticed: A kickoff fair caught within the 25-yard line places the ball at the 25-yard line.

It will reduce opportunities for special teams scores. As a collective society of football fans, we’ll notice the change the first weekend, maybe even the first month. By midseason, though, the casual remote-holder will have largely forgotten about the shift toward safety.

4) Notre Dame senior kicker Justin Yoon will make the biggest kick of his life. That may not come against Michigan, but it will become a reality by the end of the season.

5) Remember receiver John Goodman’s incomplete pass to start the fourth quarter at Oklahoma in 2012? That game is remembered as a dominant 30-13 victory, but the final period began with only a 10-6 Irish lead, though Notre Dame was driving deep into Sooner territory. Goodman’s pass toward TJ Jones felt like it hung in the air forever. It had, after all, been five years since Goodman quarterbacked his high school team to an undefeated regular season. Two pass attempts in 2010 had not kept his arm lively.

Enter sophomore quarterback-turned-running back/receiver Avery Davis. At some point this year, he will throw a pass, be it on a trick snap or his own read option or a double pass. It will be a breath-holding three seconds. Perhaps this is simply the voice of a hope, a dream, a want for entertainment.

6) Irish running backs will have more catches than they did a year ago, totaling 24 and led by Josh Adams’ 13 for 101 yards. This was thought even before Davis and sophomore receiver-turned-running back Jafar Armstrong made their respective position moves. Those changes make it a real safe guess now.

The last time the Irish had as little experience at running back as they do now, it was 2013 and 2014 and Cam McDaniel was leading the way. (Getty Images)

7) The last time Notre Dame entered a season with fewer career rushing yards returning in its running back depth than this year’s 875 (641 from senior Dexter Williams, 234 from junior Tony Jones), was 2013 when Cam McDaniel entered with 134 yards and George Atkinson had rushed for 388.

The last time it had fewer career touchdowns than the current 11 (Williams with eight, Jones with three) was 2014. McDaniel claimed four scores and Tarean Folston offered three.

In 2013, the Irish finished with 1,963 rushing yards, averaging 151.0 per game.
In 2014, they managed 2,073 and averaged 159.5.

While Notre Dame will not match last year’s prodigious rushing output of 3,503 yards and 269.5 averaged per game, it will not fall to those depths. Instead, it will finish a bit closer to the most-recent numbers than the ones from earlier in the decade. Averaging between 214.5 and 224.5 rushing yards per game sounds about right. A mobile quarterback deserves credit for some of that reduced regression.

8) Senior receiver Chris Finke will match his career totals of 16 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns.

9) Two freshmen receivers will outperform then-freshman Michael Young’s 2017 of four catches for 18 yards and a score. Those two will be Kevin Austin and Lawrence Keys.

Once the ‘Has he matured?’ storylines fade, it figures to be a boom or bust season for Irish junior receiver Chase Claypool. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

10) Junior receiver Chase Claypool will not finish second in receptions or receiving yards, as he did in both last season with 29 catches for 402 yards.

11) Fifth-year tight end Nic Weishar will catch at least three touchdowns, placing no lower than second among tight ends in the category. This thinking is largely based off Weishar’s performance in the red zone last year and the trust he earned there both from the Irish coaching staff and from senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush. Two of Weishar’s nine catches were for scores. That percentage could comically rise in 2018.

12) Wake Forest junior receiver Greg Dortch will score twice against Notre Dame on Sept. 22.

13) Stanford senior running back Bryce Love will equal that, if not more, a week later.

14) The game against the Cardinal will be the first of two in a row in primetime for the Irish. When Virginia Tech takes the field on Oct. 6, it will raise goosebumps, and no 280-character praise will come close to giving it proper due.

15) That entrance will still pale in comparison to the daunting feeling felt by the opposition whenever Metallica’s “Enter Sandman” was played in its proper sporting environment, as Mariano Rivera took the field for the New York Yankees. A Red Sox fan of a father used to lament those eight-inning games.

16) Junior Ian Book will attempt fewer than 75 passes, his total of a year ago when he started one game, played the majority of another, saw mop-up duty in four more and collapsed under the lights at Miami, as well. It is the loss of the 18 passes in victorious blowouts that makes this guess most-likely accurate. Freshman Phil Jurkovec will take many of those snaps this year thanks to the NCAA’s rule change regarding eligibility not being affected by appearing in up to four games.

17) Sophomore offensive lineman Josh Lugg will start multiple games. Notre Dame’s offensive line enjoyed remarkable health last season. The only blip came when Alex Bars missed the second half at North Carolina, at which point Tommy Kraemer moved from a timeshare at right tackle to right guard, now his full-time position.

