And In That Corner … The No. 7 Stanford Cardinal and a top-10 matchup

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If there is any opponent this fall Notre Dame knows well, it is Stanford. Other teams are on this year’s schedule just as they were last season’s (USC, Navy, Wake Forest), but only the Cardinal return a starting quarterback and nearly all offensive weapons.

Yet, this No. 7-ranked team is unlike the Stanford renditions of the last few years. Let’s turn to Jacob Rayburn of the Cardinal Sports Report to explain how so.

DF: Jacob, as always, I appreciate you taking some time out of the week to offer some thoughts from the Cardinal side of the country. With this matchup a little earlier than its usual mid-October or late November slot, I know even less about Stanford than I would usually claim to.

I typically start by discussing an opponent’s offense, but I am actually more interested in the Cardinal defense. Entering the season I had low expectations for it, coming off its worst statistical season in David Shaw’s tenure with 368 yards and 22.7 points allowed per game. Then losing Pac-12 first-teamers tackle Harrison Phillips and safety Justin Reed, second-team cornerback Quenton Meeks and a few other pieces, I figured the defense would continue to slide. Before diving into what has become reality, were your preseason expectations similar?

JR: There was no doubt in anyone’s mind before the season most of the uncertainty was on the defensive side of the ball. Stanford lost playmakers in Phillips and Reid without any obvious heirs at defensive tackle or safety. On paper the defensive line was in the most questionable state of the Shaw era with only one returning starter, junior end Dylan Jackson, and not much proof they could consistently get into the backfield.

Any hope of a rotation up front relied heavily on underclassmen. There were a lot of eyes on the development of Dalyn Wade-Perry at nose tackle. The redshirt freshman has a lot of potential but before the season no one knew how fast he’d come along.

There actually was optimism before the season about the back seven, although there were several spots where depth was expected to be a problem. Joey Alfieri was back at outside linebacker after a year-long experiment to play inside. That really didn’t work and there wasn’t much doubt that his return to the outside would be successful. Sean Barton returned from a devastating knee injury last year and his athleticism combined with development on the mental side of the game was expected to be a big plus next to Bobby Okereke.

Stanford’s safeties were considered a weak link before the season and many people were in wait-and-hope mode. Ben Edwards and Frank Buncom struggled at times the past couple years and neither has the all-around game Reid brought the past two seasons. Comparatively, there was a lot of excitement about the cornerback situation. Alijah Holder was on the mend after a knee injury last year and a healthy Holder is one of the best cornerbacks in the country.

Furthermore, Paulson Adebo was set to make his collegiate debut after redshirting last year. The coaches were very excited about him and it seemed only a matter of time until he beat senior captain Alameen Murphy for the starting spot opposite Holder. Murphy is a versatile player who can play nickel or safety and is still one of the unquestioned leaders of the unit.

Only four games into his career, Cardinal sophomore cornerback Paulson Adebo leads the country with 11 passes broken up. For context: Irish junior cornerback Julian Love is No. 3 with nine. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Instead, Stanford has allowed a mere 13.5 points per game. The 356.75 yards per game may not be a number Shaw likes, but that scoring defense stands out. To my eye, the Cardinal have relied on turnovers to effectively (and clichély) bend but not break. In the USC victory, for example, Stanford forced three turnovers. The defense has notched nine total this season. Is that the secret sauce or is there more in-depth analysis available behind the defense holding up thus far?

Compared to those preseason expectations the defense has been a pleasant surprise. There’s no magic touch here, just a lot of work done in the offseason to come together as a disciplined unit. Alfieri said the defensive players held extra meetings and as early as January realized they needed to commit to having a great offseason. The coaches challenged them to bring back the “Party in the Backfield” mentality and also focus on making plays on the ball. Stanford starts each practice with individual drills that include techniques to get the ball away from offensive players. They want it to be muscle memory for every guy who steps onto the field and that was validated when former walk-on, seldom-used backup safety Noah Williams caused the game-saving fumble at Oregon.

