Notre Dame’s Playoff Possibilities: No. 3 or No. 4 hardly changes realities

By Douglas FarmerOct 31, 2018, 6:00 AM EDT

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With Notre Dame landing at No. 4 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, your umbrage is expected. It is also unwarranted.

“Does this matter, this one?” Irish head coach Brian Kelly pointed out Tuesday afternoon. “Do they put you in the Playoffs for this one? I don’t think so.”

His point is both valid and learned. Notre Dame has appeared in the selection committee’s top tier in two of the last three years, but has not yet made a Playoff.

“We’ve been down this road before,” Kelly said. “We’ve been selected for this one, but it doesn’t get you anything. For us, the one that we’re interested in, the one that we’ll watch, probably we’ll watch it as a team, is the last one.”

If the 8-0 Irish reach that last ranking with four more wins, they will be in a Dec. 29 semifinal. Anyone claiming otherwise simply wants your attention and should instead be ignored. The first excluded undefeated Power Five team will not be the only one not needing a conference to be considered Power Five. As much as Notre Dame’s schedule has softened, it still includes 10 major conference opponents, including three, and perhaps four, ranked at the time of meeting. It is not Central Florida’s path.

The debris around the Irish finishing unbeaten is cause for concern in other spaces. For example, the answer to this situation could be debated far longer than this endless space has room for words.

What happens when LSU beats Bama, and everyone wins out after that. 1 loss Bama w/ a loss to 1 loss LSU undefeated Clemson and 1 loss Big10 champ Michigan? Who is out?

— Patrick Cotter (@pjcND23) October 31, 2018

For anyone partial to punctuation, Patrick’s situation boils down to No. 3 LSU topping No. 1 Alabama this weekend and then no more upsets occurring at the top of the polls this season. That would leave a 13-0 ACC champion Clemson, a 12-0 Notre Dame, a 12-1 SEC champion LSU, a 12-1 Big Ten champion Michigan and an 11-1 Alabama. One of those last two likely misses the Playoff. Just rest assured, it would not be the 12-0 Irish. If you want to argue otherwise, please do so elsewhere. You are just wasting everyone’s time.

An LSU victory this weekend, however, is the first step toward a one-loss Notre Dame heading to the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day. For this scenario, let’s posit the Irish lose to Northwestern (7:15 ET; ESPN) this weekend and then win their final three games. Two possibilities unfold.

LIKELY IN: Both Alabama and Clemson run the table, thereby eliminating the rest of the SEC and ACC. Notre Dame then joins a handful of one-loss teams fighting over those final two spots.

— Either Michigan or Ohio State escapes the Big Ten with one loss. For the No. 5 Wolverines, that would require beating No. 14 Penn State this weekend and then winning at Ohio State to close the regular season before the Big Ten title game, which should be a distant third in terms of worries. The No. 10 Buckeyes have a trip to Michigan State on Nov. 10 before hosting Michigan.

— Either Oklahoma or West Virginia wins the Big 12 with one loss. The No. 7 Sooners still have to go to Texas Tech, host Oklahoma State and head to West Virginia before a rematch with (likely) either the Longhorns or the Mountaineers in a title game. No. 13 West Virginia heads to No. 17 Texas this weekend before TCU visits, then a trip to Oklahoma State precedes the Oklahoma finish. Suffice it to say, the Mountaineers’ remaining calendar is on the short list for toughest remaining in the country.

— Can No. 8 Washington State finish its Pac-12 slate with just one loss? The only real remaining concern is the Apple Cup on Nov. 23. Even the Pac-12 title game should be a laugher given the state of the South.

At most, those four teams would campaign for two spots. Given the Cougars non-conference schedule featured Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, it is not a leap to write them off outright. To end this debate then, the slightest bit of unevenness in the Big Ten or 12 would suffice. That is exceedingly likely, especially in a conference featuring a round-robin followed by a conference title game rematch.