Expecting such fortune again is a bit of a leap, and nearly any injury would activate Lugg. If Kraemer is injured, in steps Lugg. If either tackle goes down, Kraemer is expected to move there, and in steps Lugg at right guard. If now-left guard Bars sprains an ankle, Lugg will be one of two considered, along with classmate Dillan Gibbons.

The only position which may not prompt Lugg would be if fifth-year center Sam Mustipher was knocked out of a game. First of all, that would be an absolute worst-case scenario for first-year offensive line coach Jeff Quinn. Second of all, there is a chance it would elicit Bars moving inward to center, at which point, well, you get the idea.

18) The Irish do not play freshman offensive linemen who do not enroll early. Even then, only three have played since 2008: Trevor Robinson that year, Steve Elmer in 2013 and Robert Hainsey last season.

No offensive linemen enrolled early this spring, yet multiple will play thanks to the NCAA’s shift regarding eligibility concerns. That may not be the most-exciting reason to watch the fourth quarter against Ball State on Sept. 8, but it should be reason enough.

As he competes for backup duties behind All-Pro Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer has thrown for 283 yards and two touchdowns on 16-of-30 passing in two preseason games. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

19) Former Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer threw two touchdowns for the Green Bay Packers on Thursday in a 51-34 preseason victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. That will be the most success Kizer has this year.

20) Long ago notes for this bit included a scrap of paper buried beneath a pile of legal pads. It speculated ESPN’s “College GameDay” would visit campus when Florida State does on Nov. 10, marking the exact matchup which began the show’s on-site trips 25 years ago. The Irish and Seminoles could conceivably still force that issue, but it seems exceptionally unlikely now with “GameDay” already showing up for the season opener. Rather than count this as a prematurely-incorrect pick, let’s wonder if the Florida State weekend includes a 30th anniversary celebration of Notre Dame’s 1988 title team.

Friday at 4: Notre Dame brings back the most important NFL possibilities in Kareem & Okwara

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This is not to diminish the losses of receiver Miles Boykin and consensus first-team All-American cornerback Julian Love. Notre Dame will miss both of them, Love in particular. But looking at the Irish depth chart, there are avenues to survival without both.

Notre Dame will return two starting receivers in rising senior Chase Claypool and fifth-year-to-be Chris Finke (speaking of which, see below). A number of options exist to replace Love, though obviously none will match his shutdown abilities. Either rising sophomore TaRiq Bracy will put on the necessary muscle to compete with receivers at this level or rising senior Donte Vaughn will return reinvigorated with health after recent surgery to repair a torn labrum surgery or rising sophomore Houston Griffith will move from safety to get his talent on the field or fifth-year Shaun Crawford will recover from an ACL tear quicker than expected or … or … or … If one of those pans out, the Irish defense should be comfortable in its coverage, buoyed by the stalwart safety combination of Alohi Gilman and Jalen Elliott. (Imagine sincerely saying “stalwart safety combination” just six months ago.)

Look again at the depth chart, and such luxuries do not exist at defensive end. If rising seniors Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara had not opted to return, Notre Dame’s 2019 dreams would have hit a lowered ceiling nine months before the season began. By no means were they certain high-round draft picks, but the allure of athletic and talented defensive ends may have easily led to some outsized draft hopes.

Their backups are certainly more than capable — rising seniors Daelin Hayes and Ade Ogundeji — but a talented second-unit is as important at defensive end as dangerous starters are. To replace the latter with the former is to diminish the entire enterprise outright.

The Irish could not have recovered from losing both Kareem and Okwara, at least not to the extent where Playoff talk would be viable again. Lose one and it would have still been dubious, at best.

Take a look at the teams expected to be in the mix for the Playoff. Using current championship odds … Clemson at 2-to-1, Alabama at just less than 3-to-1, Georgia at 6-to-1, Ohio State at 8-to-1, Michigan at 16-to-1 and then Oklahoma also at 16-to-1. Those first five have been known for their defenses more than anything else in recent years. Bookmakers put some faith in their ability to reload on the fly.

Notre Dame has not earned that trust, and its roster does not indicate it should have. As well as Justin Ademilola performed as a freshman in four games, inserting him into a pivotal role in 2019 would likely be a recipe for a mediocre season. He is another year of development away from being ready for that role, barring a Matt Balis-induced excellent offseason.

The Irish will need Kareem and Okwara to survive the losses of defensive tackles Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bonner, but if they play as they did in 2018, that is a reasonable ask. If they continue to develop, it becomes a probability more than a Notre Dame leap of faith.

