Notre Dame will return more on offense than usual

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For the second-consecutive year, Notre Dame loses its leading rusher, receiver and tight end. Such is the nature of college football. But this time around, the departures do not dent the Irish offense nearly as much.

That results partially from not having Dexter Williams for the first four games of the 2018 season, but as much as that, it traces to the emergence of rising junior running back Jafar Armstrong (when healthy). There was no such encouraging sign for Notre Dame coming out of 2017.

If rising junior running back Jafar Armstrong can remain healthy in 2019, there should be little doubt about Notre Dame’s rushing success. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

2017 total rushing stats by running backs: 362 rushes for 2,422 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Stats returning for 2018: 83 rushes for 592 yards and seven touchdowns.
Those latter numbers by percentages: 22.93 percent of rushes for 24.4 percent of yards and one-third of touchdowns.

2018 total rushing stats by running backs: 335 rushes for 1,840 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Stats currently returning for 2019: 177 rushes for 845 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Those latter numbers by percentages: 53.31 percent of rushes for 45.92 percent of yards and 45.45 percent of touchdowns.

Note: None of those figures include rushing yards by a quarterback, just as there will not be a segment here discussing passing stats. It is an all-or-nothing endeavor — either the primary quarterback returns or does not — and discussing it in these terms seems an exercise in word-count boosting. Similarly, the influx provided by Brandon Wimbush in 2017 was not seen in 2018 once he was benched, so giving credit for those rushing yards in the percentages thought would be one defying the logic to the exercise.

The quarterback change from Wimbush to rising senior Ian Book does noticeably impact the receivers’ stats. Book’s ability to accurately distribute the ball across the available targets led to less of a reliance on any one particular player, Equanimeous St. Brown in 2017.

2017 total receiving stats by receivers: 113 catches for 1,716 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Stats returning for 2018: 51 catches for 775 yards and five touchdowns.
Those latter numbers by percentages: 45.13 percent of catches for 45.16 percent of yards and one-third of touchdowns.

2018 total receiving stats by receivers: 170 catches for 2,310 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Stats currently returning for 2019: 111 catches for 1,438 yards and seven touchdowns.
Those latter numbers by percentages: 65.29 percent of catches for 62.25 percent of yards and 46.67 percent of touchdowns.

Make no mistake, the Irish relied on Miles Boykin in 2018, but with three receivers pulling in 47 catches or more and two of them returning, Notre Dame will have other proven options. Further context: No Irish receiver had more than 33 catches in 2017, and only two returned with double-digit catches, their 41 combined falling short of both returning numbers this time around.

If two seasons of this seems like a small sample, that is a valid thought, but to offer two counters:

1) It is the most-recent example of a good season following a good season, with the next most-recent possibility coming back in 2005 and 2006, and even those two years combined for three fewer wins than the last two did, 22 the highest two-season total seen at Notre Dame since 1988-89.
2) It is the same amount of time offensive coordinator Chip Long has directed the Irish attack. His distribution of the ball, both in play-calling and in roster reliance, is different than the years prior, as best seen in utilizing running backs and tight ends in the passing game.

2017 receiving stats by tight ends and running backs: 69 catches for 610 yards and four touchdowns.
Stats returning for 2018: 38 catches for 257 yards and three touchdowns.
Those latter numbers by percentages: 55.07 percent of catches for 42.13 percent of yards and three-quarters of touchdowns.

2018 receiving stats by tight ends and running backs: 96 catches for 1,029 yards and eight touchdowns.
Stats currently returning for 2019: 41 catches for 526 yards and two touchdowns.
Those latter numbers by percentages: 42.17 percent of catches for 51.12 percent of yards and one-quarter of touchdowns.

Returning 14 catches for 151 yards from 2018, rising junior tight end Cole Kmet will be counted upon as an auxiliary playmaker in 2019. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Notre Dame should be able to handle even the loss of Alizé Mack better than it did that of Durham Smythe, even if the next tight end option (rising junior Cole Kmet) is not as established as Mack was. The likes of Armstrong and rising senior running back Tony Jones will help with that concern, both having shown big-play ability in the receiving game. In Long’s system, running backs and tight ends can be nearly interchangeable in the aerial regards.

Simply enough, the Irish are better equipped to further develop on offense than they were a year ago, no matter the losses of Williams, Boykin and Mack.