WELL THEN, LIKELY OUT: There are two versions of this story, but both involve two SEC teams making the Playoff and one of them being a one-loss Alabama. Either a loss to LSU this weekend or a loss to No. 6 Georgia (or, technically speaking, No. 9 Kentucky) in the conference title game would set this up. Whoever beats the Tide is going to get in if they have just one loss, and the eye test should push Alabama past its lagging résumé.

Then, for the sake of the exercise, presume Clemson finishes 13-0. Only one spot would remain. An 11-1 Notre Dame would not be able to count on the proper two-steps to occur in both the Big Ten and 12.

WAIT, WHY DOES AN 11-1 NOTRE DAME SO QUICKLY FALL BELOW ONE-LOSS MICHIGAN OR OKLAHOMA OR WEST VIRGINIA OR MAYBE OHIO STATE?
For the same reason the Irish would probably stay above Washington State. It is all about how many good wins you have. Notre Dame would finish with a win over the Wolverines, and that may be it as far as the selection committee is concerned. Even if arguing “teams above .500,” the Irish schedule is likely to finish with just five (Michigan, Stanford, Northwestern, Syracuse, USC).

Comparisons?

Michigan: Conceivably wins over both Penn State and Ohio State, not to mention perhaps two over Wisconsin, and seven total over Power Five teams with records better than .500.
Ohio State: Possibly wins over both Penn State and Michigan, plus the Big Ten West victor.
Oklahoma: Could end up with wins over No. 24 Iowa State, West Virginia and either Texas or the Mountaineers again, along with five victories over teams above .500.
West Virginia: A one-loss finish would feature wins against No. 17 Texas and the Sooners, plus a title game opponent to be determined, and six wins against teams better than .500.

*If anyone faces an uphill climb to the College Football Playoff, it is Mike Leach and No. 8 Washington State. (Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr/Getty Images)*

Washington State: As far as the committee is concerned, only the Cougars’ Sept. 29 win against No. 15 Utah qualifies as impressive. No one else in the Pac-12 is ranked. If Washington State exceeds five wins against teams better than .500, it will only be because the conference could limp its way toward an infinite number of 7-5 finishes.

The debate does not focus on the week-in, week-out challenge of a schedule. It focuses on the peaks and the climbs toward them. Through no fault of its own, Notre Dame’s calendar does not include many peaks this year. Blame Jimbo Fisher’s recruiting at Florida State. Blame Clay Helton’s end at USC. Blame whatever has happened to Stanford’s running game. But do not claim the Irish schedule’s toughest parts are tougher than Michigan’s, Oklahoma’s or West Virginia’s.

But again, none of this matters if Notre Dame wins the next four games. And by the way, none of this would have changed if the Irish were ranked ahead of LSU, so go ahead and file those complaints in the mailbox beneath your desk. It is oddly shaped like a garbage can.

PLAYOFF GAMES OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND:
No. 1 Alabama at No. 3 LSU; 8 ET; CBS.
No. 2 Clemson vs. Brian VanGorder’s Louisville defense; 12 ET; ABC.
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 14 Penn State; 3:45 ET; ESPN.
No. 6 Georgia at No. 9 Kentucky; 3:30 ET; CBS.
No. 7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech; 8 ET; ABC.
No. 8 Washington State vs. Cal; 10:45 ET; ESPN.
No. 13 West Virginia at No. 17 Texas; 3:30 ET; FOX.

Why no discussion of No. 12 Central Florida and its 20-game winning streak? Maybe the Knights deserve a spot in the Playoff (at least in the conversation), but it just is not going to happen barring complete gridiron anarchy this November.

(Think of a scenario I’ve missed? All ears: insidetheirish@gmail.com)

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Georgia OL prospect the first commit for new Notre Dame OL coach Joe Rudolph

By Douglas FarmerMar 29, 2023, 4:49 PM EDT

@AnthonieKnapp55

New Notre Dame offensive line coach Joe Rudolph pulled in his first recruit by continuing to chase a prospect he initially wanted at his last job. Three-star offensive lineman Anthonie Knapp (Roswell High School; Ga.) committed to the Irish on Wednesday afternoon, picking Notre Dame over Rudolph’s former employer, Virginia Tech, as well as Georgia Tech and North Carolina.

