Friday at 4: Notre Dame’s unbeaten season yields many wrong preseason predictions

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When wrong, admit it voluntarily. When right, acknowledge it only as necessary. And when it came to preseason predictions, I got a lot wrong about Notre Dame’s 2018. If there is any redeeming thought, it is that at least I expected a win total of more than 9.5. Otherwise, the Irish running game let down a number of projections and Clark Lea’s defense was buoyed by unforeseen contributors.

Friday at 4 (Aug. 17): 40 Predictions, 1-20 with an offensive focus
Friday at 4 (Aug. 24): 40 Predictions, 21-40 with a defensive focus and season-long expectations

Many of these preseason predictions were settled by Notre Dame’s off week in October and discussed then, so those may not be delved into as much at this point …

Revisiting (offensive) predictions from Notre Dame’s preseason (Oct. 17)
Notre Dame’s defense spurs it past preseason big picture predictions (Oct. 18)

1-3) Notre Dame and Michigan will not break 41 total points unless the score is inflated by a defensive or special teams touchdown.
RESULT: Even with a Wolverines kickoff return for a score, the final tally was exactly 41. That’s three in the correct column, and this strong start is misleading.

4) Senior kicker Justin Yoon will make the biggest kick of his life.
RESULT: Not yet, so mark it as incorrect, but if the Irish are to upset Clemson, one figures it will be a close game.

5) Notre Dame will trot out a trick play featuring sophomore quarterback-turned-running back Avery Davis’ arm.
RESULT: Incorrect, and given Davis’ (lack of) playing time as the season progressed, this verdict will not flip in the Playoff. It should be noted, senior receiver Chris Finke did nearly attempt a pass against USC before wisely tucking the ball for a one-yard loss.

6) Irish running backs will exceed last year’s totals of 24 catches for 134 yards.
RESULT: Nailed it to the tune of 37 receptions for 456 yards, highlighted by junior Tony Jones’ 51-yard score to seal the unbeaten season at USC, part of a 6-catch, 105-yard day for the running backs.

7) Those running backs will lead the way to averaging between 214.5 and 224.5 rushing yards per game.
RESULT: The want is to blame Pittsburgh for this falling short. That day’s 80 rushing yards certainly played a role in the season-long average falling to 190.9. But even removing that game does not yield enough of a bounce, as Notre Dame averaged only 200.5 in the other 11 games. Want to adjust for sacks? Fine, 208.1 in the other 11.

8) Finke will match his career totals of 16 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
RESULT: 47 catches for 547 yards and two touchdowns.

9) Two freshmen receivers will exceed Michael Young’s 2017 totals of four catches for 18 yards and a score.
RESULT: While Kevin Austin does have five catches for 90 yards, no other freshman receiver has cracked the stat sheet. If Irish head coach Brian Kelly’s hints of a freshman speedster breaking through against Clemson prove true, this could switch sides of the ledger, but it is marked incorrect until such is seen, and such is unlikely to be seen.

Chase Claypool finished with 48 catches for 631 yards and four touchdowns in the regular season, all very much career highs. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)

10) Junior Chase Claypool will not finish second in receptions or receiving yards.
RESULT: That is exactly where Claypool finished.

Just five football weeks ago, this seemed locked in as accurate, which goes to show how strongly Claypool finished the regular season. To pull from then, “Claypool is currently fourth in catches with 23 and third in yards with 261. … This Claypool projection was a subtle way of saying 2018 would be boom-or-bust for Claypool. That has been the case, but to such an aggravating extent, one can already expect another offseason of storylines discussing Claypool’s inevitable and supposed maturation.”

11) Fifth-year tight end Nic Weishar will catch at least three touchdowns, furthering his penchant for receptions in the end zone and nowhere else.
RESULT: Weishar finished with two scores … on three catches. Right in spirit, wrong by letter.

12-13) Greg Dortch and Bryce Love will each score two touchdowns against the Irish.
RESULT: It’s almost like defensive coordinator Clark Lea did not want these predictions to succeed. The Wake Forest receiver and Stanford running back combined to score only one more time than you did against Notre Dame’s defense this season.

14-15) The Irish will play in primetime at Virginia Tech, after the Hokies’ “Enter Sandman” has fulfilled the hype that put it on a universal college football bucket list.
RESULT: If not for the easy predictions, there might not be any correct.

16) Junior quarterback Ian Book will attempt fewer than last season’s 75 passes.
RESULT: Is there a world where 280 is fewer than 75? Asking for a me.