The Irish will miss Boykin’s back-shoulder reliability and everything about Love, but Brian Kelly and his coaching staff coaxed back the two most-pivotal pieces from NFL draft consideration.


Speaking of Finke, he confirmed his intent to return for his final year of eligibility Thursday evening. And he did it in a way only befitting a man comfortable in his own skin.


And for the sake of context: Notre Dame is currently listed at 25-to-1 for the 2019-20 national championship, tied with Florida and Washington, just behind Texas at 20-to-1.

Notre Dame’s defensive depth chart, a touch lighter with D.J. Morgan’s intended transfer

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With the Wednesday announcement of current junior linebacker D.J. Morgan’s intention to transfer this summer as a graduate with two years of eligibility remaining, Notre Dame’s roster drops to 87 scholarship players expected this coming fall. Included among them, at least 12, possibly 14 linebackers. Before explaining that …

Morgan finishes his Irish career with two tackles in two 2017 appearances as a safety. He moved to linebacker during 2018’s spring practices, but never came particularly close to playing time. It remained difficult to see him cracking into the rotation moving forward given the quality of recruiting classes at the position in the last two cycles.

“I would like to thank the University of Notre Dame for everything they have done for me,” Morgan wrote on Twitter. “When I decided to come here, my main goal was to get my degree from this prestigious University, and I am proud to see that I will be completing that goal this summer!

“During this time I will be searching for a new school to attend as a graduate transfer to finish off my last 2 years of eligibility.”

(@deundraymorgan)

Before facing Louisville on Labor Day, the Irish will need to be down to 85 scholarship players. At 87 now, that does not include incoming freshman J.D. Bertrand, who had a recruitment handled in a deliberate fashion so as to make him eligible for an academic scholarship. Notre Dame also continues to chase two defenders — consensus four-star linebacker Asa Turner and consensus four-star defensive end Isaiah Foskey — who could balloon the roster count further.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame’s offensive depth chart entering the 2019 offseason

Keep that necessary attrition in mind as realizing how many players are at certain positions.

DEFENSIVE END (9)
Julian Okwara — Senior in 2019-2020 — 1 year of eligibility remaining.
Khalid Kareem — Senior — 1
Daelin Hayes — Senior — 1
Ade Ogundeji — Senior — 2
Justin Ademilola — Sophomore — 4
Jamir Jones — Senior — 1
Kofi Wardlow — Junior — 3
NaNa Osafo-Mensah — Early-enrolled freshman — 4
Howard Cross — Incoming freshman — 4

If not for Ademilola’s impressive 2018, it would be easy to presume a four-man rotation next season, but appearing in the Cotton Bowl all-but guarantees Ademilola will be in the mix.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE (6)
Kurt Hinish — Junior in 2019-2020 — 2 years of eligibility remaining.
Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa — Junior in 2019-2020 — 3
Jayson Ademilola — Sophomore — 3
Ja’Mion Franklin — Sophomore — 4
Jacob Lacey — Early-enrolled freshman — 4
Hunter Spears — Early-enrolled freshman — 4

Lacey will need to be ready for at least four games next season, especially with three of these six returning from injury: Tagovailoa-Amosa with a broken foot, though he did at least take some snaps against Clemson; Franklin from a torn quad that will limit him through the spring; and Spears from a torn ACL that could conceivably cost him 2019.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS (8)
Asmar Bilal — Fifth-year in 2019-2020 — 1 year of eligibility remaining.
Jordan Genmark-Heath — Junior — 2
Jonathan Jones — Senior — 2
Bo Bauer — Sophomore — 3
Jack Lamb — Sophomore — 4
Drew White — Junior — 3
Jack Kiser — Early-enrolled freshman — 4
J.D. Bertrand — Incoming freshman — 4

It was always going to be a long-shot for Morgan as soon as Bauer and Lamb arrived.

ROVER (5)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah — Junior in 2019-2020 — 3 years of eligibility remaining.
Shayne Simon — Sophomore — 3
Ovie Oghoufo — Sophomore — 3
Marist Liufau — Incoming freshman — 4
Osito Ekwonu — Incoming freshman — 4

Owusu-Koramoah lost 2018 to injury, making this something of a toss-up between him and Simon for a spring competition chasing the starting role, presuming Bilal does indeed move inside as expected.

