Notre Dame’s Opponents: A path to the Cotton Bowl, wanted or not

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Once every three years, Notre Dame’s chances of making a New Year’s Six bowl are greatly diminished by the planned rotation of the College Football Playoff semifinals. This is such a year, though the greater reduction in odds certainly came when the Irish inexplicably lost to Stanford in mid-October.

Rather than rehash the exact struggle every three years, a quick WordPress search three years into the past brings it up quickly, four days shy of exactly three years ago.

“Half the New Year’s Six bowls have conference contracts while the remaining three pull from the rest of the top 12 when not hosting semifinals. The 2019 anomaly, one that will next appear in 2022, is that both the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl are hosting semifinals, leaving only one true at-large opening available, guaranteed to face the highest-ranked Group of Five team.”

The Big 12 and the ACC may both jump teams over No. 18 Notre Dame (7-3) into the Sugar and Orange Bowls, respectively, if things go as one would expect this season. But there is one exact scenario in which maybe the Irish land in the Cotton Bowl (Jan. 2, 2023), though some may prefer not to face the best of the Group of Five, presumably the AAC champion.

Obviously, Notre Dame needs to beat No. 7 USC to finish the regular season, but let’s clarify that: The Irish need to beat the eventual Pac-12 champion Trojans.

That distinction implies both No. 12 Oregon and No. 10 Utah will end up behind Notre Dame in the final rankings, while also buoying the Irish claim, which will be needed. Upsetting the champion of two Power Five conferences will garner notice, and it is already guaranteed Notre Dame beat the ACC winner.

Secondly, a 12-1 TCU needs to win the Big 12.

That suggests the No. 4 Horned Frogs wil lose either at Baylor or against Iowa State, but then win the Big 12 and claim the bid to the Sugar Bowl. No. 15 Kansas State would fall behind the Irish with certainty.

Those two bold sentences should have Notre Dame in position to reach the Cotton Bowl, naturally jumping No. 17 Washington and No. 14 Mississippi. No. 16 UCLA would fall behind the Irish after losing to USC. If keeping track, No. 13 and No. 11 have not been discussed. The former is North Carolina, which jumps into the Orange Bowl in this template if it loses to No. 9 Clemson in the ACC title game, or vice versa. (The other reaches the Playoff, thanks to TCU, No. 3 Michigan, No. 6 LSU and No. 7 USC all losing.)

Then there is No. 11 Penn State.

That’s why “should” was italicized. The Nittany Lions head to Rugers and face Michigan State; a loss would render this wonder moot. But if Penn State finishes 10-2, despite not having any wins over top-20 teams while Notre Dame would, after winning in Los Angeles, have three, the Nittany Lions could snag that Cotton Bowl bid. Even this very exact scenario would require the selection committee to reconsider a ranking. Otherwise, …

Of course, none of this will matter in three years. By then, the 12-team Playoff will be more likely than not, and the question would be if the Irish could claw their way into those rankings. A win at USC would probably be enough.

Boston College (3-7): The Eagles upset No. 16 North Carolina State last week, even though they rushed for a net of negative-one yard on 23 carries. Rather than continue pointing out how ravaged Boston College’s offensive line is by injuries and once again point out this space’s most-coveted stat, that the unofficial official Notre Dame record for team sacks in a game is nine, last done in Lou Holtz’s final game, let’s delve into another bowl scenario sparked by mentioning North Carolina State.

The Wolfpack is struggling, clearly, without star quarterback Devin Leary. If evaluating a player’s value by how his team struggles without him, Leary should be a hot commodity this offseason.

But for a moment, grant the possibility that North Carolina State could beat North Carolina to end the season. Then, if the Heels upset Clemson in the ACC championship game, there may be another path to the Cotton Bowl for Notre Dame. This is, essentially, the same suggestion as 12-1 Big 12 champion TCU, but instead it is, 11-2 ACC champion North Carolina.

The question would remain, Notre Dame or Penn State?

Anyway, the Eagles head to South Bend (2:30 ET; NBC) as 20.5-point underdogs with a combined point total Over/Under of 44.5, as of midday Wednesday. A 32-11 result, so to speak, would be the first time the Irish have fallen short of 35 points since their last loss, Oct. 15 against Stanford.

No. 7 USC (9-1): The Trojans avoided a lookahead worry by demolishing Colorado, 55-17, on Friday, but the victory cost USC, too. Oregon transfer running back Travis Dye suffered a season-ending injury. He leads the Trojans with 884 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

USC needs to adapt quickly without him, favored by only 1.5 points against UCLA (8 ET; FOX).