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Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Offensive line, returning bookend tackles and a three-year starter at center

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When Brent Pry arrived at Virginia Tech last offseason, the new Hokies head coach understood he had a deep hole to climb out of if he wanted to return Blacksburg to ACC contention. Pry set out to hire coaches who would stick around and help with that climb, including offensive line coach Joe Rudolph.

One season later, Rudolph is now preparing for Notre Dame’s spring practices beginning March 22. That departure is not a reflection of Rudolph dismissing his original intentions, but rather of how alluring the Irish offensive line coaching job was after Harry Hiestand retired following Tommy Rees’s departure for Alabama.

Notre Dame is an appealing coaching gig in a vacuum, the Irish offensive line position duties just as much so. But the 2023 possibilities attracted a few of the better line coaches in the country, given two future first-round draft picks should start at the tackle spots and Zeke Correll will start at center for a third season. Add in a plethora of highly-sought former recruits on the depth chart, and Notre Dame’s offensive line should make nearly any coach look good.

On top of all that, Irish head coach Marcus Freeman sold Rudolph with his favorite catchphrase.

“That’s not always in fashion to say, ‘This is an O-line driven place and the O-line sets the tone,’” Rudolph said earlier this month of his interview conversations with Freeman. “He took a lot of pride in saying it and said it in a few of the meetings we had. That hits deep to me.

“It’s how I grew up when I played. I felt that responsibility as a player. It really hit home for me.”

The opportunity to lean into the offensive line at Notre Dame was simply too much for Rudolph to turn down to stay at Virginia Tech.

WHERE NOTRE DAME WAS
The Irish lost two captains, two multi-year starters, two massive human beings in guards Jarrett Patterson and Josh Lugg. Their combined 79 starts is not simply a stat in the rearview mirror.

Here is a 2023 prediction: When Notre Dame struggles to run through Central Michigan on Sept. 16, the fanbase’s consternation will be met with this space repeating Lugg’s accurate philosophizing a year ago about how an offensive line needs some time to coalesce. In each of the last three seasons, that was an Irish need, and in each of the last three seasons, that became an Irish reality.

In 2022, it was because Notre Dame was working in a pair of green tackles. In 2023, it will be because the Irish are finding their footing with a pair of green guards.

2022 STATS
Joe Alt (two years of eligibility remaining entering the 2023 season): 13 starts at left tackle
Jarrett Patterson: 12 starts at left guard
Andrew Kristofic (two years of eligibility remaining): 11 games, started the season opener at left guard in place of Patterson
Zeke Correll (two years): 13 starts at center
Josh Lugg: 13 starts at right guard
Blake Fisher (three years): 13 starts at right tackle

Tosh Baker (two years): 13 games
Rocco Spindler (three years): 12 games
Michael Carmody (two years): 1 game

WHERE NOTRE DAME IS
Those three starters are established. It would take injury to change them.

Alt (pictured at top) will be a preseason All-American at left tackle and likely first-round draft pick 13 months from now.
Correll will start for a third season at center and about halfway through the year the Irish will start pondering if they should talk him into a sixth collegiate year in 2024.
Fisher will start at right tackle and could join Alt in the NFL draft with a strong year. While that may panic Notre Dame fans, a season producing a pair of first-round tackles should be a season with some substantial successes in the fall, as well.

But those two guard spots will lead to much springtime and preseason wonder. Rudolph does not know who will emerge, obviously, but he indicated he will take the same approach that Hiestand did and find his best five players first, their positions second.

“You’d be selling the group short if you weren’t trying to find the best five,” Rudolph said. “You have to do that with some vision of how the whole group fits together.

“There might be someone who is competing their tail off, and they might back up [Alt] or back up [Correll], but if they play in a way this spring where you see they’re one of those five (best), you can easily move them to a position and have them ready in fall camp and all summer to take that over.”

The initial candidates should be rising junior Rocco Spindler, fifth-year Andrew Kristofic and perhaps rising sophomore Billy Schrauth. Kristofic has starting experience, most notably stepping in at left guard for the second half of the 2021 season, with much success. The other two are unknowns since high-profile recruitments.

For the moment, presume the starting guards come from that trio. The player to nominally come up short should still anticipate playing in 2023. Notre Dame’s offensive line health in 2022 was absurd. Aside from Patterson suffering a foot injury in August, no offensive lineman endured notable injury.