In total, more than half the ACC offered Knapp a scholarship. The Irish offer came only this past weekend with Knapp in South Bend catching up with Rudolph, who was the first Power Five coach to offer a scholarship to Knapp back at Virginia Tech.

“The hospitality and the heritage it kept made the school stand out,” Knapp said to Inside ND Sports in a text message.

At 6-foot-5 and less than 270 pounds, Knapp will need to put on weight at the next level, though that can be said of most high school juniors. He played left tackle last season, but unless the weight piles on quickly and consistently, Knapp will most likely play guard at the next level.

His footwork already looks more fundamentally sound than most high schoolers display, all the more impressive because Knapp could simply rely on overpowering his opponents as most offensive line prospects understandably tend to do. Knapp is content to use his length and footwork to let a pass rusher charge upfield, well past the quarterback.

Strength and mass will come with age and entering a collegiate conditioning program, and Knapp needs both of those, but length is uncoachable and footwork fundamentals hold up early careers as often as lack of strength does.

He is the second offensive lineman in the class, joining four-star offensive guard Peter Jones, also a preps tackle that is expected to move inside in college.

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Leftovers & Links: Notre Dame’s biggest offensive progressions this spring will be smallest to spot from afar

By Douglas FarmerMar 28, 2023, 6:00 AM EDT

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When Marcus Freeman was first hired as Notre Dame’s head coach in December of 2021, it was widely expected he would retain three-fifths of his offensive coaching staff. Instead, promotions elsewhere awaited two of those coaches, leaving only Tommy Rees as a constant.

Then Rees and one-year returnee Harry Hiestand departed this offseason, meaning Freeman’s entire offensive coaching staff turned over — and the offensive line coach twice — within 15 months of that supposedly being a piece of stability he could lean on as a young first-time head coach. Yet, one thing has not changed about Freeman’s relationship with the offensive coaches: He is trying to stay out of their way.

“Most of the [newcomers] are on the offensive side of the ball, so really I just try to stay out of the way and let those guys meet,” Freeman said last week at the start of the Irish spring practices. “Give them time to be together. They’ve been together a lot and met a lot and really, you have to meet to get everybody on the same page. A lot of that is cohesion, that ability to view these guys as teammates.

“… I’ve been in there a bit, and then we have our staff meetings to make sure everybody understands our culture, understands our expectations. It’s not where it’s a finished product, but it’s definitely progressing to where we want to see it.”

A year ago, the cohesion Freeman was most worried about on the offensive side of the ball was between Rees and a pair of inexperienced quarterbacks. Now, it’s the collaboration between an offensive coordinator, a quarterbacks coach and an offensive line coach who had never worked together before a month or two ago. Freeman, of course, knew offensive coordinator Gerad Parker for more than a decade, quarterbacks coach Gino Guidugli for seven years and offensive line coach Joe Rudolph since Freeman’s playing days at Ohio State beginning in 2004.

That has been a common theme in Freeman’s hires, tying to former Notre Dame special teams coach Brian Mason, current cornerbacks coach Mike Mickens and defensive line coach Al Washington.

“There’s nothing more important than experience with somebody,” Freeman said. “I don’t have to wonder what this person is like when I’m not around. … When I can find a quality coach that I know can be the best at his profession, but also I have personal experience with them — I’m not saying we’re friends, but we’ve worked together. Coach Rudolph was at Ohio State when I was a player, but I knew what type of person he was.”

That is the commonality between those three new offensive hires, though a few pieces of similar backgrounds can be found between Parker and Guidugli. At 42 and 40, respectively, they both grew up in the Ohio River Valley and played college football along the same Kentucky-Ohio Interstate corridor. Parker then went straight into coaching while Guidugli knocked around the Canadian Football League and various iterations of short-lived secondary leagues in the United States until he went into coaching in 2010.