No. 2 Ohio State (10-0): The Buckeyes beat up on Tom Allen and Indiana, 56-14, and will now presumably do the same to Maryland (3:30 ET; ABC), favored by only 27.5. The Terrapins have an explosive offense, but that number feels low, given the only teams to stay within four touchdowns of Ohio State this season have been Notre Dame, Penn State and weather-aided Northwestern. Maryland is not going to have the benefit of a region-wide storm.

Marshall (6-4): The Herd beat Appalachian State, 28-21, again underscoring how Marshall should have been in Sun Belt contention this season but struggled with little reason through a midseason lull. To further that sentiment, the Herd is favored by 4.5 at Georgia Southern this week (6 ET; ESPN+). Bluntly, if Marshall had not let Coastal Carolina jump out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead in late October, eventually a 24-13 loss, the Herd would be heading to the Sun Belt title game.

Cal (3-7): Cal fired some assistant coaches after losing at Oregon State, 38-10, the kind of move that suggests Bears head coach Justin Wilcox expects to be back next season, logically, since he signed an extension last offseason.

Please find anything better to do than to watch Stanford at Cal (5:30 ET; P12) this weekend, with the Bears favored by 4.5 points.

No. 13 North Carolina (9-1): The Heels host Georgia Tech this week, favored by three touchdowns (5:30 ET; ESPN2), after just racing by Wake Forest and burgeoning sophomore quarterback Drake Maye’s Heisman candidacy. Running up the score may further those trophy thoughts.

BYU (5-5): The Cougars enjoyed a late idle week and now may as well delight in another, hosting FCS-level Utah Tech. (You may better know Utah Tech by its past name, Dixie State, changed for obvious and good reasons.)

This late reprieve in BYU’s schedule comes as a result of being an independent, a worry the Cougars will not have after this season.

Stanford (3-7): The Cardinal was laughed at by Utah, 42-7, last week, and if there ever was a time to put faith in Cal …

UNLV (4-6): The Rebels lost to Fresno State, 37-30, and will now actually get plenty of eyeballs this week, the visiting team in the Hawaii Test, as late-night college football fans prefer to call it. If you really want to watch (11 ET), with UNLV favored by 11, you need to download the Team1 Sports app on a mobile device or tablet. It is free, but only available via that app. (Then, this scribe typically mirrors his phone on a TV screen.)

Syracuse (6-4): If a team starts the season 6-0 and then is 6-4 and a 10-point underdog at Wake Forest this week (8 ET; ACCN), was it ever genuinely 6-0 to start with? Obviously, things have gone from bad to worse for the Orange, barely a speed bump for Florida State last week, losing 38-3.

No. 9 Clemson (9-1): The Tigers kept their Playoff hopes alive by beating Louisville 31-16, a score made closer by the Cardinals crossing the goal line as time literally expired.

Clemson welcomes the shell of Miami this week, a game ESPN is broadcasting at 2:30 ET solely because of name-brand value, assuredly. The Tigers are favored by 19, so let’s assume the win and then ponder how viable Clemson’s path to the Playoff is.

Beating North Carolina in the ACC championship should jump the Tigers over No. 8 Alabama.
If No. 7 USC loses to UCLA, Notre Dame or in the Pac-12 title game, it’ll fall.
No. 6 LSU should lose to No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game.
No. 4 TCU is unlikely to win out, though it could. But if it loses just one of three, it’ll fall behind Clemson.
No. 3 Michigan or No. 2 Ohio State is assured a loss, and the committee is more likely to drop the Wolverines a couple extra spots.

All those likelihoods would conceivably have the Tigers as the No. 4 seed facing Georgia.

Could those flawed conference champion thoughts apply to Clemson, as well, to spur Notre Dame into the Cotton Bowl? Yes, but Miami and Georgia Tech do not make it a reality worth discussing.

Navy (3-7): The Midshipmen head to No. 20 Central Florida as 16.5-point underdogs. More notably, few first quarters will be as well-watched as this one, kicking at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2.