That may have been karmic justice for the historical string of injuries at left tackle in 2021, needing four underclassmen to take their knocks just to get through the first half of the season, but it was still the first time since 2017 the Irish enjoyed such fortune up front, needing at least two reserves in each of the four intervening seasons.

It would be irrational to expect such luck again, giving tangible motivation to the three other rising sophomores as well as a pair of rising juniors, none of whom have seen the field yet.

RELATED READING: Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Defensive line, suddenly inexperienced and unproven
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Tight ends, moving on from an all-time great
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Running backs, led by a familiar ‘three-headed monster’
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Linebackers, led by a trio of veterans and little change
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Defensive backs, with a star sophomore and an Oklahoma State transfer

FUTURE DEPTH
Hiestand pulled in a total of 10 offensive linemen in the last two classes, though Joey Tanona was already forced into retirement due to a concussion suffered in a car accident last winter. Nonetheless, those nine underclassmen present Rudolph plenty of options moving forward, all notable recruits, part of the luxury of taking this job.

Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Defensive backs, with a star sophomore and an Oklahoma State transfer

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One common misperception about college football in the modern era is that base defenses still focus on a 3-4 or a 4-3 defensive front. More and more often, defenses spend more time with at least five defensive backs on the field than with seven defensive linemen and linebackers. The nickel defense is the most common look.

That has changed mostly in reaction to college football so heavily leaning on the pass — one of the reasons the NCAA may opt to keep the clock running following incompletions beginning next season, a rule change pending approval this offseason — but also as a luxury of more multi-faceted defenders.

Tariq Bracy may not have looked like a physical player on paper, listed at 185 pounds and 5-foot-10 ⅛ last season, but the veteran carried much of that weight in his legs, making him a powerful tackler as well as quick enough to keep up with most slot receivers.

When Notre Dame lost Bracy to injury at USC to end the season, freshman Jaden Mickey hardly stood a chance in the pivotal position.

Enter Oklahoma State transfer Thomas Harper.

Harper is usually listed as a safety, but even he admits what is most likely his destination in the Irish defense.

“Really just kind of get in where I fit in and playing some free safety, some nickel,” he said last month on his coming role. “Getting in where I fit in, wherever I’m needed, that’s where I’ll be.”

RELATED READING: Oklahoma State safety Thomas Harper transfer gives Notre Dame needed depth on back line

For a veteran with one season of eligibility remaining, any transfer comes with the thought of showing off for the NFL. At 5-foot-11, Harper is self-aware enough to know an NFL career at safety is unlikely. Proving himself as a three-down defender near the tackle box, though, could give Harper a chance at the next level.

“Going somewhere that I felt like would benefit me the most as far as help me maximize my potential and get me to that next level,” he said. Some of that ties beyond playing nickel back at Notre Dame and to the stage he’ll be playing on. “Being able to be on a team where I can show my ability vs. other teams other than just the Big 12, that’s a really big reason why I wanted to come here.”

WHERE NOTRE DAME WAS
Brandon Joseph did two things as expected in his one year with the Irish. He made a big play, returning an interception for a touchdown on the first play of the game at Syracuse, though only one such big play. And he jumped to the NFL after only one year.

Notre Dame was better off with Joseph than it would have been without him, but his impact was far from as exclamatory as expected based on some of his days at Northwestern and his work in preseason practices.

Thus, Bracy’s matriculation may have been the bigger concern for the Irish, that is, until Harper transferred in.

Notre Dame will take some time figuring out its safety rotation, something that could seemingly be said each of the last three seasons, but it is not inherently starting from a position worse than it ended last year.

2022 STATS
DJ Brown: 13 games; 48 tackles with 0.5 for loss, plus two pass breakups.
TaRiq Bracy: 11 games; 39 tackles with six for loss including one sack, plus one interception and one pass breakup.
Xavier Watts: 13 games; 39 tackles with two for loss including one sack, plus three pass breakups.
Houston Griffith: 13 games; 33 tackles with one for loss.
Benjamin Morrison: 13 games; 33 tackles with one for loss plus six interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) and four pass breakups.
Brandon Joseph: 10 games; 30 tackles with one interception returned for a touchdown and one pass breakup, as well as one forced fumble.
Clarence Lewis: 13 games; 29 tackles with one for loss, plus one interception and four pass breakups, as well as one fumble recovered and one fumble forced.
Cam Hart: 11 games; 24 tackles with three for loss, plus four pass breakups.
Ramon Henderson: 11 games; 23 tackles with two for lossi including 0.5 sacks, plus one fumble recovered.
Jaden Mickey: 11 games; 9 tackles.
Justin Walters: 4 games; two tackles.

