Notre Dame last beat a ranked bowl opponent five years ago, going 0-3 in such moments since then. That Music City Bowl win against No. 17 LSU came courtesy of a last-minute heave from a backup quarterback, the Irish winning 21-17 as a one-point favorite.
If broadly considering Nashville to be in the Southeast, then today could hit all those same notes. No. 21 Notre Dame (8-4) is a slight favorite against No. 19 South Carolina (8-4) with a backup quarterback, so to speak, taking the Irish start this afternoon in Jacksonville.
TIME: 3:30 ET, the Gator Bowl coming right in the middle of a packed day of bowl games. In that respect, this game is not getting the billing it should among Irish fans. The demand for a “New Year’s Day” win turned into a demand for a “New Year’s Six” win after Notre Dame won that Music City Bowl, the goalposts for postseason success moving so as to assuage the frustrated.
Admittedly, the Playoff showings and last year’s Fiesta Bowl faceplant have not suggested the Irish are about to challenge for a national championship, but there are more pertinent bowl games than just that handful, and the Gator Bowl is among them.
Playing an SEC opponent coming off back-to-back top-10 upsets should warrant some attention, if muted due to the opt outs of Notre Dame’s best offensive player, best defensive player and 10-game starting quarterback.
TV: ESPN has the broadcast, with Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb in the booth and Alyssa Lang on the sideline. The Watch ESPN app should be your friend, if looking to stream this game.
PREVIEW: Opt outs obviously detract from bowl-game hype nowadays, and in the case of the Irish, that has meant tight end Michael Mayer, defensive end Isaiah Foskey and quarterback Drew Pyne will not be on the field for Notre Dame.
Statistically, that is 67 catches for 809 yards and nine touchdowns, 45 tackles with 14 for loss including 11 sacks, one forced fumble and two blocked kicks, and 2,021 passing yards, 108 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns lost.
And yet, the Irish have lost less in these regards than the Gamecocks, down 10 or 11 starters heading into this afternoon.
That plays a part in explaining why Notre Dame has been favored since this matchup was announced. If both teams were at full strength, South Carolina would likely be favored by a field goal. Instead, the Irish are favored by 3.5 points with a combined point total Over/Under of 50.5.
PREDICTION: Illness communicated from daycare to Christmas celebrations has slowed this space this week, including delaying this last preview. Unfortunate and frustrating as that has been, it has unintentionally created a parallel to another delayed preview earlier in the season, though that delay came with a far less excusable reasoning.
When Notre Dame went to Syracuse in late October as a short underdog, this space argued the Orange would win by a touchdown.
“The reality comes down to Syracuse being a more complete football team, led by a veteran quarterback. … If this game comes down to the final few minutes, as a low-scoring, tight affair is prone to, Pyne’s disastrous-in-all-facets two-minute drill against Stanford leaves little faith Notre Dame can win late on the road.”
South Carolina is not a more complete football team than the Irish, but it is led by a veteran quarterback in Spencer Rattler. In his last two games, he has thrown for 798 combined yards and eight touchdowns while completing 72.4 percent of his passes, sparking the Gamecocks to blow out then-No. 6 Tennessee and slip by then-No. 10 Clemson.
Freeman notes Jayson Ademilola won't play due to injury. Brandon Joseph practiced all week but is a game-time decision.
— Observer Sports (@ObserverSports) December 29, 2022
“When you prepare to play a team, you want to prepare to play the best, right?” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Thursday. “What you’re seeing them put on film, them being their best, I think the last two games they’ve shown that they can beat any team in the country. That’s our preparation. That’s our challenge. That’s the team we’re going to face. We’ll see what happens tomorrow, but that’s what our mental preparation has to be.”
Pyne is no longer around to botch any needed two-minute drill, but sophomore Tyler Buchner has never starred in one, either. After missing 10 games and already being broadly inexperienced reading defenses, banking on him in a clutch moment would be quite a leap of faith.
So in those regards, the parallels to the Syracuse matchup bode poorly for Notre Dame. But there is another piece of that preview that stands out.
“Lest the Irish gain six yards per rush attempt …”
Notre Dame gained 4.7 yards per rush attempt, after accounting for one sack and two kneel downs. And those 53 carries were enough to knock the Orange on their heels.
Buchner’s return should lead to such an emphasis once again, against a defense that fares even worse than Syracuse’s against the ground game, despite the Orange already being ravaged by the Irish this season.
South Carolina rushing yards allowed per game: 192.4, No. 112 in the country.
Rushing attempts against per game: 39.7, No. 102 in the country.
Average yards allowed per rush: 4.86
Average expected points added by each opponent rush: 0.19
Syracuse rushing yards allowed per game: 144.5, No. 58 in the country.
Rushing attempts against per game: 38.7, No. 92 in the country.
Average yards allowed per rush: 3.73
Average expected points added by each opponent rush before the Orange bowl game: 0.081
In all regards, Syracuse’s rush defense is better than South Carolina’s, yet Notre Dame bullied the Orange.
Freeman continues to emphasize winning the bowl game is more important than developing pieces for 2023, perhaps most notable when it comes to testing out Buchner’s reads of defensive coverages.
“The most important thing is winning and that’s going to give us the most momentum as we continue to move forward,” Freeman said. “As I told the players yesterday in our team meetings, our focus is right now. Our focus is finishing the season off right now and the right way.”
If believing that approach, then it seems obvious the Irish should lean on their ground game again, particularly with a dual-threat quarterback and no consensus first-team All-American at tight end.
And when Notre Dame leans on its ground game, it tends to fare pretty well. See: That Syracuse win.
Notre Dame 31, South Carolina 21
(Spread: 2-10; Over/Under: 3-9; Straight-up: 6-6)
FROM NOTRE DAME’S GAME NOTES
— “Football Outsiders features a ranking of NCAA special teams units across the country and the Gator Bowl features two of the top six units in the nation. Top-ranked South Carolina has blocked three kicks this season and is among the top six in the country in kick returns, punt returns and net punting. The Irish are sixth in the country according to Football Outsiders, first in the nation in blocked punts and 25th in net punting.”
— “Notre Dame rushed for 281 yards in the victory over Boston College – the team’s final home game of the season – which was the sixth time the Irish surpassed 200 yards rushing in 2022. Notre Dame is 105-10 (.913) since 1996 when it rushes for 200 yards or more.”
INSIDE THE IRISH
— Gator Bowl prep can wait for Notre Dame, aside from at quarterback
— Michael Mayer headed to the NFL, opts out of Notre Dame’s appearance in the Gator Bowl
— Isaiah Foskey heads to NFL, joining Michael Mayer in opting out of Notre Dame’s Gator Bowl appearance
— A quick look at South Carolina & Spencer Rattler before Notre Dame focuses on them
— Short- and long-term QB pictures come into focus for Notre Dame
— Things To Learn: 2023 lessons should be apparent in Notre Dame’s Gator Bowl matchup with South Carolina
OUTSIDE READING
— Notre Dame vs South Carolina Prediction: Gator Bowl Odds and Picks
— The 12-team CFP’s to-do list for 2026 and beyond: After expansion, still much to resolve
— The psychedelic toad that inspired ‘deep fried’ memes and cast a spell on TCU fans
— Dolphins activate Liam Eichenberg