17) Sophomore offensive lineman Josh Lugg will start multiple games, as Notre Dame will not enjoy the  health up front of a year ago.
RESULT: Sophomore Aaron Banks stepped in for the injury to fifth-year left tackle Alex Bars, not Lugg. Wrong by the letter but right by the spirit, again.

18) Multiple freshmen offensive linemen will play.
RESULT: Nope. Only Jarrett Patterson did, no matter what concessions the NCAA offered this season regarding eligibility concerns.

19) DeShone Kizer will not have a good year.
RESULT: Again, the obvious spurred this batting average toward Hall of Fame, yet bankrupting, levels. And with a change in coaching staffs in Green Bay, the former Irish quarterback will likely have a new home by summer.

20) The Florida State weekend will include a 30th anniversary celebration of Notre Dame’s 1988 title team.
RESULT: There was not much ‘88 discussion at any point this season, perhaps out of fear of jinxing the current undefeated run.

21) Freshman defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin will manage at least eight tackles with 0.5 behind the line of scrimmage.
RESULT: Those numbers would have matched Kurt Hinish’s output in 2017, but a torn quad ruined any chance Franklin may have had. Classmate Jayson Ademilola stepped in, easily eclipsing Hinish’s debut season, with 17 tackles and 0.5 for loss. Thus, another incorrect by letter, but the thought was in the right place.

Senior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery led Notre Dame with eight sacks, the most by a single Irish player since 2012 when end Stephon Tuitt racked up a dozen. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

22) The Irish will have multiple players with at least six sacks.
23) Junior end Khalid Kareem will lead Notre Dame in sacks.
24) He will have at least eight, marking the most in the program since 2012.
25) And the defense as a whole will match 2012’s 34 sacks.
RESULTS: Senior tackle Jerry Tillery led the Irish with eight sacks and junior end Julian Okwara managed seven, part of a group that managed 31. Despite being largely on the right track here, the verdicts that matter still count just 1-3, barring a three-sack performance in the next game (or two). If Notre Dame is to notch another win, defensive line pressure figures to be a key piece of that upset.

26) The Irish will give up more than 20 points more than three times, but the defense will still allow fewer than 21.5 points per game, both being 2017’s marks.
RESULT: Got one! Wake Forest (27), Virginia Tech (23), Navy (22) and Northwestern (21) all broke 20, but the season average remained just 17.2 points against per game.

27) Again using last season as the initial measuring stick, Notre Dame will allow fewer than 369.2 yards per game. In fact, let’s lower it to 350.
RESULT: Two in a row! The final figure … 331.5, the lowest since 2012’s 305.5.

28) This was a very specific projection expecting opposing running backs to score in the passing game, but here’s the thing …
RESULT: Hardly anyone scoredin the passing game against the Irish, who gave up just seven passing touchdowns this season.

29) Freshman linebackers Shayne Simon and Bo Bauer will not preserve a year of eligibility. Freshman quarterback Phil Jurkovec will.
RESULT: Check.

30) A Notre Dame safety will intercept a pass, unlike in 2017.
RESULT: How does five sound?

31) Simon will make 10-plus tackles.
RESULT: If only that had read Bauer. Simon finished with four, while Bauer reached 10. The idea was it would be a freshman linebacker, so there’s that consolation prize.

32) Fifth-year linebacker Drue Tranquill and senior linebacker Te’von Coney will combine for 220 tackles.
RESULT: Tranquill’s 76 plus Coney’s team-high 107 equal 183. Even a two-game Playoff run would not likely include 37 more.

33) The Yankees really let down their fans this year. You can gather the result by that sentiment.
34) At least Big East basketball in Madison Square Garden still lives up to all expectations. Again, the result is obvious.

35) Nationwide win total unders … Texas Tech under 6.5 (5), Washington State under 5.5 (10), Arizona State under 4.5 (7), North Carolina under 5.5 (2).
RESULT: This is going to sound like a reach, but there are records of this thought process — An added investment in that North Carolina belief actually made this a profitable set.

36) Nationwide win total overs … Virginia Tech over 8 (6), Vanderbilt over 4.5 (6), Northwestern over 6.5 (8), Michigan State over 8.5 (7), TCU over 7.5 (6), Arizona over 7.5 (5), Oregon over 8.5 (8).
RESULT: The two correct — Vanderbilt and Northwestern — were believed as strongly as the previous Tar Heels thought was, but not strongly enough to make 2-4 acceptable.

37) Notre Dame will not reach the top five at any point in 2018.
RESULT: That’s “Playoff-bound” Notre Dame now …

38) The Irish will win more than 9.5 games.
RESULT: Remember when time was spent wondering if Notre Dame could beat three of Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC?