Alohi Gilman’s 18 tackles in the Cotton Bowl loss should set him up for an offseason of further development and possible captaincy. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

SAFETIES (8)
Alohi Gilman — Senior in 2019-2020 — 2 years of eligibility remaining.
Jalen Elliott — Senior — 1
Devin Studstill — Senior — 1
Houston Griffith — Sophomore — 3
Derrik Allen — Sophomore — 4
Paul Moala — Sophomore — 3
Kyle Hamilton — Incoming freshman — 4
Litchfield Ajavon — Incoming freshman — 4

CORNERBACKS (8)
Troy Pride — Senior in 2019-2020 — 1 year of eligibility remaining.
Donte Vaughn — Senior — 1
TaRiq Bracy — Sophomore — 3
Shaun Crawford — Fifth-year — 1, with possibly another after that if the NCAA grants a medical waiver.
D.J. Brown — Sophomore — 4
Noah Boykin — Sophomore — 4
Isaiah Rutherford — Incoming freshman — 4
K.J. Wallace — Incoming freshman — 4

Someone needs to be Notre Dame’s second cornerback, be that Vaughn, Bracy or a healthy Crawford. Someone also needs to be the Irish nickel back, perhaps Bracy, Crawford or a converted safety.

The questions at cornerback have multiple talented answers, if unproven or uncertain. They should prove to be the most pivotal to Notre Dame’s 2019 success or failure.

 

Leftovers & Links: Brandon Wimbush heads to Central Florida for his final season

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Former Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush will continue his career at Central Florida. Wimbush announced his graduate transfer destination Tuesday morning.

“The journey continues on …,” Wimbush wrote on Instagram. “A sincere thank you to Notre Dame for giving me endless opportunities on and off the field. Words truly can not (sic) describe what this incredible University and the PEOPLE mean to me and always will mean to me. I’m truly thankful. Cannot say it enough.

“With that being said, I am excited to announce that UCF has granted me an awesome opportunity to play my last year of collegiate football for their great University.”

Wimbush will enter into a starting opportunity, although an unfortunate one and a competitive one. The late November horrendous knee injury to three-year starter McKenzie Milton will almost-assuredly sideline him through the 2019 season. If not for the injury, Milton would either be starting 2019 for the Knights or headed to the NFL.

In his first year of any action, sophomore Darriel Mack played in 10 games for Central Florida, completing 51 of his 100 pass attempts for 619 yards and three touchdowns, including going 35-of-71 for 526 yards and three scores in the two-plus games Milton missed.

In other words, Mack put up Wimbush-esque numbers, despite Heupel’s high-scoring offense.

Wimbush finishes his Irish career with a 13-3 record as a starter, including four wins during 2018’s unbeaten regular season. After the Notre Dame offense failed to break 24 points in the first three games of the season, offensive coordinator Chip Long turned to Ian Book for a spark, one Book provided and then some.

Wimbush’s role became non-existent after that, aside from a Senior Day start in place of an injured Book, throwing for 130 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 68 yards.

RELATED READING: The quarterback Notre Dame needed, Brandon Wimbush

In the lead-up to the Cotton Bowl, word broke Wimbush would seek a graduate transfer, confirming what had long been obvious. It had been so clear, it did not faze anyone within the Irish locker room.

Mustipher and Co. will now have reason to keep an eye on the Knights in 2019. After going 25-1 in the last two seasons, Central Florida will want to keep the momentum rolling, particularly with Stanford arriving in Orlando on Sept. 14, a week before the Knights head to Pittsburgh. The Knights genuinely entering the College Football Playoff conversation remains unlikely, but topping those two before rolling through the American Athletic Conference would at least start the discussion, especially if a former Irish quarterback headlines the way.

A consensus three-star prospect out of Virginia, Mack held offers from eastern schools in the Big Ten (Maryland), Big 12 (West Virginia) and ACC (Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh).

Named 2018’s Next Man In, Wimbush finishes his Irish career with 2,606 yards on 193-of-382 passing with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions along with 1,155 rushing yards and 16 additional touchdowns.

AS FOR NOTRE DAME’S QB IN 2019 …
Early Heisman odds came from an online sportsbook Tuesday, betonline.ag. Irish rising senior Ian Book was given 16-to-1 odds, tied for ninth on the listing. Given the names ahead of him, Book’s realistic chances of winning the Heisman Trophy are slim. Only Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have odds lower than 12-to-1, at 7-to-2 and 4-to-1, respectively.

Then come two Notre Dame opponents — Georgia running back D’Andre Swift and quarterback Jake Fromm, both at 12-to-1. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson checks in at 25-to-1, just ahead of Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello at 33-to-1.

If nothing else, Book can count on some early-season hype if the Irish top Swift and Fromm on Sept. 21.