Stanford defensive coordinator Lance Anderson has been very happy with how well each defender is sticking with his job and not playing hero ball. It hasn’t been perfect in that regard and the Oregon game was a clear example of that.

The Cardinal were shredded by Justin Herbert in the first half but the defense shut down Oregon on its last seven drives, allowing only one touchdown. After the game the players summed up the change as simply doing their jobs correctly.

Last year Phillips and Reid were the bad-play erasers. They’d chase down the mistakes others made. There aren’t any guys on this unit who can do that to the same level, so they shouldn’t try. But when each guy does his 1/11th — a common phrase at Stanford — then good things happen.

Things have obviously shifted at Notre Dame this week with the insertion of junior Ian Book at quarterback. His specialty is a quick progression and some precision in the mid-range game, but he lacks a dangerous deep ball. Will the Cardinal defense be susceptible to that attack or would you expect the secondary to withstand the methodical approach?

The emerging strength of the defense is the cornerback play. Holder and Adebo are playing at a very high level and Murphy is a solid player who is a better tackler than his performance at Oregon would suggest. If Book and Notre Dame want to try to string together four or five passes to move the ball downfield that fits into what Stanford prefers to give. Anderson protects against the big play and trusts that Holder and Adebo will bring down receivers right at the moment of the catch. Also, there is confidence that eventually there will be a pass deflection. Adebo leads the country with 11.

Stanford will be without starting safety Ben Edwards for the second straight week and Malik Antoine will play instead. Antoine and Buncom are solid in coverage. It’s Buncom’s strength after starting his career at corner, but he needs to have a much better day of taking angles on receivers who catch passes in front of him than he did at Oregon. He had a couple really rough plays when an Oregon receiver ran around him.

Bryce Love is not off to the same record-setting start he enjoyed last season, but that is in part due to opposing defenses scheming him out of the game. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Flipping to the offense, the needed question is, where is Love? That is not an attempt at a knock-off Haddaway song. That is a wondering of how and why senior running back Bryce Love has just 254 yards and two touchdowns on a 4.3 yards per carry average. He missed the UC Davis game, but even in just three showings, one would expect the Heisman runner-up to produce more.

Bryce Love’s disappearing act has much more to do with his supporting cast than his own ability. The offensive line has struggled mightily to open up lanes for him and there are a couple main reasons. One is that opposing defensive coordinators have constructed some dramatic unscouted looks that stumped the line and Stanford coaches at first viewing. San Diego State brought blitzers from all over the place in the season opener using their 3-3-5 scheme to create confusion.

Clancy Pendergast and USC went to an extreme mode with disguised shifts. Shaw said the following week it was unlike anything he’s seen in 20 years. Defenses aren’t sticking with their base against Stanford because what Love accomplished last season was unprecedented in terms of big plays.

The second biggest factor has been health. Stanford’s line has been constantly hit by injuries going back to the start of the offseason when fifth-year center Jesse Burkett wasn’t available until the final week of camp. He missed the first two games. Foster Sarell was injured in the USC game and he was a strong candidate to eventually win the left guard job. Devery Hamilton was the starting left guard but was out for the Oregon game. Right tackle A.T. Hall was hurt against UC Davis and played the second half at Oregon on one healthy foot.

But Shaw has also been disappointed by the lack of discipline — at least one holding penalty in each game and usually several — and the guys are getting beat one-on-one much more than is expected with a Stanford line. New offensive line coach Kevin Carberry implemented a new pass protection scheme and put in a lot of work improving pass protection, which has produced good results, but the same can’t be said about the run blocking performances.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside has used his frame to pull in 17 catches for 408 yards and seven touchdowns. The yardage ranks No. 13 in the country, while his 24 yards per catch is No. 7. The seven scores? Those are the second-most through the air in all of FBS. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Not that Stanford’s offense has lagged too much without Love excelling. Led primarily by quarterback KJ Costello and receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside, the passing game has taken off: 10 touchdowns against three interceptions, 264 yards per game. That average would be the highest since Shaw’s first year, the final season of some guy named Luck. Has this been the result of a shift in scheme or simply the development of personnel?

