Friday at 4: 40 thanks to give, courtesy of Notre Dame’s unbeaten season

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LOS ANGELES — Hopefully, you spent yesterday forgetting about Notre Dame. On a day reserved for family, gluttony and the NFL, it would be understandable to focus the given thanks on mom’s cooking, dad’s reluctant sharing of the cheesy potatoes and the overall generosity of Matt Stafford.

That was yesterday. This is today. This is Friday, the afternoon before the No. 3 Irish can lock up their first bid to the College Football Playoff. If ever a Notre Dame season warranted thanks, it has been this one. Intermixed with what should be the thanks of an Irish fan, find the thanks of a writer covering Notre Dame. Combined, just more than three dozen appreciations. Thanks for …

— Beating Michigan to start the season. Without that win, the Irish never would have been in the mix as a Playoff contender, even if finishing 11-1. Losing a different game may have allowed for it, but without that win against the Wolverines, Notre Dame’s résumé would not have had enough meat on its bones, kind of like a turkey today.

— NBC’s ratings from that opener show just how much Irish fans were grateful for it even then, the most-watched Notre Dame game on NBC in 13 years with 7.195 million viewers.

In his first career game, sophomore Jafar Armstrong scored twice against Michigan, providing much of the end zone boost in the 24-17 Notre Dame victory. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

— Sophomore running back Jafar Armstrong ran for only 35 yards on 15 carries in the season opener, but he did score twice and his performance in the first four games of the year made the absence of senior Dexter Williams survivable. Rushing for 242 yards in that span had Armstrong on pace for nearly 1,000 yards this season before Williams’ return coincided with Armstrong missing three games due to a knee infection. He may not yet be back to full fitness, but Armstrong set the tone early, and in doing so preemptively eased some of next year’s running game concerns.

— The new NCAA rule allowing players to appear in up to four games before losing a year of eligibility. It does not actually change anything in the cases of sophomore defensive tackle Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa or freshman defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin, each sidelined by a broken foot early enough in the season the old standards would have still protected them, but it is nonetheless a good rule as a whole. Consider freshman defensive end Justin Ademilola: He has played in three games, made seven tackles and genuinely contributed to the defense. He could be heard from again against USC. Yet, he will still have a fifth year available to him in 2022. Given his potential, yet need for development, that is not a possibility to take lightly.

— Junior safety Jalen Elliott has four interceptions this season, but it was his pass breakup on Vanderbilt’s last drive that needs to be most-remembered. If Commodores receiver Kalija Lipscomb makes his 12th catch of the day, Vanderbilt would have been in the red zone with a viable chance of pulling off the upset. The Irish may not have recovered from that until 2019.

— Senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush led that win over Michigan with 229 total yards (247 if adjusting for sacks). Notre Dame managed only 302 total in that 24-17 victory. Wimbush went 4-0 on the field this season, raising his career record as a starter to 13-3.

— And then Irish head coach Brian Kelly benched Wimbush for junior Ian Book. That move has paid off so well, it seems more obvious in retrospect than it was. In a head coaching career covering nearly three decades, that may have been the riskiest decision in Kelly’s career, and it has worked. The whir of the season has deprived the gamble of receiving proper recognition.

— A big part of why that maneuver worked is how Wimbush handled it. After making the decision, Kelly admitted such dynamics cost him the locker room in 2016, two quarterbacks dividing the team. Wimbush has not stirred that pot. He has been the consummate teammate, a professional in every respect, and a winning substitute when needed against Florida State.

— Of course, the other reason Kelly’s switch has worked out so well has been the performance of Book, now No. 2 in the country in completion percentage. Quite simply, be it as a fan, an observer or a reporter, watching the Irish offense has been much more enjoyable with Book at the helm.

10 — Williams’ first run, a 45-yard touchdown to open the scoring against then-No. 7 Stanford, has been somewhat forgotten because of his excellence since. That dash set the tone in a huge-at-the-time win, and it could have been the moment best remembered from Williams’ career if he did not continue to produce week-in and week-out since. At this point, the peak was likely his three touchdowns and 178 yards at Virginia Tech, highlighted by that 97-yard touchdown to demoralize the Hokies.