GAMES PERTINENT TO THESE CONCEIVABLE COTTON BOWL THOUGHTS
12 ET — TCU (-2.5) at Baylor on FOX
3:30 ET — Penn State (-19.0) at Rutgers
8 ET — USC (-1.5) at UCLA on FOX

Drew Pyne to transfer from Notre Dame; Tyler Buchner reportedly a bowl possibility

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Notre Dame may start its third quarterback of the season in its bowl game after junior Drew Pyne announced he will transfer from the program on Friday. A graduate, Pyne has three seasons of eligibility remaining.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel first reported Pyne’s intention to transfer, with Pyne soon thereafter taking to Twitter to confirm as much.

“One of my proudest honors is to have been a student-athlete at the University of Notre Dame,” Pyne wrote. “… It’s time for me to take on a new challenge, and I will be entering the transfer portal.”

Pyne took over as the Irish starter after sophomore Tyler Buchner suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the second week of the season. Pyne went 8-2 as a starter, completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,021 yards and 22 touchdowns this season.

His final action at Notre Dame may have been Pyne’s best game of his career, throwing for 318 yards and three touchdowns at USC while completing 23 of 26 passes, the second-most accurate game in Irish history.

He appeared in two games in 2021, stepping in for Jack Coan when he struggled against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. Keeping Pyne to minimal appearances in 2021 was intentional, preserving a season of eligibility for him.

That eligibility will now be used elsewhere.

Without Pyne, Notre Dame will have freshman Steve Angeli and possibly Buchner available in the bowl game, a location and opponent to be announced on Sunday. Football Scoop’s John Brice reported Friday afternoon that Buchner will play in the bowl game, though perhaps that optimism should be measured throughout practice this month.

Regardless, the Irish are expected to pursue an incoming transfer quarterback this month. With names like Texas’ Hudson Card and Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong already in the transfer portal, Notre Dame will have a few options to chase.

That is why Pyne’s transfer makes sense, even if he spoke earnestly about the bowl game following that 38-27 loss in Los Angeles.

“I think we have a lot to play for,” he said. “We’re going to be in a bowl game, I want to send all the seniors out the right way. We have a lot to play for. We have another game, I’m going to prepare as hard as I can for that and finish the season off on a positive note.”

Reversing course from those words is understandable given they came minutes after a competitive game, and the last week has shown Pyne how quickly the quarterback transfer market will move.

In the game of musical chairs that is quarterbacks moving across the country, Pyne waiting until after the bowl game to transfer could serve only to leave him with fewer destinations as options. Not that Pyne may have been looking at Iowa, but the fact that one Power Five starting gig appears to have already been filled by Michigan transfer Cade McNamara presumably underscored the rapid nature of this process.

Understandably, Pyne needs to make the most of this opportunity, coming off a strong season as Notre Dame’s starter but knowing he is unlikely to start for the Irish in 2023. Depending on the level of transfer joining the Irish and Buchner’s health, it was distinctly possible Pyne would be Notre Dame’s third quarterback next year.

For someone who grew up as a Notre Dame fan, specifically a Brady Quinn fan, assuredly this decision was not an easy one for Pyne.

He had a lengthy and notable offer sheet coming out of high school, but Pyne at his best this season would not draw interest from the likes of Texas A&M, Alabama and LSU as he did three years ago. It may be more pertinent to point out he is a Connecticut native, so schools in the northeast could be most logical for his landing spot.

The Irish should also have quarterback commit Kenny Minchey in the pecking order this spring, expected to sign with Notre Dame on Dec. 21 when the early signing period begins.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame’s QB room creates a friendly trust that has been crucial to Pyne’s success
Notre Dame 99-to-0: No. 10 Drew Pyne, junior quarterback

Notre Dame adds a fourth receiver commit to recruiting class, helping a roster need

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Notre Dame is addressing its most glaring roster deficiency with a numbers approach. The Irish had only five true scholarship receivers for much of this season, a number they will nearly match in next year’s freshman class alone after adding a fourth receiver commitment on Thursday. Consensus three-star receiver Kaleb Smith (Rick Reedy High School; Frisco, Texas) announced he will join Notre Dame’s class, and he should sign with the Irish on Dec. 21 when the early signing period begins.

Smith was committed to Texas Tech for more than nine months before he backed off that pledge in early November. Marcus Freeman does not welcome official visitors who are committed to other programs, so if Smith wanted to take an official visit to South Bend to watch Notre Dame play Clemson, he needed to open up his recruitment.

The Irish 35-13 win against the then-No. 4 Tigers assuredly helped tip the scales away from his homestate Texas Tech.

Otherwise, Smith has hardly been recruited by anyone. The only other Power Five program to chase him was Baylor when current Notre Dame receivers coach Chansi Stuckey was there.