Stanford’s passing offense has taken the lead because that’s what Shaw has been forced to lean on as each game progresses. Costello has taken a step forward after taking over the job during last season. He is a smarter player now and has improved his pocket awareness and mobility in the backfield.

And why not lean on the passing game when you have Arcega-Whiteside and tight end Kaden Smith? They each have a chance to be one of the best in the country at their respective positions and are future NFL players. Tight end Colby Parkinson has become much more than a 6-foot-7 red-zone threat, so Costello is looking to him more and more between the 20s. Trent Irwin is “Mr. Reliable” at receiver and can be consistently counted on to make a play to move the chains. Then you add Bryce Love — who may get more involved in the passing game — and there are plenty of reasons for a quarterback to smile.

Stanford also is developing receivers redshirt freshman Osiris St. Brown and freshman Michael Wilson into greater roles. St. Brown had a big catch at Oregon and position coach Bobby Kennedy expects more from him with each game.

I have two broader view questions for you. First, how odd is it to be covering a Cardinal team seemingly driven by its offense and a bevy of playmakers? Aside from the 2015 fireworks provided by Christian McCaffrey, that has been rather rare at The Farm of late.

It’s interesting that you reference 2015 because before the season that was the most obvious comparison to what Stanford has on this offense. This is not the 2013 offense that seemed to rely on pounding away down the field with the occasional big play over the top. In 2015 there was an effective balance between the two with a nice mix of explosiveness and time-eating drives. This year there is a quick strike feel that’s different from last year. Last season Love’s ability to break 50-plus yard runs ended a lot of drives quickly. Against Oregon, Stanford had two touchdown drives of three plays — five passes and one touchdown run by Love.

Secondly, Brian Kelly made the point this week that Stanford knows what it feels like to beat the Irish, but not vice versa with these rosters. “They have beaten Notre Dame. They believe that they can come in here and beat Notre Dame.” Do you get that sense from the program at all? Just like nobody in an Irish uniform can claim to have beaten the Cardinal, all of Stanford’s roster knows only victories against Notre Dame.

Stanford’s players feel confident going into Notre Dame but the Oregon game served up plenty of humble pie to make sure they don’t swagger into South Bend expecting the game to go their way. Of course it helps that this is a mature team that knows what it feels like to play in South Bend and win.  

With that trend in mind, what are your thoughts when you see the Irish favored by 4.5 points? (Editor’s note: Since asking Jacob this, the spread has risen to 5.5 points.)

I think Notre Dame wins by a score. This has been a wonderful series to watch for most of the past 10 years and I expect a similarly tight game. I give the edge to Notre Dame with Book giving the offense a boost and knowing Stanford’s offense has yet to put together a good performance for a full 60 minutes.

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40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part IV: Notre Dame’s 2022 ended where it was always expected to

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl - Notre Dame v South Carolina
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Notre Dame did not get there in any way expected, but the Irish season ended about where anticipated in the preseason. Psychological studies could spend hours disagreeing if it would have been better for Notre Dame to go 10-3 with its three losses coming to three top-10 teams or if a 9-4 season with a top-10 upset is better for Marcus Freeman’s program in the long-term.

But either scenario was going to end with the Irish in the Gator Bowl, a likelihood as far back as August.

To finish this recap of 40 preseason predictions

32) “A freshman defensive back will intercept a pass this season, becoming just the second freshman to do so” since 2017. Notre Dame’s defensive backfields have been far from liabilities during this resurgence since the 2016 faceplant, but they have lacked young playmakers, Kyle Hamilton aside.

Enter Benjamin Morrison and not one, not two, not three … but six interceptions in his freshman season. Unfortunately for your prognosticator, that does not equal six correct predictions. (15.5/32)

33) “The spread when the Irish visit the Trojans will be more than a field goal but less than a touchdown.” And indeed, USC was favored by four when Notre Dame visited the weekend after Thanksgiving, in what may have been the last visit the weekend after Thanksgiving. Logic says the Irish and Trojans will continue playing regularly, but USC’s joining the Big Ten in 2024 could change the timing of the meetings, and NCAA rule changes have removed Notre Dame’s want to be on the West Coast that particular week.