39) Notre Dame will play in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day.
RESULT: Only one loss away from being accurate.

40) At least 15 of these 40 will be wrong, the Prognosticator’s Paradox.
RESULT: Try 23.

Though, four could conceivably flip Dec. 29 (Nos. 4, 9, 11 and 25) and five more were right in spirit, but not precise enough to count as winning wagers (Nos. 5, 17, 21, 24, 31).

How about a surefire 41st? In a season this fun, this devoid of controversy, little is better than being wrong. This drink is to being wrong often.

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Drew Pyne to transfer from Notre Dame; Tyler Buchner reportedly a bowl possibility

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Notre Dame may start its third quarterback of the season in its bowl game after junior Drew Pyne announced he will transfer from the program on Friday. A graduate, Pyne has three seasons of eligibility remaining.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel first reported Pyne’s intention to transfer, with Pyne soon thereafter taking to Twitter to confirm as much.

“One of my proudest honors is to have been a student-athlete at the University of Notre Dame,” Pyne wrote. “… It’s time for me to take on a new challenge, and I will be entering the transfer portal.”

Pyne took over as the Irish starter after sophomore Tyler Buchner suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the second week of the season. Pyne went 8-2 as a starter, completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,021 yards and 22 touchdowns this season.

His final action at Notre Dame may have been Pyne’s best game of his career, throwing for 318 yards and three touchdowns at USC while completing 23 of 26 passes, the second-most accurate game in Irish history.

He appeared in two games in 2021, stepping in for Jack Coan when he struggled against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. Keeping Pyne to minimal appearances in 2021 was intentional, preserving a season of eligibility for him.

That eligibility will now be used elsewhere.

Without Pyne, Notre Dame will have freshman Steve Angeli and possibly Buchner available in the bowl game, a location and opponent to be announced on Sunday. Football Scoop’s John Brice reported Friday afternoon that Buchner will play in the bowl game, though perhaps that optimism should be measured throughout practice this month.

Regardless, the Irish are expected to pursue an incoming transfer quarterback this month. With names like Texas’ Hudson Card and Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong already in the transfer portal, Notre Dame will have a few options to chase.

That is why Pyne’s transfer makes sense, even if he spoke earnestly about the bowl game following that 38-27 loss in Los Angeles.

“I think we have a lot to play for,” he said. “We’re going to be in a bowl game, I want to send all the seniors out the right way. We have a lot to play for. We have another game, I’m going to prepare as hard as I can for that and finish the season off on a positive note.”

Reversing course from those words is understandable given they came minutes after a competitive game, and the last week has shown Pyne how quickly the quarterback transfer market will move.

In the game of musical chairs that is quarterbacks moving across the country, Pyne waiting until after the bowl game to transfer could serve only to leave him with fewer destinations as options. Not that Pyne may have been looking at Iowa, but the fact that one Power Five starting gig appears to have already been filled by Michigan transfer Cade McNamara presumably underscored the rapid nature of this process.

Understandably, Pyne needs to make the most of this opportunity, coming off a strong season as Notre Dame’s starter but knowing he is unlikely to start for the Irish in 2023. Depending on the level of transfer joining the Irish and Buchner’s health, it was distinctly possible Pyne would be Notre Dame’s third quarterback next year.

For someone who grew up as a Notre Dame fan, specifically a Brady Quinn fan, assuredly this decision was not an easy one for Pyne.

He had a lengthy and notable offer sheet coming out of high school, but Pyne at his best this season would not draw interest from the likes of Texas A&M, Alabama and LSU as he did three years ago. It may be more pertinent to point out he is a Connecticut native, so schools in the northeast could be most logical for his landing spot.

The Irish should also have quarterback commit Kenny Minchey in the pecking order this spring, expected to sign with Notre Dame on Dec. 21 when the early signing period begins.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame’s QB room creates a friendly trust that has been crucial to Pyne’s success
Notre Dame 99-to-0: No. 10 Drew Pyne, junior quarterback

Notre Dame adds a fourth receiver commit to recruiting class, helping a roster need

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Notre Dame is addressing its most glaring roster deficiency with a numbers approach. The Irish had only five true scholarship receivers for much of this season, a number they will nearly match in next year’s freshman class alone after adding a fourth receiver commitment on Thursday. Consensus three-star receiver Kaleb Smith (Rick Reedy High School; Frisco, Texas) announced he will join Notre Dame’s class, and he should sign with the Irish on Dec. 21 when the early signing period begins.

Smith was committed to Texas Tech for more than nine months before he backed off that pledge in early November. Marcus Freeman does not welcome official visitors who are committed to other programs, so if Smith wanted to take an official visit to South Bend to watch Notre Dame play Clemson, he needed to open up his recruitment.