WHERE NOTRE DAME IS
There may be a hole at safety, one likely filled by rising senior Xavier Watts and a starter to be named later, and Harper’s arrival at nickel back may generate some buzz as shiny new toys always tend to. But make no mistake, there is one name that defines the Irish secondary in 2023 and one name only: Benjamin Morrison.

The sophomore cornerback should land on some preseason All-American lists, and hype around him may reach heights too high by the time Notre Dame heads to Dublin (166 days). If intercepting six passes as a freshman was not impressive enough on their own, snagging two and returning one 96 yards for a decisive touchdown in the biggest Irish upset of Marcus Freeman’s debut campaign was certainly a moment that will linger in Notre Dame lore.

“He’s an ultimate competitor that doesn’t get shaken,” Freeman said after that 35-14 win against Clemson. “It’s really uncommon for a freshman to be like that.”

Those reservations for six in the end zone may have been the highlight, but Morrison’s first interception against Clemson may have been more impactful. The Tigers were backed up near their own end zone, already trailing 14-0, when Morrison intercepted a crossing route, a throw rushed by defensive end Justin Ademilola.

Morrison less jumped that route and more remembered his coaching and the play call. He was intended to undercut the receiver and place his trust in the safeties behind him to limit a big play. Consider that a moment where DJ Brown’s experience aided the defense in a way that never showed up on the stat sheet. He was the sole deep safety, mirroring the crossing route from 10 yards behind, giving Morrison the coverage to gamble.

Morrison gambling was not the mark of a player starring beyond his years. Him doing so within the play design, however, was the mark of a player thoroughly understanding the defensive scheme.

Opposite him in 2023 will be another such player in fifth-year Cam Hart, though a shoulder injury should limit his contact this spring, creating more opportunities for Jaden Mickey and rising senior Clarence Lewis to reassert themselves.

RELATED READING: Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Defensive line, suddenly inexperienced and unproven
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Tight ends, moving on from an all-time great
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Running backs, led by a familiar ‘three-headed monster’
Where Notre Dame Was & Is: Linebackers, led by a trio of veterans and little change

FUTURE DEPTH
Incoming freshman Brandyn Hillman’s sudden Sunday departure from the program robs Notre Dame of something of a shotgun approach at safety this past recruiting cycle. The Irish pulled in three safeties in Hillman, Ben Minich and Adon Shuler, presumably hoping at least one would pan out. Now that is a 50/50 proposition, with Shuler sidelined by a shoulder injury presently.

In terms of the next Morrison, a thought that no prospect should be burdened with, many spring practice praises will fall upon Christian Gray, a lengthy and athletic early enrollee, while Micah Bell’s speed may make him a special teams contributor when he arrives in Augst.

Dynamic incoming freshman safety Brandyn Hillman exits Notre Dame before enrolling

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The last commitment of Notre Dame’s class of 2023 is the first of the 24 players to depart the Irish program. In a very literal sense, rivals.com three-star safety Brandyn Hillman hardly joined the program, receiving a release from his National Letter of Intent before even enrolling at Notre Dame.

Hillman announced his departure on Instagram on Sunday evening.

“Due to personal reasons, I have asked for and been granted my release from my NLI with the University of Notre Dame,” he wrote. “I would like to thank Coach [Marcus] Freeman and the Notre Dame staff for their interest.

“I ask you to respect my privacy and my family’s privacy as I explore my options on where to attend school this fall.”

Hillman went from no FBS offers in September of his senior season to a Notre Dame commitment the first week of December. His profile rocketed upward in large part to his spring and early summer showings at recruiting camps. Hillman’s physical abilities were quite clear, further so as he played on both sides of the ball in high school.

Irish defensive coordinator Al Golden expected Hillman to join his depth chart at safety, though a future at Rover was also possible.

“Obviously, he could play safety,” Golden said when Hillman signed his National Letter of Intent in December. “He’s big enough to be a Rover, if you will. What’s not to like about him?

