Notre Dame’s Playoff Possibilities & Opponents: One looks better and the other still average

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It is an awkward time of year when looking outward. Most of Notre Dame’s opponents are not inherently good, and the College Football Playoff selection committee has long made it clear it cares most about good victories, not just okay wins or bad losses.

Meanwhile, that committee does not release its first ranking for another six days, so any suggestions of the national pecking order are conjecture at best, perhaps educated conjecture, but based largely in speculation, nonetheless.

Oh, and the engine behind this space has learned to never again host a bachelor party during football season because the food poisoning gods are undefeated in ways even Alabama cannot imagine. An awkward time of year, indeed.

Thus, for at least this week, let’s combine the look at the Irish opponents with the Playoff possibilities, minimizing them both as we bide our time until the first committee reveal on Tuesday.

Doug, I know you hate all of the pointless polls that come out before the Committee begins its meetings, and if I recall, you don’t care much for the early versions of the Committee polls either. But, if forced to engage in speculation regarding these meaningless events, what is your prediction about where the Irish land in the first poll? — Matthew C.

To be fair, Matt sent that in a little more than 24 hours before Ohio State lost to Purdue, removing some of the impetus to the question. Personally, I was not far from a Cajun dinner that may or may not be the source of my downfall this week.

To be clear, I do not have any issue with the early Committee polls. I do have issue with overreaction to items that will obviously sort themselves out. As an example, let’s say the Buckeyes had not lost, and the Committee put both Ohio State and Michigan directly in front of Notre Dame at No. 5. There would be an outcry, an unnecessary one. The Buckeyes and Wolverines play each other the final week of the regular season. It would seem safe to presume the loser would drop below the Irish. No need to be upset. The disrespect is not real. Also, that was an impossible hypothetical.

To offer an answer, Notre Dame should come in at No. 3 next week, barring any monumental occurrences this weekend. Unless granting real credence to Navy in a down year, the only chance of such an upset would come in Tallahassee, and let’s not go giving Willie Taggart too much credit on a one-game winning streak. (Wait, it can’t be a streak if it is only one? Whoops.)

To continue to the answer that matters, who will loom at Nos. 4 and 5? LSU and Michigan, in some order. Of note: LSU still has to face Alabama and Texas A&M (on the road) while Michigan awaits both Penn State and Ohio State (on the road). Even the Big-12 one-loss trio cannot result in more than one of them running the table.

This is where the Ohio State loss was a big deal for Irish concerns. It not only fell an unbeaten, but it reduced the possible pool of one-loss headaches in a tangible way. Rather than both Michigan and Ohio State conceivably finishing the season with one-loss and both elbowing out a one-loss Notre Dame, now only one can. Only one (non-‘Bama) SEC team can finish the regular season with as few as one loss. Only one Big 12 team can. Get the idea?

Even in the cleanest of conclusions, a path is emerging for the Irish to cruise to the Playoff even with a loss.

Now then, to those opponents, obviously beginning with …

Michigan (7-1): Overblown and obnoxious antics stole the headlines in Michigan’s 21-7 win at Michigan State, but the game itself was a lesson in dominance. The Wolverines had the ball for 41:03 and gave up only 94 total yards. Even though they lost the turnover battle 2-1, they cruised. In fact, one of those turnovers set up the Spartans for a 7-yard touchdown drive, their only points of the day.

Those off-the-field storylines will continue for the week in Ann Arbor, given the idle week in those parts.

Ball St. (3-5): The Cardinals lost 42-20 vs. Eastern Michigan, and even that includes Ball State breaking an 80-yard touchdown run with two minutes to go.

Ball State hosts Ohio (Thursday; 7 ET; CBSSN) as 10.5-point underdogs with a combined point total over/under of 64. Just enjoy the weekday football.

Vanderbilt (3-5): This space projected the Commodores would not score 19 against Kentucky, and that was accurate, but it would be a lie to call that anywhere near precise. Vanderbilt nearly upset Kentucky, falling only 14-7.

As a result, the ‘Dores are favored this weekend, just the fourth time they have been favored in an SEC game during Derek Mason’s five-year tenure. Hosting Arkansas (12ET; SEC Network) with a 1.5-point edge hints at a 27-25 result.