The Irish used to disperse their coaches from Washington to Arizona to recruit the Pacific time zone immediately after the season-ending game in California. In a literal sense, it saved those coaches 12-24 hours to not have to travel to Seattle or Phoenix from South Bend, particularly vital in a crucial recruiting window.

But now, the days after Thanksgiving are a dead period, so the coaches cannot make those visits. They flew back with the team this year.

Combine that with the Big Ten flux and perhaps Notre Dame starts heading to USC at a different point in the calendar in 2024. (16.5/33)

34) “USC will not make the College Football Playoff.”

Between this, suggesting Ohio State would make the Playoff and mistakenly thinking Clemson would, as well, these preseason predictions accurately predicted the season conclusions for two of the three biggest Irish opponents in 2022. Already suspect the 2023 version will include none of the three making the Playoff. (17.5/34)

35) Sophomore receiver Lorenzo Styles’ disappointing 2022 — 30 catches for 340 yards and one touchdown — cost him any semblance of NFL draft buzz a year before he is eligible for the draft. A breakout 2023 would obviously change that, but that was not the prediction. (17.5/35)

36) Blake Grupe fell two makes short of the predicted 80 percent field-goal rate, finishing at 73.7 percent on 14-of-19. A career 74.4 percent kicker before he arrived at Notre Dame, the Arkansas State graduate transfer’s 2022 fell in line with his career. (17.5/36)

37) Arguing Notre Dame would score fewer than 32.8 points per game in 2022 was based on the lack of depth at receiver, subsequently underscored by Styles’ struggles. Expecting the Irish to slow things down made a lower-scoring season a strong thought, though perhaps not as low as the 31.4 scored per game in 2018, the low of the last six years.

Notre Dame threaded that needle with 31.8 points per game, a number buoyed, though not shockingly, by the punt-block unit and Morrison’s contributions. (18.5/37)

38) The Irish had gone 54-10 in Brian Kelly’s final five years in South Bend, winning at least 10 games each year. Predicting a sixth season of double-digit wins was a mistake largely thanks to Audric Estimé’s fumble in the fourth quarter against Stanford. (18.5/38)

39) This final stretch of predictions focused on hitting a few tight windows. The spread against USC, the exact scoring average and … where Notre Dame would play in a bowl game.

“Notre Dame will play in Florida before New Year’s.”

As complicated as bowl scenarios get during the season and then even the week of selections with the Holiday Bowl in San Diego reportedly campaigning hard for the Irish, sticking with initial expectations would have been a smart travel-planning strategy. (19.5/39)



40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part I: Notre Dame’s rushing offense hid many early struggles
Part II: Notre Dame’s upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach
Part III: Notre Dame’s November far from the expected disappointment

40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part III: Notre Dame’s November far from the expected disappointment

Clemson v Notre Dame
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Recapping these preseason predictions bit by bit has emphasized how much of a see-saw Notre Dame’s 2022 was. They expected decent Irish success at Ohio State to open the season, which was realized. They then plainly assumed Notre Dame would continue to wallop overmatched opponents as Brian Kelly made the default.

Instead, Marcus Freeman stubbed his toe twice as first-year head coaches are wont to do, rendering that stretch of predictions largely flawed.

Now, the predictions tilt into early November, expecting little from the Irish. Of course, that was exactly when Freeman delivered the defining moment of his debut campaign.

21) “Notre Dame will top last year’s 41 sacks, which was a Kelly Era high. The Ademilola twins, junior defensive end Rylie Mills and at least one linebacker will each make at least three sacks.”

