When wrong, admit it voluntarily. When right, acknowledge it only as necessary. And when it came to preseason predictions, I got a lot wrong about Notre Dame’s 2018. If there is any redeeming thought, it is that at least I expected a win total of more than 9.5. Otherwise, the Irish running game let down a number of projections and Clark Lea’s defense was buoyed by unforeseen contributors.
Friday at 4 (Aug. 17): 40 Predictions, 1-20 with an offensive focus
Friday at 4 (Aug. 24): 40 Predictions, 21-40 with a defensive focus and season-long expectations
Many of these preseason predictions were settled by Notre Dame’s off week in October and discussed then, so those may not be delved into as much at this point …
Revisiting (offensive) predictions from Notre Dame’s preseason (Oct. 17)
Notre Dame’s defense spurs it past preseason big picture predictions (Oct. 18)
1-3) Notre Dame and Michigan will not break 41 total points unless the score is inflated by a defensive or special teams touchdown.
RESULT: Even with a Wolverines kickoff return for a score, the final tally was exactly 41. That’s three in the correct column, and this strong start is misleading.
4) Senior kicker Justin Yoon will make the biggest kick of his life.
RESULT: Not yet, so mark it as incorrect, but if the Irish are to upset Clemson, one figures it will be a close game.
5) Notre Dame will trot out a trick play featuring sophomore quarterback-turned-running back Avery Davis’ arm.
RESULT: Incorrect, and given Davis’ (lack of) playing time as the season progressed, this verdict will not flip in the Playoff. It should be noted, senior receiver Chris Finke did nearly attempt a pass against USC before wisely tucking the ball for a one-yard loss.
6) Irish running backs will exceed last year’s totals of 24 catches for 134 yards.
RESULT: Nailed it to the tune of 37 receptions for 456 yards, highlighted by junior Tony Jones’ 51-yard score to seal the unbeaten season at USC, part of a 6-catch, 105-yard day for the running backs.
7) Those running backs will lead the way to averaging between 214.5 and 224.5 rushing yards per game.
RESULT: The want is to blame Pittsburgh for this falling short. That day’s 80 rushing yards certainly played a role in the season-long average falling to 190.9. But even removing that game does not yield enough of a bounce, as Notre Dame averaged only 200.5 in the other 11 games. Want to adjust for sacks? Fine, 208.1 in the other 11.
8) Finke will match his career totals of 16 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
RESULT: 47 catches for 547 yards and two touchdowns.
9) Two freshmen receivers will exceed Michael Young’s 2017 totals of four catches for 18 yards and a score.
RESULT: While Kevin Austin does have five catches for 90 yards, no other freshman receiver has cracked the stat sheet. If Irish head coach Brian Kelly’s hints of a freshman speedster breaking through against Clemson prove true, this could switch sides of the ledger, but it is marked incorrect until such is seen, and such is unlikely to be seen.
10) Junior Chase Claypool will not finish second in receptions or receiving yards.
RESULT: That is exactly where Claypool finished.
Just five football weeks ago, this seemed locked in as accurate, which goes to show how strongly Claypool finished the regular season. To pull from then, “Claypool is currently fourth in catches with 23 and third in yards with 261. … This Claypool projection was a subtle way of saying 2018 would be boom-or-bust for Claypool. That has been the case, but to such an aggravating extent, one can already expect another offseason of storylines discussing Claypool’s inevitable and supposed maturation.”
11) Fifth-year tight end Nic Weishar will catch at least three touchdowns, furthering his penchant for receptions in the end zone and nowhere else.
RESULT: Weishar finished with two scores … on three catches. Right in spirit, wrong by letter.
12-13) Greg Dortch and Bryce Love will each score two touchdowns against the Irish.
RESULT: It’s almost like defensive coordinator Clark Lea did not want these predictions to succeed. The Wake Forest receiver and Stanford running back combined to score only one more time than you did against Notre Dame’s defense this season.
14-15) The Irish will play in primetime at Virginia Tech, after the Hokies’ “Enter Sandman” has fulfilled the hype that put it on a universal college football bucket list.
RESULT: If not for the easy predictions, there might not be any correct.
16) Junior quarterback Ian Book will attempt fewer than last season’s 75 passes.
RESULT: Is there a world where 280 is fewer than 75? Asking for a me.
17) Sophomore offensive lineman Josh Lugg will start multiple games, as Notre Dame will not enjoy the health up front of a year ago.
RESULT: Sophomore Aaron Banks stepped in for the injury to fifth-year left tackle Alex Bars, not Lugg. Wrong by the letter but right by the spirit, again.
18) Multiple freshmen offensive linemen will play.