At the least, though, their formative years should have shared enough to lay a foundation now, the foundation upon which Freeman is counting on them to build an offense. That progression may be as important as any other made on the offensive side of the ball this spring.

After just one practice, Freeman saw value in a quarterbacks coach who can somewhat ignore the rest of the offense. Rees’s focus was assuredly on the quarterbacks, but Sam Hartman, Tyler Buchner & Co. are quite literally all Guidugli needs to concern himself with each day.

“When you take some of that responsibility off their plate, and it’s just coach the quarterbacks and see if they made the right decision because there’s so much that falls on [the quarterback’s] plate that isn’t really his fault,” Freeman said. “I know he gets the praise and he gets the criticism, but my biggest thing, did you make the right decision? That’s so important at the quarterback position.”

Parker thinks there may be more to the gig than the right decision. Wake Forest graduate transfer Sam Hartman should have little trouble with any intangibles of acclimating to a new campus and a new roster, even if he did not have to run many huddles with the Demon Deacons, but there will be one tangible shift to his quarterback play that Hartman might need to work on.

“Just in its simplest form, just taking snaps under center,” Parker said this weekend. “As simple as that. Just being able to secure a football under center.”

Parker wants to emphasize that because even as Notre Dame presumably opens up its offense a bit more with a deeper receivers room chasing passes from a stronger-armed quarterback, the Irish offense will still hinge on its veteran offensive line and trio of proven running backs.

Finding that balance can come in August. For now, finding that snap will be Hartman’s focus while Parker, Guidugli, Rudolph and a litany of offensive analysts strive to learn the same shorthand.

Shrewsberry: "I don't watch the NFL at all. I love college football. But I grew up a Notre Dame football fan. You don't know how many games Saturday afternoon I sat on the couch and turned it to NBC to watch it." https://t.co/Gj1o64K17n

— Tyler James (@TJamesND) March 25, 2023

INSIDE THE IRISH
— Sam Hartman’s practice debut features Notre Dame veteran Chris Tyree move to receiver, at least for now
— Thomas’ leadership, freshmen arrivals already improve Notre Dame’s receivers room
— Dynamic incoming freshman safety Brandyn Hillman exits Notre Dame before enrolling

A few facts for y'all:
1) Notre Dame's Blue-Gold Game is in less than one calendar month.
2) It is available exclusively via Peacock.
3) John Wick I, II and III are all on Peacock.
4) John Wick IV comes out today.

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) March 24, 2023

OUTSIDE READING
— Here’s the actually interesting thing about that Notre Dame NYT op-ed
— Notre Dame AD says NCAA could break apart without stronger NIL guidelines
— Ryan Bischel, Trevor Janicke will return next season for Notre Dame hockey
— 2023 NFL draft Big Board: PFF’s Top 150 prospects
— Bears tight end Cole Kmet fulfills promise, returns to Notre Dame for degree
— Increase in countable coaches rule reportedly unlikely to pass
— Timing rules changes proposed in football
— Men outnumber women at Notre Dame for the past 20 years, University denies gender quota
— 1 in 4 prospective students ruled out colleges due to their states’ political climates

This is one of the cooler things I've seen on campus in a long time. Good by whoever had the initial thought. https://t.co/kJBPQpup9Z

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) March 25, 2023

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Thomas’ leadership, freshmen arrivals already improve Notre Dame’s receivers room

By Douglas FarmerMar 24, 2023, 6:30 AM EDT

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As much criticism as Drew Pyne and Tommy Rees received for Notre Dame’s ground-bound offense last season, much of that approach was due to a reality beyond their control. The former Irish quarterback and offensive coordinator could not run the routes or catch the passes.

Notre Dame had few who could run the routes and among them, it seemed even fewer who could catch Pyne’s passes. Thus, the Irish threw for fewer than 200 yards in six games, not even reaching triple digits in the 35-14 upset of Clemson to start November. They threw 21 or fewer passes four times; raise that to 26 pass attempts and three more games qualify.