The first part of that fell inarguably short, 38 clearly less than 41. But the next sentence held more merit. Defensive end Justin Ademiloa and twin brother tackle Jayson Ademilola each had three sacks while Mills added 3.5. No linebacker reached three unless willing to still count Jordan Botelho as a linebacker with his 4.5 sacks. Given two of those came in the Gator Bowl when Botelho was clearly a defensive end, that would be generous grading. Instead, this entire prediction should be considered wrong, alas. (12/21)

22) Did this space continue publishing as planned after the Minnesota Timberwolves home opener? The running content calendar says a “Leftovers & Links” column ran on Oct. 20, the day after. Take the wins where you can find them, especially as a Timberwolves fan. (13/22)

23) The Irish had won 25 straight regular-season games against ACC opponents entering the season. Predicting that would reach 27 meant predicting Notre Dame would beat North Carolina and Syracuse. Check and check. (14/23)

24) That did not push the Irish into the top 10 of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, as predicted, thanks to the mishaps against Marshall and Stanford. (14/24)

25) And here comes a stretch of predictions predicated in pessimism, focused on how Notre Dame would fare against Clemson. The Irish had won 16 straight games in November entering the 2022 season. Suggesting that would end at 16 was suggesting Notre Dame would lose to Clemson on the first weekend of November.

Rather, that was the win in Freeman’s first season that will be long remembered. (14/25)

26) That expected loss was based on Clemson’s defensive front holding Notre Dame’s ground game in check. There was no expectation the Irish would dominate there with 264 rushing yards on 46 carries after adjusting for a single one-yard sack. Logan Diggs ran for 114 yards on 17 carries while Audric Estimé took 18 rushes for 104 yards. (14/26)

27) That loss did not knock Clemson out of the College Football Playoff. The Tigers messing around and finding out against South Carolina did that. But regardless, predicting Clemson would return to the Playoff was ill-fated. (14/27)

28) Notre Dame was 30-1 in its last 31 home games entering the season. Predicting that would reach 35-2 in step with suggesting the Irish would lose to the Tigers was wrong in all sorts of ways, most notably in that the stretch is now 34-3 after Notre Dame went just 4-2 at home last season. Again, Marshall and Stanford. (14/28)

29) Boston College receiver Zay Flowers did not have the predicted 40-yard catch on Senior Day at Notre Dame Stadium. He had a long of 39 yards on a snow-covered field playing with a backup quarterback.

The spirit of the prognostication was valid, but alas. (14/29)

30) Former Irish tight end George Takacs did not catch a touchdown in his return with the Eagles. No one did. (14/30)

31) And former Notre Dame quarterback Phil Jurkovec did not have a “perfectly adequate day in his return to South Bend, not dramatic enough in any regard to confirm or deny anyone’s expectations for him that day.”

Jurkovec did not play at all, so let’s call this wager a push. He did, however, make some headlines from the sideline.

There is a strong chance this prediction is rerun in its entirety in 2023 with Jurkovec and Pittsburgh heading to South Bend on Oct. 28. (14.5/31)

Leftovers & Links: Ohio State, Clemson & Pittsburgh hurt most by early NFL draft entrants among Notre Dame’s opponents

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 03 Notre Dame at Ohio State
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The first two notable dates of college football’s offseason passed last week, the deadline for players to enter the transfer portal before the spring semester and the deadline to enter the NFL draft. The former hardly warranted much notice at Notre Dame, only three players entering the portal after the 2022 season. While plenty did transfer from other programs, a mid-May look at that movement may better serve Irish purposes, as plenty of names will eventually leave Notre Dame.

The NFL deadline has no second passing. Players are either headed toward the NFL draft by now or they are not.

The Irish lost five players to early entry to the NFL, though two of those instances were offensive lineman Jarrett Patterson and defensive end Justin Ademilola, both of whom would have been returning for sixth collegiate seasons in 2023. So in a more genuine sense, Notre Dame lost only three players early to the NFL draft: tight end Michael Mayer, defensive end Isaiah Foskey and safety Brandon Joseph.

All five would have started for the Irish next season, obviously. But at most, Ademilola’s and Joseph’s declarations were surprises, and even those were only mild at most.

College football will slowly churn back toward college careers following “normal” timelines and more tenable roster management the further it gets from the universal pandemic eligibility waiver from 2020. That will not take all the way until the 2025 season. Coaches are already leaning toward it.