— 16-ounce cans of Red Bull. A year ago the staple through the season was Five-Hour Energy, and it has proven reliable again this year, but that silver aluminum has been the 4-7 a.m. crutch throughout November.

— Sanity-preserving email filters. When begging for reader questions at insidetheirish@gmail.com, it inevitably brought about a litany of spam. Condemning that to eternal unread status has been quite the blessing.

— Notre Dame’s schedule this year was supposed to be too difficult. The lackluster seasons put forth by Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC all changed that, and fortunately so. If they had been what was expected entering the season, and Pittsburgh and Northwestern proved to be challenging top-25 teams, the slate really may have been too daunting, rather than evidently manageable.

— Speaking of schedules, thanks to the Ivy League for moving an early October game to a Friday evening right when the Irish were already headed to the Atlantic, allowing yours truly to pull off a convenient two-fer weekend.

— If Elliott saved the day against Vanderbilt, the entire Notre Dame defense did so against Pittsburgh. The Panthers gained 242 total yards, averaged 4.0 yards per play and 4.2 yards per pass attempt. That dismal offensive effort reduced the effect of their kickoff return touchdown, making it an unfortunate footnote in the story of 2018, not a stain on a season of lost Irish greatness.

— This appreciation will not be properly recognized until it can no longer be offered. In Kelly’s first five years at Notre Dame, his kickers hit 73.1 percent of their field goals, going 87-of-119. In the last four years, Justin Yoon has made 80.3 percent of his field goals, going 57-of-71.

— Drue Tranquill could have gone to the NFL. He had an engineering degree in hand, two surgically-repaired knees, and a good chance at a practice squad at the worst. Instead he returned for one more collegiate season, a high ankle sprain, a broken hand, 66 tackles and 3.5 sacks, and counting. His stubbornness, toughness and leadership have bound the Irish defense together perhaps as much as anything else.

Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello became very familiar with Jerry Tillery this September, much to Costello’s pain. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

— Jerry Tillery could have gone to the NFL. His length alone made him an intriguing pro prospect, someone worth taking a flyer on. Instead he returned for one more collegiate season and a chance to make plays at the three-technique, which he very much did with an Irish record four sacks against Stanford.

— Te’von Coney could have gone to the NFL. His stock was higher than ever considered following a junior season leading Notre Dame with 116 tackles, including 17 against LSU in the Citrus Bowl victory. Instead he returned for one more collegiate season and some further development, most notably in pass coverage, which showed itself a bit with an interception against Stanford.

20 — Coney’s 17 tackles on New Year’s Day stood out at the time, but he has since reached 14 twice (Ball State, Navy), showing that ball carrier-seeking showcase was not an anomaly. Since becoming a full-time starter against USC last year, Coney has racked up 173 tackles in 18 games.

— Promoting Clark Lea to defensive coordinator from linebackers coach was not a certain choice for Kelly. A first-year coordinator, Lea has made Kelly’s decision look brilliant. The Irish defense is allowing 17.3 points per game and deserves the credit for at least four wins this season when Notre Dame’s offense sputtered. Offensive coordinator Chip Long is a finalist for the Broyles Award, honoring the top assistant coach in the country, but Lea should get just as much recognition.

— This may not be a popular opinion. Rarely are seeming cash grabs later overshadowed by previous accomplishments. (Admittedly, that sentence was hardly a linear one.) But, let’s give a nod to Mike Elko. His exit to Texas A&M was not a good look, but he left Lea quite a defense to work with and clearly had prepared his protege to lead a team.

— 23-year-old rum enjoyed immediately after a massive Cajun dinner in New Orleans, the best drink in a weekend with more than a few libations.

— Vices, don’t undersell their virtue.

— The oversized bag check line available at NBA games, allowing the latter half of this very column to be typed a dozen rows up at Black Friday’s Los Angeles Clippers game. The “clear bag policy” at football games would never allow for this satisfied procrastination.

— That oversized bag policy is not just in effect at NBA games, having first been noticed at a Big East game at Madison Square Garden eight days ago. And no matter what the ACC or AAC may insist, Syracuse vs. Connecticut is Big East basketball.

