For perhaps the first time, Notre Dame’s season-long hopes are lower than its opponents in a Shamrock Series matchup. No. 16 BYU (4-1) can still reach just about every goal in front of it at the start of the season, though perhaps getting into the Playoff may be a bit much. At the very least, the Cougars can finish their final season as an independent in a New Year’s Six bowl.
But they’d most likely have to upset the Irish (2-2). To get an idea of BYU’s mindset heading into Las Vegas (7:30 ET; NBC), let’s chat with Jared Lloyd of The Daily Herald in central Utah.
DF: BYU remains intriguing from a national perspective, despite perhaps playing with its food a bit against Wyoming and Utah State. Neither game was genuinely in doubt in the second half, so a possible lack of focus certainly did not cost the Cougars. Have you caught a sense of such? Or were those games simply that much more competitive than expected?
JL: Both Utah State and Wyoming came in well-prepared and with really nothing to lose, pushing BYU harder than Cougar fans expected. BYU wasn’t exactly quick to make adjustments, but when it did it was able to pull away in the second half of both games. The reality is that this Cougar team hasn’t played at the level I expected to see for the last three weeks, blundering into a number of unforced and undisciplined errors. The BYU coaching staff is working to eliminate those but I think it is too much to expect them to be all gone for this week’s matchup.
My hope for this game in the preseason was that Notre Dame and BYU would enter with no more than two combined losses. The Irish fell short; the Cougars delivered on that front. But let’s focus on that loss, a 41-20 fall at Oregon. The Ducks got out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and a 38-7 cushion by the end of the third quarter. It was a shellacking. Oregon has a strong rushing attack, averaging 6.3 yards per carry outside of that game, but still gaining 212 yards on 44 carries may be a template for Notre Dame to follow. And this was not specific to the Ducks; Utah State gained 204 yards on 49 carries, a 4.16 yards per rush average, distinctly better than its average of 3.56 in its other four games.
Walk me through this dynamic, as I was very much expecting BYU to have a strong defensive front this season, a team excelling in the trenches during its recent years of success. Has that fallen short? Are offenses selling out for the run?
Oregon, Wyoming and Utah State all made adjustments to attack the Cougar run defense instead of relying on things they had done in previous games, with various levels of success. I have noticed that BYU seems to struggle to get off blocks early in games, then starts over-pursuing and missing assignments. That has opened up gaps and the last three opponents have taken advantage of those. I fully expect Notre Dame to follow the same formula, so it will be on the Cougar defensive players and coaches to prove they have come up with solutions. BYU’s secondary has generally played fairly well, so it appears that the main effort needs to be on getting the job done up front.
The Cougars’ offensive line is certainly delivering, ballasting a balanced offense to the tune of 34.4 points per game. The Irish defensive line was gaining momentum in the five quarters before the idle week. Where is BYU weakest up front, if anywhere?
BYU has enjoyed significant success in past years with an outside zone run scheme, but that hasn’t been the case for much of 2022. Opposing defensive linemen and linebackers have been able to successfully read the plays and slant through, beating the Cougar linemen to the point of attack and hitting BYU running backs behind the line of scrimmage. While the Cougar linemen are big and agile for their size, they simply aren’t quicker than many of the defenders when they are trying to push to the outside. The scheme does set up a lot of other plays that BYU has used, so I don’t expect to see the Cougars abandon it completely. I believe the Notre Dame defenders will be as prepared as other teams have been to stop the basic run and that will be an advantage for the Irish.
Let’s zoom far out from the details of the lines and instead project forward on the Cougars season. They are not eligible for the designated Group of Five slot in the New Year’s Six bowls, but BYU could find itself in the mix for the top 12 and thus still make such an appearance. These next two weeks, vs. Notre Dame and hosting Arkansas, will obviously determine such. Is there any acknowledgment of these bigger-picture possibilities around Provo?
There is no doubt that BYU fans across the country and both local and national reporters acknowledge that a big-time bowl could still be on the table, but I think it is minimized inside the Cougar program. Sure, BYU players and coaches are aware that could be a big prize, but they also know how quickly such dreams will be shattered if they lose. Given the fact that the Cougars have played far below the level they believe they are capable of playing at, I’m certain BYU is focused right now on elevating its own performance far more than thinking about bowl opportunities.
For that matter, how much excitement is there at BYU for finally working its way into the Big 12? This had been a long-wanted goal, at least it seemed so from afar.
It’s an interesting mix of excitement and vindication for many in the Cougar community. On the one hand, many BYU supporters feel that politics — not football tradition or ability — resulted in the Cougars being overlooked in the round of expansion in 2010 that saw Utah and TCU move to Power 5 conferences and BYU go independent. While there are similarities to Notre Dame in the fact that the Cougars are a religious-based institution with a national following, BYU certainly doesn’t have the same cachet as the Irish. Thus, the Cougars certainly needed both the opportunities and resources that joining the Big 12 conference will make possible to continue to be considered an elite college football program (as well as elevate other BYU sports). There is certainly plenty of energy surrounding the scheduled move next year.
I’ve hit some of the game-specific items, some of the 30,000-foot pieces. What have I missed? Including, but not limited to, a current update on the health of a couple Cougars receivers?
BYU has been banged up but the latest update from the coaching staff is that no one is completely ruled out for Saturday’s game. The Cougars did get to see one of its top returning receivers on the field in the last game, although Gunner Romney certainly wasn’t at 100 percent. Puka Nacua, who has earned the distinction of being the BYU receiver with the most game-breaking potential, appears to also have a good chance of playing.
Another aspect of the game that I would keep a close eye on is special teams. Although BYU has traditionally done well in that area, missed field goals and poor kick/punt coverage at times have really hurt the Cougars. More BYU miscues in that area could give Notre Dame a momentum boost in Saturday’s contest.
"IT'S TIME!!" pic.twitter.com/e9TqeCb0sw
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) October 3, 2022
With Notre Dame favored by 3.5 as of Tuesday afternoon, what do you expect to see Saturday evening at Allegiant Stadium? And what part of Las Vegas are you most looking forward to?
I think I’m one of many who are still trying to figure out exactly what the 2022 Irish are. Notre Dame looked pretty good in the loss at Ohio State and the win over North Carolina, but not that good in the loss to Marshall and the win over Cal. This is also the first long-distance trip for the Irish (almost three times as far as the trip to North Carolina), and that can be a challenge each team has to figure out. That said, this is a Notre Dame team that is coming off a good showing and an idle week, so I expect it to have figured some things out. It’s going to have some success on the ground and give BYU problems with its defense, but the Cougars won’t back down. I expect a close, exciting game that will be decided in the fourth quarter.
What I’m most looking forward to in Las Vegas is seeing the representation of both BYU and Notre Dame fans. I’ve spent quite a bit of time in the city, so I’m familiar with the lights and the atmosphere. I’m much more intrigued by the meeting of these two well-known schools and seeing the turnout. My experiences with most of the fans from both institutions have been overwhelmingly positive, so I anticipate a cordial yet competitive environment for the Shamrock Series battle.