Wake Forest (3-4): The Deacons fell 38-17 at Florida State after jumping to a 10-0 lead. They now head to Louisville (12 ET) as 2.5-point underdogs with a lofty over/under of 65.

Stanford (5-2): Outgained by 101 yards, the Cardinal forced three turnovers and held onto the ball for 38:17 to beat Arizona State 20-13 on Thursday. Its Pac-12 North fate may be on the line this week against Washington State (7 ET; Pac 12 Network). Somewhat surprisingly, Stanford is favored by a field goal with an over/under of 53 suggesting a 28-25 result.

Virginia Tech (4-2): After a week off, Virginia Tech will get another long week once done hosting Georgia Tech on Thursday (7:30 ET; ESPN). As three-point favorites, the Hokies are expected to handle the triple-option to the tune of 31-28.

Pittsburgh (3-4): Duke is rarely given the credit it deserves for being a solid football program, and that shows in the spread setting Pittsburgh as only a 2.5-point underdog (3:30 ET) with an over/under of 46. Expect the Blue Devils to enjoy more of a cushion than 24-22.

Navy (2-5): Statistically, it looks like a normal Navy output, rushing for 349 yards on 67 carries, a 5.2 average, but it was not enough to overcome Houston’s 413 passing yards in a 49-36 Cougars victory.

Navy now hosts Notre Dame in San Diego (8 ET; CBS) in a game that had its time slot determined back in the summer. The Irish are favored by 23.5 with an over/under of 54 speaking to a 39-15 finale.

Northwestern may have finally found a running attack in Isaiah Bowser, who took 24 carries for 108 yards and two touchdowns against Rutgers, including the game-winning, fourth-quarter score. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images)

Northwestern (4-3): It is a result of the schedule that the Wildcats remain in the division title conversation in the Big Ten West, but they do thanks to an 18-15 victory at Rutgers. Ahh, 2018, when “Big Ten West” and “Rutgers” logically fit in the same sentence.

Northwestern’s title hopes will be on the line against Wisconsin this weekend (12 ET; FOX) as touchdown underdogs with an over/under of 51. That feels like too many total points. This is still Big Ten West football, right?

Florida State (4-3): With the 38-17 victory against Wake Forest, the Seminoles are averaging 32.5 points per game in their last four games. They will need every one of those against Clemson (12 ET; ABC) as 16.5-point underdogs. The over/under of 51 indicates Florida State may hardly reach half that average, an expected final score of 34-17.

Syracuse sophomore Tommy DeVito may have wrested away the starting quarterback job from four-year starter Eric Dungey over the weekend. (Scott Schild/The Post-Standard via AP)

Syracuse (5-2): The Orange needed double overtime to beat North Carolina 40-37, turning to sophomore quarterback Tommy DeVito to do so, benching four-year starter Eric Dungey. Their Saturday stat lines:
Dungey: 17-of-33 for 225 yards; 15 rushes for 42 yards and a score.
DeVito: 11-of-19 for 181 yards and three touchdowns.

Head coach Dino Babers has yet to commit to either quarterback against N.C. State (7 ET; ESPN2), indicating he has some loyalty to a four-year starter who has played through injuries throughout his career. Syracuse is a 2.5-point underdog, but that line will move quickly if a starter is leaked, especially if it is DeVito.

USC (4-3): The story is about the Trojans’ quarterbacks getting banged up. That ignores the fact that their defense gave up 541 yards, 27 first downs and 34 unanswered points in a 41-28 loss at Utah.

Arizona State (3:30 ET; ABC/ESPN2) will look to rack up similar damage even though USC is favored by 6.5 with an over/under of 54.5.

Thursday 7 p.m. ET: Ball State vs. Ohio on CBSSN.
Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech on ESPN.
Saturday 12 p.m. ET: Vanderbilt at Arkansas on SEC Network; Wake Forest at Louisville; Northwestern vs. Wisconsin on FOX; Florida State vs. Clemson on ABC.
3:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh vs. Duke; USC vs. Arizona State on ABC/ESPN2.
7 ET: Stanford vs. Washington State on Pac 12 Network; Syracuse vs. N.C. State on ESPN2.
8 ET: Navy vs. Notre Dame on CBS

Favorites: Vanderbilt -1.5; Stanford -3; Virginia Tech -3; USC -6.5
Underdogs: Ball State +10.5; Wake Forest +1.5; Pittsburgh +2.5; Navy +23.5; Northwestern +6.5; Florida State +16.5; Syracuse +2.