— The ability to find an 800-square-foot dive bar in Midtown Manhattan and the empty stool there next to a Georgia native now considering going home for next year’s Irish arrival. That is a Georgia native in good standing in this space because she understood the difference between “for” and “about” without hearing the usual rant. We’ll have a drink then, and to stay true to form in these parts, let’s deem you “Claire.”

— The spread at Yankee Stadium. Major League Baseball does some things right.

— Notre Dame’s ability to stage a successful weekend in New York City: Notre Dame pulled off its Yankee Stadium showcase as only Notre Dame can.

The alternative? Syracuse lost a football game and two high-profile basketball games last weekend in the Big Apple, none of them particularly close defeats.

30 — The highlight videos put out each week by Fighting Irish Media, known as the “ICON” videos. In addition to the added camera angles on plays of note, there is almost always a small tidbit or two to enjoy, such as hearing an assistant coach (not entirely sure if it is cornerbacks coach Todd Lyght or safeties coach Terry Joseph) telling his secondary there are four more interceptions awaiting them against the Orange after Elliott snagged the first of what would become three for Notre Dame that day.

— NBC ratings all season were up 40 percent, to an average of nearly 3.5 million viewers. Broader appeal means more conversations at the bar means more enjoyable evenings, right? Those odds are best in Indianapolis; Columbus, Ohio; Fort Myers, Fla.; Dayton, Ohio; and Cincinnati, the top-five markets this season.

— Even streaming was up for NBC broadcasts of the Irish. Try to fathom this: 53.4 million minutes of Notre Dame football were streamed via one service or another this season.

— The ability to sleep on planes, if nowhere else.

— “… a barbershop quartet in Skokie, Illinois.”

— Sometimes you get one right. From this column a year ago: Khalid Kareem “will certainly land in next season’s ‘Counting Down the Irish.’ He did, at No. 10, a moment where those dozen beat writers got one right, as well. Kareem’s season of 37 tackles, with 10 for loss including 4.5 sacks, has made him one of this defense’s most-vital contributors.

— Kareem has managed that stat line despite “fighting through a little bit of an ankle” every week, per Kelly. That determination put Kareem among Notre Dame’s toughest players in Kelly’s mind, along with Tranquill (obviously), sophomore tight end Cole Kmet (ankle) and Book (ribs).

“We don’t have guys that we would say don’t want to go back out there and compete because they’re nicked up,” Kelly said. “If they can’t go, they’re going to give you 100 percent of their 80. … That’s a good thing that we’ve been able to instill.”

— External battery sources are already taken for granted, but they really have been a game-changer. Even this laptop charges off a pocket-sized battery on road trips, rendering hotel wall outlets pointless, if not a fire hazard.

— This should be a stress-free finish to the 2019 recruiting cycle, with 21 commits already in the fold and the early signing period less than a month away.

— A thank you to those who spend any time reading this space, though your judgment is questionable at best.

40 — Now go have a drink. The concession stands at Staples Center are open.

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40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part IV: Notre Dame’s 2022 ended where it was always expected to

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl - Notre Dame v South Carolina
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Notre Dame did not get there in any way expected, but the Irish season ended about where anticipated in the preseason. Psychological studies could spend hours disagreeing if it would have been better for Notre Dame to go 10-3 with its three losses coming to three top-10 teams or if a 9-4 season with a top-10 upset is better for Marcus Freeman’s program in the long-term.

But either scenario was going to end with the Irish in the Gator Bowl, a likelihood as far back as August.

To finish this recap of 40 preseason predictions

32) “A freshman defensive back will intercept a pass this season, becoming just the second freshman to do so” since 2017. Notre Dame’s defensive backfields have been far from liabilities during this resurgence since the 2016 faceplant, but they have lacked young playmakers, Kyle Hamilton aside.

Enter Benjamin Morrison and not one, not two, not three … but six interceptions in his freshman season. Unfortunately for your prognosticator, that does not equal six correct predictions. (15.5/32)

33) “The spread when the Irish visit the Trojans will be more than a field goal but less than a touchdown.” And indeed, USC was favored by four when Notre Dame visited the weekend after Thanksgiving, in what may have been the last visit the weekend after Thanksgiving. Logic says the Irish and Trojans will continue playing regularly, but USC’s joining the Big Ten in 2024 could change the timing of the meetings, and NCAA rule changes have removed Notre Dame’s want to be on the West Coast that particular week.