While Notre Dame would have gladly welcomed back Patterson and/or Ademilola, it also knew two realities.

1) Patterson should be a second- or third-round draft pick who could have gone to the NFL a year ago. His time is now.
2) A year of Ademilola’s production would come at the expense of the development of younger players that may already be on the verge, somewhat deflating the value of his return.

In a parallel way, coaching staffs fall into two categories.

1) Either they are doing well and trust they can recruit better players than any draft debaters now. Leaning into continued successful recruiting lengthens the timeline these coaches expect to continue to succeed.
2) Or they are failing and soon fired. A new coach would rather bring in new players, “his players,” to reboot the program.

In both scenarios, fewer and fewer sixth-year players will be seen around college football long before the 2025 season rules them out entirely.

All of that is to say, when discussing entrants into the NFL draft, it is more and more accurate to focus on the juniors (like Mayer) and the seniors (Foskey, Joseph) rather than the half-decade veterans. Those losses from Notre Dame’s 2023 opponents, in order of most severe to least …

Ohio State: Losing quarterback C.J. Stroud would top this list no matter who else was on it. Stroud alone would have made the Buckeyes the title favorites next season. Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba also jumped to the NFL, though his final collegiate season was effectively nullified when a Joseph tackle in the season opener injured Smith-Njigba’s hamstring to an extent he never genuinely returned in 2022.

Center Luke Wypler and offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. headed to the next level, as well, along with defensive tackle Dawand Jones and defensive back Ronnie Hickman.

But those latter losses are anticipated at elite programs. Ohio State has recruited to replace most of these players. The Buckeyes barely missed Smith-Njigba in 2022, and he may be the best receiver in the draft. Stroud, however, is a loss that will throw the early part of Ohio State’s 2023 into some question.

Clemson: Similarly, the Tigers losing three defensive linemen in Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee and K.J. Henry along with linebacker Trenton Simpson may be too much to overcome in stride. As Clemson has so terribly struggled — throw some sarcasm on that phrasing — to just 10 and 11 wins the last two season, it has leaned on its defensive front.

The Tigers gave up only 102.7 rushing yards per game in 2022, No. 13 in the country, and 20.9 points per game, No. 22 in the country. A year ago, Clemson ranked No. 7 and No. 2 in the respective categories.

Replacing 29.5 tackles for loss from the 2022 season including 16 sacks will be a difficult task. Perhaps “terribly struggled” will no longer warrant sarcasm.

Pittsburgh: Not many programs saw two All-Americans jump to the NFL, but the Panthers did in running back Israel Abanikanda (1,431 yards on 5.99 yards per carry with 20 rushing touchdowns) and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey (14 tackles for loss with 7 sacks in 11 games). Safety Brandon Hill also provided Pittsburgh’s defense some versatility.

USC: The Trojans also lost two All-Americans to the NFL — which, come to think of it, Notre Dame did, as well, in Mayer and Foskey — in receiver Jordan Addison and defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu. To be more clear, Addison was not a 2022 All-American, but one at Pittsburgh back in 2021. Injuries slowed him a touch in 2022, but overall, his talent is All-American in caliber.

Stanford: The Cardinal’s talent drain this offseason will warrant a deep dive. It is one to behold. The first line on it is quarterback Tanner McKee heading to the NFL with some draftniks thinking he should be an early-round pick.

When Stanford upset Notre Dame in October, McKee led the way with 288 yards on an impressive 26-of-38 completion rate. Losing him will drastically change the Cardinal ceiling in 2023, which is saying something considering how low that ceiling already was.

Central Michigan: Running back Lew Nicholls III did not have the statistical profile of someone who should head to the NFL already, with all of 616 rushing yards and six touchdowns in 2022, but look back to 2021 and his choice makes more sense. He ran for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 338 receiving yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Navy, Tennessee State, North Carolina State, Duke, Louisville and Wake Forest did not lose players to any early NFL decisions.

If this list seems abbreviated, that’s because it is throughout college football. Name, image and likeness rights have made it more enticing for players to return to school Reportedly, fewer players entered this draft early than at any time in the last decade.