Listed at only 6-foot and 168 pounds, it is easy to pencil in Smith as a slot receiver, but he is also willing to go up in the air to get the ball. His highlight footage features him repeatedly and astonishingly open.

His size, or lack thereof, will make Smith unique among the quartet of incoming signees. By snagging four receivers in this class, the Irish are proactively fixing an undeniable roster problem. In last year’s Fiesta Bowl, Notre Dame had only four receivers available. Through most of this season, in part due to injuries to Avery Davis and Joe Wilkins, the Irish had a total of six receivers available, including former walk-on Matt Salerno.

While Braden Lenzy will not return for the Irish in 2023, current sophomores Jayden Thomas, Deion Colzie and Lorenzo Styles should all come back, along with current freshman Tobias Merriweather. With these four commitments, a position group of eight may allow Notre Dame to have a genuine two-deep.

If signing four receivers in a class and seven in two years seems like an unsustainable influx, keep in mind two things. First of all, the Irish desperately need to find receiver depth. Lenzy was famously and admittedly exhausted at the end of that Fiesta Bowl faceplant 11 months ago. One more injury this season would have further crippled Notre Dame’s passing game in 2022. Secondly, the one-time transfer allowance will make departures from the program both more common and more alluring to the players. Natural attrition will occur.

RELATED READING: A third four-star receiver commitment, Jaden Greathouse, elevates Notre Dame’s class of 2023 from good to Great
Four-star receiver Rico Flores Jr.’s commitment gives Notre Dame some receiver hope for 2023
Four-star Texas receiver Braylon James gives Notre Dame needed offensive piece in class of 2023

CB Cam Hart out for Notre Dame’s bowl game, but will return in 2023

Notre Dame v North Carolina
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Perhaps earlier than expected, Notre Dame has already received good news this offseason. Senior cornerback Cam Hart will return for a fifth year in South Bend, though he will not put on pads for the Irish in any bowl game, he announced Tuesday evening.

“Due to a shoulder injury that I sustained during the Boston College Game [sic], I could not participate in our final regular season game and will not be able to participate in this year’s bowl game,” Hart wrote on Twitter. “Consequently, I believe my time here isn’t necessarily complete. Choosing to attend the University of Nore Dame has been the best decision I’ve ever made in my entire life.

“In light of that, I’ve decided to return for a fifth season and look forward to taking the field with my brothers in 2023!”

Hart’s 2023 return should give the Irish four returning cornerbacks with starting experience, only fifth-year nickel back Tariq Bracy a notable departure from this year’s cornerbacks group.

Note: The use of “should” is not meant to imply anything about other possibilities. The conditional verb is chosen as recognition of the constantly changing rosters in college football in 2022.

Hart took part in Notre Dame’s Senior Day festivities before facing Boston College, which suggested he was at least considering jumping to the NFL. This quick announcement indicates the injury ruled out that thought process, though the injury had plagued him at points earlier in the season.

A shoulder injury first flared up for Hart this year in the spring of 2022, costing him spring practices. A concern had previously cost him some of 2019, as he adapted from playing receiver in high school. He nonetheless played in 11 games in 2022, starting 10 and making 25 tackles with three for loss and breaking up four passes.

His passes defensed fell from nine in 2021, along with two interceptions, in part because opposing quarterbacks were less enticed to test the increasingly-experienced cornerback. His 6-foot-2 ½ length made Hart something just short of a shutdown cornerback.

With current freshman Benjamin Morrison surging to close this season and classmate Jaden Mickey stepping in for Hart at USC, Notre Dame should enjoy a plethora of tested cornerbacks in 2023. (Current junior Clarence Lewis is the aforementioned fourth.)

In many respects, this will allow the Irish defense to begin the 2023 season with the same calm it had in 2022, when Hart, Lewis and Bracy provided experienced pass defense.

“You have three older veteran corners that can really play at any moment, which makes you feel good,” head coach Marcus Freeman said in August. “Those three guys can play those two corner spots and I don’t feel there will be a drop off with any of them.”

There are a few key decisions left on Notre Dame’s defense — most notably, defensive end Justin Ademilola and safety Brandon Joseph could return in 2023 — but most of them may come after any Irish bowl game. Hart’s choice was presumably expedited by his apparent exclusion from the bowl game due to this injury.