The Irish used to disperse their coaches from Washington to Arizona to recruit the Pacific time zone immediately after the season-ending game in California. In a literal sense, it saved those coaches 12-24 hours to not have to travel to Seattle or Phoenix from South Bend, particularly vital in a crucial recruiting window.

But now, the days after Thanksgiving are a dead period, so the coaches cannot make those visits. They flew back with the team this year.

Combine that with the Big Ten flux and perhaps Notre Dame starts heading to USC at a different point in the calendar in 2024. (16.5/33)

34) “USC will not make the College Football Playoff.”

Between this, suggesting Ohio State would make the Playoff and mistakenly thinking Clemson would, as well, these preseason predictions accurately predicted the season conclusions for two of the three biggest Irish opponents in 2022. Already suspect the 2023 version will include none of the three making the Playoff. (17.5/34)

35) Sophomore receiver Lorenzo Styles’ disappointing 2022 — 30 catches for 340 yards and one touchdown — cost him any semblance of NFL draft buzz a year before he is eligible for the draft. A breakout 2023 would obviously change that, but that was not the prediction. (17.5/35)

36) Blake Grupe fell two makes short of the predicted 80 percent field-goal rate, finishing at 73.7 percent on 14-of-19. A career 74.4 percent kicker before he arrived at Notre Dame, the Arkansas State graduate transfer’s 2022 fell in line with his career. (17.5/36)

37) Arguing Notre Dame would score fewer than 32.8 points per game in 2022 was based on the lack of depth at receiver, subsequently underscored by Styles’ struggles. Expecting the Irish to slow things down made a lower-scoring season a strong thought, though perhaps not as low as the 31.4 scored per game in 2018, the low of the last six years.

Notre Dame threaded that needle with 31.8 points per game, a number buoyed, though not shockingly, by the punt-block unit and Morrison’s contributions. (18.5/37)

38) The Irish had gone 54-10 in Brian Kelly’s final five years in South Bend, winning at least 10 games each year. Predicting a sixth season of double-digit wins was a mistake largely thanks to Audric Estimé’s fumble in the fourth quarter against Stanford. (18.5/38)

39) This final stretch of predictions focused on hitting a few tight windows. The spread against USC, the exact scoring average and … where Notre Dame would play in a bowl game.

“Notre Dame will play in Florida before New Year’s.”

As complicated as bowl scenarios get during the season and then even the week of selections with the Holiday Bowl in San Diego reportedly campaigning hard for the Irish, sticking with initial expectations would have been a smart travel-planning strategy. (19.5/39)

40) 

(20.5/40)

40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part I: Notre Dame’s rushing offense hid many early struggles
Part II: Notre Dame’s upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach
Part III: Notre Dame’s November far from the expected disappointment

40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part III: Notre Dame’s November far from the expected disappointment

Clemson v Notre Dame
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Recapping these preseason predictions bit by bit has emphasized how much of a see-saw Notre Dame’s 2022 was. They expected decent Irish success at Ohio State to open the season, which was realized. They then plainly assumed Notre Dame would continue to wallop overmatched opponents as Brian Kelly made the default.

Instead, Marcus Freeman stubbed his toe twice as first-year head coaches are wont to do, rendering that stretch of predictions largely flawed.

Now, the predictions tilt into early November, expecting little from the Irish. Of course, that was exactly when Freeman delivered the defining moment of his debut campaign.

21) “Notre Dame will top last year’s 41 sacks, which was a Kelly Era high. The Ademilola twins, junior defensive end Rylie Mills and at least one linebacker will each make at least three sacks.”