RESULT: Nope. Only Jarrett Patterson did, no matter what concessions the NCAA offered this season regarding eligibility concerns.
19) DeShone Kizer will not have a good year.
RESULT: Again, the obvious spurred this batting average toward Hall of Fame, yet bankrupting, levels. And with a change in coaching staffs in Green Bay, the former Irish quarterback will likely have a new home by summer.
20) The Florida State weekend will include a 30th anniversary celebration of Notre Dame’s 1988 title team.
RESULT: There was not much ‘88 discussion at any point this season, perhaps out of fear of jinxing the current undefeated run.
21) Freshman defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin will manage at least eight tackles with 0.5 behind the line of scrimmage.
RESULT: Those numbers would have matched Kurt Hinish’s output in 2017, but a torn quad ruined any chance Franklin may have had. Classmate Jayson Ademilola stepped in, easily eclipsing Hinish’s debut season, with 17 tackles and 0.5 for loss. Thus, another incorrect by letter, but the thought was in the right place.
22) The Irish will have multiple players with at least six sacks.
23) Junior end Khalid Kareem will lead Notre Dame in sacks.
24) He will have at least eight, marking the most in the program since 2012.
25) And the defense as a whole will match 2012’s 34 sacks.
RESULTS: Senior tackle Jerry Tillery led the Irish with eight sacks and junior end Julian Okwara managed seven, part of a group that managed 31. Despite being largely on the right track here, the verdicts that matter still count just 1-3, barring a three-sack performance in the next game (or two). If Notre Dame is to notch another win, defensive line pressure figures to be a key piece of that upset.
26) The Irish will give up more than 20 points more than three times, but the defense will still allow fewer than 21.5 points per game, both being 2017’s marks.
RESULT: Got one! Wake Forest (27), Virginia Tech (23), Navy (22) and Northwestern (21) all broke 20, but the season average remained just 17.2 points against per game.
27) Again using last season as the initial measuring stick, Notre Dame will allow fewer than 369.2 yards per game. In fact, let’s lower it to 350.
RESULT: Two in a row! The final figure … 331.5, the lowest since 2012’s 305.5.
28) This was a very specific projection expecting opposing running backs to score in the passing game, but here’s the thing …
RESULT: Hardly anyone scoredin the passing game against the Irish, who gave up just seven passing touchdowns this season.
29) Freshman linebackers Shayne Simon and Bo Bauer will not preserve a year of eligibility. Freshman quarterback Phil Jurkovec will.
RESULT: Check.
30) A Notre Dame safety will intercept a pass, unlike in 2017.
RESULT: How does five sound?
31) Simon will make 10-plus tackles.
RESULT: If only that had read Bauer. Simon finished with four, while Bauer reached 10. The idea was it would be a freshman linebacker, so there’s that consolation prize.
32) Fifth-year linebacker Drue Tranquill and senior linebacker Te’von Coney will combine for 220 tackles.
RESULT: Tranquill’s 76 plus Coney’s team-high 107 equal 183. Even a two-game Playoff run would not likely include 37 more.
33) The Yankees really let down their fans this year. You can gather the result by that sentiment.
34) At least Big East basketball in Madison Square Garden still lives up to all expectations. Again, the result is obvious.
35) Nationwide win total unders … Texas Tech under 6.5 (5), Washington State under 5.5 (10), Arizona State under 4.5 (7), North Carolina under 5.5 (2).
RESULT: This is going to sound like a reach, but there are records of this thought process — An added investment in that North Carolina belief actually made this a profitable set.
36) Nationwide win total overs … Virginia Tech over 8 (6), Vanderbilt over 4.5 (6), Northwestern over 6.5 (8), Michigan State over 8.5 (7), TCU over 7.5 (6), Arizona over 7.5 (5), Oregon over 8.5 (8).
RESULT: The two correct — Vanderbilt and Northwestern — were believed as strongly as the previous Tar Heels thought was, but not strongly enough to make 2-4 acceptable.
37) Notre Dame will not reach the top five at any point in 2018.
RESULT: That’s “Playoff-bound” Notre Dame now …
38) The Irish will win more than 9.5 games.
RESULT: Remember when time was spent wondering if Notre Dame could beat three of Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC?
39) Notre Dame will play in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day.
RESULT: Only one loss away from being accurate.
40) At least 15 of these 40 will be wrong, the Prognosticator’s Paradox.
RESULT: Try 23.
Though, four could conceivably flip Dec. 29 (Nos. 4, 9, 11 and 25) and five more were right in spirit, but not precise enough to count as winning wagers (Nos. 5, 17, 21, 24, 31).
How about a surefire 41st? In a season this fun, this devoid of controversy, little is better than being wrong. This drink is to being wrong often.
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