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Reports: Tommy Rees heads to Alabama after 10 total years at Notre Dame

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: APR 23 Notre Dame Spring Game
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If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

Tommy Rees will leave Notre Dame to do just that, heading to be the offensive coordinator at Alabama, according to reports Friday afternoon. Nick Saban and the Tide denied Rees a national championship as a player in 2012 and a title game appearance as an offensive coordinator in 2020.

The South Bend Tribune‘s Mike Berardino first reported Rees’s decision, coming a day after reports initially surfaced that Rees was Alabama’s preferred choice for the gig, and he had flown to Tuscaloosa to consider the position.

Those unbeaten regular seasons, along with one in 2018 as the Irish quarterbacks coach, were the high points of Rees’ total of a decade with the Notre Dame football program. Like his former head coach, he will now head to the SEC chasing a higher peak.

Of course, Rees spurned Brian Kelly’s invite to join him at LSU last winter, instead memorably telling the Irish offensive players, “I’m [bleepin’] staying,” setting the tone for the first week of Marcus Freeman‘s tenure as Notre dame head coach.

RELATED READING: Tommy Rees turns down Brian Kelly’s LSU overture and will remain at Notre Dame
Jack Swarbrick, Marcus Freeman and Tommy Rees brought stability to Notre Dame long before and obviously after Brian Kelly sowed chaos

Alabama made an offer Rees could not refuse, even if a year ago he said, “I love this place (Notre Dame). I believe that we can win a national championship here, and I’m committed to doing everything we can to get to that point.”

Going to Tuscaloosa does not render those words empty. Rees is going to work for the greatest college football coach in history in a role that has repeatedly springboarded coaches to better opportunities. Since Saban arrived at Alabama in 2007, his offensive coordinators have gone on to be, in chronological order, the assistant head coach at Texas (Major Applewhite), head coach at Colorado State (Jim McElwain), offensive coordinator at Michigan (Doug Nussmeier), head coach at Florida Atlantic (Lane Kiffin), head coach at Texas (Steve Sarkisian) and offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots (Bill O’Brien).

Thus, Rees is bettering both his chances at a national title in the short term and his presumed path to whatever gig he wants next in the long term.

He leaves Notre Dame after three seasons as the Irish offensive coordinator, which came after three years as the quarterbacks coach. The Irish have ranked No. 41, No. 19 and No. 30 in scoring offense the last three seasons, peaking with 35.2 points per game in 2021, the second-highest total in Brian Kelly’s tenure.

But perhaps Rees’s finest moment as a Notre Dame assistant came when he finessed a mid-season quarterback switch to Ian Book from Brandon Wimbush despite the Irish remaining unbeaten throughout 2018. In some respects, Rees threaded a similar needle in 2021, incorporating Wisconsin graduate transfer Jack Coan, then-freshman Tyler Buchner and spot-reliever Drew Pyne; each quarterback could be credited as responsible for at least one win as the Irish made a Playoff push.

Then this past season, Rees responded to Buchner’s shoulder sprain that cost him 10 games by working with Pyne to piecemeal an offense.

From December of 2021:

Rees has considered leaving his alma mater before, reportedly interviewing to be Miami’s offensive coordinator in recent years, not to mention weighing Kelly’s offer from LSU 14 months ago, as well as a previous brief dalliance with Alabama a few years ago.

After leading Notre Dame’s offense in one way or another for 10 of the last 13 years, Rees has finally opted to do so elsewhere. It just so happens to be as part of the team that twice turned back the Irish and now faces Kelly every fall.

Opportunities abound for Tommy Rees, earned recognition after a decade at Notre Dame

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A lot of people go to college for seven years. For Tommy Rees, it has been 10 years at Notre Dame, so to speak.