The first part of that fell inarguably short, 38 clearly less than 41. But the next sentence held more merit. Defensive end Justin Ademiloa and twin brother tackle Jayson Ademilola each had three sacks while Mills added 3.5. No linebacker reached three unless willing to still count Jordan Botelho as a linebacker with his 4.5 sacks. Given two of those came in the Gator Bowl when Botelho was clearly a defensive end, that would be generous grading. Instead, this entire prediction should be considered wrong, alas. (12/21)

22) Did this space continue publishing as planned after the Minnesota Timberwolves home opener? The running content calendar says a “Leftovers & Links” column ran on Oct. 20, the day after. Take the wins where you can find them, especially as a Timberwolves fan. (13/22)

23) The Irish had won 25 straight regular-season games against ACC opponents entering the season. Predicting that would reach 27 meant predicting Notre Dame would beat North Carolina and Syracuse. Check and check. (14/23)

24) That did not push the Irish into the top 10 of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, as predicted, thanks to the mishaps against Marshall and Stanford. (14/24)

25) And here comes a stretch of predictions predicated in pessimism, focused on how Notre Dame would fare against Clemson. The Irish had won 16 straight games in November entering the 2022 season. Suggesting that would end at 16 was suggesting Notre Dame would lose to Clemson on the first weekend of November.

Rather, that was the win in Freeman’s first season that will be long remembered. (14/25)

26) That expected loss was based on Clemson’s defensive front holding Notre Dame’s ground game in check. There was no expectation the Irish would dominate there with 264 rushing yards on 46 carries after adjusting for a single one-yard sack. Logan Diggs ran for 114 yards on 17 carries while Audric Estimé took 18 rushes for 104 yards. (14/26)

27) That loss did not knock Clemson out of the College Football Playoff. The Tigers messing around and finding out against South Carolina did that. But regardless, predicting Clemson would return to the Playoff was ill-fated. (14/27)

28) Notre Dame was 30-1 in its last 31 home games entering the season. Predicting that would reach 35-2 in step with suggesting the Irish would lose to the Tigers was wrong in all sorts of ways, most notably in that the stretch is now 34-3 after Notre Dame went just 4-2 at home last season. Again, Marshall and Stanford. (14/28)

29) Boston College receiver Zay Flowers did not have the predicted 40-yard catch on Senior Day at Notre Dame Stadium. He had a long of 39 yards on a snow-covered field playing with a backup quarterback.

The spirit of the prognostication was valid, but alas. (14/29)

30) Former Irish tight end George Takacs did not catch a touchdown in his return with the Eagles. No one did. (14/30)

31) And former Notre Dame quarterback Phil Jurkovec did not have a “perfectly adequate day in his return to South Bend, not dramatic enough in any regard to confirm or deny anyone’s expectations for him that day.”

Jurkovec did not play at all, so let’s call this wager a push. He did, however, make some headlines from the sideline.

There is a strong chance this prediction is rerun in its entirety in 2023 with Jurkovec and Pittsburgh heading to South Bend on Oct. 28. (14.5/31)

Leftovers & Links: Ohio State, Clemson & Pittsburgh hurt most by early NFL draft entrants among Notre Dame’s opponents

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 03 Notre Dame at Ohio State
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The first two notable dates of college football’s offseason passed last week, the deadline for players to enter the transfer portal before the spring semester and the deadline to enter the NFL draft. The former hardly warranted much notice at Notre Dame, only three players entering the portal after the 2022 season. While plenty did transfer from other programs, a mid-May look at that movement may better serve Irish purposes, as plenty of names will eventually leave Notre Dame.

The NFL deadline has no second passing. Players are either headed toward the NFL draft by now or they are not.

The Irish lost five players to early entry to the NFL, though two of those instances were offensive lineman Jarrett Patterson and defensive end Justin Ademilola, both of whom would have been returning for sixth collegiate seasons in 2023. So in a more genuine sense, Notre Dame lost only three players early to the NFL draft: tight end Michael Mayer, defensive end Isaiah Foskey and safety Brandon Joseph.

All five would have started for the Irish next season, obviously. But at most, Ademilola’s and Joseph’s declarations were surprises, and even those were only mild at most.

College football will slowly churn back toward college careers following “normal” timelines and more tenable roster management the further it gets from the universal pandemic eligibility waiver from 2020. That will not take all the way until the 2025 season. Coaches are already leaning toward it.

While Notre Dame would have gladly welcomed back Patterson and/or Ademilola, it also knew two realities.