Of Notre Dame’s 192 completed passes in the regular season, 35 percent of them landed in the hands of tight end Michael Mayer. Another 22 percent found running backs. Six Irish receivers combined to catch 94 passes for 1,306 yards total last year. Seven receivers across the country caught 94 or more passes on their own in 2022, and three topped that yardage tally.

There simply were not ample options among the receivers for Rees to draw up plays with Pyne targeting them, particularly not after Avery Davis and Joe Wilkins were injured in the preseason, Deion Colzie was hampered in the preseason and Tobias Merriweather’s season would be cut short by a concussion.

The Irish moving running back Chris Tyree to at least a part-time role at receiver this spring will help solve that dearth but not nearly as much as the arrivals of Virginia Tech transfer Kaleb Smith and a trio of early-enrolled freshmen will. With them, Notre Dame has nine receivers on hand this spring, though who exactly leads them is a vague wonder.

Smith has the most collegiate experience with 74 career catches, and his size should place him into the starting lineup, but he is just as new in South Bend as early enrollees Rico Flores, Jaden Greathouse and Braylon James all are. Of the three rising juniors on the roster, each had a moment or two of note last season, but Jayden Thomas’s may have been the most consistent, finishing with 25 catches for 362 yards and three touchdowns.

“That’s the challenge I’ve had for that entire room,” Freeman said of finding a leader in the position group. “Guys that have been here. … I hope Jayden Thomas continues to excel on the field and then in his leadership roles.

“What he’s done in the weight room, I think he’s matured and said, okay, I can play at a higher level when I take care of my body or I’m at a weight I feel really comfortable at.”

Those were mostly generic platitudes, but Thomas’s 2022 stats alone are impressive enough to garner a leading role when dug into a bit. Of his 25 catches, 18 of them gained a first down. Of those 18, eight of them came on third down and another two were on second-and-long. If Notre Dame needed a chunk gain and Mayer was covered, Thomas was the most likely outlet.

That should give him pole position to be the boundary starter heading into 2023, with Colzie and/or Merriweather pressing him forward. Smith’s experience and size should pencil him in as the field starter, leaving the slot the question on the first unit for the next 14 spring practices.

Tyree could emerge there, but he is more likely to be a utility knife type of option, concealing any offensive alignment until the snap. Instead, rising junior Lorenzo Styles may get a chance at the slot. He has the tools if he has the focus.

Styles dropped six passes last season, more than anyone else on the roster and a bothersome number regardless of his final stats, but one that stands out in particular when realizing he caught only 30 passes for 340 yards and a score.

“It became I think mental last year,” Freeman said Wednesday. “Lorenzo Styles is a talented, talented football player, really talented. With him last year, it almost became a mental struggle, even just the basics of catching the ball.”

Last year, those mental struggles were enough to somewhat undo Notre Dame’s offense, because the Irish had no choice but to play Styles through his missteps. Now, whether it be injury or some headspace frustrations that Chuck Knoblauch could relate to, the Irish have some depth at receiver if needed. As the season progresses, that depth will become only stronger with the freshmen rounding into form.

“The young wideouts caught a couple balls, and it’s going to be good to see the progression of all those freshmen,” Freeman said. “They’re all going to be in different places on the road. That’s what I spend a lot of time talking to our team about, we’re all freshmen, you can’t compare your journey to this guy’s journey.”

Wherever those journeys are, they are welcome additions to Notre Dame’s offense. As much as newly-promoted offensive coordinator Gerad Parker will relish the luxury that is veteran quarterback Sam Hartman, simply having options on the perimeter for Hartman to look for should be an Irish improvement.

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Sam Hartman’s practice debut features Notre Dame veteran Chris Tyree move to receiver, at least for now

By Douglas FarmerMar 22, 2023, 12:48 PM EDT

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Marcus Freeman’s second spring as Notre Dame’s head coach has begun. As he pointed out Wednesday, it is quarterback transfer Sam Hartman’s sixth spring practice. Both are still looking around a bit for their proper cues, though Hartman’s hesitance now should be short-lived.