The Irish 35-13 win against the then-No. 4 Tigers assuredly helped tip the scales away from his homestate Texas Tech.

Otherwise, Smith has hardly been recruited by anyone. The only other Power Five program to chase him was Baylor when current Notre Dame receivers coach Chansi Stuckey was there.

Listed at only 6-foot and 168 pounds, it is easy to pencil in Smith as a slot receiver, but he is also willing to go up in the air to get the ball. His highlight footage features him repeatedly and astonishingly open.

His size, or lack thereof, will make Smith unique among the quartet of incoming signees. By snagging four receivers in this class, the Irish are proactively fixing an undeniable roster problem. In last year’s Fiesta Bowl, Notre Dame had only four receivers available. Through most of this season, in part due to injuries to Avery Davis and Joe Wilkins, the Irish had a total of six receivers available, including former walk-on Matt Salerno.

While Braden Lenzy will not return for the Irish in 2023, current sophomores Jayden Thomas, Deion Colzie and Lorenzo Styles should all come back, along with current freshman Tobias Merriweather. With these four commitments, a position group of eight may allow Notre Dame to have a genuine two-deep.

If signing four receivers in a class and seven in two years seems like an unsustainable influx, keep in mind two things. First of all, the Irish desperately need to find receiver depth. Lenzy was famously and admittedly exhausted at the end of that Fiesta Bowl faceplant 11 months ago. One more injury this season would have further crippled Notre Dame’s passing game in 2022. Secondly, the one-time transfer allowance will make departures from the program both more common and more alluring to the players. Natural attrition will occur.

RELATED READING: A third four-star receiver commitment, Jaden Greathouse, elevates Notre Dame’s class of 2023 from good to Great
Four-star receiver Rico Flores Jr.’s commitment gives Notre Dame some receiver hope for 2023
Four-star Texas receiver Braylon James gives Notre Dame needed offensive piece in class of 2023

CB Cam Hart out for Notre Dame’s bowl game, but will return in 2023

Notre Dame v North Carolina
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Perhaps earlier than expected, Notre Dame has already received good news this offseason. Senior cornerback Cam Hart will return for a fifth year in South Bend, though he will not put on pads for the Irish in any bowl game, he announced Tuesday evening.

“Due to a shoulder injury that I sustained during the Boston College Game [sic], I could not participate in our final regular season game and will not be able to participate in this year’s bowl game,” Hart wrote on Twitter. “Consequently, I believe my time here isn’t necessarily complete. Choosing to attend the University of Nore Dame has been the best decision I’ve ever made in my entire life.

“In light of that, I’ve decided to return for a fifth season and look forward to taking the field with my brothers in 2023!”

Hart’s 2023 return should give the Irish four returning cornerbacks with starting experience, only fifth-year nickel back Tariq Bracy a notable departure from this year’s cornerbacks group.

Note: The use of “should” is not meant to imply anything about other possibilities. The conditional verb is chosen as recognition of the constantly changing rosters in college football in 2022.

Hart took part in Notre Dame’s Senior Day festivities before facing Boston College, which suggested he was at least considering jumping to the NFL. This quick announcement indicates the injury ruled out that thought process, though the injury had plagued him at points earlier in the season.

A shoulder injury first flared up for Hart this year in the spring of 2022, costing him spring practices. A concern had previously cost him some of 2019, as he adapted from playing receiver in high school. He nonetheless played in 11 games in 2022, starting 10 and making 25 tackles with three for loss and breaking up four passes.

His passes defensed fell from nine in 2021, along with two interceptions, in part because opposing quarterbacks were less enticed to test the increasingly-experienced cornerback. His 6-foot-2 ½ length made Hart something just short of a shutdown cornerback.

With current freshman Benjamin Morrison surging to close this season and classmate Jaden Mickey stepping in for Hart at USC, Notre Dame should enjoy a plethora of tested cornerbacks in 2023. (Current junior Clarence Lewis is the aforementioned fourth.)

In many respects, this will allow the Irish defense to begin the 2023 season with the same calm it had in 2022, when Hart, Lewis and Bracy provided experienced pass defense.

“You have three older veteran corners that can really play at any moment, which makes you feel good,” head coach Marcus Freeman said in August. “Those three guys can play those two corner spots and I don’t feel there will be a drop off with any of them.”

There are a few key decisions left on Notre Dame’s defense — most notably, defensive end Justin Ademilola and safety Brandon Joseph could return in 2023 — but most of them may come after any Irish bowl game. Hart’s choice was presumably expedited by his apparent exclusion from the bowl game due to this injury.