INSIDE THE IRISH READING
Even the ‘way-too-early’ 2019 polls already respect Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s offensive depth chart entering the 2019 offseason
Claypool’s return welcome news for Notre Dame
Program-record 10 early enrollees mark the beginning of Notre Dame’s 2019
Autry Denson leaves Notre Dame to take over at Charleston Southern
Notre Dame’s Opponents: Early NFL departures hit Georgia, Michigan and Stanford hardest

OUTSIDE READING
Brandon Wimbush and UCF are a promising match for a pivotal 2019
The three biggest questions in college football for the 2019 season
2019 NFL draft underclassmen tracker: Who has declared?
Stanford’s Bryce Love ‘on the path to recovery’ from torn ACL
College football’s 100 best games 2018-19

Notre Dame’s Opponents: Early NFL departures hit Georgia, Michigan and Stanford hardest

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A sign of a strong program is one that loses players to the NFL before they exhaust eligibility. In that vein, Notre Dame lost a consensus first-team All-American cornerback, its leading receiver and a long-time tease of a tight end. The last of those (Alizé Mack) was never expected back for a fifth season; replacing Miles Boykin’s production is certainly within reason; and a consensus first-team All-American should be expected to take the route junior Julian Love has.

Even with that expectation, losing Love — and to a lesser extent, Boykin — alters the natural roster cycle, the inherent design intended during recruiting. Reloading is always the hope, the next intention, but very rarely is the young backup comparable to the near professional, even by the end of the coming season.

Nonetheless, the Irish got off easy this cycle compared to four of their 2019 opponents …

GEORGIA: Junior running back Elijah Holyfield, the Bulldogs’ second-leading rusher, departs after gaining 1,018 rushing yards with seven touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry this season. Frankly, that is the least of Georgia’s losses. Three of quarterback Jake Fromm’s four favorite targets will leave eligibility on the figurative table:

— Junior receiver Riley Ridley: 44 catches for 570 yards and nine touchdowns in 2018.
— Junior receiver Mecole Hardman: 34 catches for 532 yards and seven touchdowns.
— Junior tight end Isaac Nauta: 30 catches for 430 yards and three touchdowns.

Without running back Karan Higdon, Michigan will presumably rely on its passing game more in 2019, quarterback Shea Patterson’s second season as a Wolverine. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

MICHIGAN: The Wolverines got good news when quarterback Shea Patterson opted to return for 2019, but losing leading-rusher Karan Higdon (1,178 yards, 10 touchdowns, 5.3 average) will be an issue head coach Jim Harbaugh undoubtedly hoped to avoid. Junior tight end Zach Gentry, Patterson’s third-most prolific target with 32 catches for 514 yards and two scores, will also head to the next level.

On the flip side, Harbaugh could have hoped linebacker Devin Bush (team-leading 80 tackles with 9.5 for loss including five sacks), defensive end Rashan Gary (44 tackles with seven for loss including 3.5 sacks) or linebacker David Long (17 tackles with one interception) might return, but no such luck for Michigan.

Duke junior quarterback Daniel Jones will head to the NFL after his third season as a starter, immediately lowering the Blue Devils’ 2019 expectations. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

DUKE: Junior linebacker Joe Giles-Harris paced the Blue Devils with 81 tackles, including seven for loss with one sack, doing so in only nine games. But losing Giles-Harris is hardly the concern for Duke. The decision to turn pro from quarterback Daniel Jones is.

In his third year as a starter, the junior fought through a broken collarbone to still play in 11 games in 2018, completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions. He added 319 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Jones’ decision may come as a surprise, but it is one that should work out well for both him and Notre Dame. Some mock drafts project him as a top-10 pick. In a draft light on quarterbacks — partly because Oregon’s Justin Herbert returned for another season, yet already somewhat counteracted by the Monday draft entry from Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray — Jones could end up being the third or fourth passer picked.

BOSTON COLLEGE: The Eagles will say farewell to junior cornerback Hemp Cheevers after he notched seven interceptions this season, returning one for a touchdown, to go along with 39 tackles.

STANFORD: This will seem like the Cardinal lost a lot to the NFL draft, but it could have been worse: As the departures mounted, so did speculation junior quarterback K.J. Costello might follow them. He opted not to.

Stanford will be without running back Bryce Love after his prodigious two seasons as the starter. Consider that a loss akin to the Irish Love, the inevitable price of enjoying the success in the first place.

Junior receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside will capitalize on his breakout season of 1,059 yards and 14 touchdowns, depriving Costello of his favorite jump-ball threat.

Junior tight end Kaden Smith will also head to the next level, in large part thanks to his 47 catches for 635 yards and two touchdowns this past season.

Louisville, New Mexico, Virginia, Bowling Green, USC, Virginia Tech and Navy all did not lose anyone early or pseudo-early to the NFL draft.