Whether or not Rees leaves his alma mater this week, as multiple Thursday reports indicated Rees is the frontrunner to be Alabama’s next offensive coordinator, there is no bad choice in front of him. Either Rees returns as the Irish offensive coordinator for a fourth season, continues his pursuit of winning a national championship at Notre Dame after three postseason trips already in his career, or he learns under the best college football coach in history in a position that has springboarded coaches to greener pastures for about a decade now.

Irish fans may spend most of their falls criticizing Rees’s play calls, but he is clearly someone well-respected in the coaching community. Seen as a future coach when he was a player and then navigating multiple delicate quarterback situations at Notre Dame, this is not the first time Nick Saban has chased Rees. He reportedly did so following the 2019 season, when Rees had not even spent a day as an offensive coordinator.

Instead, Rees took over that gig in South Bend, losing to Alabama in the 2020 College Football Playoff, albeit a more competitive showing than when Rees and the Irish fell to the Tide in the 2012 title game. Miami sought Rees in recent years, and whispers of vague NFL interest have popped up more offseasons than not.

If most of those people who go to college for seven years are called doctors, then Rees has put together a doctorate-level intellect evidenced by who wants to hire him. Alabama publicly sending a branded plane to South Bend to ferry Rees for a visit on Thursday underscored that reputation.

Set aside the forced references to “Tommy Boy” — though the similarities do go past the first name and to a Catholic university in the Midwest — and realize Rees will leave Notre Dame at some point, probably sooner than later.

Maybe he joins Saban this weekend. Alabama needs to navigate a first-year starter at quarterback next year in a conference that quickly seemed to catch up to the Tide last season, with both LSU and Tennessee staking claims as competitors with Georgia already clearly out in front and Mississippi in the mix. Competing with former Irish head coach Brian Kelly every year would make for juicy headlines, but what speaks louder to Rees’s credit is that this is the time Saban wants to snag him, when Alabama’s footing may be less secure than at any point since the ‘00s.

Maybe Rees returns to Notre Dame, teams with Wake Forest graduate transfer quarterback Sam Hartman to ready for three top-10 matchups in 2023, and gets the Irish into the College Football Playoff for a third time in six years with the only constant quite literally being Rees.

Oh, and both scenarios should come with plenty of money.

Rees has no bad choice in front of him. That is a credit to him, even if fans would rather lampoon him than step back and acknowledge the intricacies of playcalling.

If he heads to Alabama, the annual matchups with LSU will become delightful fodder from afar. His Notre Dame legacy will include “Call duo until you can’t speak,” his emphatic play call when he left the coaches’ booth early as the Irish upset Clemson this past November, and “I’m [bleepin’] staying,” Rees’s declaration to the offensive players last December amid a week of tumult.

If he stays in South Bend, the next matchup with anyone in the SEC, most likely a 2023 bowl game, will drip with an on-field chance at validation. That legacy will include spurning college football’s best not once, but twice.

For a quarterback who lost his starting job at Notre Dame not once (2011 preseason), but twice (2012 preseason), some pride has been earned. Saban’s stamp of approval carries all the weight needed in college football to assure someone of their professional standing.

It may have taken a decade, but Rees can now know he belongs with the best, no matter what decision he makes this weekend.

The lull of National Signing Day underscores need to move the early signing period

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The early-morning chaos of today’s National Signing Day did not disappear with the implementation of the December “early” signing period in the 2018 recruiting cycle. It just moved six weeks earlier.

In 2014, waking up at 6:45 a.m. ET to be logged on and publishing at 7 a.m. led to noticing one expected recruit had not yet signed with Notre Dame by 8 a.m. Pointing that out and reminding the world Michigan State was making a late push led to an Irish media relations staffer reaching out to quietly say something to the extent of, “Just letting the young man have his moment at school.”

In 2017, less than two weeks after taking over this gig, waking up at 3 a.m. CT to churn through 2,000 words before signings could begin becoming official eventually led to napping through Brian Kelly’s Signing Day press conference.

Nothing changed 10 months later. That December, the afternoon of Dec. 22, the Friday before Christmas, was spent waiting for receiver Braden Lenzy to officially choose Notre Dame over Oregon. Sitting at your parents’ kitchen table not helping your niece make a gingerbread house because recruiting-obsessed fans harassed a player through two de-commitments is not a strong way to conjure up holiday spirit.