To think, so many people insisted NIL rights would ruin college football. Here is hard evidence it has upgraded the talent in the sport.

Trio of early-enrolling Notre Dame receivers most likely of dozen arrivals to impact 2023
40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part I: ND’s rushing offense hid many early struggles
40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part II: Upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach

2023 NFL Draft Big Board: PFF’s top 100 prospects
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40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part II: Notre Dame’s upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach

Marshall v Notre Dame
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To continue a final look back at Notre Dame’s 2022 season through the lens of preseason predictions and the expectations they framed …

11) The most underappreciated part of the Irish resurgence since 2017 and thus Brian Kelly’s final years coaching in South Bend was that Notre Dame won 42 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest streak in the country. It was so taken for granted, this prediction thought the Irish would run that to 50 games in 2023.

Instead, Marcus Freeman lost his very first game against an unranked opponent. (8 correct predictions out of 11.)

12) A few predictions always delve out of college football, for variety’s sake. Maybe that should be forgotten moving forward, considering the Packers neither beat the Vikings to open the season nor won the NFC North. To make matters even worse for this scribe of a lapsed Packers fan, they also were not bad enough to draft a good quarterback in 2023. (8 out of 12.)

13) North Carolina leaned on dynamic receiver Josh Downs to prodigious amounts in 2021. An early-season injury slowed him this year, thus ruining any chance of him having “the most catches in a game against the Irish this season, though not the most yards.”

He caught five passes for 32 yards.

Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka set the catches mark with nine for 90 yards to open the season, while BYU’s Kody Epps caught four passes for 100 yards, the season high in yardage against Notre Dame. (8/13)

14) Notre Dame played a multiple-look defense this season, a layup of a prediction given the linebacker depth and versatility led by Jack Kiser and (eventually injured) Bo Bauer. That was emphasized at USC when the Irish leaned into a 3-3-5 look without both cornerback Cam Hart and nickel back Tariq Bracy. Kiser’s speed became the defense’s best chance.

It was not enough, but it was a valiant effort, and one to keep in mind in 2023. (9/14)

15) “The math says at least one Irish player will be ejected for targeting in 2022.”

Enter JD Bertrand, twice. (10/15)

16) “Notre Dame will beat BYU in Las Vegas.”

Despite a lackluster second-half, check.

“… This space will miss at least one day of publishing the following week. Who can say why.”

Let’s check the running content calendar. For Tuesday, Oct. 11, it reads, “Vegas won this round.” Sometimes it is best to foresee your own personal failures. (11/16)

17) Marcus Freeman’s recruiting emphasis never waned, underscored by the last two years of recruiting topping anything the Irish have ever done. (12/17)

18) The only area in which Michael Mayer fell short in his Notre Dame career was of this prediction, one saying he would casually break two of his own three Irish single-season records. To do so, he needed to exceed 71 catches, 840 receiving yards and/or seven touchdowns.

The surefire first-round draft pick merely caught 67 passes for 809 yards and nine scores.

Would he have reached all three metrics if he played in the Gator Bowl? Almost assuredly. But then again, he played in only 12 games in 2021, too. The prediction was wrong, regardless. (12/18)

19) Another thought about an individual record, defensive end Isaiah Foskey did not exceed Justin Tuck’s record of 13.5 sacks in a season. He did take down the quarterback 11 times, reaching double digits for a second consecutive season while setting the Notre Dame career mark. (12/19)

20) Similar to prediction No. 11, an underappreciated part of Kelly’s final five years in South Bend were that the Irish won 39 straight games when favored at kickoff, covering all of the 2018-21 seasons.

Both to suggest that would continue and to guess how many times Notre Dame would be favored in 2022, arguing that streak would reach 48 was right in that the Irish were favored in nine of 13 games. They just happened to lose the first of those (and then again against Stanford, the fourth time they would be favored this season).

Such blunders should have been expected from a first-year head coach. Those missteps seem to catch just about every such rookie. But forgetting or overlooking that led to dashed expectations in 2022. (12/20)