1) Patterson should be a second- or third-round draft pick who could have gone to the NFL a year ago. His time is now.
2) A year of Ademilola’s production would come at the expense of the development of younger players that may already be on the verge, somewhat deflating the value of his return.

In a parallel way, coaching staffs fall into two categories.

1) Either they are doing well and trust they can recruit better players than any draft debaters now. Leaning into continued successful recruiting lengthens the timeline these coaches expect to continue to succeed.
2) Or they are failing and soon fired. A new coach would rather bring in new players, “his players,” to reboot the program.

In both scenarios, fewer and fewer sixth-year players will be seen around college football long before the 2025 season rules them out entirely.

All of that is to say, when discussing entrants into the NFL draft, it is more and more accurate to focus on the juniors (like Mayer) and the seniors (Foskey, Joseph) rather than the half-decade veterans. Those losses from Notre Dame’s 2023 opponents, in order of most severe to least …

Ohio State: Losing quarterback C.J. Stroud would top this list no matter who else was on it. Stroud alone would have made the Buckeyes the title favorites next season. Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba also jumped to the NFL, though his final collegiate season was effectively nullified when a Joseph tackle in the season opener injured Smith-Njigba’s hamstring to an extent he never genuinely returned in 2022.

Center Luke Wypler and offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. headed to the next level, as well, along with defensive tackle Dawand Jones and defensive back Ronnie Hickman.

But those latter losses are anticipated at elite programs. Ohio State has recruited to replace most of these players. The Buckeyes barely missed Smith-Njigba in 2022, and he may be the best receiver in the draft. Stroud, however, is a loss that will throw the early part of Ohio State’s 2023 into some question.

Clemson: Similarly, the Tigers losing three defensive linemen in Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee and K.J. Henry along with linebacker Trenton Simpson may be too much to overcome in stride. As Clemson has so terribly struggled — throw some sarcasm on that phrasing — to just 10 and 11 wins the last two season, it has leaned on its defensive front.

The Tigers gave up only 102.7 rushing yards per game in 2022, No. 13 in the country, and 20.9 points per game, No. 22 in the country. A year ago, Clemson ranked No. 7 and No. 2 in the respective categories.

Replacing 29.5 tackles for loss from the 2022 season including 16 sacks will be a difficult task. Perhaps “terribly struggled” will no longer warrant sarcasm.

Pittsburgh: Not many programs saw two All-Americans jump to the NFL, but the Panthers did in running back Israel Abanikanda (1,431 yards on 5.99 yards per carry with 20 rushing touchdowns) and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey (14 tackles for loss with 7 sacks in 11 games). Safety Brandon Hill also provided Pittsburgh’s defense some versatility.

USC: The Trojans also lost two All-Americans to the NFL — which, come to think of it, Notre Dame did, as well, in Mayer and Foskey — in receiver Jordan Addison and defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu. To be more clear, Addison was not a 2022 All-American, but one at Pittsburgh back in 2021. Injuries slowed him a touch in 2022, but overall, his talent is All-American in caliber.

Stanford: The Cardinal’s talent drain this offseason will warrant a deep dive. It is one to behold. The first line on it is quarterback Tanner McKee heading to the NFL with some draftniks thinking he should be an early-round pick.

When Stanford upset Notre Dame in October, McKee led the way with 288 yards on an impressive 26-of-38 completion rate. Losing him will drastically change the Cardinal ceiling in 2023, which is saying something considering how low that ceiling already was.

Central Michigan: Running back Lew Nicholls III did not have the statistical profile of someone who should head to the NFL already, with all of 616 rushing yards and six touchdowns in 2022, but look back to 2021 and his choice makes more sense. He ran for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 338 receiving yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Navy, Tennessee State, North Carolina State, Duke, Louisville and Wake Forest did not lose players to any early NFL decisions.

If this list seems abbreviated, that’s because it is throughout college football. Name, image and likeness rights have made it more enticing for players to return to school Reportedly, fewer players entered this draft early than at any time in the last decade.

To think, so many people insisted NIL rights would ruin college football. Here is hard evidence it has upgraded the talent in the sport.