Coaches across the country advocated for the earlier signing period, claiming it would allow high-school seniors to make their collegiate decisions official earlier on in their senior years, particularly when the prospects had already made up their minds on where to play football at the next level. That was all optics, if even that.

These high schoolers now make their decision official just six weeks earlier. In the preps football calendar, those six weeks are meaningless. Both the December signing period and today, the traditional National Signing Day, come well after the high-school seasons have ended.

The truth was, coaches across the country did not want to tend to their solid commitments over Christmas and New Year’s, particularly not amid bowl prep. It was self-serving at best and short-sighted at worst.

First of all, when the December signing period became reality in 2017, one-time transfers were not yet allowed without losing eligibility the following season. Secondly, no one predicted the early signing period would lead to the coaching carousel beginning earlier and earlier in the season. September firings used to be the result of only off-field scandals, not outright expected from half a dozen programs each fall. Athletic directors now want that headstart on hiring a new coach so he can have time before the December signing period commences.

Exhibit A: Notre Dame may have ended up with Marcus Freeman as its head coach after Brian Kelly’s abrupt departure following the 2021 season, but if the primary signing date had not been lingering just a few weeks away, Kelly likely would not have jumped to LSU before the College Football Playoff field was set, and Irish director of athletics Jack Swarbrick would have taken more time in choosing his next head coach, more than the 48 hours he used last December. After all, Swarbrick took 10 days in hiring Kelly in 2009.

Lastly, with a 12-team Playoff coming in 2025, December will become only more hectic.

Those head coaches who wanted a little less stress over the holidays will then have to deal with, in chronological order:

— Keeping their own jobs.
— Securing their recruiting classes in the days immediately preceding Christmas.
— Preparing their teams for bowl games.
— Preparing their teams for up to four games if in the Playoff.
— Re-recruiting any players considering entering the transfer portal before the winter window closes.
— Winning a bowl game.
— Retaining their coaching staffs.
— Oh, and celebrate the holidays with their families, as was their want when they hollered for the early signing period.

Most of those tasks are immutable and inherent to the sport.

But one can move. It already has once.

The logic is too clear. Nothing was gained in moving up the primary signing date by six weeks. And sanity was lost.

This is, of course, a sport that prefers to ignore logic, but usually that is charming. A mustard bottle on the field is quirky; lacking a worthwhile voice of authority is stubbornly stupid.

So the early signing period may not move as soon as it should (now), but it will move. There are no anti-trust worries tied to it, fortunately.

And aside from the logic, cramming more content into December costs the media, too. Spreading out that context through the vacuum of mid-January to mid-March will be much appreciated.

Leftovers & Links: An early look at Notre Dame’s seven commits in the class of 2024, including QB CJ Carr

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The traditional National Signing Day is this Wednesday, and for yet another year, Notre Dame has no intentions of inking any high-school recruits on the first Wednesday of February. The recruiting calendar has so changed that the Irish have not signed a recruit in February since 2021, when running back Logan Diggs pondered a late LSU push before doubling down on his Notre Dame commitment. Before that, not since 2019, when defensive end Isaiah Foskey publicly did so in order to be a part of his high school’s ceremonies.

Notre Dame turned its focus entirely onto the class of 2024 following December’s early signing period, when it inked a class of 24 players that ranks No. 9 in the country, per rivals.com.

Now with nearly 10 months to go before the next decision day to influence the narrative around Irish head coach Marcus Freeman’s recruiting focus, he already has pledges from seven players in the class of 2024. Class rankings this early in the cycle are rather meaningless, but for the sake of thoroughness, the Notre Dame class of 2024 is currently ranked No. 2 in the country, behind only Georgia with nine recruits pledged to date.

One player stands out among the early Irish seven. He stands out to such a degree this space broke from usual form when he committed in early June. To pull from that opening,

“This space has a general rule to not report on recruiting developments classes ahead of time. Worrying about the thoughts of high school seniors is enough of an oddity; focusing on juniors and underclassmen is outright absurd.

“But exceptions exist to prove rules, and Notre Dame landing the commitment of the No. 3 quarterback in the class of 2024 — prospects entering their junior years of high school — is such an exception.”