HART CAREER STATISTICS
2020: 8 games; 3 tackles, 2 passes defended.
2021: 13 games, 10 starts; 42 tackles with four for loss, 9 passes defended and two interceptions.
2022: 11 games, 10 starts; 25 tackles with three for loss, 4 passes defended.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame 99-to-0: No. 5 Cam Hart, senior cornerback, second-year starter

Things We Learned: Notre Dame’s offensive shortcomings again highlighted by an explosive counterpart

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 26 Notre Dame at USC
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There are two ways to look at USC’s 38-27 win against Notre Dame on Saturday, and they both tie back to the Trojans’ being the best Irish measuring stick.

USC beat Notre Dame in a way that underscores how short-handed the Irish always were this season. When Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams began to cement his status as the Heisman frontrunner with a performance that will be long remembered, Notre Dame had no way to consistently counter him.

“We didn’t stop them,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said simply enough.

Without the offensive skill position players needed to match Williams’ explosive play for explosive play, Notre Dame needed its defense to play perfectly, clearly an unfair ask against a Lincoln Riley offense.

“USC is a great team,” Irish quarterback Drew Pyne said. “That was a really good team we played out there. They’re going to go on and do great things for the rest of their season. Caleb Williams is a great player.”

If the Irish had not had junior tight end Michael Mayer — eight catches on nine targets for 98 yards and two touchdowns — they may not have been able to stay in even vague distance of the Trojans. Three heaves to Deion Colzie gained 75 yards and three first downs, but each felt like Pyne was hoping more than anything else.

Notre Dame still made it a game, but the discrepancy in offensive playmakers stood out in Los Angeles on Saturday night.

And while both programs will undergo some turnover — most notably Mayer for the Irish; receiver Jordan Addison and running back Austin Jones will both likely be at the next level next year, among Trojans’ contributors this weekend — Notre Dame will need to close that gap to compete with USC next season.

The variance of a schedule may keep the Irish from too staunchly improving on their 8-4 record this year, but a certainty is that Williams will be ready to dazzle again in South Bend on Oct. 14, 2023.

Notre Dame right now does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with such a dynamic attack. As soon as the Irish gifted the Trojans chances to take a lead, their running game was mitigated and Notre Dame’s best hopes were reduced to Mayer and those heaves to Colzie.

Williams can dance his way through any defense, perhaps shy of Georgia’s. Even if the Irish secondary had been fully healthy, Williams’ rhythmic scrambles still would have broken down the defense. If Utah helms him in this weekend, it may be as much due to a USC letdown as it is to any Utes’ scheme. His stardom is an extreme, but this is college football in 2022, again aside from Georgia.

Many will instinctively point to Pyne’s shortcomings, ignoring how well he played in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. He made two mistakes, yes, but one of them (the cross-body interception) came as Notre Dame was more and more desperate and the other (the fumbled exchange) was in part a result of the Irish abandoning their ground game as they fell further behind.

Pyne finished 23-of-26 for 318 yards and three touchdowns. Every version of breaking down those stats yields praise for Pyne. A reality of a loss and a reality when the opposing quarterback broke through as a national star, no time was spent in postgame press conferences discussing Pyne’s efficient night.

But it was, regardless.

His final incompletion, the interception from Notre Dame’s own red zone, also overshadowed the second-most accurate day in Irish passing history, but it was an understandable mistake. Notre Dame was trailing by two scores with only five minutes remaining. Wasting a play on a throwaway was low on Pyne’s priority list.

If Pyne had established more of a season-long rapport with Colzie, maybe he sees him down the left sideline as highlighted by Kirk Herbstreit on the broadcast. If Braden Lenzy is a bit less worn down by a season-long receiver shortage, maybe he is able to charge into Pyne’s ill-advised pass rather than try to settle in for a low catch. If … maybe, if … maybe.

Only twice this season has USC managed as few as 31 genuine points — discounting the short-field touchdown in the final three minutes courtesy of Pyne’s pick, though not all that necessary given the Trojans fell short of 40 points just twice in their first 11 games. Oregon State and Washington State had the luxuries of facing Williams before he had reached the peak of his powers with this new, transfer-obtained complement of receivers.

The Irish defense did its part against USC. Notre Dame’s offense just could not match the star of the season.

Williams will star again next year. The Irish defense will most likely still be stout. Those truths this season will carry over. Notre Dame then has to wonder only if its offense can develop and/or find more playmakers, a known need this entire season and now the pressing concern entering the offseason, a need emphasized by the Trojans’ offense, the foe that should again define 2023.