INSIDE THE IRISH
Trio of early-enrolling Notre Dame receivers most likely of dozen arrivals to impact 2023
40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part I: ND’s rushing offense hid many early struggles
40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part II: Upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach

OUTSIDE READING
2023 NFL Draft Big Board: PFF’s top 100 prospects
‘Everything’s on fire’: NIL collectives are the latest patchwork solution for college athlete pay
Numbers show NIL benefits college football
Has legalized betting led to more hurtful social media actions? Some admins think so.
Best college football games of 2022 season
Blazers’ Justise Winslow’s ‘giant, little steps’ out of the darkness

40 Preseason Predictions Revisited, part II: Notre Dame’s upset losses should have been expected from a first-year head coach

Marshall v Notre Dame
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To continue a final look back at Notre Dame’s 2022 season through the lens of preseason predictions and the expectations they framed …

11) The most underappreciated part of the Irish resurgence since 2017 and thus Brian Kelly’s final years coaching in South Bend was that Notre Dame won 42 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest streak in the country. It was so taken for granted, this prediction thought the Irish would run that to 50 games in 2023.

Instead, Marcus Freeman lost his very first game against an unranked opponent. (8 correct predictions out of 11.)

12) A few predictions always delve out of college football, for variety’s sake. Maybe that should be forgotten moving forward, considering the Packers neither beat the Vikings to open the season nor won the NFC North. To make matters even worse for this scribe of a lapsed Packers fan, they also were not bad enough to draft a good quarterback in 2023. (8 out of 12.)

13) North Carolina leaned on dynamic receiver Josh Downs to prodigious amounts in 2021. An early-season injury slowed him this year, thus ruining any chance of him having “the most catches in a game against the Irish this season, though not the most yards.”

He caught five passes for 32 yards.

Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka set the catches mark with nine for 90 yards to open the season, while BYU’s Kody Epps caught four passes for 100 yards, the season high in yardage against Notre Dame. (8/13)

14) Notre Dame played a multiple-look defense this season, a layup of a prediction given the linebacker depth and versatility led by Jack Kiser and (eventually injured) Bo Bauer. That was emphasized at USC when the Irish leaned into a 3-3-5 look without both cornerback Cam Hart and nickel back Tariq Bracy. Kiser’s speed became the defense’s best chance.

It was not enough, but it was a valiant effort, and one to keep in mind in 2023. (9/14)

15) “The math says at least one Irish player will be ejected for targeting in 2022.”

Enter JD Bertrand, twice. (10/15)

16) “Notre Dame will beat BYU in Las Vegas.”

Despite a lackluster second-half, check.

“… This space will miss at least one day of publishing the following week. Who can say why.”

Let’s check the running content calendar. For Tuesday, Oct. 11, it reads, “Vegas won this round.” Sometimes it is best to foresee your own personal failures. (11/16)

17) Marcus Freeman’s recruiting emphasis never waned, underscored by the last two years of recruiting topping anything the Irish have ever done. (12/17)

18) The only area in which Michael Mayer fell short in his Notre Dame career was of this prediction, one saying he would casually break two of his own three Irish single-season records. To do so, he needed to exceed 71 catches, 840 receiving yards and/or seven touchdowns.

The surefire first-round draft pick merely caught 67 passes for 809 yards and nine scores.

Would he have reached all three metrics if he played in the Gator Bowl? Almost assuredly. But then again, he played in only 12 games in 2021, too. The prediction was wrong, regardless. (12/18)

19) Another thought about an individual record, defensive end Isaiah Foskey did not exceed Justin Tuck’s record of 13.5 sacks in a season. He did take down the quarterback 11 times, reaching double digits for a second consecutive season while setting the Notre Dame career mark. (12/19)

20) Similar to prediction No. 11, an underappreciated part of Kelly’s final five years in South Bend were that the Irish won 39 straight games when favored at kickoff, covering all of the 2018-21 seasons.

Both to suggest that would continue and to guess how many times Notre Dame would be favored in 2022, arguing that streak would reach 48 was right in that the Irish were favored in nine of 13 games. They just happened to lose the first of those (and then again against Stanford, the fourth time they would be favored this season).

Such blunders should have been expected from a first-year head coach. Those missteps seem to catch just about every such rookie. But forgetting or overlooking that led to dashed expectations in 2022. (12/20)