HART CAREER STATISTICS
2020: 8 games; 3 tackles, 2 passes defended.
2021: 13 games, 10 starts; 42 tackles with four for loss, 9 passes defended and two interceptions.
2022: 11 games, 10 starts; 25 tackles with three for loss, 4 passes defended.

RELATED READING: Notre Dame 99-to-0: No. 5 Cam Hart, senior cornerback, second-year starter

Things We Learned: Notre Dame’s offensive shortcomings again highlighted by an explosive counterpart

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 26 Notre Dame at USC
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There are two ways to look at USC’s 38-27 win against Notre Dame on Saturday, and they both tie back to the Trojans’ being the best Irish measuring stick.

USC beat Notre Dame in a way that underscores how short-handed the Irish always were this season. When Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams began to cement his status as the Heisman frontrunner with a performance that will be long remembered, Notre Dame had no way to consistently counter him.

“We didn’t stop them,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said simply enough.

Without the offensive skill position players needed to match Williams’ explosive play for explosive play, Notre Dame needed its defense to play perfectly, clearly an unfair ask against a Lincoln Riley offense.

“USC is a great team,” Irish quarterback Drew Pyne said. “That was a really good team we played out there. They’re going to go on and do great things for the rest of their season. Caleb Williams is a great player.”

If the Irish had not had junior tight end Michael Mayer — eight catches on nine targets for 98 yards and two touchdowns — they may not have been able to stay in even vague distance of the Trojans. Three heaves to Deion Colzie gained 75 yards and three first downs, but each felt like Pyne was hoping more than anything else.

Notre Dame still made it a game, but the discrepancy in offensive playmakers stood out in Los Angeles on Saturday night.

And while both programs will undergo some turnover — most notably Mayer for the Irish; receiver Jordan Addison and running back Austin Jones will both likely be at the next level next year, among Trojans’ contributors this weekend — Notre Dame will need to close that gap to compete with USC next season.

The variance of a schedule may keep the Irish from too staunchly improving on their 8-4 record this year, but a certainty is that Williams will be ready to dazzle again in South Bend on Oct. 14, 2023.

Notre Dame right now does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with such a dynamic attack. As soon as the Irish gifted the Trojans chances to take a lead, their running game was mitigated and Notre Dame’s best hopes were reduced to Mayer and those heaves to Colzie.

Williams can dance his way through any defense, perhaps shy of Georgia’s. Even if the Irish secondary had been fully healthy, Williams’ rhythmic scrambles still would have broken down the defense. If Utah helms him in this weekend, it may be as much due to a USC letdown as it is to any Utes’ scheme. His stardom is an extreme, but this is college football in 2022, again aside from Georgia.

Many will instinctively point to Pyne’s shortcomings, ignoring how well he played in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. He made two mistakes, yes, but one of them (the cross-body interception) came as Notre Dame was more and more desperate and the other (the fumbled exchange) was in part a result of the Irish abandoning their ground game as they fell further behind.

Pyne finished 23-of-26 for 318 yards and three touchdowns. Every version of breaking down those stats yields praise for Pyne. A reality of a loss and a reality when the opposing quarterback broke through as a national star, no time was spent in postgame press conferences discussing Pyne’s efficient night.

But it was, regardless.

His final incompletion, the interception from Notre Dame’s own red zone, also overshadowed the second-most accurate day in Irish passing history, but it was an understandable mistake. Notre Dame was trailing by two scores with only five minutes remaining. Wasting a play on a throwaway was low on Pyne’s priority list.

If Pyne had established more of a season-long rapport with Colzie, maybe he sees him down the left sideline as highlighted by Kirk Herbstreit on the broadcast. If Braden Lenzy is a bit less worn down by a season-long receiver shortage, maybe he is able to charge into Pyne’s ill-advised pass rather than try to settle in for a low catch. If … maybe, if … maybe.

Only twice this season has USC managed as few as 31 genuine points — discounting the short-field touchdown in the final three minutes courtesy of Pyne’s pick, though not all that necessary given the Trojans fell short of 40 points just twice in their first 11 games. Oregon State and Washington State had the luxuries of facing Williams before he had reached the peak of his powers with this new, transfer-obtained complement of receivers.

The Irish defense did its part against USC. Notre Dame’s offense just could not match the star of the season.

Williams will star again next year. The Irish defense will most likely still be stout. Those truths this season will carry over. Notre Dame then has to wonder only if its offense can develop and/or find more playmakers, a known need this entire season and now the pressing concern entering the offseason, a need emphasized by the Trojans’ offense, the foe that should again define 2023.