“He’s a team captain. Anytime you can get a quarterback, you’re basically taking a player that his high school coach has already deemed good enough to give him the keys to the car. If that high school coach and their staff careers and success depend a lot on that quarterback, so when you make that guy your leader and make the face of your program, that says a lot about him.

“When you look at the competitive nature of the kid and his makeup and just the type of family background he has, I’m really excited about him.”

Instead, Hillman will head elsewhere. His Instagram story — a social-media feature that disappears in 24 hours — suggested he had already received renewed offers from Michigan, LSU and Wisconsin on Sunday, as well as a handful of other programs.

The Virginia native had also heard from both Virginia and Virginia Tech.

In situations like this, the first instinct is to assume some family worries forced a player to reconsider his location. That is only an assumption, and one less and less accurate as college football rosters churn in the modern era.

Without Hillman, Notre Dame has six safeties on its roster, led by sixth-year DJ Brown and rising senior Xavier Watts (Nos. 2 and 26, above, respectively).

If the quick count of the operating depth chart is accurate, the Irish currently have 92 players expected to be on scholarship this fall. The NCAA allows a maximum of 85, so a decent amount of turnover should be anticipated exiting spring practices, which begin on March 22.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame lands dazzling athlete recruit, Brandyn Hillman, with signing day just two weeks away
Notre Dame gets the letter: Brandyn Hillman, athlete who may end up on defense

Reports: Marty Biagi leaves Mississippi to become Notre Dame’s special teams coordinator

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Less than a week after Notre Dame lost its special teams coordinator to the Indianapolis Colts, the Irish have already found their replacement for Brian Mason, reportedly set to hire Marty Biagi from Mississippi where he held the same role.

Irish Illustrated first reported the intended hire of Biagi on Thursday afternoon. The Athletic‘s Matt Fortuna reported the distinct likelihood over the weekend with the process still in its early steps.

As soon as Mason took the Colts job, first reported Saturday morning after widespread Friday reports of his interview, Biagi’s was the name bandied about publicly. He spent the 2016 season at Notre Dame as a special teams analyst, and while there may be an understandable Irish aversion to any connection to that 4-8 faceplant, Notre Dame ranked in the top half of the country in most special teams categories that season.

Averaging 9.1 yards per punt return ranked No. 44, and 23.08 yards per kickoff return came in at No. 27. Four of those punt returns were longer than 20 yards, tied for No. 16 in the country, and five of the kickoff returns were longer than 30 yards, tied for No. 50 in the country. Lastly, the Irish blocked two kicks, far from this past year’s seven, but still No. 44 in the country in 2016.

Biagi then went to coach the special teams at North Texas for three years before spending two seasons in the role at Purdue and the 2022 season at Mississippi. Plenty of stats can be cited as to Biagi’s success in those six seasons — as pointed out by Irish Sports Daily’s Jamie Uyeyama, Biagi has not had a kicker with a field goal percentage worse than 77.8 while they have averaged 84.9 percent in total across six seasons — the most notable moment in his coordinating career illustrates his innovative approach all on its own.

In the 2018 season, North Texas executed the simplest of trick punt returns to score an early touchdown in a 44-17 upset at Arkansas. Biagi exploited general assumptions and a slight Razorbacks’ weakness to spring his punt returner for a touchdown after he very much did not signal for a fair catch.

RELATED READING: How North Texas and its firefighting walk-on stunned Arkansas with the trick play of the year

In his three seasons at North Texas, the Mean Green scored six special teams touchdowns and blocked nine punts and four kicks.

That broad explosiveness and Biagi’s background as a punter and placekicker at Marshall from 2004 to 2007 makes Biagi a more all-encompassing special teams coordinator than most.

With Biagi’s reported hire the assistant-coaching carousel in South Bend should be concluded for this offseason. Of the three coaches added to the staff, only one had a previous connection to Freeman.

Late last week featured reports that the Irish may yet lose safeties coach Chris O’Leary and/or receivers coach Chansi Stuckey to the NFL, but both reaffirmed their commitment to Notre Dame in 2023 over the weekend per reports.

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Notre Dame announces hire of QB coach Gino Guidugli, former Cincinnati offensive coordinator
Reports: Notre Dame special teams coordinator Brian Mason jumping to the Indianapolis Colts