Consensus four-star quarterback CJ Carr is now only the No. 4 pro-style quarterback in the class and the No. 14 recruit overall, but he is the kind of key piece to a recruiting class that the Irish lacked in 2023, despite Freeman’s continued excellence hauling in defensive prospects. Carr has been an active and vocal recruiter on his own for Notre Dame, not an unusual occurrence from an early commit but a habit the Irish have not garnered out of a quarterback in quite some time. Even Tyler Buchner, due to both the pandemic and his own soft-spoken nature, was not the loudest campaigner among his peers.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame beats out Michigan for Lloyd Carr’s grandson, QB CJ Carr

At 6-foot-3, Carr looks the part of a prototypical quarterback, and his arm strength fits in line with that thought. He has downfield touch that would open up Notre Dame’s playbook in a way entirely unseen in 2022.

The other six early commitments to the Irish in the class of 2024 …

Consensus four-star running back Aneyas Williams (Hannibal High School; Mo.), ranked as the No. 1 all-purpose running back and No. 106 recruit in the class, per rivals.com: There will be many comparisons to former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams when Aneyas Williams arrives on campus, and though they are from the same state, there is no relation. The younger Williams can do a bit of everything while his 5-foot-10 frame carries plenty of punch. He lacks truly elite speed, as Kyren did, but obviously that did not kept the elder Williams from cracking 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons.

Consensus four-star receiver Cam Williams (Glenbard South H.S.; Glen Ellyn, Ill.), ranked as the No. 11 receiver and No. 102 recruit in the class: The Chicagoland product visited Iowa a handful of times and took looks at Michigan and Wisconsin, seemingly intent on staying in the Midwest. Williams has all the fundamentals wanted of a receiver, 6-foot-2 size combined with a comfort catching the ball. Time will reveal what part of his game, if any, develops into his specialty.

Consensus four-star tight end Jack Larsen (Charlotte Catholic; N.C.), ranked as the No. 7 tight end and No. 187 recruit in the class: Whether Larsen will be the next piece of “Tight End U” or not is a premature thought, but at 6-foot-3 and an ability to snag passes downfield over defenders, Larsen already looks the part. Credit a basketball background for that aerial ability.

Four-star offensive guard Peter Jones (Malvern Prep; Penn.), ranked as the No. 4 offensive guard and No. 99 recruit in the class: Jones plays tackle in high school, nearly an absolute requirement for any offensive line prospect chased by Irish offensive line coach Harry Hiestand, but his playing style suggests a future on the inside of the line.

Consensus four-star defensive tackle Owen Wafle (Hun School; Princeton, N.J.), ranked as the No. 10 defensive tackle in the class: Pronounced like playful, not waffle, Wafle should add weight to his 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame as he grows from a high-school junior into a college player. That may seem obvious, but the quality of that weight he adds in the next 20 months will be what most determines how quickly he can contribute in South Bend.

Consensus three-star cornerback Karson Hobbs (Archbishop Moeller; Cincinnati): Anyone committed right now has made a decision relatively early in the recruiting cycle, yet Hobbs was committed to South Carolina for three months before he flipped to Notre Dame in early November. Seeking out a committed three-star more than a year before he can officially sign may strike one as foolish, but Irish cornerbacks coach Mike Mickens has earned some leeway in his evaluations, given the early impacts of Benjamin Morrison and Jaden Mickey in 2022.

INSIDE THE IRISH
Ohio State, Clemson & Pittsburgh hurt most by early NFL draft entrants among Notre Dame’s opponents
40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part I: Notre Dame’s rushing offense hid many early struggles
Part II: Notre Dame’s upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach
Part III: Notre Dame’s November far from the expected disappointment
Part IV: Notre Dame’s 2022 ended where it was always expected to

OUTSIDE READING
How QB Sam Hartman found trouble with turnovers in 2022
College QB Austin Reed got transfer portal offers comparable to late-round NFL draft picks
I requested my Notre Dame admissions file
Boston College, offensive coordinator John McNulty parting ways after 2022 struggles
Hamlin’s injury highlights precarious position of many young N.F.L. players
On the Broncos’ head-coaching finalists
Bally Sports RSNs headed for bankruptcy
Auditor: LSU overpaid Brian Kelly by more than $1M in 2022