“He’s like a freshman, it’s new,” Freeman said. “I was joking with him, this is his sixth spring ball, but you’re at a new place, a new system, still figuring out where to go, what a drill is called, so you can see him at times just trying to say, ‘Okay, where are we going, what’s the drill, what are we doing, how many plays?’

“But he’s got some natural ability when he throws the ball and when he plays the game of football. You’ll see the leadership traits that he possesses grow because I know he has them. He’s a leader the first time you meet him. You can tell that he really commands respect.”

Freeman mentioned a “quarterback competition” between Hartman and rising junior Tyler Buchner only once, something that will reoccur throughout the next month, though more in name than in reality. Whoever takes the lead at quarterback, and it will be Hartman, will have a new target to get comfortable with in rising senior Chris Tyree.

Tyree spent the first spring practice working at receiver after lining up at running back the vast majority of the last three years. Freeman would not commit to that being a full-time shift for Tyree, but given the Irish depth at running back — led by rising juniors Audric Estimé and Logan Diggs, with rising sophomore Gi’Bran Payne the next in line for the spring while classmate Jadarian Price continues to “progress” from a torn Achilles last summer — Tyree working at receiver for the long-term should make some sense.

“He’s a guy that has multiple skill sets, and we know Chris Tyree is a guy we have to have on the football field,” Freeman said. “The ability to put him at wideout, we know what he can do as a running back, to really be a guy that can do multiple different things.”

Tyree took 100 rushes for 444 yards and three touchdowns and caught 24 passes for 138 yards and two more scores last year. The ball-carrying was a step forward compared to his previous seasons, but he caught 24 passes for 258 yards in 2021. In three games in 2022, Tyree gained more than 20 yards through the air. He was one of the more reliable pass-catchers on Notre Dame’s roster last season, finishing tied for fourth in receptions, one behind Jayden Thomas’s 25 catches and just six behind Lorenzo Styles, the leading returning receiver.

“You’re seeing more of that in college football and in the NFL,” Freeman said. “Guys that can play multiple different skill positions on offense, so do you treat him as a running back, do you treat him as a wideout? That’s what we have to do, and gain confidence in the quarterbacks in him as a wide receiver.”

Tyree’s shift was the most notable on the field on the first day of spring practices, but a handful of absences also stood out.

Junior linebacker Will Schweitzer, junior safety Justin Walters and junior quarterback Ron Powlus III have taken medical retirements, while junior cornerback Philip Riley, junior offensive lineman Caleb Johnson and junior kicker Josh Bryan are all no longer with the program, presumably each pursuing a transfer following this semester.

With those departures, Notre Dame’s roster now has 87 players on scholarship, two more than the NCAA maximum allowed when the season starts.

ON SPECIAL TEAMS COORDINATOR Marty Biagi
In hiring Marty Biagi from Mississippi, Freeman strayed from his usual habit of hiring coaches he has previous experience with. He did, however, have some mutual connections to reach out to about Biagi.

“I remember when we were playing Purdue when I was defensive coordinator (at Notre Dame in 2021), I was sitting in a special teams meeting, and they did some unique things on special teams.

“I still know some people back in West Lafayette from my time there, and he does, too. Somehow his name got brought up, so I was interested in interviewing him last year before I hired [former Irish special teams coordinator Brian Mason]. I didn’t know [Biagi] personally, but I had talked to him before, I knew enough about him. It’s important because you need to know when you’re not around, you can trust those guys that you’re working with.”

INJURY UPDATES
Defensive backs Cam Hart and Thomas Harper will both be held out of contact for at least the near future as they recover from winter shoulder surgeries, while early-enrolled defensive lineman Devan Houstan Will Likely miss all springtime work due to his own recent shoulder surgery.

Tight ends Eli Raridon and Kevin Bauman will not take part this spring due to ACL injuries in the fall.

Freeman expressed some optimism about Price’s timeline, but even that was measured.

“I don’t know if he will be full go, but he has done a lot of running and I see him progressing to more and more actual football practice.”

Given Price is still less than a calendar year from a ruptured Achilles, it is most likely he is limited well into the summer.

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